Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Bilal Hafeez
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We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

  1. Ep. 350: Tomasz Nadrowski on China's Mineral War, Western Supply Chain Gaps, and Global Resilience

    1日前

    Ep. 350: Tomasz Nadrowski on China's Mineral War, Western Supply Chain Gaps, and Global Resilience

    Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.  He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss: Geopolitics vs. the Commodity Cycle China's VAT Rebate and Value-Added Strategy Critical Choke Points: Rare Earths, Graphite, and Gallium Regulatory Roadblocks and the Stigma of "Dirty" Mining The Abdication of Western Capital Markets Human Capital Gaps and the "Octogenarian Engineer" Problem Geoeconomic Pricing: Disincentivising New Capacity From "Just-in-Time" to "Just-in-Case" Production Japan's "House of Brick" Model for Resilience The Mineral War and the "Soul" of AI A Shift Toward Oligopolistic Competition

    49 分鐘
  2. Ep. 349: Nader Itayim on Iran's Regional War, the Hormuz Choke Point, and Global Energy Disruption

    3月13日

    Ep. 349: Nader Itayim on Iran's Regional War, the Hormuz Choke Point, and Global Energy Disruption

    Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss: Inevitable Escalation with Iran  Iran's Decentralised Resilience The Rise of Mojtaba Regional Retaliation Strategy The Hormuz Choke Point Modern Tanker War Risks 8 Million Barrels Offline Limits of the Global SPR Sentiment-Driven Volatility Houthi Autonomy and the Red Sea

    1 小時 2 分鐘
  3. Ep. 348: Alex Campbell on Commodity Diversification, AI strategies, and the Moneyball Approach

    3月6日

    Ep. 348: Alex Campbell on Commodity Diversification, AI strategies, and the Moneyball Approach

    Alex has 20 years of experience at the intersection of finance and data. He has been a global macro investor at firms like Bridgewater Associates and a proprietary volatility trader at Lehman Brothers. Prior to his career as a data-driven speculator, Alex received an MBA from Stanford Business School, an MPhil in Economics (Game Theory) from the University of Oxford, and a BA (Hons) in Economics from McGill University. In this podcast, we discuss: Fantasy Baseball to Prop Trading Diversification as the "Free Lunch" Gold vs. The Chinese Credit Bubble Silver as the "Money that Generates Electricity" The "Long API, Short Slides" Thesis China's Sceptical Data Copper vs. Iron Divergence The Future of Systematic Investing

    57 分鐘
  4. Ep. 347: Raphaël Gallardo on Austrian Economics, Wobbling AI Bubbles, and Trump Risk Parity

    2月27日

    Ep. 347: Raphaël Gallardo on Austrian Economics, Wobbling AI Bubbles, and Trump Risk Parity

    Raphaël Gallardo is Chief Economist within the Cross-Asset team at Carmignac. Carmignac is a leading European investment management boutique established in 1989, with over EUR 40 bn in assets under management. Raphaël joined them in 2018. He started his career in 1997 at BNP Paribas, where he spent ten years as a Quantitative Analyst within the Risk Department, a Country-risk Economist, a Financial Engineer specialising in interest rate risk, and ultimately a cross-asset strategist. In 2007, he joined Axa IM as Head of Macroeconomic Research and moved to Rothschild & Cie Gestion in 2012 to occupy the same position. From 2013 to 2018, he was Cross-Asset Strategist at Ostrum Asset Management. Raphaël holds an Engineering Degree from École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris. In this podcast, we discuss: Austrian Economics Framework Three "Wobbling" Bubbles The "Sad" AI Bubble Trump Risk Parity Portfolio Spain's "Virtuous Circle" France's Fiscal Existential Risk Japan's Vicious Circle China's Dual Economy Death of the Risk-Free Asset 2026–2027 Outlook

    46 分鐘
  5. Ep. 346: Alex Gurevich on US Return to Zero Rates, AI Productivity, and Managing Portfolio Paralysis

    2月20日

    Ep. 346: Alex Gurevich on US Return to Zero Rates, AI Productivity, and Managing Portfolio Paralysis

