The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. hace 6 h

    #382 Chris Whalen: Private Credit's "Slow Motion Train Wreck" & The Warning Signs for a 2028 Housing Reset

    Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche on this week's episode of "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" to break down what he calls a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit, where public and private funds alike are getting hammered with redemption requests just as the firms behind them sit on impaired assets like DSCR business-purpose loans. Whalen argues we're living through a replay of 2005 — high tide before the crack — and predicts a housing reset by 2027-2028 ("misery on the eights"), with home prices falling 10-20% and recent borrowers landing underwater. Along the way he covers double-digit inflation driven by energy supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz, why Chair Warsh can't slow-walk rate hikes, the volatility added by agentic AI trading and ETFs, his long-term bull case for gold and silver, the unwinding of Wall Street's crypto trade, the futility of Mamdani's NYC rent freeze, and viewer questions on inflation measurement and Annaly's common vs. preferred shares.   Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861 Fred Ramberg interview: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860 Signed copy of Seeing Around Corners: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/shop Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro 01:09 — Private credit: the "slow motion train wreck" and redemptions 02:24 — Rates higher-for-longer, double-digit inflation & the Strait of Hormuz 04:02 — The hidden cost of war and inflation as a tax 05:33 — Private credit shops buying insurers & DSCR loans 06:46 — "It's 2005 again" and the road to misery on the eights 07:46 — Signposts: institutional fraud in business-purpose loans 08:45 — What a DSCR loan is vs. a residential mortgage 11:55 — The private credit gates connection 12:32 — Predicting the 2028 housing reset & price declines 14:52 — How rising prices have masked defaults 15:27 — A 10-20% home price reset explained 15:46 — Which markets crack first (Florida, Miami, blue-state Northeast) 17:10 — Mom-and-pop investors and fix-and-flips 17:49 — Advice for homebuyers: stay below the conforming limit 18:42 — AI & semiconductor stock volatility 19:15 — Agentic trading bots and market manipulation 20:35 — Precious metals: gold below 4,000, silver near 57 22:37 — PCE data, sticky inflation & the gold-silver case 23:13 — Crypto falling apart, MicroStrategy & BlackRock selling 24:33 — CME suing over perps (perpetual futures) 25:34 — The NYC rent freeze / Mamdani hot take 26:49 — Viewer mail: changing the definition of inflation 28:20 — Viewer mail: is the debasement trade over? 29:08 — Viewer mail: Annaly common vs. preferred 31:03 — What's ahead next week (plus World Cup talk) 32:46 — Wrap-up

    34 min

  2. hace 2 días

    #381 Peter Grandich: Why the U.S. Stock Market's Biggest Tailwind Is About to Reverse

    Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://x.com/PeterGrandich https://petergrandich.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6 Timestamps: 00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich 01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck" 06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide 10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different 12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement" 13:11 — Taxes 17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading 20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy 22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead? 25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture 28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails 30:40 — Gold 32:00 — Spend less than you make 33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market 34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk 38:38 — The craps table metaphor 41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?"

    47 min

  3. hace 4 días

    #380 Peter Schiff: End Game Coming, Bubble Popping, $2 Trillion Interest by Next Year

