Forward Guidance Blockworks
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- Business
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket
(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far
(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect
(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises
(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can
(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?
(21:43) VanEck ad
(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things
(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?
(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy
(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market
(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)
(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies
(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)
(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Andy Constan: The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
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VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) The Script
(02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes
(04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession
(07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)
(13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market?
(17:13) VaEck Ad
(18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500)
(22:35) Stock Bond Correlation
(30:17) May Fed Meeting
(31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts)
(33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year
(34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy
(39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks?
(41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise
(44:53) The Japanese Yen
(46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States
(47:37) Chinese Equity Market
(49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Investing For A Recession-Free Future | Vincent Deluard on Secularly-High Inflation, China’s Currency Crisis, and The Long-Term Debt Cycle
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
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VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation?
(19:38) VanEck Ad
(20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle
(29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future
(34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation
(42:03) The Fed
(55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation
(01:04:20) The Japanese Yen
(01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Powell’s Last Stand | Danielle DiMartino Booth on May Fed Meeting 2024
For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Daily Feather”: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward
Or use code “FORWARD” at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:46) The QT Taper
(05:25) Was The May FOMC Meeting A Dovish or a Hawkish Meeting?
(09:01) The Fed Is Now Focusing On The Softening Labor Market, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth
(22:53) U.S. Economy Entered Recession In October, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth
(29:53) Consumer Spending
(33:11) Layoffs in 2024
(36:22) New Neutral Rate Of Interest
(38:32) Private Equity & Private Credit
(47:07) The Bernanke Doctrine
(51:24) Basel III Endgame
(56:33) Dissents
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
The Crypto Endgame in 2024 | Fireside Chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund
This is a paid sponsorship on behalf of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Today’s episode of Forward Guidance is a special fireside chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund. Kanade shares his philosophy for investing in crypto, and discusses his views on Prior to joining VanEck, Mr. Kanade worked as a Credit Portfolio Manager at Millennium Management.
Pranav’s Substack: https://killerapps.substack.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:31) Kanade's Journey Into Crypto
(10:43) Kanade's Investment Philosophy
(13:55) Is Crypto In A New Bull Market?
(35:32) Leverage And Funding Rates
(38:01) How Macro (And The Federal Reserve) Impacts Crypto
(48:45) Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN)
(52:42) Tesla
(54:54) Crypto Venture Capitalists (VCs)
(58:15) Eth vs. Sol
(01:01:12) At This Stage, Most AI Crypto Things Is "Nonsense"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
The Stock Market Will Melt-Up As Inflation Resurges | Harris Kupperman
This week Harris Kupperman returns to the show for a discussion on how he is thinking about markets in 2024. Expecting bonds to continue selling off, will equity markets crumble or continue to melt up as fiscal dominance takes the reigns?
Harris then shares his thoughts on some of the best opportunities he is seeing in markets such as oil, gold miners, uranium & more. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:14) Nobody's Ready For Higher Inflation
(02:59) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024?
(05:26) Gold
(09:25) Oil
(17:04) VanEck Ad
(18:07) The Uranium Trade
(30:37) Gaining Gold Exposure vs Owning The Miners
(37:06) The A.I Trade & Investing In Your Circle Of Competence
(39:59) Bitcoin
(42:58) The Bond Market Sell-Off Can Continue
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.