Markets Unscripted

Markets Unscripted

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2 Traders, 1 Goal - Honest Conversations Markets Unscripted brings together two traders who approach the same world from opposite sides — and still end up finding truth in the same place. Each episode cuts through noise, narrative, and prediction to uncover what’s actually moving markets — the behaviour, psychology, and structure underneath price.

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Bad News, Bearish Sentiment… and a Market Breaking Out

Join Matt’s FREE live AMA tomorrow, Tuesday! Bring your stock and trading questions. Register here:https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1917900177069/WN_jeYuoQGdTxGh-N4_4Hbfaw Can’t attend live? Register to receive the recording.Connect with the hosts:• Matt Caruso — Caruso Insights• Jason Shapiro — Crowded Market ReportThe bears got the headlines they wanted. Stocks rallied anyway.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down a market that keeps absorbing bad news—and explain why the reaction can tell you more than the headline itself.Matt highlights strength across AI hardware, cybersecurity, software, and healthcare, while Jason explains why crowded positioning alone isn’t enough to make a contrarian trade. They also debate whether bonds need to recover for stocks to keep climbing, challenge the AI bubble narrative, and discuss the evidence they want before increasing exposure.Plus: why following the tape means being willing to change your mind, why a bullish outlook doesn’t justify going all in, and how to build a trading process you can stick with through months of frustrating price action.In this episode:• The bond market debate: positioning, sentiment, and confirmation• What the semiconductor rebound says about bad-news failure• AI leadership beyond hardware• Bearish sentiment near market highs• Matt’s up/down volume and high-yield bond indicators• Position sizing, risk management, and staying flexible• Building a trading process that fits your lifeSubscribe to Markets Unscripted for weekly conversations with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.00:00 Stocks rally as bad news fails to break the market01:59 Jason’s bond warning: crowded positioning isn’t enough04:32 The three ingredients of a contrarian trade06:04 Semiconductors rebound after the AI scare07:39 Matt’s approach to finding relative strength09:23 Do higher interest rates threaten the AI trade?11:14 AI funding, regulation, and the IPO narrative14:07 Why Jason challenges the AI bubble comparison17:49 AI leadership expands beyond hardware21:49 How traders think about participating in bubbles24:02 Bearish sentiment near market highs25:31 Matt’s indicators: volume and high-yield bonds29:00 Why this breakout may look different from April’s rally32:00 Following the tape without going all in36:02 Compounding, drawdowns, and thinking beyond one trade39:18 Lessons from trading through uncertainty40:29 Predictions, confirmation bias, and financial media42:47 Accepting uncertainty and managing risk44:25 Building a process that fits your life45:54 Closing thoughts
14. sep.

Oil Above $100. Yields at 5%. Stocks Won’t Break.

Oil is above $100. The 10-year yield has touched 5%. Rate hikes are being priced in, and new concerns are building around the future of AI.On paper, it looks like the perfect environment for stocks to break down—but the market continues to hold near its highs.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine what the market’s resilience may be telling investors. They discuss whether a Fed rate hike could unexpectedly become a bullish catalyst, why trading the headlines can be so dangerous, and what the market’s reaction to bad news reveals beneath the surface.They also explore the motives behind calls to slow AI development, the enormous capital still flowing into the industry, and why returning to the market with leveraged call options could be a classic case of revenge trading.In this episode:Why the market refuses to break despite mounting risksWhether a rate hike could actually help stocks and bondsWhat oil above $100 and the 10-year yield at 5% meanWhy the reaction to news matters more than the headlineThe contradiction inside the latest AI warningsThe hidden risks of leverage and optionsWhy discipline and process ultimately separate successful tradersFollow Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.comFollow Jason Shapiro and Crowded Market Report:https://crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
8. sep.

Market’s Most Important Turning Point of 2026?

The market has spent months stuck in neutral—but beneath the surface, something may be changing.Bond yields remain one of the biggest pressures facing stocks, particularly the AI companies spending heavily to build out infrastructure. Yet several former market leaders are beginning to show strength again, even while the major indexes remain below their recent highs.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine what could finally move the market out of its sideways range—and why the reaction to the next inflation report may matter far more than the number itself.They discuss:• The signal that would show stocks are beginning to look beyond inflation• Why a market that refuses to fall on bad news deserves attention• Renewed strength across AI, semiconductor, power and infrastructure stocks• How to separate a temporary squeeze from the start of a sustainable move• Why betting on the end of the financial system has historically been a losing strategy• Crowded positioning in bonds, wheat, corn, cotton and other agricultural markets• What weakness in defense stocks may already be signaling• Why patience is essential when markets are trapped in a sideways environmentThe goal is not to predict CPI, interest rates or the Federal Reserve’s next decision. It is to watch how the market responds—and wait for the evidence before increasing risk.Learn more from Matt Caruso:https://www.carusoinsights.comRead Jason Shapiro’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
31. aug.

