SEA of Startups

Decoding the Pulse of Founders, Capital & Conviction in Southeast Asia.

Real, raw, relatable takes on Southeast Asian startups. One investor, the week's news, no script. seaofstartups.substack.com

  1. 4 hr ago

    Next, Owned by Whom?

    As you read this, thousands of people are in a convention hall in Bangkok. Techsauce Global Summit, 26 to 28 August, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center. Three hundred sessions, hundreds of exhibitors, and one word on every lanyard and every panel title. The word is next. The race to the next model, the next unicorn, the next Thailand. So I want to be a little contrarian this week and not talk about next. I want to talk about what Thailand has already won, because it has won real things and nobody on that main stage is going to say them plainly. And then I want to ask the only question that actually matters when the music is this loud and the capital is this cheap. Not what is next. Next, owned by whom? Because here is the number I cannot get out of my head. This year Thailand pulled in more than two billion US dollars of AI data centre money. Microsoft, Google, ByteDance, the whole parade. Thai AI startups, the actual companies with founders and cap tables, raised about four million. Same country. Same year. Two billion and four million. Say those back to back and you barely need the rest of this piece. But stick around, because the gap between them explains almost everything about Thai tech right now. The country is the host, not the guest of honour Start with the money, because a lot of it is real. Microsoft has committed over a billion dollars to Thai cloud, AI and data centres running from 2026 through 2028. Google opened a Bangkok cloud region in January and put a number on it, forty billion dollars of economic value over five years. ByteDance is building too. National IT spend this year is heading toward 1.1 trillion baht. If you are the Thai government, this looks like winning. The photos are great. Prime minister, hard hats, ribbon, a rendering of a big grey building with a lot of cooling on the roof. I want to be fair, because this is not nothing. Data centres mean construction, power upgrades, some high-skilled jobs, a reason for engineers to stay in the country. Real assets get built. That matters. But I have been doing this long enough to have one reflex when a big number lands on the table. I ask who owns the thing the number is attached to. So let us do that. Who owns the compute in those buildings? Microsoft, Google, ByteDance. Who owns the models running on it? The same names. Who owns the margin, the recurring, high-fat software margin that compounds for twenty years? The same names again. And what does Thailand own? The land. The power lines. The water. The local joint venture partner who helped with the permits. The electricity bill. There is a phrase for this and it is not AI hub. It is compute arbitrage. Thailand is renting out cheap power, cheap land and a plugged-in population of seventy million to companies headquartered eight thousand miles away. The country is the host. It is not the guest of honour. Now hold that against the four million dollars that actual Thai AI founders raised this year, per DealStreetAsia data. A country can host the entire weight of global AI on its soil and fund almost none of its own. Capex or equity: the question to ask all week Here is the part I want founders to hear, because it is where this gets useful and not just cynical. When you are at Techsauce this week, or reading about it afterwards, and somebody says Thailand’s AI investment hit record levels, stop and ask them one thing. Capex or equity? Data centre capex is offshore-owned infrastructure. Startup equity is Thai-owned companies. They are two completely different things, and this week they will be blended into one flattering headline every single time. Capex builds someone else’s asset on your land. Equity builds your asset. Full stop. The win for Thailand is not the ribbon cutting. It is the day a Thai company owns a real layer of this, something above the substation and the security fence. Until then, be honest about what you are celebrating. You are celebrating being a very good landlord. There is nothing wrong with being a landlord. Ask Singapore. But a landlord does not get wealthy the way the tenant does, and the tenants here are trillion-dollar American software companies. Just know which side of the lease you are on. The champion, and the question underwriters will circle If the hyperscalers own the infrastructure, where is the Thai champion? Where is the homegrown AI company we can actually point to? There is one. It is called Amity. And it is genuinely impressive, which is what makes this interesting. I am not here to knock it. I am here to hold it up to the light. Amity raised a hundred million dollar Series D in March, one of the largest generative AI rounds in all of Southeast Asia. Revenue over a hundred million a year, up more than tenfold since 2022, targeting two hundred million by the end of this year, and lining up an IPO in 2027. Enterprise AI, chatbots and agents for big organisations: banks, government, retail. By any measure this is a real company. Not a deck and a dream. Revenue. Now here is the detail that tells you a lot about how Thai tech actually works. Amity was founded by Korawad Chearavanont, grandson of the founder of CP Group and son of CP Group’s current chief executive. CP is the largest private company in Thailand. It owns 7-Eleven across the country. It is the majority owner of True, one of the two big telcos. It is in food, agriculture, retail and property, and basically everything you touch in a Thai day. So picture the founding conditions of this startup. You are building an enterprise AI company, and your first potential customers include the biggest convenience store operator in the country, one of the two largest telcos, and a web of banks and companies that all sit inside or next to your family’s group. CP All, the 7-Eleven operator, True and PTT all show up as Amity clients. I need to be precise here, because the lazy version of this take is wrong and I do not want to do the lazy version. The lazy version is that it is just selling to daddy’s companies. That is not accurate. Reporting is clear that only about 35 to 40 percent of Amity’s revenue is generated in Thailand at all, and the company says the majority of its revenue and customers are now outside Thailand entirely. So it is not a captive shell. It has gone and won business in other markets. Credit where it is due, and the accurate version is more interesting than the lazy one anyway. Amity may have been born captive and then grown out of it. A family conglomerate handed a young founder the one thing no other founder in Bangkok can get at any price: a guaranteed home market. Banks, state enterprises, 7-Eleven and True as your first reference points, all while you are still figuring out the product. In enterprise software, a trusted first customer who will not churn while you learn is extremely valuable. He got a whole portfolio of them at the birth of the company. And look, if I am the investor writing that Series D cheque, I do not hate this. A de-risked launch market is a feature. It is plausibly why the thing scaled from ten million to a hundred million of revenue in two years, after taking almost a decade to reach the first ten. The family base was the launch pad. But here is the question I would put on the table if I were sitting across from them, and it is the question underwriters are going to circle before that 2027 IPO. How much of that hundred million plus is arm’s length, won on the merits from customers who could have picked anyone? And how much is related party, business that flows because of the name on the building? That is not an attack. That is diligence. It is the single most important number in the whole story and it is the one that never makes the press release. If most of it is arm’s length, Amity is a genuine Southeast Asian software champion, and I would love to say that loudly. If a big chunk of it is the family buying from the family, then the valuation is telling you a story the revenue quality does not back up. I do not know the answer. Neither do you, and neither does most of that convention hall. But now you know the question. When a Thai founder tells you their startup is crushing it with enterprise logos, the first thing to gently ask is: whose enterprise? And for the ninety-nine percent of Thai founders who do not have a billionaire relative, the lesson is brutal and important. Your hardest first year is finding a customer who will trust you before you have proof. Amity basically skipped that year. You will not. Plan for it. First to adopt is not the same as first to win Here is where Thailand genuinely leads, and where the lead is thinner than it looks. Thailand has the highest AI adoption in ASEAN. Not second, first. An AWS report this year puts it plainly: 43 percent of Thai businesses now use AI consistently, up from 32 percent a year ago. Ninety percent of Thai students use generative AI. The country took to this faster than anyone else in the region. If you only read the headline, Thailand looks like it is running away with it. Then you read the next line, and the next line is the whole story in one statistic. Seventy-four percent of those adopters are stuck at what the report calls the basic stage. Off-the-shelf chatbots, ready-made tools, someone in the office with ChatGPT open in a tab. A few people paste things into it. The actual work, the workflows, the decisions, the output, has not really changed. Longtime listeners will remember Tiwa York on this show calling this exact thing the level 1.5 trap. A company where AI is bookmarked, mentioned in the strategy deck, played with by a few keen people, and yet nothing downstream is different. He called it adoption theatre. Thailand has just gone and proven you can run adoption theatre at the scale of an entire nation. I want to be careful, because first to adopt is not worthless. It means the workforce is not scared of these tools. It means a founder in Bangkok is selling in

