'Perspectives' by Escala

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'Perspectives' is a bi-weekly investment podcast brought to you by Escala. In a world cluttered with information, 'Perspectives' cuts through the noise to bring you insights and commentary on global financial markets, economics and geopolitical news and events. Hear our most up-to-date views straight from the Escala Investment Committee meeting room and learn how the CIO team incorporate macroeconomic views, central bank thinking and government policy into actionable investment ideas for our clients. As an economist and seasoned practitioner with both domestic and international investment experience, Escala CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views and observations to help you make sense of today's investment landscape. Join Tracey, and others at Escala, as they discuss the big issues affecting your investment portfolio and interview industry-leading voices in wealth management. For more information visit: escalapartners.com.au

  1. Episode 124 – Investing in a New World Order

    6 DAYS AGO

    Episode 124 – Investing in a New World Order

    In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about the release of Escala's The Agenda publication, what a shifting global order means for investors and how it is shaping the way Escala constructs portfolios. (0:52) This is the 7th edition now. Before we get into the details, remind us - what is The Agenda? Is this a tactical playbook for the next 12 months? (1:47) And that didn't just start yesterday, did it? Inequality has been building for some time in a number of countries – Australia and the US (3:07) So, markets recovered - but society fractured. You talk about this in The Agenda and describe it as a "bonfire of the vanities." (5:13) You could probably include the recent experience in Australia in that, with the breakdown in the marriage of the Liberal and National parties and before that the rise of the Teals. (5:52) So here we are in 2026. More minority governments, more fragile coalitions. More populist leaders. What are the consequences of all of this? (7:37) When you say politics is driving markets more, does that mean investors need to react to every tweet or headline? (9:02) Does adapting mean tweaking assumptions? Or is this a more fundamental change? (11:05) And portfolio construction? How are you thinking about that? (12:53) A clear example today is datacentres and power. Amazon can build a datacentre significantly faster than an energy company can supply the power to operate it. (13:54) You've described the gold chart recently as not a hockey stick but a right angle. Is inflation fear driving that? (15:12) You're becoming more nuanced, more inflation aware. Anything else? What about volatility? (16:49) So, this isn't about getting more defensive in portfolios?

    19 min
  2. Episode 123 – Was this Googles' DeepSeek moment?

    27/11/2025

    Episode 123 – Was this Googles' DeepSeek moment?

    In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about what could be Googles' DeepSeek moment – the launch of Gemini 3. If it is everything that ChatGPT isn't, what does this do to the promises made by OpenAI? (1:03) Let's start this week with what I'm calling the Nvidia check your airbags moment because the last fortnight has been incredibly volatile in markets. Whilst you are not alarmed by this you have been telling clients to check their airbags. (3:20) How has the narrative around AI changed? We hear a lot about the size of capital spending budgets from the likes of Nvidia and Microsoft etc but government seem to view it as more a national security priority. (6:29) I hear what you are saying – Gemini 3 does seem impressive. But why did this negatively affect the share price for Nvidia? Can't Nvidia supply chips to Google as easily as it does to OpenAI? (9:21) Let's move to the second theme of the week: monetary policy is becoming more challenging. Just when we had the fog of tariffs and the uncertainty of the government shutdown lifting, we now have less conviction in the path of monetary policy. (12:25) How dangerous is that? (13:45) Let's close with the third theme: fiscal policy is still loose in many places. The most intriguing twist is that Spain, long considered a fiscal problem child for Europe, now has a smaller budget deficit than Germany. Is politics playing a role here too. (15:40) But Germany isn't alone in this. Countries everywhere are reshoring manufacturing, redesigning supply chains, and pouring capital into energy, defence, and infrastructure. (17:01) Which brings us back to Japan where the credibility of the central bank is not the only thing being questioned. The bond and currency markets also have their eye on the fiscal experiment unfolding under the new Prime Minister Takaichi.  (19:39) A good reason to stay loose on the bars or for those of us who are part of the four-wheel crowd, check your airbags. Tracey, thank you as always…

    21 min
  3. Perspectives: Fund Manager Interview with Doug Tynan from GCQ Funds Management

    17/11/2025

    Perspectives: Fund Manager Interview with Doug Tynan from GCQ Funds Management

    In this episode, Escala Investment Analyst, David Bruty talks to Doug Tynan, Chief Investment Officer of GCQ Funds Management. Doug discusses GCQ's investment philosophy and the team's focus on quality industries and companies, how trade policy and the artificial intelligence theme is expressed in their current portfolio, and how Uber will prosper in a changing environment as robotaxis continue to be rolled out around the world.

    34 min
  4. Episode 122 – Why is gold rallying?

    22/10/2025

    Episode 122 – Why is gold rallying?

    In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about gold and how it has become a hedge against distrust. When money becomes too political to believe in, investors turn to what can't be printed. (1:35)  Let's start with AI. OpenAI's been in the headlines almost weekly - new partnerships, huge infrastructure deals, and some big numbers attached. But behind all of that excitement, there's a growing conversation about vendor financing and related-party transactions - essentially suppliers funding their own customers. You've been following this closely, Tracey. What's your take on it? (4:59) So in effect, the same interconnectedness that amplifies growth on the way up amplifies fragility on the way down. (7:43) Is the other risk though around whether the revenue that is being promised by some of these companies in some of these loans is being pulled forward. (8:50) So the concern would be the quality of the revenue - not necessarily the existence of financing itself. (9:19) You've said recently that gold has stopped being a hedge - and started being a referendum. What do you mean by that? (10:18) So you'd say this is more a vote of no confidence? (11:36) That really is interesting. We've built a system that depends on our faith in fiat, in this case, the US dollar, but we price our distrust in fiat in US dollars per ounce. (12:32) And what's the implication for portfolios? (14:17) Let's move to a related theme - risk management. You mentioned that a client asked you recently, "How do you think about risk when adding a new fund to the portfolio?" That's such an important question, particularly in times like these. (15:40) Right – and so even when allocations look different on paper, they can still be tied to the same global currents. How do you identify genuine diversification?