Stocks, Bonds & the Dollar Are ALL Falling — Only Bitcoin Is Left

The S&P is 2% off all-time highs — so why are Meta, Oracle, Broadcom, Micron and most of the AI leaders ALREADY in bear markets?Matt Caruso and Jason break down what's really going on beneath a "calm" market: a bond market under pressure in every major country at once, credit spreads priced for perfection, a Treasury Secretary who suddenly won't stay off TV, and a tape that's telling you exactly when NOT to press. Plus a rare COT flip in the NASDAQ, the El Niño trades (sugar, cotton, corn) getting dangerously crowded, why Bitcoin is the only thing working, and what Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole message means for the Fed.⏱ TIMESTAMPS00:00 Late-summer chop — markets biased to the downside02:49 The crowded 30-year bond trade (why COT alone isn't enough)05:00 It's global: Japan, Germany, UK, Canada yields all breaking out06:26 AI capex is now DEBT-fueled — why bonds ARE the AI trade09:29 "It'll make '08 look like a day in the park"11:42 Is Bessent panicking? The election-year parallel to 200813:15 High beta must lead — and the leaders are in bear markets15:06 Bitcoin: the only thing rallying15:35 Market internals: highs vs. lows show a stalled, defensive tape21:15 The blown-up hedge fund's stocks — 25% now at new lows24:36 The Barron's cover says "keep dancing" (contrarian alarm?)26:33 Fading El Niño: sugar, cotton & corn getting crowded31:02 Rare COT flip in the NASDAQ — specs are buying the dip33:33 NVIDIA's $650B revenue path vs. an awful tape35:56 IPO froth returns: Anthropic, OpenAI & bubble signs37:48 The 2000 playbook: indices at highs while leaders crash40:10 Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole: humility returns to the Fed44:31 Bottom line: it all comes down to the bond marketIf you got value from this, do the algo thing — hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBE so you don't miss next week's episode.This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.#stockmarket #bondmarket #aistocks #investing #trading #bitcoin
24. aug.

The Bond Market Is Finally Saying “Enough” and the Market is Feeling It!

The major indexes may still be near their highs, but beneath the surface, the market is sending a very different message.Consumer staples are outperforming. Coca-Cola is pushing higher. NVIDIA and other AI leaders are weakening—even when the news appears positive. At the same time, rising long-term yields and intervention in the Treasury market are raising bigger questions about how the enormous AI buildout will be financed.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro discuss:• Why defensive stocks are suddenly taking the lead• What the bond market may be warning investors about• Why AI stocks are struggling to rally on good news• The growing financing risk behind the AI infrastructure boom• Why long-term bonds may be the most contrarian trade in the world• How professional traders stack the odds without predicting the future• Why position sizing matters—even when the setup looks perfectThe market does not care about the story. Ultimately, the tape tells you what is actually happening.Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.comRead Jason Shapiro’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.#StockMarket #AIStocks #NVIDIA #BondMarket #Trading
17. aug.

Crowded Longs, Failing AI Leadership & the 90% Win-Rate Lie

The market is sitting near all-time highs—but beneath the surface, some of its former leaders are flashing warning signs. In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why many AI-related stocks have struggled to reclaim their highs despite a powerful rebound in the broader indexes. They break down the changing leadership in names such as NVIDIA, AMD, ARM, Dell, Caterpillar, Nebius, and others—and discuss why traders should never fall in love with yesterday’s winners. Jason also reveals one of the most crowded trades he currently sees, while Matt explains why rising volatility and weakening relative strength have pushed him toward a more cautious posture. Then, the conversation turns to one of the most misleading statistics in trading: win rate. Why can a 70%, 80%, or even 90% win rate be a major red flag? Matt and Jason explain how traders can win repeatedly and still suffer devastating losses—and why risk-to-reward, drawdowns, and the size of your winners matter far more than simply being right. In this episode: • Why former AI leaders are struggling• The warning beneath the market’s record highs• Why lagging stocks are rarely bargains• Jason’s crowded-trade warning on copper• The hidden danger of short selling• Why trading more often can work against you• The truth behind advertised 90% win rates• How professional traders evaluate performance Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.com Follow Jason Shapiro and the Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com This content is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice.
10. aug.

Bears Sound Smart. Bulls Make Money.

The market is back near all-time highs, corporate earnings are surging, and strength is expanding far beyond a handful of AI stocks. Yet many traders remain fixated on finding the next major collapse.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why bearish arguments can sound so convincing—even while the market continues moving higher. They discuss the danger of becoming emotionally attached to the short side, why traders should focus on the market’s reaction to news, and what would actually signal that the bullish trend is beginning to break.Matt and Jason also break down the crowded positioning in the Dow, the recent breakout and reversal in the S&P 500, the upcoming inflation test, booming corporate earnings, expanding liquidity, and the growing strength across international markets, commodities, and traditional industries.The goal is not to remain bullish forever. It is to stop predicting what should happen and start responding to what the market is actually telling you.
6. juli

Banks, Gold, Biotech & AI: The Rotation Trade

AI stocks finally got hit with their first major test of this uptrend.After months of relentless strength, the leading AI names saw sharp volatility, major pullbacks, and a wave of rotation into banks, biotech, gold, small caps, and other areas of the market.So is the AI trade over?Or is this just the first real shakeout before the next leg higher?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the current market rotation, the crowded macro narrative around rates, the setup in gold and the dollar, why banks and healthcare have started to lead, and what the recent selloff in AI stocks may really be telling investors.They also discuss why big winners come with brutal pullbacks, why process matters more than prediction, and why no strategy avoids pain — it only defines how you handle it.Topics covered:AI stock volatilityMarket rotation into banks, biotech, and small capsGold, bonds, the dollar, and rate expectationsWhy crowded narratives can be dangerousThe first pullback to the 50-day moving averageWhy the AI trade may not be over yetTrading psychology after big gainsWhy there is no “perfect” trading strategyThis is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and all trading decisions should be based on your own process and risk management.

2 Traders, 1 Goal - Honest Conversations Markets Unscripted brings together two traders who approach the same world from opposite sides — and still end up finding truth in the same place. Each episode cuts through noise, narrative, and prediction to uncover what’s actually moving markets — the behaviour, psychology, and structure underneath price.

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Markets Unscripted
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2026
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38
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