    Next, Owned by Whom?
  2. 19 Aug

    Industrial Policy in a Startup Jersey

    There is a company in Singapore that has raised close to half a billion US dollars and has never sold a single thing. Not a small amount of revenue. None. It has a chip. It has a box. It has a founder story, a serious set of engineers, and one of the bigger names in Singaporean venture writing the cheque. What it does not have is a customer you can name or a price you can look up. And here is the part that should make you sit up. That is not a scandal. In 2026, that is a business model. So this one is about a Singapore chip company called Acrab. But Acrab is really just the door. Behind it sits the question every founder and every investor in this region needs an answer to. When a company raises hundreds of millions before it has a product in the market, is that smart money seeing the future early, or is it the dumbest money in history dressed in a lab coat? And underneath that, something more practical. This whole idea of running powerful AI on a small box on your desk instead of in the cloud. Is it real, or is it a slide in a deck? The box On 6 August, Acrab closed a $130 million Series B led by Vertex Ventures SEA and India, together with Vertex Growth. Hold that name, Vertex, in your head. We are coming back to it, and it turns out to be the most interesting thing in the whole story. That round took Acrab past $480 million in total funding. The company was founded in 2024 and only came out of stealth this year. By its own description it has visible paths to industrial deployments and expects revenue within 2026. Read that last part again. Expects revenue within 2026 is a very polite, very well lawyered way of saying we have not made any money yet. So what did they build? This is where it gets genuinely interesting, and I do not want to be cynical about the engineering, because the engineering looks real. The chip is called GELIX 1. It is a system on a chip built on a 5 nanometre process, which is a serious modern manufacturing node, pairing a 20 core Arm CPU with a dedicated neural processing unit and 273 gigabytes per second of unified memory bandwidth. If none of those words mean anything to you, here is the translation. This is a real piece of high end silicon, not a science project. Around it they built a product called Agent Box. Think of it as a small computer that sits on your desk and runs AI models locally, on the device, without sending your data off to a data centre somewhere. Acrab says it is designed to support models in the 100 billion parameter class, with persistent memory, multimodal input, and agents that actually do things, all running on the box in front of you. That is the pitch. Now let me do the part I actually get paid to do, which is not believe the pitch. The headline number is a benchmark. Acrab claims its chip processed a prompt at 1,416.8 tokens per second, against 188.9 on a Mac Mini with an M4 Pro. Roughly seven and a half times faster than a high end Apple machine. Sounds incredible. It might be. But let me tell you what that number actually is, because this is where you earn the right to have an opinion. That measurement is something called prefill. Prefill is the speed at which the machine reads and digests your question before it starts answering. It is the reading phase, not the writing phase. It is genuinely useful, and it is exactly one half of the job. The other half, where the machine generates the answer token by token, is called decode. Acrab has not published its decode rate. It has not published time to first token. It has not published power consumption. It has not published thermal data. And crucially, nobody independent has verified any of it. Every one of these numbers comes from Acrab. Even the tech press covering the launch flagged this openly. The claim is prefill only. It is not proof the chip is seven and a half times faster at everything. It is proof it is fast at one specific thing, in one specific test, that the company designed. And the 100 billion parameter claim, the one doing the work in every headline, notice the wording. Designed to support. Not runs. Not we measured it running a 100 billion parameter model at this speed while drawing this many watts. Designed to support is a target, not a result. I am not saying anyone is lying, and I want to be clear about that. I am saying that as of today, GELIX 1 is in validation. It is chasing its first industrial adoption. The first market is the smart cockpit inside cars. No named customer, no public price, revenue as a forecast. So here is your honest scorecard on the product. Real chip, real team, one genuinely fast benchmark on the reading half of the task, and the entire set of numbers that would tell you whether this actually works quietly missing. Half a billion for nothing is now normal Before you laugh at half a billion dollars for a company with no revenue, look at what is happening everywhere else. Acrab is not the strange one. Acrab is the small one. San Francisco. Safe Superintelligence, founded by Ilya Sutskever, formerly chief scientist at OpenAI, raised $2 billion at a $32 billion valuation. Around 50 employees. No product. No published research. And it has said out loud, on purpose, that it does not intend to ship anything until its mission is complete. Nvidia is one of its backers. Two billion dollars, fifty people, nothing to sell, by design. Thinking Machines, founded by Mira Murati, formerly chief technology officer at OpenAI, raised roughly $2 billion at a $12 billion valuation, then another $5 billion at $50 billion. To its credit it did finally ship a model in July. But it raised the first two billion on a founder name and a thesis, not on a product. And this is not fringe. In 2025, OpenAI and Anthropic between them absorbed around 14 percent of every venture dollar invested anywhere on earth. Anthropic was valued at $965 billion by May this year. The money is not spread out. It is piling into a handful of bets on faith. That is America. Here is where I actually wanted to take this, because Asia is running the same playbook with local accents, and almost nobody here describes it that way. Tokyo. Sakana AI raised $135 million at a $2.65 billion valuation, making it the most valuable startup in Japan. And here is the elegant part. Sakana’s entire philosophy is small. Cheap, efficient models trained on small datasets, tuned to the Japanese language and Japanese business. One of its founders, Llion Jones, co-wrote the original research paper that created the modern AI boom. Rich valuation, thin revenue, sold on pedigree and a thesis that says bigger is not always better. Sit with that, because it is the same bet Acrab is making. The anti-giant bet. Do more with less. Beijing. Moonshot AI raised $2 billion at a $20 billion valuation and is reportedly chasing $30 billion. But here is the twist, and this is the one that should sting. Moonshot is not pre-revenue. Its annualised recurring revenue passed $200 million in April. Its rivals Zhipu and MiniMax already listed in Hong Kong in January. The Chinese champions are not raising on faith. They are raising, making money, and ringing the opening bell. Bangalore. India has decided AI is a sovereignty question. Sarvam raised $234 million at a $1.5 billion valuation, led by the Indian IT giant HCLTech. And Ola’s founder Bhavish Aggarwal is building Krutrim, which is not just making models but building its own chips and its own computing infrastructure. That is a direct echo of what Acrab is doing, wrapped in the flag of national self-reliance. Put the map together. Silicon Valley is doing pre-product on pure faith. Japan is pricing efficiency on pedigree. China is already making money and ringing the bell. India is treating this as national security. And Southeast Asia’s entry into the contest is a box from Singapore that runs AI models on your desk. Pre-revenue is not pre-product One distinction, and it is the difference between a lazy take on this and a correct one. Pre-revenue is not the same as pre-product. Safe Superintelligence has literally nothing to ship, deliberately. Acrab has a chip and it has a box. And a chip company is not a model company. Silicon costs a fortune before you make a single dollar, because you have to design it and manufacture it long before anyone can buy it. That is the nature of hardware, not a warning sign. So if you are going to judge Acrab, do not judge it against a software lab in California. Judge it against Sakana in Tokyo and Krutrim in Bangalore. Judge it against the other people trying to build hardware and sovereignty in Asia. That is the fairer fight. Where the engine was built So who runs it? The chief executive is Dr Ken Phua, the former co-chief executive of Arm China. He spent two decades at Arm and stepped in to co-run its China business in 2020, during a very messy boardroom fight. Let that land. The technical spine of this Singaporean deep tech contender was built at the top of Arm China. I want to be careful and fair here, because this is exactly the kind of thing this show exists to say out loud without turning it into a smear. That is a real, world class credential. It is not a red flag on its own. But it is the same thread we pulled on with Manus and with DayOne. When something is wearing a Singapore jersey, it is always worth asking where the engine was actually built. Here, the engine has an Arm China lineage. There is also a small mystery I could not fully close. A couple of outlets name someone called Tian Qi as the 2024 founder, and that name appears almost nowhere else, while Phua is the public face. I am flagging it, not asserting it. If you know who else is in there, tell me. So is edge AI real, or is it a slide? Now the question the whole thing hangs on, in the plainest language I can manage. Edge AI just means running the model on the device in front of you, instead of sending your request over the internet to a giant data centre and waiting for the answer to bounce back

    Industrial Policy in a Startup Jersey
  3. 13 Aug

    A salary is not ownership

    In 2022, at the Vietnam Venture Summit, forty one funds stood up and pledged one and a half billion dollars for Vietnamese startups. The pledge covered the three years from 2023 to 2025. Through May of this year, Vietnamese founders raised twenty eight point eight million dollars. Ten rounds. And next month, on the twenty first of September, FTSE Russell reclassifies Vietnam from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market. FTSE’s own estimate is that about six billion dollars of passive index money follows it in. Six billion dollars, arriving on a scheduled date, into the stock exchange. Twenty eight point eight million, across five months, into companies. So I do not want to hear that Vietnam has a funding problem. Vietnam is about to be soaked in money. It is just the wrong money. I will defend this next line anywhere. Vietnam has the best engineering talent base in Southeast Asia. It also spent recent years being told it was the next China, then the next India, then the next Indonesia, then whatever the next thing was that year. Every one of those labels pulled in capital. Not one of them pulled in the kind of capital that funds a company and then hangs around for eight or ten years to find out whether it worked. This is not about how much money there is. It is about what kind. The amount was never the problem. * * * One. Four taps, and the one that is off There are four ways money flows into Vietnam right now. Three of them are running hard. One has been turned off. Almost every story you read about the country confuses them. Tap one is venture capital, and that is the one that is off. Through May, Vietnamese startups raised twenty eight point eight million dollars across ten equity rounds. In the same period last year it was two hundred and twenty seven million across fifteen rounds. Deal count barely moved. Deal value fell about eighty seven percent. Those are Tracxn numbers and they run through May, not through the full year, and I am going to keep saying that, because a five month figure is not a year. Let me be fair about the baseline, because this is where people overcook the story. Vietnam was never a billion dollar a year venture market. Full year 2024 was four hundred and ninety four million dollars across sixty eight deals. So this is not a collapse from a great height. It is something more boring and more serious. Sixty eight deals a year became ten deals in five months. That is roughly one venture round every two weeks, in a country of a hundred million people, with the deepest engineering talent pool in the region. And Vietnam is not alone in it. Across Southeast Asia the first half was thin. The regional dollar totals held up because people keep stuffing them with data centre deals that should never have been in a startup funding report in the first place. Strip those out and it is down across the board. Vietnam is the sharpest version of a regional problem, not a Vietnamese peculiarity. Tap two is index money, and it is running hard. In April, FTSE Russell confirmed the upgrade, effective the twenty first of September and phased into the global index series through next year. FTSE estimates about six billion dollars of inflows from passive trackers. The World Bank puts near term flows at about five billion and says the long term potential could reach twenty five billion by 2030. Those are their numbers, not mine, and both institutions have an interest in the story being good, so hold them loosely. Even at half those figures it is the largest single capital event in Vietnam’s modern financial history. Here is the part nobody says out loud. Ask what passive money actually does. It buys the index by a pre-designed weighting. It does not read a deck. It does not take a meeting. It does not care who the founder is or what the product does. It buys the listed companies in proportion to their weight, which in Vietnam means banks, property and retail. And when it leaves, it leaves the same way, by weight, on a rebalance date, regardless of how good your quarter was. Not one dollar of that six billion is available to a founder with a working product and eighteen months of runway. Not one. It is not that kind of money. Tap three is borrowed retail money, and it is running very hard. Margin lending at Vietnamese brokerages hit about four hundred and forty five trillion dong at the end of the second quarter, roughly sixteen point nine billion dollars. At the start of 2023 it was one hundred and twenty five trillion. Three and a half times more borrowed money in three years. This is the bit that should make you sit up. That borrowed money is now the main thing absorbing foreign selling. When overseas funds sell Vietnamese stocks, it is domestic retail investors, on credit, taking the other side. The counterargument is a real one. The prevailing view among Vietnamese analysts is that this is not yet a problem: brokerages have strengthened their buffers, July’s margin calls were localised, forced selling did not spread. That is the majority position, held by people who know that market far better than I do. My read is simpler. When the buyer holding your market up is borrowing to do it, your market is not deep. It is propped. Contained and safe are different words, and the gap between them is where people lose money. Borrowed positions unwind faster than anyone models them. Tap four is public listings, and it is reopening hard. Four Vietnamese IPOs raised more than eight hundred and thirty million dollars in the first half of this year, at a combined market value just under seven billion. I am going to hold that one, because tap four tells you the most and it deserves its own section. Put the four side by side. Vietnam has built a functioning machine for turning domestic savings into listed equity. It has built almost nothing for turning savings into new companies. Both get called a capital market. Only one of them compounds into industries that did not exist before. Think about what that does to a talented twenty seven year old in Hanoi who wants to build something. The shortest path to capital is not a seed round, because there are ten of those a year. It is a salaried job at a multinational, a role inside a listed group, or a family business with a balance sheet. Every one of those choices is rational. Individually they are all the right call. Collectively they are how you end up with a country that has world class engineers and no company anyone outside the country can name. * * * Two. The world found Vietnam’s engineers and decided to rent them Vietnam has more than eighteen thousand four hundred specialised AI engineers, the largest pool in Southeast Asia. Demand for them is running at about two and a half times where it was in 2023. On technical and system design assessments, the top tier score within about eight percent of their American peers, at sixty to eighty percent lower cost. Disclosure on those figures, because it matters. Most of them come from recruitment firms and offshore advisory shops, which are businesses that exist to sell you a Vietnamese engineering team. Take the direction as real and the decimal places as marketing. Even discounted heavily the picture holds. This is a deep, cheap, genuinely excellent engineering base, and the world knows it. Vietnam is an exporter of talent. Look at what the world is doing with it. Nvidia has been expanding its hiring in Vietnam across manufacturing and operations roles tied to high end GPUs, with Foxconn reported as a possible partner, and it keeps AI model development roles in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Be careful here, because this is exactly the kind of story that gets inflated in a group chat by Friday. Nvidia has not announced a factory in Vietnam. What is reported is hiring, in roles consistent with more advanced work. That is a signal, not an announcement. But take the signal seriously, because it tells you the whole story in one move. The world found Vietnam’s engineers, and it decided to rent them. Nobody in this story is the villain. Nvidia hiring hundreds of engineers in Hanoi is good for Hanoi and good for those engineers. Hard currency, frontier work, none of the risk. A twenty nine year old with a mortgage and a kid who takes that job over a startup salary is making the correct choice, given the options in front of them. The failure is that nobody local ever put a competing offer on the table. And I want to be even handed about whose fault that is, because it is not only the money’s fault. Investors in this region got risk averse and clustered around whatever was already working, which is how you get ten rounds in five months. Founders own a piece of it too. Plenty of Vietnamese founders spent the last few years priced for a market that stopped existing in 2022, holding out for a valuation that was available once and is not available now. A round that closes is worth more than a valuation you are still defending. That is not investor propaganda. That is arithmetic about runway. The reporting around Vietnam’s funding reset names constraints that are unglamorous and real: reluctance to hire foreign expertise, language barriers, and legal and foreign exchange rules that make a Vietnamese entity harder to fund than a Singapore one. Some of that is business culture and takes a generation. Some of it is paperwork and could be fixed inside a year. In fairness, the government has made real moves on the rules, and the direction of travel is good. But underneath all of it sits one sentence, and it is the sentence I would put on the wall of every ministry in the region, and every university. A salary is not ownership. When an engineer in Hanoi builds something excellent on an offshore contract, the value of what they built shows up on somebody else’s cap table, in somebody else’s currency, in a company listed on somebody else’s exchange. They get a good wage, which is not nothing, especially if you remember wha

