PROF. Mohammad Marandi joins Kyle live from Moscow. His Internet connection is a little sketchy but the audio is fine. Be sure to comment to help us with the YT algorithm. What if the real battlefield isn’t a border but a bottleneck? We sit down with Professor Mohammad Marandi to examine how Iran calculates risk, leverage, and legitimacy across a map defined as much by energy corridors as by military bases. From the broken promises of the JCPOA to the aftershocks of a 12-day war, we trace why Tehran insists on a narrow negotiating lane—nuclear assurances only—while locking every other door. Marandi argues that missiles, drones, and regional alliances won’t be traded for sanctions relief, pointing to lessons from Syria and recent clashes that, in Iran’s view, validated conventional deterrence. He walks through why trust collapsed: inconsistent U.S. compliance, shifting goalposts, and the absence of automatic penalties when commitments are breached. The proposed fix is mechanical rather than symbolic—snap, balanced consequences for violations that make cheating too costly. Alongside this, we explore Iran’s stated religious and strategic opposition to nuclear weapons, paired with an explicit caveat about existential threats that functions as deterrence without overt weaponization. The most provocative claim centers on geography and economics. Iran’s core deterrent, he says, is aimed at the Persian Gulf, not Israel: dense, vulnerable infrastructure, U.S. bases within range, and shipping lanes that tie oil and gas to global stability. A major war would rupture supply chains, spike markets, and outpace neat military outcomes. That logic, combined with a domestic pivot toward BRICS and the SCO, sets the political price for any new deal. Expect discussions to focus on recognition of enrichment rights, rigorous but bounded inspections, and automatic reciprocity for noncompliance—nothing more on missiles or allies. We close by testing media narratives of Iranian fragility against mass mobilizations at home and a wider global mood swing on Israel-Palestine. Agree or challenge these assessments, the takeaway is the same: any agreement that lasts must align with how power, risk, and credibility are actually distributed on the ground and at sea. If this conversation sharpened your view, follow the show, share it with a friend, and leave a review with the one clause you believe any durable deal must include. CHAPTERS: 0:00 Setting The Stakes And Guest Intro 2:27 Trust, Trump, And Broken Deals 5:16 Defense Red Lines And Syria Lessons 8:29 JCPOA Concessions And Needed Safeguards 12:18 Iranian Public Mood And Strategic Pivot 16:12 The 12‑Day War And Its Fallout 20:31 Nuclear Morality, Deterrence, And Neighbors 24:03 U.S. As Primary Deterrence Target 28:03 Israel’s Demands And Iran’s Refusal 31:30 Narrowing Talks To Nuclear Assurances Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/kyle-anzalone-show/donations Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy