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23 UUR GELEDEN

A bad vintage – what is happening with the 2020/2021 PE-backed buyout class in Europe?

As 2026 kicks off, many GPs are beginning to assess exits for assets they purchased at peak valuation and with cheap debt in the 2020/2021 period. Sponsor entrances for that period were just shy of EUR 300bn, representing the busiest year ever for M&A. Rachel Lewis, Mergermarket’s co-head of news in Europe, has compiled a data report looking at the situation with this vintage class now that typical hold periods are coming to an end. Lewis joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss how sponsors are attempting to realize liquidity, with around two-thirds of assets from that time still unrealized. This episode explores why conditions were so good in 2020/2021 and why the market hasn’t recovered from a subsequent dip in 2022. It looks into which sectors are doing well, like industrials and chemicals, and why investors are more “risk off” when it comes to software assets. They also discuss how successful exits have taken shape and the methods investors are using, including specialty deal terms, to bridge the valuation gap. This Dealcast answers questions such as: Why aren’t dual track processes as popular as they were expected to be at the start of year? Which particular deals stand out? How are geopolitics are impacting market conditions? And can LPs forgive a bad vintage?

23 uur geleden

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25 min
18 FEB

Why ESG still drives returns in a ‘peak anti‑ESG’ era – Bayes Business School’s Prof. Michel Driessen, with Lucinda Guthrie

After the Trump administration revoked the 2009 Endangerment Finding that underpinned federal actions curbing greenhouse gases in February 2026, there is a sense that we are reaching a peak of anti-ESG sentiment. However, Professor Michel Driessen, director of Bayes Business School’s M&A Research Centre and chair of Queen’s Tower Advisory, argues environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues should be treated as a substantial business risk – and ignored at business owners’ peril. ESG policies are more than just the “E”, though the term has become highly politicized, with a heavy focus on the environmental aspects. Companies have gone from greenwashing a few years ago to “green hiding” today, making it difficult for investors to assess the financial value of ESG measures that are going underreported. At a time when anti-ESG sentiment feels rampant, Driessen, co-author of Green Gold: How Sustainability Creates Deal Value, joins Mergermarket’s global executive editor Lucinda Guthrie to discuss the importance of these measures in M&A. In this episode of Dealcast, the guests explore questions including: When will anti-ESG sentiment start to cool? How can AI support ESG reporting? And why are the palm oil industry and Boohoo such a good case studies for the complexities of ESG beyond just environmental standards? Green Gold: How Sustainability Creates Deal Value will be available from 26 February.

18 feb

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32 min
6 MRT

CVC’s head of credit sees dislocation, and private credit ready to deploy

“Private markets and private credit can be very, very helpful,” says Andrew Davies, in reference to the emerging dislocations he sees in financial markets, on the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. Davies is the head of credit at CVC Capital Partners, a global private markets manager with more than EUR 200bn in AUM. That help could be in the form of helping banks that are struggling to offload underwritten debt, scooping up publicly trading debt that’s priced too low, or providing to financial sponsors who find banks pared back, Davies says. “We’ve seen it every time there’s a period of volatility,” he adds. CVC and private credit is still deploying, despite increasing geopolitical risks, fears of AI disruption, and negative headlines around the industry, particularly in the US. European private credit is different, Davies contends, with more stability in capital flows that are more reliant on institutional investors rather than affluent individuals. The opportunity in Europe is to access a fragmented market that is less mature and has less competitive tension. “It’s been somewhat immune from that over the last year or so, in terms of what you’re sensing coming out of the news flow in the US,” Davies says. His biggest worry is around a heightened risk environment in the geopolitical landscape. There has already been short-term price action in energy markets, which Europe is very exposed to. “Does that flow into inflation? Does that flow into rates? Does that flow into a number of things?” he asks.

6 mrt

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24 min
2 MRT

Arcmont's Mattis Poetter on the 2026 outlook for Europe private credit

In this episode, Debtwire Europe's Francesca Ricciardi sits down with Arcmont Asset Management's Mattis Poetter to discuss what 2026 has in store for the European private credit market. From expected pricing dynamics and deployment trends to emerging private-credit segments and competition.

2 mrt

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17 min
20 FEB

KKR’s co-head of credit says “it’s adult swim only” in markets

The investing environment has gotten hard, says Christopher Sheldon, co-head of credit and capital markets at KKR, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “It’s adult swim only.” There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market, and much of the investor community is trying to figure out what playing field they’re on, explains Sheldon. He discusses KKR’s latest investor letter, titled CTRL + ALT + CREDIT, intended to reboot how investors are approaching credit. Sheldon contends that you have to be well-versed, have scale, and create your own origination, because elevated defaults and downgrades along with spreads tightening results in a “tough recipe”. “The more flexibility you have, the more ways to win. The more scale and breadth and origination you have, the more ways to win,” he says. Sheldon worries about lack of new supply in debt markets, that may cause spread tightening. He also notes the growing concern around outflows from certain markets. Right now, the private credit market is starting to see some flows come out on the wealth side, which is fine as redemptions are often capped. But if that is sustained for long periods of time, there may be a little bit more volatility in the market, he warns. On AI, the technology is moving so quickly that there is a need to be thoughtful, be able to pivot, and re-underwrite these businesses. In the liquid market, it’s important to have the flexibility to buy or sell, and to get out of situations where that thesis might have changed. In illiquid markets like private credit, he advises to focus more attention on structures that protect from assets being stripped out, from cash leaking out of the system. “Even if you do worry that maybe it’s a little less resilient, having that structure could be the key differentiator of having ball control,” he says. “Even if you do worry that maybe it’s a little less resilient, having that structure could be the key differentiator of having ball control,” he says. Sheldon also reiterates that the private credit market is not just the direct lending market any longer. The bigger part of the private credit market is asset-based finance, which is financing the real world economy, whether it be consumer loans to hard assets like aircraft or commercial lending, or music intellectual property. ABF is a huge growing market and is a great diversifier to portfolios today, he reckons. KKR credit investor letter: https://bit.ly/4aYV4pN

