Stack the Week

John Dickerson

Stack the Week is a weekly review of the news — what mattered, what's coming, and why it all connects. With occasional acts of wonder. John Dickerson reads the week, ranks it, and accounts for it. www.johndickerson.com

  1. 1 day ago

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for Monday, July 20 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the notes. And those Apple podcast reviews help introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you polish your door knocker, trim back the basil or try to put the screen door back on the track. So here we go, with what mattered today: Seventeen, and Twenty Ships The Pentagon on Monday identified First Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, as the latest Americans killed in the war with Iran. Both were killed in an Iranian attack on a U.S. air base in Jordan. The U.S. military death toll in the Iran war now stands at 17. That number includes a service member who was killed in Iraq while conducting a “controlled detonation” of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian one-way attack drone. Approximately 430 American personnel have been injured in the war, according to Reuters. The Pentagon is no longer regularly publishing a cumulative wounded count and has also withheld details about earlier attacks in Jordan that reportedly injured dozens and damaged helicopters. The Pentagon is also no longer regularly publishing the number of Iranian sites struck each day. Its last major public briefing on the war was in early May. The Pentagon provided frequent, televised briefings during the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, despite limited independent battlefield access. Operational security may explain some of the current silence, but it also makes it harder to measure losses against a clearly articulated objective. With fewer official details, it becomes harder for the public and their elected representatives to evaluate the human and financial costs of the war. Recent polling finds most Americans now say the Iran war was a mistake and want it ended as soon as possible, with opposition to continued strikes running well ahead of support. U.S. strikes are headed into their consecutive 9th day. “We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” a U.S. official told The Washington Post, as dwindling air-defense and long-range munitions and battle damage constrained plans for a wider Iran war. Here’s the Hormuz count. Roughly 130 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day before the war. Just 20 passed over the weekend; 18 used the corridor mandated by Iran. Last week there was a debate about who controlled the strait. The behavior of the ships suggests that the limited number of vessels still making the passage are largely following Iran’s rules. Yemen’s Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, specifically threatening Saudi shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to the Associated Press. Saudi Arabia has been using its East–West Pipeline to send oil to the Red Sea and bypass Hormuz; threats near the Red Sea’s southern gateway therefore place additional pressure on the kingdom’s principal workaround. AAA listed the national average for regular gasoline over $4. Gas rose to $4.50 in May and fell below $4 in June. The consequences are not confined to American pump prices: Associated Press reporting from northern Nigeria found families skipping meals as petrol costs jumped and food prices followed, including one father who lost his taxi income and watched his 18-month-old daughter relapse into malnutrition. UNICEF warned that continued war could push as many as 23.4 million additional children into monetary poverty by year’s end, with at least 80 percent of them in Africa and Asia. Ukraine and Russia Attack Ukraine and Russia opened the week with another demonstration that the war’s air campaign is becoming broader, faster and harder for either side to contain. Ukraine launched hundreds of drones toward Moscow from late Sunday into Monday. According to the Russians, most were intercepted far from the capital and 85 near it. Regional officials reported 10 people wounded and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine said its targets included logistics sites, an oil depot and vessels linked to Russia’s sanctions-evading “shadow fleet.” The assault followed a major Russian bombardment of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Russia is using more ballistic missiles, which travel at supersonic speed and leave civilians and air defenses only minutes to react. The Institute for the Study of War says Russia has already fired more ballistic missiles in July than it reportedly produces in a month, suggesting Moscow may be drawing down stockpiles. Ukraine, unable to match Russia missile for missile, is exploiting increasingly capable long-range drones against a vast territory that is difficult to defend. Ukrainian strikes this weekend hit warehouses operated by Wildberries, Russia’s largest e-commerce marketplace, causing a fire that burned for two days and was visible in satellite imagery. The episode undercuts the Kremlin’s effort to insulate ordinary Russians from the war. Record Student-loan defaults Student borrowers are still feeling the pain of the pandemic. About 9.5 million people—roughly one in five federal borrowers—are in default, with $233.3 billion unpaid. That appears to be a record high for federal student‑loan defaults, and the numbers have been climbing rather than stabilizing. The default population has jumped from 5.3 million since borrowers again became eligible to default in June 2025, after a one‑year “on‑ramp” gave them a buffer while payments restarted. During the pandemic, most federal borrowers were allowed to stop paying for more than three years without going delinquent or defaulting, and interest did not accrue. For borrowers, those numbers translate into missed rent, postponed medical bills and the feeling that the degree they were told would unlock the middle class has instead locked them out of it. The Trump administration has eliminated SAVE, the most generous income‑based repayment plan, and is moving borrowers into a much simpler but less forgiving setup with one flat payment plan and one income‑based plan. In practice, that means many people who were shielded by very low or even zero payments under SAVE will be shifted into plans that demand more money each month and offer fewer ways to cap or reduce what they owe over time. Another 1.4 million borrowers were already late enough in March to be at risk