    Peter Schiff warns the bubble is popping as crypto leads the decline, while the bond market faces another breakdown with the 10-year potentially breaking above 5%. He emphasizes inflation is a choice—all Fed chairs chose it, and Warsh will too despite tough talk, because the alternative is politically unacceptable. He reveals the May deficit surged 30% while interest expense jumped 44%, with annual interest payments now hitting $1.6 trillion and will be $2 trillion by next year. Schiff identifies Japan as a looming harbinger with 250% debt-to-GDP, yields climbing above 4%, and the yen collapsing below 160 with potential for another 30-50% decline. His end game thesis: the US dollar loses reserve currency status, US assets get repriced down, and he's positioning to "have all the chips" at the finish line. Gold's pullback from $5,600 to $4,200 is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move, while silver at $65 is headed to $200 and Bitcoin at $64,000 should be sold. GDP growth is an illusion created by faulty deflators that understate inflation; the economy hasn't really expanded, just become more expensive, and stagflationary depression is locked in. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:https://x.com/PeterSchiffhttps://www.youtube.com/@peterschiff Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff 00:50 Air coming out of bubble 1:16 Markets too complacent on inflation risks 1:45 Warsh has a problem - Hike or no hike, both bad 3:36 Inflation is a choice - All Fed chairs chose it 5:11 Warsh will choose inflation despite tough talk 5:24 Bond market breakdown coming - 10-year to 5%, 30-year to 5.5-6% 7:42 May deficit up 30%, interest expense up 44% 8:13 Interest payments $1.6 trillion/year, will be $2 trillion next year 9:39 Government spending up 50% since COVID, taxes reduced 10:57 Inflation is hidden tax - Government prefers it 11:52 Iran war costs through inflation, not direct taxation 13:49 Wealth tax - Slippery slope, will hit middle class eventually 19:56 Japan crisis - Debt to GDP 250%, yen collapsing below 160 20:29 Japanese bond yields at 4% on 30-year, rising fast 21:45 Japan could sell $1 trillion in US treasuries 24:41 Japan harbinger for US crisis 24:54 Treasury Secretary Paulson says crisis inevitable 27:18 Gold warning sign - Pullback to $4,200 from $5,600 normal 29:24 Silver at $65, headed to $200 32:39 Stock market at highs but economy worse than Biden 36:56 GDP illusion - Deflator too low, just prices not growth 39:48 End game - Dollar won't be reserve currency 40:40 Playing for end game, wants all chips at finish 43:31 Contrarian predictions - Higher rates, higher oil, higher gold 44:30 Japan crisis first domino, then dollar next 45:01 Summary - Stagflation and end game thesis

    48 min

  4. 20 jun

    #379 Chris Whalen: The Bond Market Already Hiked, Why Double-Digit Inflation Is Still Ahead, And Kevin Warsh Sets New Tone at Fed

    Chris Whalen is back for The Wrap after his fishing trip in Maine, where he caught a 21-inch smallmouth bass! He's very positive on Kevin Warsh's "less is more" approach at the Fed—no forward guidance, likely removing the dot plot, and refocusing on letting the numbers speak for themselves rather than trying to control expectations through communication. Whalen argues the bond market has already delivered a rate hike on its own, and if he were Warsh, he'd wait and see how the Iran peace deal holds before making more moves, given that war inflation is transitory and external to Fed policy. He reveals the definition of inflation will likely be narrowed to minimize rate hikes and avoid tanking the economy, and he's watching a massive rebalancing from equities to bonds at record allocation levels. Whalen sold most of his AI stocks and locked in serious gains, but he's holding SpaceX as a long-term play given Elon's monopolies on space launch and global internet. He warns the AI bubble is going south with Mike Saylor and Bitcoin spiraling, sees gold and silver as a great entry point after being beaten down, and is adding to positions. He explains silver's manufacturing and technology demand while copper faces supply constraints. On Iran, Whalen argues the MOU doesn't solve underlying inflation drivers—diesel, fertilizer, energy ripple through the economy—so double-digit inflation is locked in with no Fed rate cuts coming. He's concerned about private credit festering with two-and-twenty fees still common, distressed debt exchanges now over 70% of defaults since 2022, and he likes Annaly as a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets and mortgage servicing rights providing protection. Whalen notes precious metals could still rise despite rate hikes because central banks will keep accumulating gold as reserve assets.   Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 1:47 Warsh sets different tone - No forward guidance, likely no dot plots 3:33 Less is more approach - Fed was communicating too much 5:43 Bond market has already done the rate hike 6:50 War inflation is transitory - External factor Fed can't control 7:19 Definition of inflation will be adjusted/narrowed 9:10 Bond market doing tightening, not Fed funds rate 10:34 Rebalancing from equities to bonds at record levels 11:50 Sold most AI stocks, took profits, holding SpaceX 12:07 SpaceX monopoly on space/internet - Long term play 13:57 AI trade, Bitcoin 15:57 Gold/silver beaten up but good entry, adding positions 17:02 Silver manufacturing and technology demand 17:49 Copper supply/demand - Not enough copper globally 19:32 Iran MOU doesn't solve underlying issues 21:45 Double-digit inflation locked in - Diesel, fertilizer ripple 22:34 Fed can't fix war-driven inflation 23:52 No rate cuts coming - Business banking on cuts won't get them 24:48 Private credit festering problem - Two and twenty fees 26:16 Distressed debt exchanges over 70% of defaults 29:27 Annaly - Mortgage REIT with government insured assets 30:00 Precious metals could rise despite rate hikes - Central banks buying 31:43 Precious metals dollar strength question 32:07 Next week

