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15/12/2021

5 hari lalu

What Will the Fed Become Under Chair Kevin Warsh? + Greenspan's Legacy

In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and examine what may lie ahead for the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Steven A. Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman (1999–2006) Description: On this episode of The Spillover, cohost Rebecca Patterson speaks with CFR Distinguished Fellow for International Economics Roger Ferguson about Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve, which played out largely as predicted. To bring in fresh perspectives, Warsh has created five task forces. They cover communication, the inflation mandate, productivity and jobs, data collection, and a balance sheet framework. Well-led task forces have historically moved the Fed forward, but progress will likely be uneven and slower than hoped. As Roger Ferguson notes, “This is the kind of thing where you want to measure twice, cut once. Once you make the change, you're gonna have to live with it for a period of time.” Current conditions point to a rate hike rather than an ease. Core inflation appears stuck above three percent, energy-driven price pressures from the Iran war remain unresolved, while labor market and financial conditions are resilient. The Fed works with blunt tools and within limited frameworks. Its single national interest rate cannot target individual sectors like housing or specific prices, and its goal remains controlling inflation rather than propping up housing, or equity prices. The Fed also never established a clear framework for when and how to use its balance sheet as a monetary or financial-stability tool, or how quickly to unwind quantitative easing. AI is currently acting as an inflationary force, not a disinflationary one. It is driving a surge in capital expenditures that should push market rates somewhat higher to balance increased demand for capital. Patterson and Ferguson discuss the life of Alan Greenspan—including his daily engagement with the U.S. economy for over fifty years, his habit of tracking unconventional indicators like railroad car loadings, and the fact that he was more often right than wrong on major issues. As Ferguson notes, Greenspan was part of a group of economic policymakers in the second half of the 20th century that helped the U.S. economy grow globally, overcoming the Soviet Union. Mentioned on the Episode: Sebastian Mallaby, “Alan Greenspan Understood Power and Was Not Afraid to Wield It,” The Washington Post “Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

5 hari lalu

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42 minit
3 Jun

America at 250: The Marshall Plan, With Benn Steil

This episode unpacks how the Marshall Plan transformed postwar Western Europe and why security, allied cooperation, and forward thinking were the real keys to its enduring success. To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a yearlong series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics, CFR We Discuss: How the British Empire’s rapid collapse in early 1947 forced the United States to assume responsibility for Western European security. What George Marshall’s six weeks of negotiations in Moscow revealed about Soviet intentions in Germany and Western Europe. How Marshall deliberately crafted the plan’s offer to include the Soviet Union while ensuring Soviet leader Joseph Stalin would reject it. How Congress, controlled by Republicans, was persuaded to support a massive foreign aid program from a Democratic administration. Whether the Marshall Plan's $13 billion actually explains Western Europe’s economic recovery in the late 1940s. What role NATO played in making the Marshall Plan work, and why the French and British insisted on security guarantees before cooperating. Why security has to precede economic reconstruction—and what Afghanistan and Iraq reveal about ignoring that lesson. What Senator Henry Cabot Lodge Jr.’s 1947 prediction about sustained alliances tells us about the stakes of U.S. foreign policy today. Mentioned on the Episode: The 10 Best and Worst Decisions in U.S. Foreign Policy, Council on Foreign Relations Benn Steil, The Marshall Plan: Dawn of the Cold War George Kennan’s Long Telegram, February 22, 1946 “Sinews of Peace (‘Iron Curtain’ Speech).” at Westminster College, Fulton, Missouri, March 5, 1946. Harry Truman, “The Truman Doctrine,” Address to Congress, March 12, 1947 George C. Marshall, Commencement Address at Harvard University June 5, 1947 For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-at-250-the-marshall-plan Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

3 Jun

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40 minit
10 Jun

America’s Ebola Preparedness, With Thomas Bollyky

This episode unpacks how a major Ebola outbreak in Central Africa exposed critical gaps in global health surveillance and assesses U.S. preparedness for future biological threats. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Thomas J. Bollyky, Bloomberg Chair in Global Health; Senior Fellow for International Economics, Law, and Development; and Director of the Global Health Program We Discuss: The current state of the Ebola outbreak in the DRC and Uganda, and why the case count was already high by the time authorities reported it. Why governments are often slow to report cases during outbreaks, and what delayed reporting may have cost in this instance. Why the WHO has discouraged trade and travel restrictions. How the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO is shaping a more limited response. Whether China is stepping in to fill the global health leadership gap left by U.S. institutional withdrawal. What the politicization of mRNA vaccine technology means for the U.S. ability to respond to future outbreaks that require rapid vaccine deployment. How artificial intelligence creates opportunities to accelerate global health responses, but also introduces new risks like engineered pathogens. Mentioned on the Episode: CDC Health Alert: Ebola Disease Outbreak in the DRC and Uganda, May 19, 2026 WHO Disease Outbreak News: Ebola caused by Bundibugyo Virus, DRC and Uganda, May 21, 2026 WHO Declaration of Public Health Emergency of International Concern, May 17, 2026 Bollyky et al., "Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis," The Lancet CDC Mobilizes International Response Following Ebola Disease Outbreak, May 18, 2026 For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/americas-ebola-preparedness Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

