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Join Crisis Group Interim President Richard Atwood and Board Member and Harvard Law School Professor Naz Modirzadeh as they dive deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end.
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Hold Your Fire‪!‬ International Crisis Group

    • Nieuws

Join Crisis Group Interim President Richard Atwood and Board Member and Harvard Law School Professor Naz Modirzadeh as they dive deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end.
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    S2 Episode 8: U.S.-China Tensions and Beijing’s Show of Strength in the Taiwan Strait

    S2 Episode 8: U.S.-China Tensions and Beijing’s Show of Strength in the Taiwan Strait

    In recent weeks, record numbers of Chinese fighter jets have entered Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone in what appears to be a deliberate show of strength by Beijing. This comes at a time when tensions between Beijing and the U.S. are particularly fraught. A core part of Washington’s China policy seeks to deter China’s assertiveness in its neighbourhood, as Beijing expands its military presence within the first island chain, which stretches from Japan past Taiwan to the Philippines and Borneo in the South China Sea. 
    In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Amanda Hsiao, Crisis Group’s Senior China Analyst. They talk about what Beijing hopes to achieve with the flights and how they’re perceived in Taiwan. They also discuss the military build-up in the region and how U.S. and Chinese militaries are more frequently coming into contact with one another. Amanda also talks through how Beijing views its relations with Washington and, with a virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping scheduled for some time this year, prospects for dialling back tensions.  
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our China page. Make sure to check out Amanda’s recent Q&A. 

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    • 35 min.
    S2 Episode 7: Cameroon's Forgotten Anglophone Conflict

    S2 Episode 7: Cameroon's Forgotten Anglophone Conflict

    For almost five years, Cameroon’s western provinces have been wracked by a deadly separatist insurgency. In 2016, Anglophone protesters took to the streets angry at the increasing use of French in courtrooms and schools. The government’s crackdown fuelled support for separatism and the emergence of several separatist militias calling for a new state: Ambazonia. Separatists attacked security forces and for years also enforced a school boycott, depriving hundreds of thousands of children of their education. For the most part, Paul Biya’s government has refused to talk directly to separatist leaders and has waged a brutal military campaign. Violence has killed thousands of people and displaced some 700,000 more. For now, no end is in sight. 
    In the latest episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk with Arrey Elvis Ntui, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Cameroon, about the war, its toll and prospects for a settlement. They discuss the origins of Anglophone grievances and the motives of separatists and Biya’s government in Yaoundé. They also talk about the role women play in both the insurgency and peacemaking efforts. They ask what a peaceful settlement would look like, and the role Cameroon’s foreign partners could play in getting the parties to the table.
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Cameroon page. Make sure to keep an eye out for our upcoming report. 

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    • 44 min.
    S2 Episode 6: Lebanon is Falling Apart

    S2 Episode 6: Lebanon is Falling Apart

    Lebanon is in the midst of what the World Bank describes as what could be one of the worst economic crises of the past 150 years. Over three-quarters of the population have been plunged into poverty, often struggling to obtain food, medicine and basic necessities amid rampant inflation, currency collapse and widespread shortages. State institutions, including the security forces and police, are increasingly strained. Unrest has mounted as political elites defer necessary reform. The newly appointed government has promised to break the deadlock but it is difficult to see the path out of the crisis, especially with elections only months away. 
    In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Naz and Richard are joined by Heiko Wimmen, director of Crisis Group’s Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Project to discuss the country’s plight. They discuss the origins of the crisis, its everyday consequences for Lebanese citizens, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the role played by competing political factions, including Hezbollah. Three decades after the end of the devastating civil war, they ask what Lebanon’s economic implosion means for relations among the country’s sects and assess risks of violence.
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Lebanon page. Make sure to look out for our upcoming report on the political and social ramifications of the crisis. 


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    • 41 min.
    S2 Episode 5: Could Talking to Mali's Jihadists Bring Peace?

    S2 Episode 5: Could Talking to Mali's Jihadists Bring Peace?

    The war in the Sahel appears to have reached a stalemate. In Mali, fighting pits the Malian security forces, backed by regional militaries and French special forces and airpower, against an al-Qaeda-linked jihadist coalition, JNIM (the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims). Since Mali’s crisis in 2012-2013, efforts to defeat jihadist militants have only seen their influence expand. Violence has spread across the Sahel at terrible human cost. Two successive coups in Bamako, Mali’s capital, have fuelled political instability. French officials appear exasperated by the lack of progress. Yet militants themselves are also under pressure, with several leaders killed over recent years. 
    In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, Crisis Group’s Sahel expert, to ask whether it is time for a new approach. They take stock of the insurgency’s current state, its aims and JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda. They discuss the future of the French presence and the consequences of the recent coups. They also speak at length about prospects for talks between the government and JNIM leaders, what such talks might entail and the challenges such a path would pose. 
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Sahel and Mali regional pages as well as our work on Jihad in Modern Conflict. Be sure to keep an eye out for Ibrahim’s upcoming report. 

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    • 51 min.
    S2 Episode 4: Avoiding Another Afghanistan: Could Al-Shabaab Seize Power in Somalia?

    S2 Episode 4: Avoiding Another Afghanistan: Could Al-Shabaab Seize Power in Somalia?

    Many people in the Somali capital Mogadishu watched with apprehension as the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan. Could Somalia, struggling against its own Islamist insurgency -- Al—Shabaab -- face a similar fate? In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia, to discuss the resurgence of Al—Shabaab as political instability wracks the country and the withdrawal of African Union troops potentially looms. They discuss the state of the insurgency, the capability of Somali defence forces, the troubled relationship between the central government and Somalia’s regions, and the role of East African and other foreign powers. They also talk about whether there is any hope of a political settlement with Al—Shabaab. 
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Somalia and Horn of Africa pages. 


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    • 43 min.
    S2 Episode 3: License to Kill: Lawyering in the War on Terror

    S2 Episode 3: License to Kill: Lawyering in the War on Terror

    Only days after the 9/11 attacks, Congress ushered in extraordinarily broad legislation that authorised President Bush to use military force in order to eliminate terrorist threats to the U.S. In this episode of Hold Your Fire! – the second in a podcast series looking at the legacy of the 9/11 attacks – Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Stephen Pomper, Crisis Group's Interim Chief of Policy, to discuss the lasting legacy of this Authorisation for the Use of Military Force (AUMF). They discuss the forthcoming Crisis Group report on the topic, “Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the War on Terror”, reflecting on how the AUMF became the legal basis for increasingly wide-ranging military actions embraced by successive administrations, from Bush to Biden, as the fighting against Islamist militants expanded in scope. They also discuss the role of law and lawyers in establishing the boundaries of presidential authority and the consequences of diminished congressional oversight.
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our United States page. This episode also features as part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the "War on Terror”.

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    • 1 u. 11 min.

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