20 feb

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32 min
27 FEB

Ares’ co-head of alternative credit says AI will hit a bit of a wall due to “sheer capital” need

“You are going to hit a little bit of a wall because of power. You’re going to hit a little bit of a wall, because of the sheer capital that’s supposed to be there to finance that piece,” says Joel Holsinger, co-head of alternative credit at Ares Management, on the latest edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Holsinger expects to see a slowdown, because the current level is “probably unsustainable” for the sheer amount of capital that is required for all these projects, along with the amount of power generation that needs to be built. Already, banks are trying to reduce their exposure across some of their data centre names, Holsinger says – not due to risk or fear, but because they want to buy more. “They’re already at capacity issues, because the opportunity set is so big,” he says. Holsinger adds that there are emergent signs of concern for troubled credits. “Right now, we’re in the situation where the tide has not gone out. That’s very clear,” he surmises, referencing Warren Buffett’s famous line. “Underlying fundamentals are generally good. But you’re seeing some random nudity on the beach.” This said, Holsinger contends there are not yet huge cracks emerging in underlying credit markets, either on fundamentals or spreads. But he believes we are at the end of the cycle, and there is more news to come. Holsinger, who is co-head of the Ares Charitable Foundation, also discusses philanthropy and “Promote Giving”, an innovative method to commit at least 5% of fund performance fees to charity.

27 feb

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36 min
6 MRT

How to make a boatload of money for investors while changing the world – Morgan Stanley’s Seema Hingorani, with Lucinda Guthrie

Seema Hingorani, managing director and member of the Operating Committee at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) talks to Lucinda Guthrie, executive editor at Mergermarket in this episode of Dealcast marking International Women’s Day. Investing “where nobody’s looking” opens up the prospect of making a “boatload of money”, and when this means allocating to diverse teams allocators are changing the world as they do this, Hingorani argues. Hingorani reflects on her own storied journey as an asset allocator from hedge fund entrepreneurship, through to her tenure until 2014 as CIO of New York City Retirement Systems, which had assets of USD 160bn to her current role at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Struck by the lack of female talent within the industry, Hingorani noted the major opportunity cost not only for women who could build outstanding careers but also for investors lacking a range of perspectives for how to put their money to work. This observation led her to found Girls Who Invest in 2015, an institution that continues to build awareness of career pathways in the investment world and now counts 4,000 alumni across 200 universities. From talent development to retention and investor returns to public service, this episode is a fascinating insight into a major Wall Street player at the top of her game, who has created a movement that is attracting and training top female talent into the finance industry.

6 mrt

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32 min
07-01-2020

6: Craving carve-outs

With competition fierce for most high-quality vanilla assets, corporate carve-outs and spinoffs have enjoyed something of a resurgence as GPs seek to take the road less travelled when it comes to origination. To discuss the topic in further detail, editor Greg Gille hosts Francesca Veronesi, Julian Longhurst and Katharine Hidalgo, and special guest Tristan Nagler, managing director at Aurelius.0:00 – Intro0:48 – Prevalence of carve-outs7:13 – Interview with Tristan Nagler17:16 – UK opportunitiesTheme music: ©2012 Kick Up The Fire

07-01-2020

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21 min
20-12-2025

Unpacking First Brands, rise of coercive restructurings – Eagle Point founder Tom Majewski

While credit is “probably a four-letter word right now,” it is doing reasonably well, says Tom Majewski, founder and managing partner at Eagle Point Credit Management. “But headlines around the space will continue, and perhaps that unto itself creates some credit challenges,” he adds on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Majewski unpacks the First Brands collapse and fraud in general, noting there’s been a significant decline of occurrences of fraud in the US economy since the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. He also discusses liability management exercises (LMEs), or coercive restructurings, sharing Eagle Point’s upcoming research that shows there’s been over 100 LMEs in the last five years. “If there’s a little over 1,000 loans, that’s about a 2% LME rate per year, separate from defaults.”

20-12-2025

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32 min
23 JAN

We’re looking at a multi-year M&A uptick – Morgan Stanley head of private credit and equity David Miller

“It’s going to be a slow build, and we think a sustained multi-year increase in activity,” says David Miller, head of private credit and equity at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, speaking about M&A and LBOs. The geopolitical headlines haven’t yet changed the economic picture, says Miller. But over time, they may impact on confidence and fan uncertainty. “As uncertainty rises, risk premium will rise. So that can change the calculus - but we’re not seeing it in the markets yet,” he observes. Miller also discusses running both the private equity and private credit businesses at Morgan Stanley’s asset management arm, a team that numbers more than 150 strong, and what it’s like being part of a global bank.

23 jan

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36 min

This channel contains a series of podcasts produced by ION Analytics. Here you will find editors and journalists from Mergermarket, Debtwire, and Infralogic discussing the topics and trends shaping the capital markets.