SemiAnalysis Weekly

Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin

Everything semiconductors and AI Covering the spectrum

  1. 1日前

    Ep. 044 - Is NVIDIA Over? Emergency Pod with ChinaTalk | Dylan Patel, Jordan Nanos, Jordan Schneider (ChinaTalk)

    Emergency pod. Hours after NVIDIA announced that Jensen Huang has resigned as CEO, with CFO Colette Kress named interim CEO, Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Dylan Patel (@dylan522p) and ChinaTalk's Jordan Schneider (@jordanschnyc). They get into why the MATCH Act matters more than RASA, how much compute China should be allowed to rent abroad, the smuggling cases around NVIDIA's supply chain, China's push onto domestic accelerators, whether NVIDIA can execute without its founder, and who should run it next. Then it goes off the rails. Read the article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/nvidia-and-the-world-without-jensen ChinaTalk: https://www.chinatalk.media 0:00 Jensen Is Out 2:04 MATCH Act vs RASA 5:06 Why Not Ban Everything 9:21 Will China Retaliate 15:54 The Smuggling Evidence 21:09 China's Domestic Chips 23:08 Flip the Table 29:03 Open Models and Talent 31:10 NVIDIA Without Jensen 41:46 Who Runs NVIDIA Next 45:48 Closing Thoughts 47:56 The Nationalization Debate The indictments discussed are allegations; defendants are presumed innocent. Opinions are the speakers' own. Not financial advice.

  2. 11月4日

    Ep. 043 - The Midterms and the 2028 Datacenter Buildout (Datacenters) | Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Jordan Nanos, Maya Barkin, Wayne Ma

    Recorded Election Day morning, before any results: SemiAnalysis’s model has about 62 GW of US datacenter additions in 2028, most not yet under construction and sitting in states electing a governor. Texas alone is close to 30%. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Maya Barkin (@mayabarkin), Wayne Ma (@waynema) and Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) on why 2027 is largely locked in, why the backlash crosses party lines, and how developers can win over their neighbors. Since recording: the AP called Texas for Gina Hinojosa, who would pause datacenter permitting, and Georgia for Keisha Lance Bottoms, and Democrats took a 3-2 majority on Georgia’s Public Service Commission, which sets power rates. (As of Nov 4, 2:35 PM ET.) Read the article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/the-datacenter-backlash-goes-bipartisan 0:00 Intro 0:54 The 2028 Buildout 5:32 Pause vs. Conditions 10:03 Bipartisan Backlash 14:37 Grid Risk 16:30 Tax Incentives 19:51 Texas 24:34 Risks to 2027 30:23 Georgia 32:31 Federal Outlook 35:20 Winning Over Neighbors 42:04 What We're Watching

  3. 11月3日

    Ep. 042 - GDPx: The Benchmark for Frontier AI

    SemiAnalysis just launched GDPx, a benchmark built with 14 specialized data partners across 11 domains where frontier intelligence earns the highest returns. Even the best model scores just 12%. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Max Kan (@maxkan) and Andrew Megalaa (@AndrewMegalaa) to explain why most popular benchmarks are broken, the difference between difficult and unfair tasks, how a real private equity deal room became a finance environment, why binary grading still matters, and what the leaderboard says about Opus 5.5, GPT-6 Astra and Gemini 4 Carbon. Explore GDPx: https://gdpx.semianalysis.com Read the article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/gdpx-measuring-frontier-model-capabilities Want your model evaluated or to partner on a future version? gdpx@semianalysis.com 0:00 Cold Open 0:10 Launch Week Chaos 4:02 Broken Benchmarks 5:15 Difficult vs. Unfair 7:33 Building GDPx 9:25 Frontier Domains 11:02 The 11 Domains 14:12 Domain Experts 15:00 Models vs. Experts 19:36 Model Behavior 20:44 The Leaderboard 22:33 Cyber and Safety 24:32 Frontier vs. Day-to-Day 27:13 The Finance Task 31:27 Binary vs. Partial Grading 36:48 AI and Jobs 42:43 Quick Takes 43:44 Google's Comeback 47:25 Public vs. Private Tasks 49:52 What's Next

  4. 10月27日

    Ep. 041 - EMERGENCY: Anthropic’s S-1 Is Here (Tokenomics/ Markets) | Doug O’Laughlin, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Joey Brookhart, Jordan Nanos

    Anthropic filed its S-1: revenue per dollar of compute is up 5.2x since Q1 2025, a customer who spent $1 last year now spends $9, and incremental gross margins are running near 90%. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Doug O'Laughlin (@fabknowledge), Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Joey Brookhart (@SaasquatchC) break down profitability, the half trillion in compute commitments, customer concentration, the 2027 compute roadmap, and whether OpenAI can keep up. 0:00 Cold Open 0:53 Profitability 2:10 The Datacenter View 4:14 Compute Commitments 6:28 Incremental Margins 8:19 Customer Concentration 12:00 Top Customers 16:53 New Funding 18:54 Underpromise, Overdeliver 20:25 Elon and Neoclouds 25:14 Compute Efficiency 29:40 Can Anyone Catch Up? 33:26 Surprises and Runway 37:47 Market Reaction 39:02 Holiday Usage 42:56 Is OpenAI Cooked? 48:44 Government Revenue 50:45 Wrap-Up

