Insight Myanmar Insight Myanmar

Episode #231: Guillaume de Langre, a former adviser to the Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy, addressing the military regime’s urgent need to exploit the country’s natural resources to keep afloat in the nation’s ruined economy.
He first notes that while valuable ores and minerals, like gold, silver, lithium, and jade, have been integral to the military economy since at least 1990, profits from these resources have not resulted diversified, equitable development or improved living standards for the local populations. Instead, they have been a curse, subjecting those communities to exploitation and environmental hazards without significant investment in their wellbeing.

But problems mushroomed following the 2021 military coup. Foreign investment and expertise evaporated amidst the ensuing instability, leaving the economy in a chokehold. With dwindling revenue, and much of the natural resource extraction having been halted, the result has been a massive loss of revenue for the military. Coupled with the their incompetent economic strategies over the years, it spells out a grim future as to how they keep the faucets on.

De Langre further speculates on the post-coup economic landscape, the challenges of energy infrastructure investment, and the potential for a new social contract that could address the wealth distribution between various ethnic and regional groups. He envisions a positive future where Myanmar ultimately emerge from this turmoil, attracting foreign investment with a commitment to transparency and sustainable development.

 “Myanmar is not doomed! There is a path, but it will be tricky. It'll be very imperfect, and probably unequal. But there is a path,” he says in closing. “This is a moment of flux. It's a moment to propose things, and if you have an expertise… I'm sure that there are hundreds of people out there who have very specific knowledge about things that are essential to understand about development in Myanmar, and how to get out of this situation… We don't have to wait to be given permission to imagine the future.”

Anthony Davis, a seasoned analyst deeply immersed in the nuances of insurgency and military affairs in the Asia-Pacific, including Myanmar, sits down with us today. He begins by articulating the palpable and sweeping resolve for change he sees across Burmese society— a collective epiphany that transcends ethnic lines and generations. And it isn't merely a repudiation of military despotism; it's a profound societal transformation, signaling a revolutionary tide reshaping every aspect of Burmese life.
International perceptions, however, seem misaligned with this reality. They mostly fail to grasp the magnitude of what Davis does not hesitate to call a “revolution.” This has led to tepid and conventional responses at odds with the seismic shifts occurring within Myanmar. Davis argues that true revolutions defy containment and negotiation— they demand acknowledgment and robust engagement, something the world has been reluctant to provide.
Complicating the picture, however, is the absence of a revolutionary nucleus in Myanmar. As a spontaneous uprising, it lacks centralized direction, leaving a disparate and autonomous array of ethnic armed organizations along with a national government-in-exile to wrestle with the challenge of unifying the fragmented resistance.
Despite the remarkable successes of the recent Operation 1027, which shattered the myth of the military's invincibility, Davis tempers any premature declarations of the regime's demise. He recognizes the strategic recalibrations of Myanmar's neighbors, who may intensify support for the military, perceiving its vulnerability as a call to bolster their support rather than abandon it.

“Everybody realizes that this revolution is about putting an end to a morally bankrupt regime! And this is a regime which needs to be shown the back door of history. I just hope and pray that the courage and resilience that population the vast majority of the population in Myanmar has displayed over the last three years can be sustained in the years to come.”

Episode #230: “Unfortunately, in 2020, after the NLD won a landslide election, there was a military coup. And [then] the PDF resistance started. I took part in the resistance as I had years before, but there is a difference this time, too,” explains Nway.
Inspired by his mother, an active participant in politics since Ne Win's 1962 coup, Nway's involvement in the resistance included clandestine communication with Aung San Suu Kyi during her detention and risky efforts to deliver messages to imprisoned allies, among many other important tasks.

Despite the supposed democratic transition post-2010, Nway criticizes this period as superficial, with the 2008 Constitution maintaining military dominance. He rebuked international pressure for elections as a facade of democracy, emphasizing the need for genuine systemic change. The most recent coup escalated his activism, compelling his support for armed resistance and relocation to Mae Sot for safety. Nway also highlights the intricate relationship between Buddhism and politics in Myanmar, acknowledging the tension between nationalistic and progressive monks within the context of the country's struggle for democracy and the military's manipulation of religion to maintain power.

“If we win the revolution, the international community will see a very civilized society in Burma, which will be very active in promoting peace for the whole world,” Nway says in closing. “But if the junta wins, you will have a society which believes in the stone age. So, I would like to request of you, please understand the feeling of people of Burma! We left our country, we want to be like you, we want our kids to be like your kids, to go to school and also we want to sleep with our family like you want to sleep with your family. That is why we are trying to get rid of the military in our political system. This is not only for a party sake, not only for an ethnicity sake, it is for all the people of Burma and also the people of the world.”

