Stephan Livera Podcast

Stephan Livera

Join Stephan as he interviews the sharpest economic and technical minds in Bitcoin & Austrian Economics to help you understand how money is changing and evolving. Leading names in the world of Bitcoin join the show to share their insights, whether they are developers, CEOs, economists, authors, analysts and more.

  1. hace 5 días

    Lyn Alden: BIP 110 Could Trigger August Bitcoin Chain Split | SLP757

    Lyn Alden warns that BIP 110 is unlikely to curb spam and instead mostly rearranges non-monetary data, raising the risk of a minority fork attempt that could split the Bitcoin chain. Lyn Alden is a leading macro analyst and Bitcoiner who examines how fiscal dominance now overrides traditional monetary policy tools. She breaks down why high debt-to-GDP ratios prevent rate hikes from taming inflation, how broad money supply still expands 5-8 percent annually, the limits of semiconductor and AI valuations, and the structure of a new Bitcoin-backed permanent capital vehicle for acquiring cash-flowing businesses. Timestamps: 02:14 — BIP 110 Won't Stop Spam 04:56 — Bitcoin Faces August Chain Split Risk 12:12 — Bitcoin in Bottom Decile of Cycle 15:37 — Nothing Stops This Fiscal Train 18:04 — Why Volcker Can't Work Today 22:02 — Higher Rates Won't Break the System 24:44 — Net Issuance Matters, Not Gross Refi 27:34 — Fed Balance Sheet Stays Flattish 32:56 — Broad Money Grows Despite Flat Fed 36:05 — US Money Supply Growth Hits 5-8% 38:51 — Fiscal Dominance: Who Wins the Money? 41:50 — Why Semiconductors Print Money 45:13 — Software Stocks: Value Trap or Opportunity? 47:31 — AI Is the New Dot-Com Bubble 52:00 — Orange Juice: Bitcoin-Backed Business Buyer 57:57 — Permanent Capital Vehicle, Not a Fund 59:39 — Founders Keep Equity Upside After Sale Links:   X: https://x.com/LynAldenContact Website: https://www.lynalden.com/0 BIP 110 debate ("motte-and-bailey" critique): https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/2078599151043162159  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    Lyn Alden: BIP 110 Could Trigger August Bitcoin Chain Split | SLP757
  2. 17 jul

    Bitcoin Desire Hits 8-Year Low | Michael Sullivan SLP756

    Bitcoin desire sentiment has fallen to an eight-year low, a contrarian signal that historically aligns with market bottoms rather than tops. Michael Sullivan, an engineer and author, applies machine learning to individual X accounts to track granular Bitcoin emotions and moods over time. He examines how entry eras shape lasting narratives, why pro-BIP 110 cohorts show strikingly low conviction, how individual tracking avoids bot pollution, and why boredom plus infighting often mark optimal accumulation zones. Timestamps: 01:44 — Conviction Isn't Bullish or Bearish 07:05 — Why Individual X Tracking Beats Bots 09:53 — Desire Peaks Flag Bull Market Tops 11:49 — Bitcoin Desire Hits 8-Year Low 16:27 — New Bitcoiners Angriest Right Now 21:00 — Bitcoin Entry Era Shapes Your Views Forever? 22:48 — BIP 110 Backers Show Strikingly Low Conviction 25:33 — Pro-BIP 110 Group Lives in Its Own Bubble 28:39 — BIP110 Brigading Creates Fake Consensus 31:57 — OGs Optimistic, Plebs Stay Angry 37:13 — X Algo Shift Sparks Bitcoin Optimism 39:57 — Why Sentiment Metrics Fail for Trading 41:55 — Boredom and Infighting Signal Bitcoin Bottom Links:  Michael's X: https://x.com/SullyMichaelvan Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly on Substack: https://sentimentsully.substack.com Michael’s novel, Blood of the Bourgeoisie: https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Bourgeoisie-Michael-R-Sullivan-ebook/dp/B0FRZTM49Y Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

  3. 10 jul

    James Check: Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin Amid Time Pain | SLP755

