ARC ENERGY IDEAS ARC ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

The threat of a wider Middle East war is increasing. Over the past weekend, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for Israel’s suspected strike on Iran's embassy in Syria. This week, our guest, Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights, explains why oil prices have increased over the past few months, including the impact of the growing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+, and US shale oil growth. 
Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarth’s paper influenced President Biden’s pause on LNG approvals.  
Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers' recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and if this trend could come to Canada. 
Content referenced in this podcast:  
How One Scientist Influenced Biden’s Pause on LNG Approvals (BNN Bloomberg, Feb 29, 2024) The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University (version is not final and it is currently in a peer review process; original version submitted October 2023, revised version submitted March 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  
 
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This week on the podcast, our guest is Rebecca Lindland, Senior Director of Industry Data and Insights at Cars Commerce. Cars Commerce has a platform to simplify the next generation of automotive retail, including Cars.com, AccuTrade, Dealer Inspire, and coming soon, Cars Commerce Media Network.

Rebecca is a highly respected expert in the automotive industry. She shares her views on the rise of plug-in hybrids, the recent headwinds for pure electric cars, and new auto technology.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rebecca: How is the auto industry doing now, and is it generally profitable?  Explain the difference between pure-electric, plug-in hybrid, and traditional hybrids. Why are sales of hybrid vehicles increasing in the US?  Do the new US EPA auto rules for increasing electric technology include hybrids? Is the higher price of plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles a barrier to sales? Why are Tesla’s sales slowing? Explain BYD's success in 2023 and if they could come to North America.  Do you think solid-state batteries, if they become available, will increase EV adoption rates? Are self-driving electric cars just delayed, or are they no longer likely?  
Other content referenced in this podcast: 
NYT article from January 2024: “Hybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance and All Electric Sales Slow.” Artist of Rebecca’s office car art: Lyn Hiner StudioPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 
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This week our podcast guest is Rachel Walsh, Environmental Commodities Strategist at BMO Capital Markets.  
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rachel: Is the hefty Canadian emitter carbon tax starting to impact competitiveness? Is the carbon levy causing industrial emitters to invest in reducing their emissions? Canada and Alberta have introduced incentives to reduce the capital cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Are these incentives enough to kick-start the industry? Are the contracts-for-difference that guarantee a carbon price for industrial emitters over a decade or more required for investment in large decarbonization projects? The Canada Growth Fund has set aside about $7 billion for contracts-for-difference; how much carbon do you think that will mitigate? The voluntary markets have struggled with credibility issues; do you expect this will improve and prices will increase? Could strong voluntary markets reduce the risk of investing in Canadian compliance markets since they offer an alternative way to monetize the carbon credits?
Content referenced on this podcast:
Clean Prosperity CanadaICE has introduced two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

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Recently, Alberta announced significant changes to its power market: short-term changes to stop economic withholding and a long-term redesign of Alberta’s deregulated electricity market into a restructured energy market (REM).  
This week, our guest, Blake Shaffer, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, helps us understand these changes.
Here are some questions Jackie and Peter asked Blake: Why does Alberta need a market redesign? Was the near-brownout during a frigid weekend in January a sign that the current system is not working? What is “economic withholding” and how does it contribute to higher prices? The REM is expected to have a “day-ahead market,” how does that work? The REM could also have a wide pricing range, from negative prices to ones that exceed the current maximum of $999/MWh. What is the benefit of a wide price range? Do the proposed changes hurt renewable power projects? The REM is also considering changes to transmission; how significant could these changes be?  Will the REM changes negatively impact entities that contracted power under the existing rules?  What are your views on the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) legislation, that aims to make Canada’s electricity sector net zero by 2035?

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Peter is back from a one-week whirlwind trip to the UK where he was a guest on a government-hosted tour titled “Energy Commentators Mission.” During his visit, he met people working on the UK energy transition, including with offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and refining. 

Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear about Peter’s trip and takeaways, including interviews with some of the people he met in his travels.  We hear from: 
Andrew Rodden, Energy Transition Zone Ltd.  Pilar Amieva, X-Academy Allan MacAskill, Flotation Energy plc Jeff Richardson, Fugro Kieran Morton, Port of Aberdeen Thomas Nicoll, SSEN Transmission Emily Taylor, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) Jonathan Turner, British Consul General, Calgary, Canada Tiffany Langford, Senior Climate Policy Advisor, British High Commission based in Calgary Marla Orenstein, Canada West Foundation Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  
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This week, John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President, Office of the CEO at RBC joins the podcast. John is also the host of the Disruptors podcast. This episode is a joint podcast that is being made available on both the ARC Energy Ideas and Disruptors podcast channels. 
John, Jackie, and Peter discuss sustainable finance and Canada’s dearth of capital spending on energy transition and decarbonization.  
Questions covered during the podcast: Is the lack of a national taxonomy that defines what projects count as clean, green, and sustainable slowing investment? Should decarbonization projects, including reducing emissions from oil and gas, be included in the definition of sustainable finance?  What are the barriers to increasing private spending on Canadian clean energy projects? Considering the situation, is Canada’s 2030 emissions reduction goal achievable? To what extent are upcoming elections in the United States, Canada, and Europe slowing down clean energy investing?
Content referenced in this podcast:
RBC’s “Sustainable Finance Framework” a document that outlines the bank’s approach and methodology for sustainable financeRBC’s “Climate Action 2024” an annual report on Canada’s net zero journeyRBC’s Disruptors podcast hosted by John Stackhouse, also on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts and SpotifyPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

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