More or Less

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Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

hace 1 h

The Uzbekistan-shaped hole in an influential climate cost paper

How much could climate change cost the global economy? That would be a very useful thing to know, and scientists have developed statistical models that they think can help give a reasonable answer. These involve finding the patterns in economic data associated with temperature changes - and then applying them to the future changes that are predicted as the globe warms. In 2024, a scientific paper was published that apparently offered the most accurate projection yet of that potential cost - analysing the impact of temperature on economic activity at a far more granular level than had been attempted before. The paper quickly became highly influential. And then at the end of 2025, it was retracted. Why? It’s all got something to do with Uzbekistan. Solomon Hsiang, Professor of Global Environmental Policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, explains how he and his team identified the problem. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon
hace 2 días

Does the UK really have nine out of the ten poorest regions in Northern Europe?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way. (07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led by Donkeys? (11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the channel in small boats in one day. Social media is keen to work out how much this might cost the UK economy. We put the numbers in context and ask Madeleine Sumption from the Migration Observatory about the fiscal impact of asylum seekers. (21:38) A claim has been buzzing round the internet that bees could hold the secret to long life, but our team is sceptical. We deliver the statistical exposé of Big Honey that the mainstream media’s been too afraid to cover. Guests: Liam Sides, Associate Director at Oxford Economics’ Cities and Regions team Dr Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford Professor Dot Bennett, Professor of Cell Biology at City St. George's, University of London Dr Ramsay Bowden, Consultant in Clinical Genetics at Cambridge University Hospitals Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Kateryna Pavlyuk Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard
26 sep

Trump fact-check: Do the US and Venezuela have 60% of the world’s oil?

US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil. 100% of the team on More or Less were confused. What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves of oil in the ground? It’s hard to make any of these stats add up. To find out whether there was any truth in the claim, we spoke to energy expert Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. If you spot any numbers you think we should take a look at, email us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Researcher: Kateryna Pavlyuk Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: Neil Churchill
23 sep

Has the UK’s productivity puzzle been solved?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles. (07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history. (13:51) Is the AI datacentre goldrush threatening to swamp our electricity grid? And what are the consequences for its carbon footprint? We delicately untangle the live wires of this hot potato and give the people what they want: nuanced #GridChat. (20:38) This is the way the album ends - not with a banger, but with a whimper. Music Substacker Mitchell Stirling has used data to test the decades theory that albums tend to end with a quiet track. Come for the explanation of the physics of vinyl, stay for whatever music we end up being able to use. Guests: Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Johnny Gowdy - Director at Regen Mitchell Stirling - Substacker, data nerd, music nerd (Renaissance man) Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard
19 sep

Are carrots becoming less nutritious?

Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame? Loyal listener Sarah got in touch to ask us to investigate an interesting quote from Dr Karan Rajan in a BBC news story. “We know our soil is not as nutrient dense as it was decades ago,” he said. “So a carrot in the 1950s will be far more nutrient-rich than a 2026 carrot.” Is this really true? wondered Sarah. We wondered the same, so we spoke to some experts on fruit and veg nutrition to find out. CONTRIBUTORS Robin Marles, a former senior scientist in Canada’s Food and Nutrition Directorate Professor Steve McGrath, a research scientist at Rothamsted Research CREDITS Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon
16 sep

Are bad teeth the number one reason kids go to A&E?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids. (08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts. (13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training? (20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more than a 10% chance AI kills all humans within the next decade. We explore the rigorous maths (or lack thereof) behind these kinds of predictions. Guests: Dr Chris Vernazza - head of the School of Dental Sciences at Newcastle University Daisy Christodoulou - Director of Education at No More Marketing Dr Alexandru Marcoci - Assistant Professor of Global Risk and Resilience at the University of Cambridge Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill
12 sep

Could this be the strongest El Niño in 1,000 Years?

Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect. This is a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures rise, transferring warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. This can drive up global temperatures but also play havoc with weather systems, with profound consequences. And this year, scientists have watched with ever-widening eyes, as their projections for the peak of this year’ El Niño event have come in unprecedently high. Indeed, one climate scientist has argued that it's not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years. We wanted to find out more, so we went straight to the scientist himself. Contributor: Dr. Zeke Hausfather - research scientist with Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at Stripe Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon
9 sep

Why are so many ex-prisoners being sent back to prison?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why? (07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics. (14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain? (21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest. Guests: Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane, Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

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The Global News Podcast brings you the breaking news you need to hear, as it happens. Listen for the latest headlines and current affairs from around the world. Politics, economics, climate, business, technology, health – we cover it all with expert analysis and insight. Get the news that matters, delivered twice a day on weekdays and daily at weekends, plus special bonus episodes reacting to urgent breaking stories. Follow or subscribe now and never miss a moment. Get in touch: globalpodcast@bbc.co.uk

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Noticias diarias
How did the richest people on the planet make their billions? New episodes include: Sir Paul McCartney, Roger Federer, MrBeast, Luana Lopes Lara, Beyoncé, Cristiano Ronaldo and Steven Spielberg. Make up your minds whether you think they are good, bad or just another billionaire. In each episode, BBC Business Editor Simon Jack and journalist and author Zing Tsjeng analyse the lives of the super-rich, and try to understand what motivates billionaires like Elon Musk, Kim Kardashian, Tyler Perry and Oprah Winfrey. New season: From singing superstar Beyoncé, to footballing legend Cristiano Ronaldo, Simon and Zing will rate their wealth, power, legacy and associated controversies, putting them to the test with a playful, totally unscientific scorecard. Then they hand the verdict over to you: are they good, bad, or simply billionaires? Get in touch by email and let us know what you think! The contact details are at the end of these show notes. Ever wondered how Taylor Swift went from country singer to money-spinner? How tennis ace Roger Federer turned sporting prowess into amazing business opportunities? Or how Mr Beast and Khaby Lame became some of the wealthiest people on the planet by posting on YouTube and TikTok? Trawl through the archives to find out how Selena Gomez went from a child Disney star to a mega-magnate of makeup, and how Martha Stewart, the “original lifestyle influencer”, became one of the most successful women in business. We explore the life of British inventor Sir James Dyson, and learn about some of the big names behind Snapchat, Minecraft, Marvel, ChatGPT, Google and Amazon, which shape the world we live in today. In a special season, we have also told the stories of the pioneers who helped build the United States of America: the world’s first billionaire John D Rockefeller, motor magnate Henry Ford, the aviator and filmmaker Howard Hughes, Walmart founder Sam Walton, and Hetty Green - once dubbed “The Witch of Wall Street”. It's not just how billionaires made their money; it's what they did with it next. So, what do you think? Make up your own mind. Are they good, bad, or just another billionaire? Let us know your thoughts, and we may include your comments and suggestions in a future episode. If you do not wish for your comments, first name or location to be read out, please say that in your email or message, or mark it confidential. Email goodbadbillionaire@bbc.com or drop us a text or WhatsApp to +1 (917) 686-1176. To find out more about the show and read our privacy notice, visit www.bbcworldservice.com/goodbadbillionaire