10 Jun

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37 minit
10 Apr

Honey, I Tracked the War

This episode explores how drones, cell phones, and other widely-available intelligence tools are turning civilians and aid workers into frontline witnesses—documenting war in real time, guiding humanitarian aid, and helping build evidence that could power future war crimes cases. Host: Gabrielle Sierra, Director of Podcasting, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Anthony Vinci, Cofounder and CEO, Vico; Adjunct Senior Fellow, Technology and National Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Sam Vigersky, International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) We discuss: How drones, satellites, smartphones, and other widely-available tools are changing who gets to document war. How civilians are no longer just witnesses to conflict but are also recording attacks in real time and helping gather intelligence As Anthony Vinci puts it: “We’re becoming civilian spies.” How ordinary people are building digital evidence libraries online that may later support investigations into war crimes and accountability efforts. How drones are blurring the line between surveillance, intelligence gathering, and direct attacks on the battlefield. Why more access to information does not always lead to justice, especially when politics and institutions fail to act. How journalists, aid workers, and civilians face greater danger when documenting violence and sharing what they see. Why the growing flood of footage, data, and digital records is changing how audiences process war emotionally. Read more: Anthony Vinci, The Fourth Intelligence Revolution Sam Vigersky, “Beyond Conventional Aid: Institutionalizing Public-Private Partnership in Ukraine’s Humanitarian Response,” CFR.org “Counting the Dead,” Human Rights Watch “Listen, Run, Hide: How Russia Uses Quadcopter Drones to Hunt and Kill Civilians in Kherson, Ukraine,” Human Rights Watch “UN Commission Concludes that Russian Armed Forces’ Drone Attacks Against Civilians in Kherson Province Amount to Crimes Against Humanity of Murder,” United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner Want to keep up with Why It Matters? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes drop. Why It Matters is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the host and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

10 Apr

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39 minit
6 Mei

The Spillover: Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos?

Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) We discuss: How prediction markets are turning the world into a “casino” where you can bet on almost anything, from elections and geopolitics to sports and niche events. The evolution of prediction markets from academic tools to mainstream platforms shaping finance, politics, and culture. Why these markets sometimes outperform polls, where they fall short, and how they blur the line between forecasting and entertainment-driven gambling. As Rebecca Patterson asks: “Are these markets actually useful, or are they just gambling dressed up as forecasting?” The legal gray areas that are allowing prediction markets to expand so quickly and the growing risk of manipulation and insider bets. An anecdote from France, where someone allegedly tampered with a weather sensor to manipulate the outcome of a prediction market bet. How governments and regulators are struggling to keep up. Whether these markets truly reflect the “wisdom of crowds” or just loud, well-funded players. Mentioned on the Episode: Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” Federal Reserve Board “The Future of Financial Services Regulation: A Conversation with CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero,” Brookings Institution Adam Hoffer and Jacob Macumber-Rosin, “Expanded Sports Betting Legalization Would Generate Billions in Tax Revenue,” Tax Foundation Andy Serwer, “Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t,” Barron's Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

6 Mei

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47 minit
8 Apr

Russia’s Stakes in the Iran War, With Thomas Graham

This episode unpacks the opportunities and risks Moscow is facing amid the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Thomas Graham, Distinguished Fellow, CFR We Discuss: Whether Russia and Iran are true allies, or simply friends of convenience. How decades of rivalry and recent convergence shaped the current Moscow-Tehran relationship. Why Russia's strategic partnership with Iran excludes a mutual defense obligation. What role Russian intelligence sharing may be playing on the Middle East battlefield. How rising oil prices help Russia in the short term but carry serious long-term economic risks. Whether keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed serves Moscow's interest. How Operation Epic Fury has stalled peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, and complicated weapons supply to Kyiv. Mentioned on the Episode: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, July 14, 2015 Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, January 17, 2025 For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/russias-stakes-in-the-iran-war Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

