Current Account with Clay Lowery

Institute of International Finance

Each week, Clay Lowery at the Institute of International Finance highlights current issues in international finance and economics through the lens of U.S. policy and politics. Clay and his guests explain what to watch in the coming week, and deep-dive into some of the most important topics facing the financial industry, and our world.

  1. HACE 3 DÍAS

    Let’s Get This Strait: Iran, Oil, and Global Markets

    In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss the conflict in Iran and the resulting market implications as the conflict enters its fourth week. With continued attacks on oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz still nearly shut, global markets are confronting the consequences of an energy shock unlike anything seen in decades. Oil remains above $100 a barrel, supply routes are strained, and consumers around the world are feeling the pressure at the pump. To help make sense of the rapidly changing energy picture, they explore why this shock is proving so disruptive, how markets have responded so far, and which regions are most exposed if elevated prices persist. The conversation examines the broader macroeconomic risks: when a tight oil market stops being a short‑term nuisance and begins to bleed into inflation expectations, how long supply disruptions can be sustained before strategic reserves or alternative routes come into play, and what a delayed reopening of the Strait might mean for energy‑importing economies. Clay and Helima also discuss the political dimension, including President Trump’s self‑imposed deadline for a negotiated end to the conflict, and the uncertainty surrounding whether flows through the Strait can ever return to pre‑war levels. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

    28 min
  2. 23 MAR

    The Plot Thickens: Broader Implications of the War in Iran

    In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to return to the rapidly evolving conflict in Iran as the fighting enters its third week. What began as a regional confrontation has now produced far‑reaching political and economic consequences, both within Iran and across global markets. Oil remains near $100 per barrel, energy infrastructure in the Gulf has been repeatedly struck, and the killing of another senior Iranian figure has escalated uncertainty around the trajectory of the conflict. Richard provides insight into how Iran’s battlefield setbacks, leadership losses, and retaliatory strikes on Gulf cities are shaping the country’s strategic posture, and how these dynamics are influencing regional partners who once viewed themselves as insulated from direct conflict. The conversation also explores why European countries have declined to join U.S. efforts near the Strait of Hormuz despite their heavy reliance on energy flows through the corridor, and how President Trump’s assertion that the U.S. “doesn’t need help” from NATO is shaping transatlantic tensions. Clay and Richard examine the roles of China and Russia, both of which have publicly expressed support for Iran, and discuss what this alignment reveals about the broader geopolitical relationship among the three countries. The episode concludes with a look at possible scenarios going forward, from prolonged fighting to broader regional spillover, what policymakers should watch as the conflict evolves, and the sentiment within the United States of entering into this conflict. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

    28 min
  3. 9 MAR

    Can Europe Move From Diagnosis to Delivery?

    In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Meghan Milloy, the IIF’s Managing Director and Head of Corporate Communications, and Martin Boer, General Manager of the IIF’s Brussels Office and Chief Representative, Europe, to revisit Europe at a moment of mounting complexity - fresh off the IIF’s European Summit in Brussels on March 4-5. Clay reflects on the policy conversations shaping Europe’s agenda; conversations that were already wide‑ranging before a sudden escalation of conflict in the Middle East reshaped the economic backdrop. With crude prices sharply higher and natural gas prices surging, Europe finds itself confronting an immediate energy shock just as it enters the spring with unusually low inventories and reduced access to energy resources. To begin to unpack these developments and the priorities emerging across the continent, Meghan shares insights from her conversations with policymakers and industry leaders at the Summit, highlighting what is top of mind for European stakeholders, from immediate concerns about energy security to the broader challenge of sustaining growth. Martin brings a view from the ground on regulatory simplification efforts, noting that while the topic is gaining attention, meaningful progress remains uneven. He also discusses the rapid rise of defense financing as a central policy priority and how governments, banks, and investors are weighing ways to support defense needs without crowding out other long‑standing commitments. Together, Meghan and Martin reflect on the evolving transatlantic relationship and what recent shifts mean for financial cooperation, especially as Europe and the United States grapple with geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain adjustments, and diverging regulatory pathways. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

    31 min
  4. 2 MAR

    When Regulatory Simplification Gets Complicated

    In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Doug Elliott, Partner at Oliver Wyman, and Andrés Portilla, Managing Director of Regulatory Affairs at the IIF, to take a closer look at the growing global debate over regulatory modernization. Fifteen years after the Global Financial Crisis led policymakers to introduce an expansive set of rules designed to reinforce financial stability, many jurisdictions are now questioning whether the existing framework has become overly complex, duplicative, or limiting to growth. Together, Clay, Doug, and Andrés unpack what modernization really means today, whether it is simplification, de‑layering, right‑sizing, or true deregulation, and why the conversation is gaining urgency across markets. Doug lays out the philosophical and practical forces behind modernization efforts globally, while Andrés discusses the findings of the recent IIF Report, "Modernization and Simplification — Revamping the Global Banking Regulatory Framework" - underscoring how overlapping constraints and diverging national interpretations create unnecessary friction for banks operating across borders. The discussion also turns to the ongoing debate over central bank independence, an issue increasingly intertwined with the regulatory modernization agenda. They examine how these debates differ across jurisdictions, how they may influence regulatory decision‑making, and why a credible, independent regulatory framework remains essential for market confidence. In addition, the conversation assesses the role of global standard setters, including the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee, in helping ensure consistency as countries revise their approaches at different paces. Clay and his guests discuss why maintaining coherence across borders is critical, even as national politics, growth priorities, and competitive pressures pull policymakers in different directions. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

    37 min
  5. 23 FEB

    When the Questions Are Better Than the Answers: Signals From Japan and the Dollar

    In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist at Citi and former U.S. Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, to explore Japan’s shifting economic landscape following a historic political moment.* Just over 100 days into her term, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election that delivered a rare supermajority for the Liberal Democratic Party. With such a decisive mandate, Japan enters 2026 with renewed political strength and major policy opportunities. Together, they discuss what Prime Minister Takaichi’s victory means for economic policymaking, how the U.S.-Japan alliance is shaping the outlook, and the growing debate around possible U.S. intervention in the yen. Nathan offers insight into why intervention is being discussed now, what it would aim to accomplish, and whether it is truly likely given recent messaging from Washington. The conversation also examines the broader dollar debate, Japan’s uniquely high debt levels, and the pressures facing both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Clay and Nathan conclude with a look at geopolitics, specifically the delicate triumvirate relationship between the U.S., Japan and China, and how this balance could impact the global economy in the year ahead. *Before jumping into Japan, Clay acknowledges the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision striking down the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs. For more on IEEPA and its implications, check out Current Account episodes [134](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6450/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-134--The-Best-of-Times-and-the-Worst-of-Times--A-Tale-of-Trump-s-Tariffs "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6450/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-134--The-Best-of-Times-and-the-Worst-of-Times--A-Tale-of-Trump-s-Tariffs"), [126](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6360/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-126--Stop--In-the-Name-of-Tariffs---The-Supremes--Court----IEEPA "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6360/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-126--Stop--In-the-Name-of-Tariffs---The-Supremes--Court----IEEPA"), [109](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6166/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-109--An-Eye-for-an-IEEPA--Trump-Tariffs---Where-Are-They-Now- "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6166/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-109--An-Eye-for-an-IEEPA--Trump-Tariffs---Where-Are-They-Now-"), and [96](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6026/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-96--Tariff-o-Rama--Explaining-U-S--Tariff-Implications "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6026/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-96--Tariff-o-Rama--Explaining-U-S--Tariff-Implications"). This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

    28 min
  6. 17 FEB

    The Best of Times and the Worst of Times: A Tale of Trump’s Tariffs

    In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Chris Padilla, Senior Advisor at Brunswick Group and former U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, to revisit U.S. trade policy. After a turbulent 2025 marked by sweeping tariffs, new negotiation frameworks, and significant legal uncertainty, trade may feel quieter entering 2026, but remains a central priority for the Trump administration. Drawing on his years of government and corporate experience, Chris offers perspective on the issues likely to dominate trade policy this year, from the durability of recent agreements with China, the EU, Japan, and Korea to the broader geopolitical shifts driven by tariff realignments and new partnerships. The conversation also covers the ongoing U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review, an area of heightened uncertainty as political tensions rise among member countries. Clay and Chris discuss how the process could unfold, whether renewal or restructuring is more realistic, and what the implications may be for North American supply chains. They also examine the pending Supreme Court decision on the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs - an outcome with major consequences for U.S. trade strategy. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

    32 min

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Each week, Clay Lowery at the Institute of International Finance highlights current issues in international finance and economics through the lens of U.S. policy and politics. Clay and his guests explain what to watch in the coming week, and deep-dive into some of the most important topics facing the financial industry, and our world.

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