  4. 5 Aug

    Malaysia does not have a money problem

    On the twenty seventh of July, in a bank tower in Petaling Jaya, the Malaysian government announced more than five billion ringgit of financing for Malaysian startups. It has been a week. I still cannot tell you who is giving it. Not because it is a secret. Because nobody published the list. The minister said fifteen organisations. The fullest account any newspaper ran named twelve, and it introduced them with the word “among”. So somewhere out there are three institutions holding a share of five billion ringgit for Malaysian founders, and not one outlet in the country can tell you their names. Now, I am not going to spend this piece telling you Malaysia has no money. That is the lazy version and it is not true. Malaysia has enormous amounts of money. Thirty billion ringgit sits in committed venture and private equity funds, according to the Securities Commission. A hundred and sixty billion ringgit of data centres is going up in Johor. And two weeks before that press conference, Malaysian retail investors queued up with one point four billion ringgit in cash to buy shares in one small AI company on the ACE Market. One point four billion. For a company raising about twenty million. So the money is here. The appetite for risk is here. Malaysians will absolutely gamble. What almost nobody in this country will do is write a two million ringgit cheque into a company with no revenue and then wait eight years to find out if they were wrong. That is not a funding gap. That is a temperament gap. And you cannot fix a temperament gap with a press release. One. Fifteen organisations, twelve names Start with what was actually announced, because the detail is better than the headline. The event was called TechnoMART Malaysia: High Tech Financing 2026. It was run by MOSTI, the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, and launched by the minister, Datuk Chang Lih Kang, on the twenty seventh of July at Menara MBSB Bank in Petaling Jaya. His words, and I want to be fair and quote him properly: “We have connected fifteen organisations, including funding agencies and financial institutions. Together, they provide funding worth about five billion ringgit to support our startups and innovators.” Four things about that sentence. First, the verb. He said connected. Not allocated. Not committed. Not budgeted. Connected. And he was straight about it when a reporter pushed him, because a reporter did ask whether the five billion was for this year alone. His answer was that it is an aggregated funding pool from the participating organisations, covering about a year and a half. Aggregated is doing a lot of work there. It means nobody created a fund. Fifteen institutions added up the financing capacity they already had on their books, over eighteen months, and someone put the total on a banner. Not one ringgit changed hands on the twenty seventh of July. Second, and to his credit, the minister said the quiet part himself. He said the financing is not distributed automatically, and that it is subject to each institution’s own eligibility requirements. That is an honest caveat and he did not have to offer it. Credit where it is due. But sit with what it means. There is no single door. There are fifteen doors, and behind each one is a different credit committee with a different form, a different collateral test, and a different definition of the word startup. Third, TechnoMART is not new. It has been running since 2018 and has delivered more than thirty programmes. It is a matchmaking platform. It puts technology companies in a room with financiers. That is a genuinely useful thing to do, and I want to say so plainly, because the commercialisation gap in Malaysia is real. The minister called it the valley of death, and he is right that it exists. It is just not a new pot of money. It got reported like one. Fourth, the list. This is where it stops being funny. New Straits Times named three participants: MRANTI, MBSB Bank and EXIM Bank. Business Today added MIDF. Malaysia Tribune ran the longest list and named twelve: Cradle, SME Bank, Malaysia Debt Ventures, Permodalan Negeri Selangor, MRANTI, Bioeconomy Corporation, ADFIM, EXIM Bank, MTDC, Venture Tech, Kumpulan Modal Perdana and PMB Tijari. Put every outlet together and you get fourteen distinct names, and not one of those reports claims to be the complete list. Look at what is on it. SME Bank. EXIM Bank. Malaysia Debt Ventures. MBSB. MIDF. Those are lenders. Development banks. Institutions whose entire discipline is getting the principal back. There is real equity in there too, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. Cradle, MTDC, Venture Tech and Kumpulan Modal Perdana are equity vehicles. The minister himself listed the instruments: grants, equity, debt, guarantees, blended finance and working capital. Equity is in the mix. What nobody has published is how much of the five billion is equity. There is no split. Not by instrument, not by institution, not by stage. You are told the total and asked to be impressed. And one of the fifteen is ADFIM, the Association of Development Finance Institutions of Malaysia. It is a trade body. It represents lenders. It does not lend. So we are already at fourteen funders and a members’ club. Two. The bank in the lobby Here is the part that actually changed how I read this story. Five days later, the same New Straits Times reporter filed a second piece on a different subject. MBSB Bank, the bank that hosted the event in its own tower, announced it is committing four billion ringgit to what it calls high growth, high value industries. One billion each for rail, aerospace, automotive and renewable energy. And the chairman gave that quote, in the paper’s own words, “on the sidelines of the TechnoMART Malaysia: High Tech Financing 2026 event”. Same room. Same day. I want to be careful here, because this matters and I am not going to overstate it. Neither article says MBSB’s four billion is part of MOSTI’s five billion. No source links them. I chased this and could not close it, because MOSTI never published a breakdown. So there are two possibilities, and you can pick either one. Possibility one. The four billion is inside the five billion. In which case eighty percent of Malaysia’s headline startup financing pool is one bank’s sector lending strategy, and the startups in question are rail suppliers and solar farms. Possibility two. It is separate. In which case MOSTI’s five billion is spread even thinner across the other fourteen institutions than it already looked. There is no third possibility where this number means what the headline said it meant. And one more detail, because it is the most telling sentence in the whole story. MBSB described this push as diversifying beyond its traditional strength in property financing. A property lender is moving into industrial lending. That is a perfectly sensible corporate strategy and I have no quarrel with it. It is just not startup capital, and it got filed under startup capital. Three. Thirty billion committed, 2.8 billion out the door So much for the announcement. Now ask what happened last year, with the money that already exists. The Securities Commission published its capital market masterplan in March. In it is a number that should be the headline of every Malaysian startup story for the next twelve months, and I have seen almost nobody use it. At the end of 2025, Malaysian venture capital and private equity together held thirty point one billion ringgit in committed funds. In that same year, venture and private equity together deployed two point eight billion ringgit, across a hundred and seventeen deals. Thirty billion committed. Two point eight billion out the door. That is under ten percent. And be careful with that two point eight, because I am going to be careful with it. That is venture and private equity combined. The venture slice on its own is smaller. Of the thirty billion committed, only about six billion is venture at all. The other twenty four is private equity, which buys profitable companies. Different animal, different risk, different sport. So when a minister stands up and says Malaysia needs more financing for startups, the honest response is: does it? There is thirty billion ringgit sitting in committed funds in this country and it moved two point eight billion in a year. Adding a fifteen door lending pool to that does not solve the problem. It is the wrong end of the pipe. If you want the sharpest version of this, look at Jelawang Capital. Jelawang is Khazanah’s national fund of funds. It was set up specifically to fix this. One billion ringgit, mandated to back Malaysian venture managers so they can back Malaysian founders. Exactly the right instrument. Genuinely the right idea. I have no criticism of the design. In February, Khazanah reported the results for the year to the end of December. Its first five fund managers had backed more than ten startups, and crowded in about thirty million ringgit. Thirty million. Ten companies. From a one billion ringgit national fund of funds. Fund of funds are slow by design. First five managers, early days, capital calls take years. That is all true and I will defend it. But hold that thirty million next to a five billion ringgit banner and tell me which number describes Malaysia today. Four. Fifty billion of debt, under a billion of equity You can see the same shape in the budget. Budget 2026 raised the combined equity allocation across KWAP’s Dana Perintis and Khazanah’s Jelawang to seven hundred and fifty million ringgit. Cradle got fifty five million for equity programmes. The co-investment fund got two hundred million. In that same budget: over fifty billion ringgit in loans and guarantees for entrepreneurs. Fifty billion of debt. Under a billion of equity. That is the Malaysian capital stack in two numbers. And I understand why. Debt is politically easy. A guarantee costs nothing until it is calle