    18 min
  5. Episode 121 – AI power plays

    03/10/2025

    Episode 121 – AI power plays

    There are now more data centres being built in the US than office buildings. In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, looks at the political implications of data centre demand for energy. (00:56) That's the first move in nine months but it was widely anticipated. It was called a "risk management" move. What's your take? (03:03) Stephen Miran, a Trump-aligned recent appointee, has stirred the debate by advocating for aggressive rate cuts. He wanted a half point cut, not the quarter point that was consensus. (03:48) What does a less independent US central bank mean? (05:58) We have seen this challenge to central bank independence before haven't we. President Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low ahead of the 1972 election. (06:52) Trump is increasingly interfering in the operation of the market. It is strange to see the US government listed now as the third largest equity holder of Intel. So what's the playbook? How do investors position for this? (08:13)  Let's start with demand, because that's where Jensen Huang's comment lands hardest. When he says AI needs 100 times more power, what exactly is being measured here? (10:38) So this is real megawatts being pulled off the grid, and it's happening fast - faster than new supply can be created. (11:17) You've just described what looks like a classic market failure. In most sectors, when demand explodes, prices rise, and that price signal encourages more supply. But in power markets, the feedback loop seems broken. Why isn't the invisible hand working here? What's stopping utilities, or private investors, from rushing in to build more capacity and cash in on the higher demand from AI? (12:19) And that tightness shows up as rising prices for wholesale electricity and eventually household bills. So AI demand, if unmanaged, risks spilling into the broader economy as a cost-of-living issue.   (12:40) How are regulators starting to respond? Do you see the beginnings of more heavy-handed policy - where governments start deciding who gets power and at what price? (13:29) We have heard recently Pennsylvania is thinking about going its own way in what sounds like a break from the national approach. What exactly are they proposing, and what does it tell us about how fragmented U.S. energy policy might become? (14:20) So effectively, Pennsylvania is saying: "Come here, set up your data centres, and we'll make sure you have the power you need, even if it means going against the grain of national policy." (14:55) When I listen to all this, what I hear is that electricity is no longer just a background utility. It's becoming strategic - like oil was in the 20th century. Are we moving into an era where countries, and even states, treat power as a weapon of economic advantage? (15:40) So for investors, for policymakers, even for ordinary households - what does this mean? (16:22) Tracey, this has been eye-opening. AI isn't just a technology story - it's an energy story, and a policy story, and maybe even a political story if states start going their own way.

    18 min
  6. Perspectives: Fund Manager Interview with Roy Keenan from Yarra Capital

    29/09/2025 · VIDEO

    Perspectives: Fund Manager Interview with Roy Keenan from Yarra Capital

    In this episode, Escala Investment Analyst Holly Brenchley speaks with Roy Keenan, Co-Head of Fixed Income at Yarra Capital and Portfolio Manager of the Yarra Enhanced Income Fund, a core Australian credit strategy. Roy discusses the investment philosophy that underpins Yarra's approach, including its rigorous internal credit rating system, the importance of ESG and documentation analysis, as well as how the team captures attractive risk-adjusted returns within the changing Australian credit landscape.

    23 min
  7. Perspectives: In Conversation with Head of Equities Crispin Murray from Pendal

    22/09/2025

    Perspectives: In Conversation with Head of Equities Crispin Murray from Pendal

    In this episode, Escala Partners Investment Analyst David Bruty talks to Crispin Murray, Head of Equities at Pendal. Crispin talks to some of the key themes from August's reporting season in Australian equities, the heightened volatility that surrounded results and how this is providing opportunities for active managers such as Pendal, and the outlook for the year ahead.

    28 min
  8. Episode 120 – Choose your own line: Lessons from motorcycles

    07/09/2025

    Episode 120 – Choose your own line: Lessons from motorcycles

    In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, shares an important lesson when riding a motorcycle that can be applied to China's FOMO driven equity rally. (00:51) We had a client lunch in Newcastle this week. One of the topics of conversation was not surprisingly, AI. But the question was more around – is AI an era or a regime shift? (03:47) Political unrest seems to be on the rise at the moment. We are seeing protests in Sydney and Melbourne and other capital cities around the world protesting immigration among other things. Politics is always a difficult one to price. How do you and team think about this growing unrest? (06:56) What does this mean for investors? (09:97) One of the other points of discussion recently has been around how governments have become less global. What do you mean by that and what are the implications for investors? (12:18) Nvidia's earnings result last week was overshadowed a little by China's latest developments in AI. What can you tell us there? (15:08) Chinese equities are on a tear right now – they were one of the better performing markets in August. How much of this rise is based on the fundamentals around AI and how much is based on the FOMO trade – the fear of missing out. (17:23) It is common isn't it for Chinese equities to experience sentiment driven swings like this?

    21 min
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About

'Perspectives' is a bi-weekly investment podcast brought to you by Escala. In a world cluttered with information, 'Perspectives' cuts through the noise to bring you insights and commentary on global financial markets, economics and geopolitical news and events. Hear our most up-to-date views straight from the Escala Investment Committee meeting room and learn how the CIO team incorporate macroeconomic views, central bank thinking and government policy into actionable investment ideas for our clients. As an economist and seasoned practitioner with both domestic and international investment experience, Escala CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views and observations to help you make sense of today's investment landscape. Join Tracey, and others at Escala, as they discuss the big issues affecting your investment portfolio and interview industry-leading voices in wealth management. For more information visit: escalapartners.com.au

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