    Alex Gurevich is the founder of HonTe Investments. After earning a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago, he leveraged his passion for strategic gaming into a lucrative Wall Street career. He has been hailed by The Wall Street Journal as the star trader of J.P. Morgan, where he served as Managing Director in charge of global macro trading and, in 2020, was leading HonTe's macro strategy when he ranked second by net return according to BarclayHedge. Alex is the bestselling author of The Next Perfect Trade and The Trades of March 2020. In this podcast, we discuss:  The 10-Year "Test of Time" Retrospective The "Swim with the Tide" Framework   Rethinking "Tight Stops" in Risk Management   Strategies to Overcome Portfolio Paralysis   Betting on the "Necessary" vs. "Sufficient"   Japan's Search for the "Perfect Trade"   The Case for the Fed Returning to 0%   AI-Driven Technological Displacement   Energy as the "Bottleneck" for AI Growth   Evolving Views on Option Usage

    42 分鐘
  6. Ep. 345: Marc Elovitz on Private Market Evolution, Crypto's Regulatory Shift, and AI Explainability

    2月13日

    Ep. 345: Marc Elovitz on Private Market Evolution, Crypto's Regulatory Shift, and AI Explainability

    Marc Elovitz is Global Head of Investment Management Regulatory at McDermott Will & Schulte – a leading global law firm. Marc advises private fund managers on running their businesses consistent with all relevant laws, regulations and legal requirements. Marc's cutting-edge work also covers the latest trends of interest to private funds, including blockchain technology and digital assets. He advises on the legal and regulatory considerations involving virtual and digital currency business initiatives and the blockchain technology behind them. In this podcast, we discuss: From Litigation to Regulation The Private Market Boom "Project Crypto" and Regulatory Harmonisation Beyond Digital Gold The Yield Obstacle in Stablecoins Future-Proofing Digital Assets The Trust Factor in Private Equity Solving the AI Explainability Crisis The Delaware Governance Battle Perspective through Fiction

    34 分鐘
  7. Ep. 344: Sean McGould on Multi-Strategy Investing, Trump 2.0, and the AI 'Digital Tool' Era

    2月6日

    Ep. 344: Sean McGould on Multi-Strategy Investing, Trump 2.0, and the AI 'Digital Tool' Era

    Sean McGould – the founder/CEO of the Lighthouse Group – an approximately $17 billion investment management firm. Prior to Lighthouse, Sean was the Director of the Outside Trader Investment Program for Trout Trading Management Company. Before joining Trout, he worked for Price Waterhouse in auditing and corporate finance. In this podcast we discuss:   The Multi-Strategy Investment Approach The Selective "War for Talent"  Adapting to Trump 2.0 Volatility  Targeting Real Returns vs Gold  AI: A Digital Tool, Not a Total Bubble  Redefining Value in the Digital Age  Japan's Shareholder Value Pivot  Centralised Planning Risks in China  Patience in Tight Credit Markets  The 2026 Macro Outlook  You can get more information on Sean's firm here  The commentary contained in the above article/podcast does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.

    33 分鐘
  8. Ep. 343: Srividya Jandhyala on Changing Corporate Behaviour to Geopolitical Risks, and 'The Great Disruption'

    1月30日

    Ep. 343: Srividya Jandhyala on Changing Corporate Behaviour to Geopolitical Risks, and 'The Great Disruption'

    Srividya Jandhyala is a professor of Management at ESSEC Business School in Singapore. Her research focuses on global strategy, geopolitics, and international business. She is the author of the best-selling book 'The Great Disruption: How Geopolitics is Changing Companies, Managers, and Work'. Before ESSEC, she was a Fung Global Fellow at Princeton University. She also served on the faculty of George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and she received her PhD in Management from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. In this podcast, we discuss: Geopolitics as a Structural Headwind  The End of the "Flat World"  Why Corporate Nationality Trumps Product  Lessons from Mining and Energy Sectors The Jenga Tower of Global Friction Sovereign AI and Geopolitical Tech China's "Singapore" Playbook The Erosion of the Rules-Based Order Localization and the "Societal License" to Operate The Shift from "Event-Based" Thinking

    35 分鐘
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We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

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