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Emprendimiento
Josh Baker enters a dangerous world of fear, greed and betrayal as he sets out to uncover the truth behind one of the biggest missing-person cases of our time - the abduction of American journalist Austin Tice. Josh - creator of two of the BBC's most award-winning and widely listened-to investigative podcasts, I'm Not a Monster and The Shamima Begum Story - returns for his most ambitious chapter yet, in a major new series from BBC Radio 4 and NPR's Embedded. This is not the retelling of a closed case. It is a real-time investigation into a disappearance that has remained unsolved for more than a decade, conducted in close contact with Austin's family. What started out as a personal effort to help a mother find her son has turned into a multi-year journalistic investigation stretching from the corridors of power in Washington DC to the depths of the Syrian security state. Austin Tice is a journalist, law student and former Marine officer, who vanished in Syria in 2012. Since then, competing stories have emerged about his fate. In some, he is alive - held in a cell and waiting to be rescued. In others, he was smuggled out of Syria and hidden away. In the darkest versions, he died long ago. His disappearance has reached the highest levels of power - from presidents to popes - yet remarkably little is known about what happened to him. Investigative journalists Josh Baker and Sara Obeidat begin following Austin's trail long before the fall of the Syrian regime. Then everything changes. The regime collapses, and the black box of Syria's intelligence state opens. Sources step forward, unprecedented leaks arrive and doors to secret bases that had been sealed for years open. Josh and Sara speak to spies, search secret prisons and track down alleged war criminals in hiding, uncovering information that has never been made public and making discoveries that generate international headlines. The audience follows every breakthrough as the investigation closes in on those who may know the truth - while Syria is transformed and powerful interests compete to shape what happens next. Some claim Austin was working for the CIA. Others say he was simply a young journalist trying to make his name in war reporting. His fate has become entangled in secret negotiations and geopolitical power struggles that are still unfolding. At the centre of it all is his mother, Debra Tice, who has never stopped searching for her son. There are people who know exactly what happened to Austin. Some of them do not want the truth to come out. So where is Austin Tice?

4.0 (8)

Documentales
The comedy podcast that takes history seriously. In each episode of You’re Dead to Me from BBC Radio 4, Greg Jenner is joined by a comedian and an expert historian to learn and laugh about the past. History isn’t just about dates and textbooks – it’s about extraordinary characters, amazing stories, and some very questionable fashion choices. How long did it take to build an Egyptian pyramid? What does the Bayeux Tapestry reveal about medieval life? Why did it take nearly half a millennium for Joan of Arc to become a saint? And was Catherine the Great really all that great? Whether you want to explore ancient landmarks like Stonehenge and Machu Picchu, dance through the history of Broadway and Bollywood, or find out how the Tudors rose to power, Greg and his guests promise to teach you something new that you won’t have heard in history lessons. Previous episodes of You’re Dead To Me have covered everything from royals to revolutionaries, actors to activists and divas to dictators. Take a stroll through the history of high-heeled shoes or get the scoop on the history of ice cream. Maybe you’d like to paint like the cave artists of the Palaeolithic era, work out like a Victorian bodybuilder, or fight like a Spartan? We’ve even hosted a special, live episode with the BBC Concert Orchestra to explore the dramatic life of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. Whatever your historical interests, Greg and his guests make even the trickiest topics easy to follow. Join them for a history lesson that’s as entertaining as it is enlightening - with no homework required.

4.5 (26)

Historia
A world-class seminar, every week. In Our Time explores the ideas, people and discoveries that have shaped our world, spanning history, philosophy, religion, science, literature, art and culture. On Thursdays, hear brand-new episodes hosted by Misha Glenny and leading academics. On Mondays, discover Misha's Archive Picks: classic conversations from the In Our Time archive, originally presented by Melvyn Bragg. Recent episodes have featured topics as wide-ranging as the Roman Arena, Handel's Messiah, John Keats, On Liberty and the Mariana Trench, bringing expert insight to pivotal events, influential thinkers and remarkable discoveries. Throughout the archive, you can hear discussions on historical figures such as Marie Antoinette, Nefertiti, Mary Wollstonecraft, Karl Marx and Albert Einstein; explore great works of literature such as Shakespeare’s Hamlet, Nineteen Eighty-Four, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland and the poetry of John Donne; uncover the stories behind cultural masterpieces including Van Gogh's Sunflowers and Michelangelo's Sistine Chapel; or journey from Jupiter and the death of stars, to the theories of Plato and Aristotle. In Our Time celebrates the pursuit of knowledge and the enduring power of ideas.

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Historia
The latest business and finance news from around the world, on the BBC.

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Economía y empresa