  5. 29 Jul

    When the bust ends in a courtroom

    For a decade, Indonesia was not a story about Southeast Asia. It was the story. Two hundred and eighty million people, most of them young, most of them coming online for the first time with a phone in their hand. Gojek, Tokopedia, a parade of unicorns. Every global fund with a Southeast Asia slide put Jakarta in the middle of it, and everybody wanted in. In 2021, at the peak, Indonesian startups raised about $6.9 billion. Not the region. Indonesia by itself. Last year, the whole country raised $355.7 million across 91 deals. That is roughly five cents on the dollar. Indonesia, the giant, the centre of the entire regional pitch, now raises less venture money in a year than Vietnam does, and less in a year than Singapore raises in a month. The music stopped and the bubble burst. That part is not the interesting part. Bubbles burst everywhere. What is interesting is what comes next, and in Indonesia three things arrived at once. The courts came for the founders. The regulator came for the funds. And the smart money quietly started packing its bags. That is the reckoning. Let us walk through it. One. How the balloon got that big Before we bury this thing, we have to be honest about how it got so big in the first place, because a bubble this size is never one person’s fault. It is a whole system agreeing not to look too closely. I am going to be honest about my own side of the table, because that is the only way this ends up being fair. You back a startup. Six months later, twelve months later, eighteen months later, another fund puts money in, hopefully at a higher price. And just like that, on your books, your stake is worth more. You have made money on paper. You did not sell anything. You did not return a cent to anyone. But the number on your page went up. That paper number is the single most valuable thing you own, because it is what you carry into the room when you go and raise your next fund. A bigger fund. And a bigger fund pays you a bigger management fee, in cash, this year, whether or not a single rupiah ever comes back to an investor. So let me say the quiet part plainly. These funds spent years marking their own books up to prices that only ever lived on paper, because that paper is what raises a bigger fund and pays a bigger fee. Every asset class on earth plays some version of this game. Private equity plays it. Hedge funds play it. Real estate plays it. Indonesian venture’s bad luck was that here the bubble actually burst, so everyone found out at once. And when everyone marks everything up, nobody wants to be the person who checks. When eFishery was carried on everyone’s books at unicorn prices, every investor holding it got to wave that markup around and raise more. The number made everyone richer on paper. So who exactly was going to drive out to the fish farms and count the feeders? Nobody did. That is how a balloon gets this big. Real founders, real ambition, a genuinely enormous market: all of that was true. But wrapped around it was a thick layer of paper valuation that everyone had a reason to believe and nobody had a reason to test. Then the cheap money went away. Global rates went up, the free-flowing capital dried up, and the next round at a higher price simply stopped coming. The moment the markup stopped going up, the whole thing had to be repriced down to whatever was actually there. Sometimes that is a smaller, real business. Sometimes it turns out there was nothing there at all. As Buffett put it, when the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked. In Indonesia, when the tide went out, the state did not shrug. It reached for a hammer. Two. The hammer lands on the frauds, and it should Start with the clearest case. eFishery, the internet-connected fish feeder company that sold itself as the future of aquaculture, turned out to be one of the largest frauds this region has ever produced. Two sets of books. The company claimed roughly $752 million in revenue when the real number was nowhere close, and claimed a profit while it was losing tens of millions. The founder was sentenced to nine years, reduced to six on appeal. Two of his executives are going to prison alongside him. The investors who got fooled were not amateurs. Then there is Investree, a fintech lender and at the time one of the respected pioneers, run by a genuine star of Indonesian finance. The regulator says Adrian Gunadi collected around Rp2.7 trillion, about $164 million, from the public without the licence to do it, and routed money through shell companies. When the investigation closed in, he left for Qatar. Interpol red notice, extradition, and he landed back at Soekarno-Hatta in handcuffs in September last year. He faces up to ten years. So far this is a clean story. Frauds exposed, frauds punished. Good. If that were the whole thing I would be telling you the cleanup is working. But the hammer did not stop at the frauds. Three. Four venture capitalists went to prison for a startup that failed There was a startup called TaniHub, an agritech connecting farmers to buyers. It failed the way startups fail. Two investors had put about $25 million in between 2019 and 2023: MDI Ventures and BRI Ventures. Here is the detail that changes everything. MDI is owned by Telkom Indonesia. BRI Ventures is owned by Bank BRI. Both parents are state-owned. So in the eyes of the law, the money that went up in smoke was state money. And in Indonesia, a loss of state money can be prosecuted as corruption. The man who ran TaniHub, Ivan Arie Sustiawan, did divert funds for himself. That was a fraud. He got nine years, plus a fine and restitution, and according to the court record that is a thief getting what a thief gets. No argument from me. Then the court turned to the investors and convicted them too. Donald Wihardja, former chief executive of MDI Ventures: five years. Nicko Widjaja, former chief executive of BRI Ventures: three years. Two more investment executives, Aldi Adrian Hartanto and William Gozali: two years each. Four venture capitalists in prison for backing a startup that failed. I want to be precise here, because this is the part that made every investor I know, inside the region and outside it, sit up. The court record noted there was no personal gain. These men did not steal. What they were convicted of was approving an investment that lost money. Their own defence was the most basic rule in the whole business: a decision made in good faith that happens to lose money is not a crime, it is the risk you were hired to take. The court did not accept it. I told you the funds were not saints and I meant it. The markup game, the fee game, all of it. I have called parts of my own industry a grift and I stand by that. We earned plenty of the anger coming our way. But there is an enormous gap between you pumped your paper numbers to raise a bigger fund and you belong in a prison cell because a startup failed. The hammer stopped drawing that distinction. It came down on the thieves and on the losers with roughly the same force. Four. And it reached the very top Then there is Nadiem Makarim, co-founder of Gojek and former Minister of Education. At the time he built it, Gojek was the most successful startup this country had ever produced. I am going to be exact, because it matters. He was not convicted of enriching himself, and the court specifically found that he did not. The conviction, on 30 June, was for abuse of authority in how his ministry procured school laptops, and for favouring Google, which had been an early Gojek investor. The court put state losses at Rp1.57 trillion, roughly $88 million, on the basis that the Chromebooks could not be used in regions without internet access. He got ten years, a fine, and an order to pay restitution. He says the deal saved money. He is appealing. I am not going to opine on guilt. That is what the appeal is for, and I have no interest in convicting anyone from behind a microphone. The only thing I can talk about is the picture this makes from the outside. The founder who built the country’s proudest tech company is in a cell. Two founders who faked the numbers and one who fled the country are in cells. And four investors who simply lost money are in cells too. Whatever you think of any single case, the message that lands on every founder and every fund in the country is identical. When the boom turns to a bust here, the bust does not end in a spreadsheet and some red ink. It can end in a courtroom. Every founder and every fund manager in Jakarta is now doing that mental maths. Five. Then the regulator arrived, as it always does Once the courtroom is in play, the regulator is never far behind, because the other thing a burst bubble always triggers, everywhere, is new rules. The people who missed the fraud on the way up tend to be the most desperate to look tough on the way down. The financial regulator, OJK, brought in a new regime for venture firms. You now need Rp50 billion, about $3 million, in paid-up capital just to operate a fund. Use your licence within six months or lose it. Full disclosure of who really owns and controls you. Some of that is a reasonable reaction. After Investree ran money through shell companies, wanting to know who actually controls a fund is fair enough, and I understand the intent. But be honest about the $3 million floor. It does not stop the next fraud. Fraud does not care what your paid-up capital is. What it does do is price out emerging fund managers, the exact people a recovering market needs most, the ones willing to back a founder before anyone else will. You do not catch the crook. You just clear the room of the honest small players. And it is not only the private market. Up at the level of the public exchange, MSCI, the firm whose indices steer trillions of dollars of passive money around the world, has put Indonesia under review. It flagged the market for opacity, for murky shareholding structures, for suspected coordinated

    When the bust ends in a courtroom
  6. 22 Jul

    Just passing through: how Malaysia keeps funding the people who leave

    Over the past few weeks, three Malaysia stories hit the news that, on the surface, have nothing to do with each other. A government pension fund answered in Parliament for nearly RM200 million lost in a fish farming startup that turned out to be a fraud. A celebrity founder and her husband sat in a courtroom over money that came from two of the biggest state funds. And a quasi-crypto commune in Forest City had its license pulled by the local council and announced it was leaving. A fraud, a trial, and a controversy. Three different casts, three different genres. And underneath all three sits one uncomfortable pattern about how Malaysia spends its public money and who actually ends up on the receiving end of it. Here it is in one line, and the rest of this post is me proving it: when the Malaysian state goes looking for the future, it keeps handing its money and its land to people who are just passing through. And the ones who stayed, who put down roots and built something here, are the ones it keeps overlooking. One. Four audit firms, and nobody counted the feeders Start with the pension fund, because this is the one that should make you angriest, and not for the reason you think. The fund is KWAP. It manages the retirement savings of Malaysian civil servants: teachers, nurses, clerks, the people who keep the country running. About RM195 billion under management, more than RM8 billion in investment income last year. A serious, professional institution. In July 2023, KWAP put nearly RM200 million, call it US$47 million, into eFishery, the Indonesian startup that made internet-connected fish feeders and sold itself as the future of aquaculture in Southeast Asia. You already know how this ends. eFishery was one of the biggest startup frauds this region has ever produced. The company kept two sets of books. It claimed roughly 400,000 smart feeders deployed in the field. The real number was about 24,000. The fleet was inflated more than fifteen times over, and revenue was inflated to match. The founder was sentenced to nine years in an Indonesian prison, since trimmed to six on appeal. The story is back in the news because the Prime Minister stood in the Dewan Negara this week to answer for it, and the anti-corruption commission has opened a probe. The easy story, the one a lot of people wanted, is that somebody was lazy or asleep at the wheel. I do not think that is what happened, and the truth is far more useful. KWAP did not skip the diligence. It was part of a consortium that included SoftBank and Temasek, serious money with serious teams. Between them, the investors hired four separate audit and diligence firms: PwC, Grant Thornton, EY, and KPMG. They hired six more firms to survey the market and validate eFishery’s position in it. They hired Kroll, the corporate investigations outfit, to run background checks on the founders. That is millions of dollars of the most reputable professional diligence money can buy. Every single one of them missed it. Because all of that diligence was done on paper. Financial statements verified, documents cross-checked, management interviewed, the numbers in one data room matched against the numbers in another. As far as I can tell, nobody got in a car and drove out to the fish farms to count the feeders. If a single one of those firms had spent one week doing what any private equity analyst is taught on day one, go to the site, walk the floor, talk to the actual customers, they would have found 24,000 machines where the company promised 400,000. The fraud was not hiding in the accounts. It was sitting in plain sight in the fields, where nobody bothered to look. Every founder and fund manager reading this should burn that in: diligence on documents only tells you the documents are consistent. It does not tell you the documents are true. The cheapest, most boring check in the entire toolkit, physically going and looking at the thing, is the one nobody did. Two fairness notes. RM200 million against a RM195 billion fund is a rounding error, one tenth of one percent. Nobody’s pension is at risk, and when you hear the political noise, keep it in proportion. This is embarrassing, not an emergency. But it is exactly because the money was small that the failure matters. This was not a bet that went wrong. It was a bet that was never really examined, waved through on the strength of who else was in the round. SoftBank is in, Temasek is in, the auditors signed off, so we are in. That may pass in public markets. In private investing it is not investing, it is following. And when a Malaysian pension fund follows a crowd of foreign funds into a foreign fraud, you have to ask the question this whole post is about: what did any of it have to do with building Malaysia? Two. They bought the face, not the business I am going to be careful here, because this is a live trial. The founders have pleaded not guilty, and I am not here to convict anyone from a microphone. Everything about the alleged conduct is exactly that, alleged, and the courts will decide in due process. But the investment itself, the money going in and the money coming out, is a matter of public record, and that part is fair game. The company is FashionValet, the Malaysian fashion e-commerce startup founded by Vivy Yusof and her husband. Vivy was, and is, one of the most recognizable entrepreneurs in the country, a genuine influencer before that word got cheap, with a modest wear brand, dUCk, that people genuinely loved. She became the face of a certain kind of Malaysian success story. In 2018, two of the largest state funds invested: Khazanah put in RM27 million and PNB put in RM20 million. Call it RM47 million of public money into a homegrown fashion brand. Here is the number that should stop you. When the two funds eventually sold their stakes, they got back a combined RM3.1 million. A loss of roughly RM44 million, confirmed by the Ministry of Finance. Startups lose money, understood. But the losses were visible before anyone wrote a check. FashionValet lost money every single year it operated, and the losses grew from a few hundred thousand ringgit to more than RM10 million a year. Six straight years of red ink, and the funds looked at that and invested anyway. So the obvious question is why. I was not in the room, and I arrived in Malaysia around that time without the context to judge it then. But I do not think the honest answer has much to do with the business. I think the honest answer is worse, because it is a pattern rather than a one-off. They did not buy a business. They bought a face. A narrative, a following, the magazine covers, the idea that if you back the most famous young founder in the country, some of that shine rubs off, and the national funds get to say they are backing national icons. It feels modern. It ticks the marketing boxes. It photographs well. But an icon is not a business model, and a following is not a balance sheet. When the thing you actually bought is a personality, you bought a fragile asset, because the moment public sentiment turns, and in the influencer game it always eventually can, your investment turns with it. And here is the detail that tells you this is a real lesson and not just hindsight dressed up as insight: Khazanah itself, after the whole thing blew up, publicly warned about the risk of what it called icon-driven businesses. The fund said the quiet part out loud. Betting on personality is a structural mistake. Now put the two stories side by side, because they rhyme. In eFishery, the funds bought a foreign founder’s story and never checked the fields. In FashionValet, they bought a local founder’s story and never respected the profit and loss statement. One was a fraud, one was just a bad business, and those are very different things. But the investor mistake underneath both is the same: fund the narrative, skip the boring verification that would have told you the narrative was hollow. In both cases, public money went in on the strength of a name, not a capability. Three. Three names, one machine Two bad deals is just two bad deals. The reason this is a post and not a shrug is that these are not isolated checks. This is the machine working the way it has always worked. For more than twenty years, the government has tried to build a venture capital scene by pouring public money into funds and programs. Walk the track record. MAVCAP, the state venture arm going back to the early 2000s: over half a billion ringgit committed over the years, and by last reporting somewhere around RM200 million and change had come back. Roughly 38 sen home for every ringgit out. Allow for liquidity and unrealized positions, it is still a very slow, very official way of setting money on fire, and the local venture scene did not become self-sustaining on the back of it. Then came 2020 and Penjana Kapital, a fund of funds worth hundreds of millions, launched to kickstart the sector after the pandemic. Big launch, big numbers. Years later, remarkably little of the money had actually been deployed. The government, the local investors, and the foreign partners all wanted different things, and the apparatus seized up. And after two stalls, it did not stop. It rebranded. The prior attempts were consolidated under the sovereign fund and relaunched in late 2024 under a new name, with a new commitment of capital, as part of an even bigger government mobilization effort. Fresh name, fresh logo, fresh press release, fresh faces. MAVCAP, then Penjana, then the new entity. Three names, one machine, more than two decades. Fairness again, because it matters: real managers got their first checks from these vehicles, some very good local companies were backed, and many of the people involved are smart and sincere. The new iteration is too early to judge, and I genuinely hope it does better. But the machine, as a machine, has not built the thing it was built to build. There is still no self-sustaining venture

