The Dividend Cafe

The Bahnsen Group
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The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

  1. 1 day ago

    Is This the Dreaded Top

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fUPJml David Bahnsen hosts Friday’s Dividend Cafe from East Hampton on June 19, a Juneteenth market holiday, and discusses whether current conditions signal a “top” while rejecting short-term market timing. He notes elevated S&P 500 multiples based on operating earnings and warns that today’s concern is more about market mood and complacency than valuations alone, citing Bill Ackman’s SpaceX-related quote as symptomatic of circular reasoning about value. Bahnsen argues the risk paradigm is shifting as companies move from low reinvestment and buybacks toward heavy capex, more borrowing, and potential equity issuance. He highlights NVIDIA and Broadcom stocks lagging despite strong revenue growth as possible signs of over-discounted narratives, and points to extreme SpaceX valuation as a sentiment indicator. He also describes a Fed leadership shift toward a more constrained approach that may tolerate froth coming out of risk assets, concluding investors should prioritize rational, defensible portfolios tied to operating performance and dividend growth. 00:00 Summer Intro and Holiday 00:57 Is This the Top 02:33 Valuations Aren't the Trigger 04:45 The Market Vibe Problem 06:13 Ackman Quote Warning Sign 09:27 Risk Paradigm Shifts 11:59 NVIDIA and Broadcom Signals 14:32 SpaceX Valuation and Mood 16:19 Fed Regime Change 19:53 Do the Right Thing 22:19 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    24 min

  2. 1 day ago

    Thursday - June 18, 2026

    On Thursday, June 18, David Bahnsen recapped a strong market day led by the Nasdaq (up nearly 500 points, just under 2%), with the S&P 500 up just over 1% and the Dow up 72 points. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services led, while energy, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples lagged. He highlighted SpaceX’s roughly $2.5 trillion market cap (down from nearly $3 trillion days earlier after a 17–18% drop) and contrasted it with Amazon and Microsoft profitability versus SpaceX’s $19 billion in sales and a $9 billion loss. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 226,000 (four-week average 223,000). Bond yields reflected further curve flattening: the 10-year fell to 4.45% while shorter maturities rose. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 Market Rally Snapshot 00:44 Sector Winners and Losers 01:07 SpaceX Valuation Reality Check 02:33 Jobless Claims Update 02:54 Yield Curve Flattening 03:28 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    5 min

  3. 2 days ago

    Wednesday - June 17, 2026

    David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:10 Fed Meeting Recap 01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance 01:55 Five Fed Task Forces 02:44 Reaction Function Critique 04:17 Market Selloff and Yields 05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown 06:02 Economic Data Check 06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    8 min

  4. 3 days ago

    Tuesday - June 16, 2026

    David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO. 00:00 Market Recap Overview 00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot 01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence 02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally 03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals 04:07 What Drawdown Means 05:02 Wrap Up and Contact Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    7 min

  5. 4 days ago

    Monday - June 15, 2026

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eITc6m David Bahnsen covers a broad “around the horn” Monday Dividend Cafe, highlighting extreme SpaceX IPO trading volume as evidence of IPO mania rather than price discovery. Markets rallied on weekend news of a forthcoming U.S.-Iran agreement and a planned signing, with the Dow up 469 points, the S&P up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up over 3%; technology led while energy fell, small caps continued to outperform, and the 10-year yield held near 4.47%. He notes key unknowns in the Iran deal (Hormuz terms, enforcement, uranium, funds). Economic and policy updates include May industrial production up 0.1%, falling homebuilder sentiment (35), and housing affordability bill uncertainty. He previews the FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, cites the ECB’s first hike in over three years, discusses lower oil and gasoline prices, answers a question on dividend growth returns, and closes celebrating the Knicks’ first title in 53 years. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:02 SpaceX IPO Mania 03:11 Markets Rally and Rotation 05:27 Iran Deal Unknowns 07:28 Economic and Policy Updates 09:13 Housing Sentiment Check 10:01 Central Banks and Fed Week 11:05 Oil and Gas Price Moves 11:50 Dividend Growth Q&A 13:37 Knicks Championship Moment 15:31 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    17 min

  6. 12 Jun

    IPO Mania

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49T1HsR David Bahnsen returns Dividend Cafe to its normal market focus and records Thursday to avoid being influenced by SpaceX’s anticipated IPO trading. He discloses he and some clients own SpaceX via an SPV and will be locked up for a year, after which he expects to sell. Using SpaceX’s planned $75B raise with a very small public float and huge valuation, plus prospective trillion-dollar IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, he argues public markets face unprecedented IPO valuation “indigestion.” He challenges the belief that IPOs are easy money driven by hype, limited supply, or forced index buying, citing history of large drawdowns after major IPOs and warning about post-lockup selling. He also notes private-company markups boosting reported earnings at mega-cap tech firms. His central message: IPO mania distracts from fundamentals and ignores risk-reward symmetry; “free money” doesn’t exist, and disciplined long-term investing matters. 00:00 Welcome Back Update 00:42 Why Record Early 02:18 SpaceX IPO Setup 05:00 Valuation Shockwave 08:00 IPO Pop Myth 09:38 Index Inclusion Hype 12:02 Hidden Earnings Impact 13:31 Ask Better Questions 17:16 Private To Public Shift 19:34 No Such Thing Free Money 20:47 Discipline And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    23 min

  7. 11 Jun

    Thursday - June 11, 2026

    Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal after a broad sell-off tied to Iran war rhetoric gave way to gains on news of progress toward a deal, with the Dow up about 900 points, the S&P 500 up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq up 2.25%. He notes meaningfully lower interest rates (10-year down 9 bps to ~4.45%) and oil’s reduced sensitivity to Strait of Hormuz headlines as shipping reroutes and supply adjustments develop. Economic data included a hotter-than-expected headline May PPI (1.1%) but cooler core PPI (0.4%) alongside slightly worse initial jobless claims (229k). He highlights earnings growth concentration in energy (+117%) and technology (~60%) versus weak growth in consumer discretionary and financials, and responds to a college grad’s question by framing AI as a tool, emphasizing human trust and expressing optimism about job opportunities. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 Market Reversal Rally 01:38 Rates and Oil Calm 02:41 PPI Inflation Breakdown 03:52 Jobless Claims Update 04:05 Earnings Sector Split 05:48 AI and Entry Jobs 07:21 Closing Remarks 07:37 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    9 min

  8. 10 Jun

    Wednesday - June 10, 2026

    From The Bahnsen Group’s West Palm Beach office on June 10, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off driven by a continued rotation out of overvalued tech/semiconductors and later by news the U.S. would resume strikes on Iran, after an initially encouraging CPI report helped markets rebound mid-morning. The Dow fell 953 points (1.87%) to session lows, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and Nasdaq down 2%. Headline CPI for May was 0.5% (4.2% year over year), while core CPI was cooler at 0.2% (2.9% year over year), which he views as encouraging amid strong growth and employment. He notes oil rose but markets seem more desensitized as supply chains adapt. He also answers that splitting between a dividend growth portfolio and the S&P 500 is not a hedge due to high correlation; true hedging comes from asset allocation across stocks, bonds, alternatives, real assets, and cash. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 01:26 CPI Surprise and Fed Focus 03:13 Middle East Risks and Oil 03:50 Oil Market Adapts 04:29 Ask TBG Portfolio Hedging 05:08 Real Hedging Asset Allocation 06:00 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    8 min
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About

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

Information

  • Creator
    The Bahnsen Group
  • Years Active
    2016 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.3k
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © All rights reserved @2024
  • Show Website
    The Dividend Cafe

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