Exponential Learning

The Team

Humans can absorb multiples more audio content than written. To that end, this podcast is for absorbing as much intelligence as possible as the catch-all for interesting articles, research reports, or podcast summaries. I hope you enjoy the knowledge as much as we do.

  1. 4 days ago

    HEDGEYE MACRO SHOW OCT 30 — Quad 4 Risk Builds for 2027: Yields Break Down, Asia Cracks, Defensives Take the Lead

    Alex and Jordan distill the October 30, 2026 edition of Hedgeye Risk Management's The Macro Show. Hedgeye's GIP model map (updated Oct 22) keeps inflation sticky through year-end (CPI 3.86% in 4Q26) then collapses it to 1.94% YoY by 2Q27 — flipping the regime to Quad 4 on an inflation rate-of-change rollover, not a GDP recession (their real GDP YoY stays 2.26-2.41%). The evidence: the 30-year yield first to signal bearish TREND with the 10-year teetering (10Y 4.93%, -36bp MoM) while long oil (BNO) breaks to cycle highs; 37.8% of Mag 7 2Q26 net income was unrealized marks on private AI stakes; leveraged ETF market cap rolling over from above 200 billion dollars; low beta up 10% in a month while top-quartile growth factors stall; BBB spreads widening 14bp MoM to 1.10%. Positioning: long XLV, XLP, IAK, energy; out of XLK, short DRAM and XLI; TLT shorts covered; model portfolios hold 38-59% cash and only 22-34% U.S. equities. Asia: Shanghai -15.1% from its May peak and signaling crash risk, EWY short -37% and IDX short -45% from cycle peaks, Japan exited on a bearish TREND signal. Gold at 3,982 dollars is the non-confirmation to watch. Closing segment: our desks' Quad 3 house view vs Hedgeye's Quad 4 path, and the adjudicators — yield follow-through, defensive leadership persistence, Asia spillover into U.S. credit. Source: Hedgeye Risk Management, The Macro Show, October 30, 2026.

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Humans can absorb multiples more audio content than written. To that end, this podcast is for absorbing as much intelligence as possible as the catch-all for interesting articles, research reports, or podcast summaries. I hope you enjoy the knowledge as much as we do.

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