8 Apr

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35 minit
29 Apr

How to Build an American Foreign Policy, With Michael Mandelbaum

This episode unpacks three enduring pillars that have defined U.S. foreign policy from the nation’s founding to today: ideology, economic statecraft, and democratic accountability. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Michael Mandelbaum, Professor Emeritus of American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Author, The American Way of Foreign Policy: Ideology, Economics, Democracy We Discuss: Whether the United States can be said to have a coherent foreign policy "personality". How geographic and geopolitical advantages have historically enabled a more ideological U.S. foreign policy than most countries can afford. Whether ideology in U.S. foreign policy represents genuine conviction or merely a veneer for self-interest. What the post-Cold War era reveals as the "golden age of foreign policy of ideas”. What drives the persistent American tendency toward economic statecraft, sanctions, and “mirror imaging”. How public opinion, interest groups, political parties, and elections influence foreign policy decisionmaking. Whether President Trump's foreign policy fits within—or represents a departure from—the three enduring American traditions in U.S. foreign policy. Mentioned on the Episode: The American Way of Foreign Policy: Ideology, Economics, Democracy by Michael Mandelbaum (Oxford University Press, 2025) Embargo Act of 1807 George W. Bush, Second Inaugural Address, January 20, 2005 Vice President JD Vance, Remarks at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2025 Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Remarks at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2026 For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/how-to-build-an-american-foreign-policy Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

29 Apr

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33 minit
1 Apr

Gulf States Under Fire, With Mina Al-Oraibi

This episode unpacks how the war with Iran will affect the future of the Gulf countries’ security and economic prosperity. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Mina Al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief, The National We Discuss: Whether Gulf states supported or opposed the war with Iran and their role in the intensive diplomatic efforts to avoid conflict before it began. How Iran’s retaliation expanded the war into the Gulf, targeting civilian infrastructure, energy hubs, and global transit points. The scale of drone and missile attacks across the region, and what they reveal about modern asymmetric warfare. Who is actually in charge in Iran, and how the IRGC is shaping decision-making and escalation. Why regime change in Iran remains unlikely, despite internal unrest and external pressure. Why Gulf leaders don’t want a simple ceasefire, but rather a long-term security reset that addresses Iran’s missile and drone programs. How the war is stress-testing Gulf economies and their long-term bets on stability, globalization, and diversification. Mentioned on the Episode: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, July 14, 2015 Vibhu Mishra, "Security Council Adopts Gulf-Backed Resolution Condemning Iran Attacks; Russia Bid Fails," United Nations News For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/gulf-states-under-fire Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

1 Apr

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38 minit
22 Apr

America at 250: The Spanish-American War, With H.W. Brands

This episode unpacks the causes, key events, and consequences of the Spanish-American War, highlighting how it shaped U.S. foreign policy into the modern era. To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a year-long series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: H.W. Brands, Jack S. Blanton Sr. Chair in History, The University of Texas at Austin We Discuss: What drove the United States toward assertive foreign policy in the 1890s. Who the "jingoes" were and how American leaders pushed for American power abroad. Whether access to China drove American interest in Spain's Pacific empire. Why the USS Maine explosion changed the political calculus for entering a war with Spain. What the Teller Amendment accomplished and what its drafters failed to anticipate. Whether the annexation of the Philippines was ultimately the least-bad option for the Filipino people. What the Spanish-American War's legacy reveals about how the United States became—and chose to remain—a global power. Mentioned on the Episode: Monroe Doctrine, December 2, 1823 McKinley's First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1897 Theodore Roosevelt, Naval War College Address, June 2, 1897 The Teller Amendment, April 19, 1898 For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-at-250-the-spanish-american-war Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

22 Apr

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38 minit
15 Apr

What Comes Next After Failed U.S.-Iran Talks, With Elliott Abrams

This episode unpacks the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad and the prospect of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, CFR We Discuss: What transpired during the U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad. Whether both sides abandoned their own preconditions before talks began. How unusually senior and small the negotiating delegations were. What the logic and mechanics of the U.S. naval blockade are. Why other countries have not joined the blockade and may resist it. What the Arab Gulf states are privately urging Washington to do. Whether Israel and the U.S. share the same goals regarding the Iranian regime. Mentioned on the Episode: Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 11, 2026 Harry Sekulich and Kate Whannel, "Starmer Says UK Will Not Join Trump's Blockade of Iran's Ports," BBC Defense Technical Information Agency, "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," October 1, 2007 For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/what-comes-next-after-failed-us-iran-talks Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

15 Apr

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33 minit

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