    Even as ETFs and MicroStrategy sell into weakness, natural spot demand has kept Bitcoin from collapsing in what may be the shallowest bear market on record. The real test now is time pain, the grinding boredom that forces out remaining weak hands after the initial price capitulation. James Check, founder of Checkonchain.com, joins me to break down the current cycle through on-chain data and market psychology. His framework distinguishes price pain from the subsequent time pain that historically marks the true bottom. Checkmate examines why short-term holders flipped into high-conviction buyers, why 53K realized price now acts as a floor, the Pareto distribution among Bitcoin treasury companies, and why most copycat strategies will fail in the months ahead. Timestamps: 00:56 — Last Day of Bear Feels Worst 03:26 — Time Pain Grinds Out Weak Hands 05:53 — Shallowest Bear Market Ever Seen 08:53 — Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin From Zero 11:14 — Short-Term Holders Are Now Smart Money 15:28 — July Bear Bottom: 8-Method Average 18:50 — 53K Realized Price Now the Floor 23:00 — Buy Bottom 15% and Just DCA 28:30 — The AI Trade 30:46 — Bitcoin and Gold Share a Rare Moat 35:23 — Will Most Bitcoin Treasuries Fail? 37:37 — MSTR's Sale of Bitcoin 41:28 — Bitcoin Treasuries Follow Harsh Pareto Rule 47:30 — Bitcoin Treasuries Next Cycle 49:05 — High-Yield Trap? Links:  https://x.com/_Checkmatey_ https://x.com/_checkonchain checkonchain.com https://charts.checkonchain.com http://newsletter.checkonchain.com/ Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack #StephanLivera #StephanLiveraPodcast #Bitcoin #BearMarket #OnChain #Checkmate #TimePain #RealizedPrice #BitcoinTreasury #MarketCycles

    James Check: Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin Amid Time Pain | SLP755
  4. 3 jul

    Fedimint in South Africa: Zero Fees & Community Custody | SLP752

    A South African circular economy is already running real payments on Fedimint with seven guardians on Start9 boxes. Users send eCash with zero fees inside the federation and feel the same simplicity as Wallet of Satoshi—except the custody is local and the privacy model is different. Hermann and Joshi explain how non-technical guardians set up 5-of-7 multisig, how the Conduit wallet hides complexity, and why Fedimint beats Liquid on on-chain integration and local trust. They also cover Lightning gateway economics and why small federations may beat one global Spark. Bitcoiners exploring Lightning, eCash privacy, and circular economies in emerging markets should listen. Key Takeaways: Seven-guardian 5-of-7 multisig on Start9 now runs daily in South Africa with high reliability. Users inside the same federation enjoy true zero-fee eCash transfers. Conduit wallet offers a lighter, payments-focused alternative to Fedi with regional QR support. Migration between federations is smooth with parallel running and user-controlled timing. Fedimint severs the transaction graph for privacy while Liquid hides amounts but retains the graph. Local guardians reduce the “custodial guilt” felt when onboarding users to foreign services. Lightning gateways can become profitable side businesses with only a few hours of monthly work. Geographic spread of guardians improves resilience against local internet or power outages. Onboarding still requires one extra step—joining the federation—after app install. Fedimint is on-chain native, allowing direct receive and send without intermediate swaps. Timestamps: 00:00 - Fedimint Goes Live in South Africa 01:48 - Magic: Pay Across Africa 04:15 - Onboard Users Without Custodial Guilt 08:08 - Zero Fees Shock Rural Users 11:04 - Liquid vs Fedimint Privacy Showdown 13:32 - Many Small Federations Or Global Spark 16:09 - Non-Techies Run Bitcoin Guardians Easily 18:14 - 5-of-7 Multisig Survives Two Failures 20:53 - Fedimint QR Is a 5-of-7 Multisig 24:05 - Gateway: Profitable Hobby in Hours/Month 31:06 - Trust Locals Over Anonymous Custodians 34:55 - Spread Guardians to Survive Outages Links:  Bitcoin Ekasi: https://bitcoinekasi.org Fedimint: https://fedimint.org Conduit Wallet: https://joschisan.github.io/conduit/ SLP651 with Eric & Joschi: https://stephanlivera.com/651 Follow Hermann: https://x.com/vryfokkenou Follow Joschi: https://x.com/joschisanbtc Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    Fedimint in South Africa: Zero Fees & Community Custody | SLP752

Anfitriones e invitados

Calificaciones y reseñas

5
de 5
7 calificaciones

Acerca de

Join Stephan as he interviews the sharpest economic and technical minds in Bitcoin & Austrian Economics to help you understand how money is changing and evolving. Leading names in the world of Bitcoin join the show to share their insights, whether they are developers, CEOs, economists, authors, analysts and more.

También te podría interesar