390 episodios
Forward Guidance Blockworks
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- Economía y empresa
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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The Next Big Thing In Capital Markets | David Goone
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy!
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Follow tZERO on Twitter https://x.com/tZERO
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(08:20) The Shift From LIBOR To SOFR
(16:05) VanEck Ad
(16:45) Acquisition As A Growth Strategy
(22:16) The Growth Of Electronic Trading
(24:57) What Is tZERO?
(36:43) What Is A Security?
(38:47) Providing Liquidity For Venture Capital & Private Equity
(48:53) Aspen Hotel Resort Offering
(56:20) Building A Brand & Reputation As An Alternative Exchange
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Midas’ website: https://midas.app/
Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa
Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/
Fabrice Grinda on Twitter https://x.com/fabricegrinda
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro
(05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000
(07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021
(11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real)
(16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This?
(19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical
(21:19) VanEck Ad
(21:59) Palantir and Anduril
(26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S.
(30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022
(33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI)
(36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto
(39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain
(44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis
(47:50) Tether and Circle
(49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.)
(51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore
(53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare
(57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon?
(58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas
(59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc.
(01:04:27) FedNow
(01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem?
(01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk
(01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024
(01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech
(01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Citrini on 2024 Election Portfolio Construction And AI “Mania”
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7
Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/
Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary
Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now
(07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market?
(20:04) VanEck Ad
(20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations
(26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers
(28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks
(29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners
(33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump
(37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025)
(40:13) China
(46:32) Trump on Crypto
(48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why?
(54:12) Tarriff Basket
(56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs)
(58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company
(01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English
(01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed
(01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished
(01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks?
(01:19:03) China's AI Stocks
(01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now
(01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX
(01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Eric Pachman on Twitter https://x.com/EricPachman
Follow Bancreek on Twitter https://x.com/bancreek
Bancreek’s CPI tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/checking-the-tape-may-2024-cpiu
Bancreek’s PCE tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/april-2024-pce-update
Bancreek’s labor market tree map: https://www.bancreek.com/p/us-employment-data-treemap
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:57) The U.S. Labor Market
(03:57) Tree Map Of Where New U.S. Jobs Are Being Created (It's A LOT In Healthcare and Government Sector)
(19:50) VanEck Ad
(23:17) The Growth In U.S. Government Jobs
(28:39) U.S. Healthcare Industry Is Incentivized For High Prices And High Job Growth Is A Consequence
(45:00) Homebuilding, Oil & Gas, and Retail
(52:11) Inflation Masterclass: Differences Between CPI & PCE
(01:11:35) Healthcare in PCE & CPI
(01:28:46) With Housing Inflation Where It Is, It Is Nearly Statistically Impossible For Inflation To Be At Or Below The Fed's Target of 2%
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Growth Scare Hits U.S. Economy | Barry Knapp on Fed’s “Quadrilemma,” Lehman Brothers, and Job Market
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Barry Knapp on Twitter https://x.com/barryknapp?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma
(09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve
(34:06) VanEck Ad
(34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market)
(38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy
(43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective
(48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products
(50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008
(01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
“Get Used to 3-4% Inflation and 4-5% Interest Rates” | Jim Bianco on Fed’s June Meeting and Resilient U.S. Economy
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter @biancoresearch
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
17:39 VanEck Ad
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.