of default within six months, suggesting the default total may not be the peak. As defaults spread, borrowers lose access to credit or pay more for it, which can mean fewer car purchases, delayed home‑buying and less money circulating in the local economies that depend on their spending. The damage is concentrated. Mississippi’s default rate is 28.3 percent, and Southern states cluster near the top, with Puerto Rico’s rate higher than any state. Borrowers who attended for‑profit colleges are faring worst: about a third are at least 90 days behind, more than twice the rate among borrowers from public institutions. For‑profit schools tend to enroll more low‑income and first‑generation students, charge higher prices and deliver weaker job outcomes, leaving graduates and dropouts with more debt and less income to repay it. For many borrowers, this shows up first as credit damage and growing delinquency; for those who fall into default, it can eventually mean wage or Social Security garnishment when collections resume. The system was built on the promise that borrowing for college is a ticket into the American middle class. A record default count, concentrated in poorer states and among for‑profit students, is a sign that promise is breaking down for many of the people who needed it most. Burnham Takes Over Britain’s prime minister runs the world’s fifth‑largest economy and a major nuclear power. Decisions from No. 10 change how Britain taxes, spends and regulates. They also affect global markets, NATO planning and arguments over populism, immigration and inequality. When that job changes hands, it can change how a key U.S. ally treats energy, trade, finance and security—and how other democracies think about their own politics. Today, that power formally passed to Andy Burnham. Keir Starmer went to Buckingham Palace to resign, and King Charles asked Burnham to form a government. As we’ve told you before, Labour had already picked Burnham as its next leader; today is the constitutional handoff that makes it official. Burnham then walked into 10 Downing Street for the first time as prime minister, promised a new 10‑year plan for Britain and said he wants to put “life’s essentials” like housing and basic services back under public control. He promises to tackle Britain’s cost‑of‑living crisis with changes people would feel quickly: cheaper bus fares, more help with household bills and relief for renters who have seen costs jump. When he talks about giving local governments more authority—devolution—he means shifting decisions on housing, transport, schools and local investment out of London and into city regions and towns, backed by a new “Number 10 North” office in Manchester, meant to give the regions a direct line into the center of government. And when he calls for greater public control of buses and water, he is talking about moving some services out of purely private hands, with tighter public oversight and, in some cases, public ownership of struggling utilities such as Thames Water. He inherits slow growth, high public debt, strained public services and the lingering effects of Brexit, Britain’s 2020 exit from the European Union. Burnham also faces Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s anti‑immigration party, which is drawing voters from both Labour and the Conservatives. The question is whether he can scale up what worked for him in Manchester—and whether vote

    Stack the Week Daily
  2. 4 days ago

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for Friday, July 17 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the notes. And the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you organize the new bookshelves, weed the garden bed or arrange briquets to get moving on that brisket that everyone loves so. For paid readers, I’ve gone back in and put some thoughts about why I made some of the choices I did. Okay, let’s start. Iran Infrastructure Week The Iran war is an infrastructure story today. U.S. bombing moved deeper into the systems civilians and markets depend on: bridges, ports, shipping routes, energy sites and drinking-water plants. The campaignis aimed at the physical network that lets Iran move troops, supplies and oil. The chronic kink in the Strait of Hormuz is changing corporate behavior: According to the AP, Chevron is investing in Iraqi oil fields and a pipeline route that could bypass Hormuz. Remember the time when people used to talk about this war being over? Now companies are placing bets about a permanent condition where the Strait of Hormuz is up for grabs. Iran answered by widening the target set on its side of the Gulf. One Iranian strike damaged a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant. In a dry Gulf country, desalination is not a side industry; it is the tap. Kuwait gets about 90 percent of its drinking water from desalination. The fire there was contained, but the point was made: modern Gulf water and power systems are now a part of Iran’s target list. Iran also expanded the map, striking eastern Syria in its first attack on Syrian territory in this conflict, saying it aimed at a U.S. special operations command center. The conflict is spreading, which makes it harder to stop and increases the chances that more countries—and their soldiers, supplies, and economies—get pulled in. I was unsatisfied about this Syrian bit. On the one hand, expanding the war and the downsides of that are kind of obvious, but I felt like there was something more to be said about an attack in Syria, but I just couldn’t figure out what that was by the time we got to publication hour. Iranian officials say dozens have been killed and hundreds wounded in recent days. The United States is on its seventh straight day of attacks. ICE Pressure The Associated Press reports that David Brouillette, the ICE agent who killed Johan Guerrero, has a long history of violent, terrifying behavior and serious mental‑health struggles, raising the question of how someone with that record cleared ICE’s vetting, received a gun, and was sent into an armed immigration operation. Johan Guerrero was in the country legally, was not the target, and was shot while his wife watched. I came across this interview while I was looking for how to pronounce David Brouillette’s name and came across this interview with his ex-wife. “How do you keep getting into these jobs when you’re around guns all the time.” It’s an extraordinary interview. AP reports that Brouillette’s relatives warned supervisors about his instability and abuse, that he cycled through law‑enforcement and public‑safety jobs, and that he was removed from a volunteer fire department after disputes and refusal to follow orders—each a red flag that should have mattered in a federal background check. Democrats have called for an investigation. That investigation is really about whether the pressure to deport has hardened into a machine that reliably produces human tragedy. Start with hiring and vetting. If ICE is expanding quickly, are standards slipping? Are background checks catching histories of violence, instability, misconduct, or bad judgment before people are armed and sent into volatile encounters, or has the system accepted risks it once would have rejected to meet the deportation quota? Also training. These operations increasingly look less like civil immigration enforcement and more like fugitive work: vehicle stops, surprise encounters, families nearby, frightened people, split‑second decisions. If officers are not trained for de‑escalation, for mistaken identity and families in the line of fire, the policy is not only aggressive, it is careless. This is mission creep on top of mission creep. Immigration enforcement moved away from focusing on “the worst of the worst,” the phrase that was meant to reassure voters that deportation would focus on the most dangerous people. Now it is shifting toward a more militarized posture in which civil enforcement begins to resemble street policing or tactical arrest work. ICE says it conducts more stops away from homes because agents often cannot enter without a warrant. But that limit is not a loophole to route around; it is the system drawing a line. Slowness, imposed by courts and standards, protects values, including that human life should have some value. Voters wanted deportations, but that signal is not a license to do anything. They expect promises to be fulfilled inside American rules, which is why the language became “the worst of the worst” in the first place. Candidate Trump was pledging restraint. And finally there is a permission structure here. If officials describe immigrants as invaders, praise agents after deaths, attack judges and communities, and raise quotas instead of pausing after tragedy, agents learn something: that force will be defended first and examined later. Maybe. The Burnham Age Begins Andy Burnham was elected leader of Britain’s governing Labour Party on Friday, making him the country’s seventh prime minister in a decade. Though new traditions come slowly to a venerable political system, that pace of turnover almost begs for a new ritual in keeping with Britain’s love of ceremony: something like each time a new occupant checks bags at 10 Downing Street, he should pose for a photo next to the catapult that will eventually eject them from office. At least then the exits would start to match the drama of the arrivals. The previous PM Keir Starmer resigned in June under months of pressure from Labour MPs who feared he would lose the next election to the hard-right Reform UK. Burnham hopes to forestall the fate that met his predecessors by rebalancing power. He earned the nickname “King of the North” as mayor of Greater Manchester, where he became a national figure by arguing that northern England deserved more power, money and respect. In his victory speech, he said Britain took a wrong turn in the 1980s, when political power became centralized and economic power was privatized. His core promise is the biggest rebalancing of power Britain has ever seen: moving control over transport, housing, skills, spending and economic growth away from Whitehall—the shorthand for London’s central government departments—and toward regional leaders. Burnham is trying to answer the same political disease that feeds populism all over the world: voters who think government happens somewhere else, for someone else. His immediate political task is to stop the nationalist Reform UK’s rise by convincing those voters that Labour can still hear them. His governing task is harder: prove that devolution is not a slogan, but a machine that can make life cheaper, fairer and more competent in the places that feel ignored. This preceding paragraph is essentially the kind that I’d like to have in every item in the stack. What happened, why it happened and then this: why it matters beyond the narrow confines of the story. Burnham’s first test is whether “power out of Whitehall” survives Treasury arithmetic. A high-debt, low-growth state can promise regions control over housing, transport, skills and growth, the question is whether it will also let them– or can let them– control enough money to make those promises real. Gaza Funeral Strike People gathered to bury one victim of the war. The war added more. An Israeli strike hit a funeral in Gaza on Friday, killing at least seven people and wounding 22, according to Palestinian officials. The funeral was for a Palestinian killed in an earlier strike the same day. The formal ceasefire agreed in October reduced the heaviest fighting, but it has not stopped killing in Gaza. Gaza’s Health Ministry says at least 1,123 people have been killed since the ceasefire took effect. Israel says its continued strikes respond to militant attacks and ceasefire violations; five Israeli soldiers have been killed over the same period. Xi’s AI pitch The next generation of AI will not just live inside chatbots that explain soccer offsides rules. It will make decisions in hospitals, schools, workplaces, police departments, banks, border systems, energy grids and media feeds. It will help decide which job applicants are interviewed, which medical scans get flagged, which neighborhoods get more patrols, which loans are approved and which power plants turn on when the grid is stressed. That is why the real question for humans is not which company has the biggest models—or which company has the largest initial public offering—but who writes the rules that protect ordinary people. Neither the United States nor China, the world’s two biggest AI powers, offers a clear, trusted way to protect everyday rights while this technology spreads. The incentives for dominance and profit often point away from those guardrails rather than toward them. That was the backdrop for Xi Jinping’s speech at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on Friday. He cast AI as a “symphony of international cooperation” and used the stage to launch the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, WAICO, an intergovernmental body headquartered in Shanghai and advertised as a way to help poorer and middle‑income countries catch up. In plain language, WAICO is meant to be a club for governments that want help using AI.

    Stack the Week Daily
  3. 5 days ago

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for Thursday, July 16 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the steady stream of notes. And the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you mow the lawn, debone a filet, or drive back from the urgent clinic after the rescue dog bites your hand. (I’m fine, but today’s stack is going to be a little short.) Okay, let’s start. Iran Expansion The U.S. has been hitting Iran for five straight days, striking farther north towards Tehran while broadening the kinds of targets it is attacking. Reuters reports that three U.S. officials describe the latest strikes as “shaping operations”—attacks intended not only to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but to destroy the military capabilities the United States would want removed before any larger campaign. That helps explain why recent strikes have expanded beyond forces directly threatening shipping to include air defenses, command centers, surveillance sites, energy infrastructure and areas tied to Iran’s nuclear program. But these hits don’t necessarily have to be softening the ground for more intervention. The New York Times reports attacks this week on Iran’s naval power, oil production and nuclear infrastructure are meant to degrade the systems that would allow Iran to sustain a longer war. In other words, make them cry uncle. Here’s the daily count you’re used to: Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on an average day. On Wednesday, only nine made it. Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that Iran continues expressing interest in a deal. Iran reinforced that signal by releasing dual U.S.-Iranian citizen Dena Karari, whom President Trump called a goodwill gesture. Both governments continue to escalate militarily while leaving open the possibility of negotiations. More Than 500 Rohingya Feared Dead More than 500 people are feared dead after two crowded refugee boats disappeared in the Bay of Bengal. The passengers were Rohingya, a Muslim minority from Myanmar, which sits between India and Thailand. The Rohingya have lived there for generations, but Myanmar’s government says they are immigrants from neighboring Bangladesh rather than one of the country’s recognized ethnic groups. Human rights organizations reject that claim. Instead, they say the Rohingya have long faced ethnic and religious discrimination in the predominantly Buddhist country. In 2017, Myanmar’s military drove hundreds of thousands of Rohingya from their homes by burning villages, killing civilians, and forcing families to flee. Most escaped to refugee camps in neighboring Bangladesh. Life in those camps is difficult. People have few opportunities to work, little hope of building a permanent future, and almost no legal way to move to another country. Some decided to risk a dangerous sea voyage, hoping to reach Malaysia, where they believed they could find safety and jobs. The boats left in late June. One disappeared almost immediately. The other is believed to have sunk off Myanmar’s coast on July 8. The United Nations is still trying to confirm exactly what happened, which is why officials say the passengers are “feared dead.” If the number is confirmed, it would rank among the deadliest refugee boat disasters in recent years. More than 800 migrants died when an overcrowded boat sank off Libya in 2015, and more than 600 were believed lost when the Adriana sank off Greece in 2023. Stops ICE Brings Back Vehicle Stops The Atlantic reports that President Trump insisted ICE resume stopping suspects in their cars after some of his supporters criticized the agency’s brief pause, arguing it signaled a retreat from aggressive immigration enforcement. ICE says it increasingly has little choice. Many migrants have learned that if they remain inside their homes, ICE often needs a judicial warrant to enter and arrest them. Catching someone after they leave in a vehicle avoids that problem. But stopping moving cars creates a different danger. Unlike local police, ICE agents generally receive far less training in conducting high-risk traffic stops. Those encounters can unfold in seconds, forcing agents to decide whether a driver is trying to escape or whether the vehicle poses a deadly threat. The law draws an important line. The Supreme Court has held that officers cannot use deadly force simply because a suspect is fleeing. Deadly force is allowed only if an officer has probable cause to believe the suspect poses an immediate threat of death or serious physical injury to the officer or someone else. Update: Court filings cited in recent reporting allege that Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, the man shot and killed by ICE agents in Houston, had drugs in his vehicle. If that allegation proves true, it may describe what investigators found after the shooting. It does not answer the central question investigators must resolve: What did the agents know before they fired, and did they reasonably believe Salgado Araujo posed an immediate deadly threat? Evidence discovered afterward cannot, by itself, justify an earlier decision to use deadly force. Beginning in September, immigration officials deciding whether to approve a green card can once again weigh an applicant’s use of some public benefits as evidence that the person may become financially dependent on the government. Supporters say the rule helps ensure that people granted permanent residency are unlikely to depend on government assistance. They argue immigration policy should favor applicants who can support themselves without relying on public benefits. Critics argue its biggest impact falls on families who are legally entitled to benefits but avoid medical care, food assistance, or other programs because they worry using them could hurt their chances of getting a green card. Wildfire Smoke Spreads Across the East Everyone east of the Rockies can see this story out the window. As I type this I feel like a ham hock. Hazy skies, a milky sun, and, in some places, the smell of smoke. All are the result of large wildfires burning in Canada and Minnesota. The smoke has drifted hundreds of miles south and east. A large area of high pressure, sometimes called a heat dome, is trapping it close to the ground instead of allowing it to blow away. More than 115 million people could experience unhealthy air, and cities including Philadelphia have issued Code Red air quality alerts. The smoke is expected to linger through at least Friday in parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions will improve only when the winds shift or the weather pattern trapping the smoke begins to break down. As long as the fires continue burning, smoky conditions could return. Ebola Outbreak Ebola is moving in opposite directions across central Africa. In eastern Congo, confirmed infections have risen from roughly 1,926 to 2,073, while deaths climbed from 702 to 796. Uganda, meanwhile, has discharged its last Ebola patient and begun the World Health Organization’s 42-day countdown toward declaring its outbreak over. Uganda’s outbreak remained comparatively small and occurred in a more stable security environment. Workers could identify cases, trace contacts and isolate patients before the virus spread widely. In eastern Congo, years of conflict have repeatedly interrupted that. The Wall Street Journal reports one reason the outbreak continues to worsen in Congo: false claims spreading through WhatsApp voice notes have led people to hide deaths and attack health workers. Rumors circulated in Uganda as well, but they did not overwhelm the response. In Congo, misinformation has combined with armed conflict, displacement and distrust of authorities, making it much harder for health workers to find infected people before they infect others. The United States has now imposed an unusual “do not board” policy, meaning Americans who have recently been in the outbreak zone cannot simply board a commercial flight home. Previously, they could travel if they met ordinary screening requirements. Instead of relying mainly on screening after travelers begin their journey, the policy works by preventing potentially exposed passengers from boarding commercial flights in the first place, stopping them at the ticket counter rather than after they arrive in the United States. Ukraine Fires the Minister Who Wanted to Modernize the War Ukraine’s government has removed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov (mih-KAI-loh fed-OR-ov), the 35-year-old architect of much of the country’s military innovation, after a reported clash with Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi (oh-lek-SAHN-der seer-SKEE). Ukraine cannot match Russia soldier for soldier or shell for shell. Fedorov argued its best chance was to make every soldier more effective by using drones, software, artificial intelligence, and faster weapons development. Under his leadership, Ukraine dramatically expanded drone production, pushed to move supplies with unmanned ground vehicles instead of soldiers, and argued that technology—not manpower—would determine the future of the war. His critics argued that winning today’s war still requires the basics: mobilizing troops, holding trenches, maintaining discipline, and running a large conventional army. The argument isn’t really about whether technology matters. It’s about how quickly a country fighting for survival should bet the future of its army on it. Meanwhile, the fighting has shifted to another battlefield: grain. Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov, disrupting routes that carry about a quarter of Russia’s grain exports. Russia has answered by intensifying strikes on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, cutting Ukraine’s grain export capacity by roughly one-third. Together, Russia and Ukraine account for about a third of t

    Stack the Week Daily
  4. 6 days ago

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for Wednesday, July 15 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the steady stream of notes. And the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you mow the lawn, debone a filet, or wipe down the whiteboard on which you’ve been trying to sync the movement of the planets with your Google calendar. Okay, let’s start. Iran 2.0 Washington Post columnist David Ignatius calls this phase of the Iran war Iran Fiasco 2.0. His argument: the administration went back to bombing without solving the problem that made the first round fail. Iran doesn’t need to win. It only needs to keep threatening ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which it can still do after every American strike. Same campaign, same result. Which is what David Sanger of the New York Times asked weeks ago on Air Force One, and got called a traitor for: if you start bombing again, why do you expect a different result? The United States restored the naval blockade of Hormuz Wednesday and flew a fourth overnight round of strikes, hitting Iranian military sites including an army barracks. By late afternoon the US military said it was launching another wave of strikes, the third in 24 hours. President Trump threatened bridges and power plants unless Iran negotiates. He would not rule out ground troops. The attacks continue until he decides they’re enough, he says. Iran fired missiles and drones toward Jordan, which intercepted three. Alerts in Bahrain. In Kuwait, cruise missiles, a ballistic missile, and dozens of drones — the heaviest attack on that country so far — wounding naval personnel. The Revolutionary Guard set its terms: energy exports stay open to everyone or to no one. If Iran can’t sell its oil, nobody sells theirs. Gas prices are going up as you’d expect. Regular is at $3.89. Diesel is near $5, which is the number that matters more, because diesel moves the trucks that move the groceries. John Ellis’s News Items points to a War on the Rocks analysis on how Iran built for this. After studying previous American wars, it designed a mosaic defense — a decentralized system in which local commanders and allied forces keep fighting after headquarters is gone. Iran handed real authority to local commanders and to allies outside Iran — the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq. They don’t need to be told what to do. So bombing Tehran doesn’t stop the missile crew on the coast or the drone team in Yemen. There is no headquarters to destroy. That’s why each new round of bombing can leave the underlying military problem intact. The plan is already inside everyone’s head. Military experts told NPR the strikes so far have not destroyed enough of Iran’s missiles, drones, and small boats to make the water safe. Even optimistic military assessments describe a campaign measured in weeks, not days. That is a much larger and much longer war than the administration has described. ICE Deaths A 28-year-old Mexican national ran from federal agents at a St. Augustine gas station and was struck by a tractor-trailer. He is the third man to die in an immigration-enforcement encounter in eight days. The other two: Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, Houston. Agents followed his work van. DHS said he weaponized the vehicle and tried to run over an officer. Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare said the agents’ actions resembled no law-enforcement tactic he’d seen, and that they were either untrained or putting themselves where firing into a car could be justified. Araujo was here illegally. He was not the target of the operation. Johan Sebastián Guerrero, Biddeford, Maine. Video caught shouting, gunfire, and his car turning in a circle before agents pulled him out while his wife and young daughter watched. His father said he had legal status and worked two jobs. Neither agent who fired wore a body camera. They were not required to. DHS now requires each arrest team to include at least one — the team, not each officer, and not necessarily the officer who fires. About half of DHS field officers have cameras. ICE has released no footage from Houston or Maine and has not named the shooters. Neither dead man was armed. Alex Pretti and Renée Good died in Minneapolis before these three, and they were described as aggressors too. They were not. Since Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, agents in the immigration crackdown have shot at least 22 people. Six died. Three were American citizens. Nearly all involved officers firing into cars. The Washington Post names the recurring question: whether officers step into a car’s path and then call the moving car a weapon. Trump’s answer: ICE personnel are doing a “GREAT job,” and the government cannot give up what he called one of its most effective crime-fighting tools. After Pretti and Good, the administration changed personnel, discussed body cameras, promised less controversy. Then Congress approved multiyear funding with no mandatory accountability provisions. This week ICE paused most vehicle stops after two fatal shootings. Border czar Tom Homan insisted it was a short review, not a policy change, and said agents would soon return to “doing what they do best.” Less than a day later, President Trump ordered the tactic resumed. The question is what evidence a citizen should require before accepting the government’s claim that a car became a weapon — when the government holds the footage, the identities, and the narrative, and has released none. Three men are dead in eight days, two of them shot by federal agents, the third chased into traffic. The agents work for the federal government and are paid by taxpayers. A country gets to decide who lives in it, but the people who voted for deportations were told it would only be the worst of the worst. Neither of the men shot was. Araujo wasn’t the man they came for. Guerrero was here legally. These were mistakes, but no one in government is treating them that way. No regret from DHS, ICE, or the White House. No condolence to Guerrero’s wife, who watched. The response was to praise the agents and defend the tactic. An institution that thought it had made a mistake would say something. Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank Israeli and Lebanese officials concluded a sixth round of U.S.-mediated talks in Rome Wednesday. The subject: “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces would withdraw and the Lebanese Army would take over. The test is whether the Lebanese state can hold ground Israel gives up, which means keeping Hezbollah off it. Trump told Netanyahu last Thursday to pull troops out of southern Syria and Lebanon, Axios reported: “They don’t want you there. You should redeploy.” An Israeli strike in central Gaza Wednesday killed a man, his wife, and their six-year-old daughter. Days earlier, a strike on a police station in a northern Gaza refugee camp killed several people, including a senior police commander; Israel said the station was used for military activities. In the West Bank, the Israeli government announced 34 new settlements. Ministers called it a historic expansion meant to prevent the creation of a future Palestinian state. Netanyahu himself endorsed a demilitarized Palestinian state in a 2009 speech. He spent the years after walking it back, and in 2019 campaigned on annexing the settlements instead. The land these 34 will sit on is the land that the state was supposed to occupy. Todd Blanche Confirmation Hearings Sen. John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, asked Todd Blanche a softball at his confirmation hearing: Is the president your friend? “I’m his lawyer,” Blanche said. Then, almost instantly: “Was his lawyer. And now I’m the deputy attorney general.” The whole hearing lived inside that correction. Blanche defended Donald Trump in the hush-money trial and the federal prosecutions. Since Watergate, the attorney general has been expected to run the Justice Department independently of the White House. The question before the Senate was whether someone who spent years serving one man can convincingly serve the institution and the Constitution instead. Adam Schiff, a former federal prosecutor whom Trump has targeted for prosecution, asked, “What happened to the Todd Blanche who was a prosecutor in the Southern District of New York?” Blanche asked to respond. “I am still here. I am the same exact person I was when I was a federal prosecutor.” Democrats argued his record now tells a different story. They pointed to the indictment of James Comey, investigations of John Brennan and Cassidy Hutchinson, an IRS settlement that a federal judge has since condemned as a bad-faith misuse of the legal process, and Blanche’s continued insistence that the 2020 election was rigged. Some 16,000 employees have left the Justice Department during his tenure, including more than a quarter of its attorneys. More than 1,200 former Justice Department employees signed a letter opposing his confirmation. More than 100 former judges filed a disciplinary complaint against him. Ten of Jeffrey Epstein’s victims sat in the hearing room. Senator Dick Durbin asked Blanche whether he would meet with them. “They have lawyers,” Blanche replied. “I’m prohibited from meeting directly with them.” Democrats noted that Blanche personally interviewed Ghislaine Maxwell last summer while she was represented by counsel. Senator Cory Booker called Blanche’s explanation “utter nonsense.” Blanche raised his voice. “You can ask the questions, but you cannot control my answers.” Since three million pages of Epstein files were released—after Congress forced the disclosure—the department has prosecuted no one. Blanche’s predecessor, Pam Bondi, said Blanche was responsible for the release that publicly identified victims by name. Republican Senator John

    Stack the Week Daily
  5. 14 Jul

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for July 14th, Tuesday. The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, feedback, the emails, and the steady stream of notes. Oh and the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. If you’re reading this text on a screen instead of listening to the audio, remember that this is also designed as a podcast. You can hear me read it while you’re commuting, folding laundry, or simply reclining into the posture that allows you to be delivered from the uncertainties and cares and illusions that beset the people of the world. Okay, let’s start. Drop the Toll Keep the Blockade Clap on. Clap off. The Clapper! If you are a certain age, you may remember that advertisement for a device that allowed you to turn on the light by simply clapping. You clapped it on and clapped it off. The Iran war is the Clapper war. Mostly it’s been clap on. The U.S. military says it hit dozens of Iranian targets Monday, then struck six coastal cities and islands early Tuesday. Iran fired back at Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait and hit three tankers, killing two mariners and wounding 14, according to the International Maritime Organization. Before the war, 147 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a day. Last week the count was 22, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks global shipping. Then came the clap off: the president’s Monday idea of charging a 20 percent toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced he would replace the fee with trade and investment deals from Gulf states, saying kings and emirs had called him. “I don’t think anybody should be able to charge a fee for the strait,” said the man who proposed the fee the day before. Yesterday, when I presented the president’s plan for a 20 percent fee, I mused out loud about how such a thing might be calculated. A basic question. Nothing fancy about it. The president didn’t quite get there. Neither did his administration. The Wall Street Journal reports that hours after Trump announced the toll, aides rushed to figure out who would collect it — some officials assumed the Treasury Department, others argued for the Energy Department, since the cargo in question is oil. Officials were planning meetings on how to carry out the policy when the president abandoned it. Semafor, citing a White House official, reported that Trump ordered up the toll over the objections of advisers who had talked him out of the idea before. Axios reported that Gulf governments, whom the plan was supposedly built around, learned of it by surprise and called the White House asking what it meant. The toll also contradicted the president’s own secretary of state, who said weeks ago that international law forbids any country from charging tolls on an international waterway. And then clap on again. Even as the toll vanished, the United States resumed a naval blockade of Iranian ports Tuesday afternoon, attempting to choke off Iran’s trade by other means. I would recommend Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan’s Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump, which outlines in detail the way Donald Trump makes decisions. The scramble on the 20 percent is the daily operating procedure in the White House: decisions made on a whim which everyone else has to scramble after. The authors report