Episode #229: Leon Kennedy's life is a chronicle of personal struggle. Growing up in an era of historical significance, his parents were heavily involved in the Civil Rights Movement, with figures like Martin Luther King Jr. and Rosa Parks frequent visitors to his grandparent's home. But when his parents divorced, the pain and the absence of a male role model led him down a path of rebellion despite the noble influences that had surrounded him. His mom sent him to an all-white high school, which in the South was very hard for an African-American, and a sense of fight was fueled in him.
Leon's tumultuous youth saw him involved in a violent incident that nearly cost a man his life, resulting in Leon's incarceration. During his nine-year sentence, he embraced reading and music; upon his release, he sought normalcy through work and family life. However, the lure of his former life led to a bank robbery and another prison sentence. It was during his second incarceration that he discovered Vipassana meditation as taught by S.N. Goenka, which became a transformative force in his life.

Leon's commitment to Vipassana continued despite the challenges posed by the prison system's resistance. He became a model prisoner, engaging deeply in self-help and meditation, eventually featured in a documentary. The practice of Vipassana allowed him to view the sacrifices of the Civil Rights leaders with even greater reverence, even as he connects it to the ongoing crisis in the Golden Land today. He served out his sentence, and is now a committed and involved advocate.

He reflects on his spiritual connection to Myanmar in light of the country’s struggle. “How can [one] know what's going on [in Myanmar] and not reach back? That speaks to a different discounting level of your humanity. So whether it be Myanmar or any place in the world where there is oppression and suffering, this suffering and these injustices have been going on since the beginning of time. It is a blessing to be a part of that cloth or personhood where you can be a part of the solution, to be a light shining in a dark place, just a spark. So to my brothers and sisters in Myanmar and other places in the world, where they're being oppressed, slaughtered, genocide, starved, enslaved: Whether it be Vipassana, Christianity, Islam or whatever it is their special place where you find that strength and you can just hold out, and hope against hope.”

Episode #228: Jane Ferguson speaks about her recent book, Repossessing Shanland: Myanmar, Thailand, and a Nation-State Deferred. The book’s title refers to Shan attempts to reclaim their land and community after many years of conflict.
Ferguson explains that contemporary concepts of identity—like “ethnicity”—are often mistakenly used to interpret the past. Rather, her study reveals the lack of pan-Shan identity, and that even the way the Shan practiced Buddhism varied from east to west. The British, with hopes of a more efficient Empire, tried unsuccessfully to get the Shan to unite.

Many Shan migrants work in Thailand, where they eke out a living to send money back to their families and communities in Myanmar. Recent changes in Thai-Myanmar relations and plans to create economic zones, however, raise many questions about the future of this arrangement.

During the transition years, the Shan were skeptical that the NLD would be supportive of their political and economic interests. Whether it was the elected government under Aung San Suu Kyi or the military regime that was in power, they often felt they were caught between a rock and a hard place.

In closing, Ferguson says that there is this idea that, “Okay, now that the military is back in the saddle, everybody has a common enemy again, so they're more likely to unite… I've met some really creative people that have incredible ideas for building a better future. I can't begin to express the horrors and the biggest internal conflict that Myanmar is fighting since the time of World War Two, it's tremendous. But on the other hand, there are some pockets of real optimism.”

Episode #227: Nathan Ruser, a specialist at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), is an expert in geo-mapping. Building on his experience using satellite imagery to track human rights violations in areas like Syria and Shenzhen, Ruser has begun analyzing the unique nature of the conflict in Myanmar. Influenced by the country’s geographic and ethnic diversity, the clashes here defy conventional understanding, and Ruser has developed a numerical scale to map control levels, often having to assess the situation village-by-village. His methodology contrasts starkly with oversimplified media representations.
Ruser employs ground reports to complement satellite imagery in creating a richer picture of conflict. For example, he has identified helicopter pads at nearly all junta bases, which illustrates their growing reliance on air support for supply and reinforcements. This, in turn, shows how they are perceived as an occupying force by locals. With the junta's diminishing ground control, they are taking a more defensive posture overall, in particular strengthening their urban strongholds, reminiscent to Ruser of the tactics Assad used in Syria. And now, Operation 1027 has further altered the landscape. Resistance forces are taking key locations, which he suggests could indicate a potential overall collapse of the military.
Despite this, the junta’s air superiority and strategic defense of high terrain remain significant. Ruser’s analysis also underscores the West's missed opportunity to engage meaningfully with Myanmar's democratic revolution, hindered by a reluctance to intervene in civil conflicts post-Libya 2011, a stance that has rendered the Right to Protect (R2P) framework largely ineffective.

In closing, Ruser wants to stress that we are now witnessing a sea change in the crisis taking shape before our eyes. “Thousands of kilometers in the sky, on a satellite looking down, you can see the change in tone of this conflict,” he says. “The idea that you can turn a country that has historically been a violent dictatorship into… a flourishing, progressive, great democracy; I think that's an opportunity!” Yet he points out this won’t follow a conventional trajectory as it goes forward. “There's not going to be a movement where there's a slow democratization of the country, where the military enables the country to become more democratic… It's a matter of the military winning or the military losing. Not putting your foot on either side is definitely a hindrance rather than a help.”