    Just passing through: how Malaysia keeps funding the people who leave
  7. 15 Jul

    The $7.4 Billion Lie

    You have seen the number this week, probably five or six times, from five or six people who all copied it from the same report. Southeast Asian tech funding hit 7.4 billion dollars in the first half of 2026. More than double last year. Recovery is here, the drought is over, break out the good coffee. It is true. It is also one of the most misleading true things I have read all year. Because 4.5 billion of that 7.4 billion went to a single company. One. A data-centre operator. Take that one company out, and on the exact same set of numbers, the region did not double. It went sideways, and depending on how you count, slightly down. And while we are here: when did we start counting data centres as startup funding at all? That is a genuine question, and it is going to matter more than it sounds. One landlord, not a region Here is the full picture, because the detail is where the headline falls apart. First half of 2026, 7.4 billion raised across Southeast Asia, against 3.2 billion in the same six months last year on the same source. On paper, up 130 percent. Now pull the thread. Of that 7.4 billion, 4.5 went to DayOne, a Singapore-registered data-centre operator, across two Series C rounds to fund a build-out. That is more than 60 percent of everything that flowed into the entire region, in one company, for concrete and cooling and racks. This is not a knock on DayOne. They did nothing wrong. Raising four and a half billion dollars is not a crime, it is a very good year. The problem is not the company. The problem is that we take their balance sheet and hand it to founders across five countries as if it were their momentum. Strip DayOne out and the region raised roughly 2.9 billion in six months, which is less than the 3.2 billion it raised the year before. The honest headline is not “funding doubled.” It is “one landlord had a great six months, and everything else went slightly backwards.” It gets worse when you look at where the money sat. Singapore captured 6.9 of the 7.4, over 90 percent, and still climbing. So this is not a Southeast Asian story. It is a Singapore data-centre story. And even that is a little bit of a fiction, because much of the physical build is not in Singapore at all. It is in Johor, across the causeway in Malaysia. The concrete goes up in Johor, the capital gets booked in Singapore, and the statistics tell you Singapore is booming. The map and the money have stopped agreeing with each other. One caveat to hold onto, because it trips people up. Around the same time, KKR and Singtel bought ST Telemedia’s data-centre business for about 5.2 billion. Huge, and real, but that is mergers and acquisitions. One company buying another. It is not venture funding and it is not in the 7.4 billion. If someone stacks the two and tells you data centres pulled in ten billion, they are double-counting. The money went into concrete. Whether a founder in KL, Jakarta or Ho Chi Minh City ever sees a cent of it is a separate question, and so far the answer is no. And here is the part that should sting. Fintech. Payments. The thing this region was supposed to be about, the super-apps and the wallets and the great Southeast Asian consumer story we told for a decade. Fintech raised 685 million dollars in the first half. Not a slow year. A sector that is basically over as the headline act, and nobody held the funeral. So the founders leave, into a narrower door Now widen the lens, because the timing matters. The same six months that Southeast Asia congratulated itself on 7.4 billion, global venture funding hit a record 510 billion, a record half driven almost entirely by the AI hype. Of that 510 billion, two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, raised 217 billion between them. Two American AI labs pulled in 43 percent of all the startup funding on Earth in six months. Put the numbers side by side. All of Southeast Asia raised 7.4 billion, and ex-landlord, call it 2.9. Two AI labs in San Francisco out-raised our entire region by something like 75 to one. We are a young market, I get that. But 75 to one, two companies against a region, is not a gap you shrug off. So what does a smart, ambitious founder do with that information? Some of them are already answering it. They are leaving. Founders who launched in Singapore in 2025 packed up in April and May and moved to the Bay Area. This has always happened, but it is becoming a steady trickle, which is worse, because a trickle does not make the news. It just quietly drains the pool. Here is where I want to be careful, because there is a lazy version of this story. The lazy version is: the money is in San Francisco, so move there and get funded. That is not true anymore. The money in the US has concentrated too, and not just by geography. It has concentrated by story. Look inside that record US number and 86 percent of it went to AI. The same brutal filter is running there, just on a different axis. In Southeast Asia the filter is one landlord. In the US it is one narrative, and if you are not telling it, the cheque book stays shut. Think about what that does to the bar. There used to be a respectable way to raise. You grew triple, triple, double, double, double. You built a business that compounded, showed durable revenue, and that was a clean Series A. That founder today walks into a room in San Francisco and gets a polite no, because the person across the table is not looking for durable. They want a thousand-x. They want the AI story that eats a category in eighteen months, and a healthy business that doubles every year sounds boring next to it. You did not escape the filter. You swapped a filter you understood for one that is even harder to clear. And I want to be fair, because it would be easy to turn this into a loyalty test, and that is not honest. The founders who leave are not traitors. They are moving toward the center of gravity, and San Francisco genuinely is the center of gravity for building right now, especially in AI. But nobody should sell you the fairy tale that the flight to SFO ends with a term sheet. The center of gravity is also the most crowded, most selective room on the planet, and this year it is writing cheques for exactly one kind of story. Whether the founder stays or goes, the answer is the same shape. Here, the money went to a building, not a founder. There, the money goes to one narrative, not a founder. Either way, the ordinary, good, growing company, the backbone of any real startup scene, is the thing nobody is funding. We built a region that funds the warehouse and exports the talent, and the place we export it to only wants that talent if it can promise a miracle. Fewer deals, but not better ones There is a comeback I always get here, and it is a fair one. Deal count is down, sure, but that is discipline. The market matured. Fewer, bigger, better deals. Quality over quantity. This is healthy. I would love to believe that. In the first half of 2026 there were 127 funding rounds across the region, down from 153 a year earlier. Fewer deals, yes. But look at where the money inside them went. Six billion of the 7.4 went into just twelve rounds of a hundred million dollars or more. Twelve rounds took six billion. The other 115 rounds, every seed cheque, every Series A, every founder not raising nine figures, split roughly 1.4 billion between them. That is not discipline. Discipline is looking at a hundred good companies and carefully backing the best thirty. This is a hundred companies looking up at twelve giants eating almost everything, and scrapping over the crumbs. When the top twelve deals take 80 percent of the capital, that is not a mature market. It is a bare cupboard with one very full shelf. And before anyone tells me last year was some golden baseline we have fallen from, no. Last year was the same shape. In the first half of 2025, fintech was carried by three deals that made up more than half of all fintech funding, and Singapore took over 90 percent of the pie even then. The concentration is not new. It is not a one-off. It is the structure. Southeast Asian venture has run on “one or two deals carry the whole region” for at least two years straight. The only thing that changed in 2026 is that the one deal got bigger, so the number got louder, and the lie got easier to tell. Read the middle of the list Let me be clear about what this is and is not. This is not doom. I am not telling you the region is dead, or that nobody should build here, or that we should all give up and move to California. Plenty of good companies are being built here right now, quietly, with real revenue, and they deserve better than to be background noise behind a data-centre headline. Which, again, I still do not understand why we file under startup funding at all. What I am asking for is honesty about the number. Stop reading 7.4 billion as a sign of health. It is not. It is the balance sheet of one landlord plus a rounding error for everyone else. If you want to know how Southeast Asia is actually doing, do not look at the top deal. Look at deal number three, and deal number fifty, and deal number 127. Look at whether a seed-stage founder in Kuala Lumpur can raise a real round without moving to Singapore first. Look at whether the best people are staying or leaving. Right now, on the honest read, the top of the market is a landlord, the middle is thin, and the sharpest founders are heading to the airport. Until the number without the landlord starts going up, we are not narrating a recovery. We are narrating a story we would like to be true. Real. Raw. Relatable. If this one annoyed you, good. That means you were paying attention. Tell me where I am wrong. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit seaofstartups.substack.com

    The $7.4 Billion Lie
  8. 8 Jul

    Who Owns the Scarce Thing?

