Argus Media

Argus Media

Argus Media podcast

  1. Weight of Freight: Guinea’s Grip on the Capesize Market

    5 HR AGO

    Weight of Freight: Guinea’s Grip on the Capesize Market

    Argus Dry Freight has launched its latest podcast with Richard Stephenson, a Portfolio Manager and Trader at Pendle Commodity Investment Management Limited, a London based hedge fund specializing in commodity derivatives, with a particular strength in freight derivatives. This episode of Argus Way to Freight explores why Capesize freight rates surged in early 2026 and how Guinea’s bauxite-driven supply dynamics continue to dominate the Atlantic market. Portfolio manager Richard Stephenson breaks down the impact of Guinea’s political volatility, bunker price spikes linked to the Middle East crisis, and the fragile economics of FOB bauxite supply. The discussion also examines the first cargoes from the Simandou project and what rising Atlantic iron ore flows mean for tonne‑miles and the forward freight curve. Main topics: Why Q1 2026 Capesize rates spiked:unexpected restart of SD Mining’s licence, large bauxite volumes from Guinea, and short-covering in a weak market. Netback pressure on Guinea’s exporters:bunker-driven freight inflation pushing delivered costs above $30/t and squeezing FOB margins to breakeven levels. Political and regulatory risks in Guinea:licence revocations, potential supply caps, and how markets misprice the probability of disruptions across the freight curve. Simandou’s early shipments:slow initial loadings, expected ramp-up, limited near-term freight impact due to internalised logistics, but rising long-haul iron ore flows supporting tonne‑miles. Market outlook for 2026:near-term downside risks from Guinea disruptions and elevated bunkers, with possible Q3-Q4 support from Vale volumes and probable normalisation in the Middle East.

    21 min
  2. Fertilizer Matters EP44: Sustainable & Specialty Fertilizers Market

    16 MAR

    Fertilizer Matters EP44: Sustainable & Specialty Fertilizers Market

    Hear Argus’ essential analysis of the sustainable and specialty fertilizers sector, covering why this product group is growing in importance for producers, the impact on pricing of volatile trade flows, growing liquidity and CBAM, analysis of Chinese tMAP, NOP, water-soluble NOP, inhibited urea and key factors impacting prices to watch for in 2026. We also introduce a new suite of price assessments from Argus covering NOP, tMAP, MKP, CN, Water-soluble SOP, NPKs and inhibited urea. Join Mike Nash, Senior Editor – Fertilizers and Upasruti Biswas, Senior Reporter – Fertilizers as they discuss these topics in the latest episode of Argus' Fertilizer Matters podcast series.   Key questions answered in this podcast:   Why are sustainable and specialty fertilizers growing in importance for producers and how are these products categorized? How have volatile trade flows, market uncertainty and regulations like CBAM affected prices? How has the growth of this market segment and rising liquidity increased the need for price transparency? What can be learnt from the case of Chinese tMAP, through its growing importance for industrial applications such as the EV battery market? How is CBAM impacting prices, for example NOP – and is it driving buyers substituting to European water-soluble SOP? What are the complexities involved in pricing inhibited urea? What factors could drive price volatility in sustainable and specialty fertilizers in 2026? How do Argus’ new price assessments covering NOP, tMAP, MKP, CN, Water-soluble SOP, NPKs and inhibited urea improve price transparency?

    18 min

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