    34 min

  5. 18 jun

    #378 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Gets 9/10, Finally "Fed Up Too," Removes Dot Plot

    In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10.⁠ http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth 1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too" 2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell" 3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution" 5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks 7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary 14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero 16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff 17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8% 19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 2025 24:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history" 26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak 27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic 29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal 30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors

    31 min

  6. 16 jun

    #377 Ted Oakley: We're Toward The End, Late Stage Market, Lemmings Everywhere

    In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 Opening and introduction 1:23 Market assessment 2:40 IPOs 3:49 Late stage market indicators 7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30% 8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure 8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing 11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market 12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings 18:54 Energy thesis 21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries 28:30 Bifurcated economy 29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested 32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time 37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in 39:53 Private credit issue 42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table 44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles

    45 min

  7. 6 jun

    #376 Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals an "explosive" John Dizard interview dropping next week on rationing of synthetic lubricants for turbines and hybrid cars before the midterms, while the Trump administration stays blind to the supply crisis from destroyed Persian Gulf refineries. Markets are already processing the damage, but the Trump admin lacks the organization to prepare Americans for coming energy rationing and diesel shortages. Whalen argues the Fed is "powerless" against external war-driven shocks, yet double-digit inflation is "locked in" for certain categories. He's taking profits on AI stocks (AMD, ARM) after 150-200% gains, bought back into Chevron, and declares Bitcoin "toast" as the crypto bubble bursts. He warns communities blocking data center projects will become "very significant negatives" for AI, and describes the current market as "manic"—driven purely by Fed Covid cash into AI stocks as people chase shiny objects rather than value.   Monetary-Metals.com/julia Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:00 Markets this week - Tech hit hard, gold erased gains, Bitcoin crushed 4:02 John Dizard interview - Rationing synthetic lubricants before midterms 5:30 Trump admin blind to crisis, needs WWII-level mobilization 7:58 Suppliers already rationing, July/August shortages pronounced 10:41 Double-digit inflation locked in, Fed powerless against external shocks 11:58 Taking profits on AI - Sold AMD, ARM, back into Chevron 13:19 Fed doesn't understand financial markets or mortgage servicing 14:40 Bond spreads tight - Scarcity of quality assets 17:28 Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence - Political payback 20:20 Trump shoots from hip, alienating Republicans, can't get anything done 21:02 Kevin Warsh quote - 3% inflation destroys economies 22:10 Gold erased 2026 gains - Higher rates, Bitcoin collapse 23:48 Bitcoin toast - BlackRock selling, crypto bubble burst 25:19 Manic market not driven by value, chasing AI 26:00 Communities blocking data center projects - Politics killing AI 27:07 Bubble driven by Fed Covid cash flood 28:43 Parting thoughts - Fishing in Maine, Dizard interview next week

    30 min

  8. 2 jun

    #375 Howell: Liquidity Slowing, Speculation Phase Ending, Why A Fed Hike Might Be Coming

    Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy 1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations 6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical 7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy 13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions 15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out 16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics 19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing 24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks 30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair 32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary 35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year 37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold 40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel 40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months 43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack

    44 min
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Información

  • Creador
    Julia La Roche
  • Años de actividad
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodios
    384
  • Clasificación
    Apto
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Mostrar sitio web
    The Julia La Roche Show

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