    This week the two biggest stories in Southeast Asian tech were not a funding round or somebody’s ninth super app pivot. They were a government chip program in Penang and 3,600 kilometres of fibre being dropped on the seabed between India and Singapore. Two boring stories. Laid side by side, they are the most honest picture of this region you will get right now. Both are asking the same question, the one I ask in every partner meeting at Indelible, the one that decides who gets rich over the next ten years and who just gets used: Who owns the thing that is actually scarce? Malaysia tries to climb a rung On 1 July, MTDC, the Malaysian Technology Development Corporation, launched the first cohort of Semicon Start Malaysia. Ten companies picked from 39 applicants. A pot of RM10 million for the first phase, up to RM1 million per company, call it US$250k apiece, with Khazanah money in the mix. If you have been in this region as long as I have, your first reaction to “government launches program to build high-tech industry” is a small, tired sigh. We have seen this film. Malaysia has a graveyard of these: grand corridors, MOU signings, innovation valleys, state venture funds that wrote checks into slide decks and got slide decks back. Big announcement, ribbon, photo, handshake. Two years later you go looking for the companies and nobody is home. I had that sigh ready. Then I stopped, because this one has the potential to be different, and the reason why is the whole point of this piece. This time there is a real industry underneath the program. Penang is not a hopeful press release. Penang has been doing semiconductor assembly and testing for decades. A serious slice of the world’s chips passes through Malaysian hands on the way to being packaged and tested. That is not a pitch. That is payroll. Factories that have run for thirty years, and a workforce that already knows the difference between a good die and a bad one. So the bet is not “let’s conjure a chip industry out of nothing.” The bet is much narrower, and potentially much smarter: we already own one rung of this ladder. Can we climb one step up into design, where the money actually sits? The climb has already started without the program. SkyeChip, a homegrown Penang design house doing genuinely hard work (high bandwidth memory, chiplets), listed on Bursa’s Main Market. Before recording this week’s episode I saw a report suggesting Cerebras, the US chip company that also just went public, may be tapping SkyeChip for design work. I have not verified that, so hold it loosely. But the proof point stands either way: a local company has already climbed the exact rung the government now wants ten more companies to climb. Add the National Semiconductor Strategy from a couple of years back, Penang’s own chip design academy, and Selangor standing up a state fund, and you have something rarer than a press release. You have momentum with an industry underneath it. The timing is as good as it has ever been, too. The world wants to diversify where its chips come from. Nobody wants every advanced part made in one strait that could close on a bad Tuesday. Malaysia is neutral, capable, and already in the supply chain. If there was ever a decade to attempt this climb, it is this one. Now the hard part, out loud, because that is what this show is for. Money was never the thing missing here. What has been missing, every single time, is patience and expertise arriving in the same envelope as the cash. A million ringgit and a short program do not build a chip design house. Chip design is a long-term sport played by people who have failed at it a few times first. If Semicon Start is a check and a demo day, it joins the graveyard. If it comes with real design mentors, real customer introductions, and follow-on money that does not vanish when the photo op ends, it has a shot. So the thing to watch is not the RM10 million. It is whether anyone attached to the program has real operating expertise. Money is easy. Knowing what to do with it is the scarce part. Hold that thought. The cable, and what it actually is Now to the seabed. This week it was reported that Microsoft, together with Singapore’s Lightstorm, is leading a consortium building a new subsea cable called I2C: roughly 3,600 kilometres of fibre linking India to Malaysia to Singapore, targeted to go live around 2029, built for AI and data centre demand. Standard disclaimer, because I read these announcements the way I read a pitch deck: this is a 2029 project, consortium details on these things move around, and I have not seen final paperwork, just a news story. Treat the specifics as direction, not gospel. But the direction is what matters. Every few weeks now there is a story like this. A new cable, a new hyperscaler campus, somewhere with cheap power and a friendly minister. And every one of them gets written up as billions pouring into Southeast Asian digital investment. Celebrations all round. Here is what I actually see, and maybe I am a bit cynical: the region being wired up as a very good place to host other people’s compute. The fibre lands here. The data centres sit here. They use our power and our seabed. That is real economic activity and I am not pretending it is nothing. But ask the only question that matters. Who owns the compute? Who owns the demand sitting on top of that cable? Generally, not us. The demand is offshore, the models are somebody else’s, and the margin, the part where value actually compounds, is in Seattle and San Francisco, not Johor. We are the landlord renting out the ground floor, being told to feel grateful for the rent. I am a capitalist. Rent is not a dirty word. It is a perfectly good business, and Singapore has run that playbook for fifty years. But do not confuse being the landlord with owning the building. A region cannot tell itself it is climbing the value chain when what it is actually doing is leasing the basement to the people who own the value chain. This is where the cable and the chips rhyme. Same story, pointed in opposite directions. Malaysia’s chip program is a country trying to own more of the building. The cable is the region agreeing to stay one rung down. One is a strategy. The other is a lease dressed up as a strategy. What is actually scarce Value flows to whoever controls the scarce thing. It always has, AI or no AI. Find what is scarce, own it, and the money flows to you. Own something abundant and you compete it down to nothing. So: in Southeast Asia right now, what is actually scarce? I will tell you what is not. The technology is not scarce. The model is not scarce. Models are commoditizing in front of us, between the big labs’ price war and open source, and they will get cheaper and better every quarter whether you do anything or not. Building your moat on the model is building your house on the tide. Here is what is scarce. The customer who already trusts you. The physical network that took years and real pain to build. The license from a regulator who does not hand them out twice. Distribution into the towns and small shops that no hyperscaler in the world will ever bother to map. The workflow nuance that took ten years of unglamorous work and cannot be copied in a weekend of clever prompting. That is the scarce layer. That is the thing worth owning. Where the winners come from Look back at the two stories through that lens and they light up. Malaysia is trying to move from an abundant thing (cheap, capable labour, which everyone has) to a scarce thing (design capability, which very few have). Right instinct. Own the scarce rung. The founder version of the same move: the winner is not the one who owns the AI and goes hunting for a customer. The winner is the one who already owns the customer and quietly adds AI on top. The lending business that already has the borrowers and now underwrites them better. The logistics operator that already owns the trucks and the routes and now runs them tighter. The distributor who already reaches 10,000 shops and now forecasts demand for them. Those companies will never put AI in the headline. They do not need to. They already own the scarce thing. The AI is just a sharper tool in a hand that already knows the work. I know that is not a fashionable thing to say in 2026. Every second founder I meet opens with the model they are building on, the AI-native this, the agentic that. The funding tallies love it: somebody counts up the AI startups that raised this quarter, puts out a chart, and everyone nods. But that chart measures ambition, not durable revenue. Those are very different things, and the gap between them is where founders and their investors go to die. And here is the uncomfortable part I want founders to sit with. Every wave of cheap capital, every shiny new tool, every drop in the price of intelligence does not close the gap between those two kinds of companies. It widens it. When the tool gets cheap and everyone has it, the tool stops being the difference. The only difference left is the position underneath: the distribution, the trust, the scarce layer. Cheap AI makes owning real distribution worth more, not less. Be honest about what you own This is where Indelible puts its money, and I will say it plainly so you can hold me to it. We back people who own the scarce layer, or are credibly climbing one rung towards owning it. Not people standing on top of somebody else’s scarce layer with a nicer logo. (None of this is investment advice. It is simply where my money already is.) So the homework this week, if you are a founder: be honest about what you actually own. Not what is in your headline. What is in your foundations. If the answer is a really good wrapper around somebody else’s model, it is better to know that now. Using a commodity as an input is perfectly fine. Every company will. The question is what you own on top of it. A chip program in Penang. A cable on the seabed.

    Who Owns the Scarce Thing?

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Real, raw, relatable takes on Southeast Asian startups. One investor, the week's news, no script. seaofstartups.substack.com