  5. 10月23日

    Ep. 040 - ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool, and Its Patents Show How (AI Supply Chain) | Jordan Nanos, Howie, Sherry Zhang

    Every hybrid bonder on the market today brings the die to the wafer. ASML's patents bring the wafer to the die.Sherry Zhang and Howie join Jordan Nanos (@jordananos) to dig into the patents behind ASML's die-to-wafer hybrid bonder, why a track-based design could beat Besi on alignment and particle control, and why HBM won't adopt die-to-wafer hybrid bonding before 2029. The team also looks at how China is using hybrid bonding to keep scaling past its lithography limits, and what larger photomasks mean for High-NA EUV.Chapters:0:00 The Patent Tip-Off1:53 Hybrid Bonding 1014:06 Die-to-Wafer vs Wafer-to-Wafer5:43 Back End vs Front End8:05 Why HBM Waits Until 202913:45 Everything Comes to the Die18:26 Alignment and Cleanliness22:48 Bonding Instead of Shrinking25:49 China's Toolmakers Step Up28:25 Bigger Masks for High-NA33:29 Two Tool Stacks?Read the full article: ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/asml-is-building-a-hybrid-bonding

  6. 10月20日

    Ep. 039 - [EMERGENCY] Our Numbers Are "Insane." Here's the Proof. (Datacenters) | Jeremie Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, Jordan Nanos

    Brad Gerstner put our 43 gigawatt forecast for 2027 on All-In, then again in his BG2 sit-down with Jensen, and called it too aggressive. The consensus counter sits near 25 GW, built on moratorium headlines and grid connection fears. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Jeremie Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower), who have been tracking the same capacity curve since March 2024, and it has barely moved across every model revision. So they aren't cutting it. They're raising it. Read the article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/datacenters-2027-the-year-of-acceleration 0:00 Cold Open 1:17 The 2027 Forecast Debate 2:21 Model Track Record 5:27 Where the Pushback Comes From 8:16 Delays and Haircuts 12:31 The Top 40 Sites 15:23 Leading Indicators 20:40 Modular Builds 25:41 Chips vs Datacenters 27:53 Responding to Brad Gerstner

  7. 10月14日

    Ep. 038 - GLM 5.3 on AMD, NVIDIA, and Chinese Chips From Day One (InferenceX) | Kimbo Chen, Wenyao Gao, Jordan Nanos

    GLM 5.3 only attends to the tokens that matter. It still has to keep every one of them. Kimbo Chen (@kimbochen) and Wenyao Gao (@gao_wenyao) join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to dig into AMD catching NVIDIA on InferenceX, how post-training alone pushed an open-weight model within reach of Mythos, and whether Z.ai quietly tuned it for Chinese chips. The team also looks at how GLM 5.3 became a fallback when Claude and GPT refuse security work. Chapters: 0:00 Cold Open 0:37 Sparse Attention 101 4:46 HiCache and HiSparse 10:13 AMD Catches NVIDIA 12:54 Capacity vs Bandwidth 18:44 The Frankenstein Flash 20:09 Mythos-Class From China? 22:52 Post-Training Pipeline 32:32 Chinese Chips, Day One 39:54 GLM 5.4 and Beyond Read the full article: How GLM 5.3 Sparse Attention Affects HBM Memory Usage https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/sparse-savings-persistent-demand-inside-glm53

  8. 10月9日

    Ep. 037 - Who's Funding the $11 Trillion AI Buildout? (Capital Markets) | Dan Nishball, Jordan Nanos

    H100 rental prices went up, on a GPU that should be sliding down its depreciation curve. That curve is what lenders underwrite. Daniel Nishball (@dnishball) kicks off our new Compute Capital Markets group by following the money through Nvidia's $497B backstops, ClusterMAX as a credit signal, and whether each token is profitable. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) brings the rental data. AI debt is about to pass auto loans. 0:00 Opening 1:48 Nvidia's Backstop Universe 6:22 The $11T Funding Wall 17:25 Balance Sheet as a Service 26:27 ClusterMAX as Credit Risk 31:51 Why H100 Prices Rose 43:09 Token Profitability 58:05 You Can't Go Back 1:07:25 AI Debt vs Auto Loans 1:11:14 Inside Nvidia's Backstops

查看全部 (45)

關於

Everything semiconductors and AI Covering the spectrum

資料

  • 創作者
    Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin
  • 活躍年份
    2026年
  • 單集
    45
  • 分級
    兒童不宜
  • 版權
    © Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin
  • 節目網站
    SemiAnalysis Weekly

你可能也會喜歡