that a half-dozen people around Trump make decisions so fast that the Pentagon and State Department often learn what’s going on after the fact. These are decisions about a war of choice whose consequences now extend well beyond the battlefield—to global shipping, energy markets and the movement of commerce through one of the world’s most important waterways. . Inflation: A Bit of Good News—For Now Inflation has two clocks. One asks, “What happened this month?” The other asks, “How much more expensive is life than it was a year ago?” This month’s clock showed something unusual: prices, on average, fell 0.4% from May to June—the biggest monthly decline in four years. Imagine walking into the grocery store on June 1 and buying a cart full of groceries. Then imagine buying that same cart on July 1 and finding it cost a few dollars less. That’s unusual. Prices don’t normally move down across the whole economy. They usually keep creeping upward, just faster or slower than before. But the yearly clock still showed prices were 3.5% higher than they were a year ago. That’s what economists mean when they say “annual inflation” was 3.5%: the average basket of things Americans buy still costs 3.5% more than it did last June, even though prices eased during the most recent month. One month doesn’t erase years of inflation. The cost of living is still high compared with what most people remember paying. But it does suggest businesses, on average, weren’t raising prices in June the way they had been. Economists were also looking for signs that higher energy costs from the Iran war had spread into everything else—restaurant meals, clothing, rent, airline tickets and thousands of other prices. They largely hadn’t. Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy categories, was flat. As economist Michael Metcalfe put it, “Yes, gas prices went up, but nothing else did, more or less.” That’s why this report surprised economists. Many expected both higher oil prices and President Trump’s tariffs to push inflation more broadly through the economy. June’s numbers suggested that hadn’t happened—at least not yet. Some economists think businesses have absorbed part of the higher tariff costs instead of passing them on to consumers. Others think the effects simply haven’t worked their way through the economy yet. The prediction has not yet come true, and economists don’t yet agree why. Investors liked what they saw. The nation’s biggest banks also reported stronger-than-expected earnings. Banks make money when consumers keep spending, businesses borrow to expand, companies sell stock and bonds, and investors continue making deals. Strong bank profits don’t mean every American is thriving, but they do suggest that much of the economy is still moving. Together, the inflation report and the bank earnings lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates to keep inflation from accelerating, which would increase the cost of economic activity. Maine ICE Shooting Suppose I told you that a young Latino immigrant had been shot and killed by federal immigration agents. He wasn’t the person they were looking for. He was in a vehicle. Agents said they were forced to shoot. There is no body-camera footage. Which case am I describing? You can’t know, because those details now describe two fatal ICE shootings in the last week. That is an extraordinary sentence to be able to write. The latest happened Monday in Biddeford, Maine. Twenty-six-year-old Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero (pronounced yo-HAHN seh-bas-tee-AHN doo-RAHN geh-REH-roh), a Colombian immigrant who lived with his wife and young daughter, was killed after ICE agents attempted to stop his vehicle during surveillance of another man with a final deportation order. Authorities now acknowledge Durán Guerrero was not the target of the operation. The Department of Homeland Security says an officer fired because he feared for public safety after Durán Guerrero attempted to flee in his vehicle. And by flee in his vehicle, I mean leave a place in the same manner you would to go to the store. One witness heard the wounded driver say, “I tried to stop.” Security camera footage shows officers pulling his body from the vehicle afterward, but not the shooting itself. The agents were not wearing body cameras, leaving investigators to reconstruct the encounter from witness testimony and the officers’ own accounts. The Houston shooting last week ran along the same lines: a bystander, not the target, dead in a vehicle, no footage. These shootings come as ICE has dramatically accelerated enforcement. The agency arrested more than 10,000 people in five days at the end of June—roughly 2,000 arrests a day—as the administration pushed agents to sharply increase arrests. In response, ICE has ordered agents to suspend most vehicle stops while it reviews the incidents and provides additional training. Ebola Is Moving Faster Than Public Health The World Health Organization issued one of its starkest warnings yet Tuesday: eastern Congo’s Ebola outbreak continues to outpace efforts to stop it. Nearly 2,000 people have been infected and more than 700 have died. The outbreak, caused by a rare strain with no approved vaccine or treatment, has become the fastest-growing Ebola epidemic ever recorded in Africa. If you’ve been following this story with us, that may sound familiar—and in one sense it is. We’ve told you about the conflict, the attacks on health workers, the lack of a vaccine and the invisible spread. Today’s development is different. The WHO is no longer describing obstacles. It is saying, plainly, that those obstacles are now winning. Four out of five new infections are coming from people who were never on any contact-tracing list. In other words, health workers are no longer interrupting chains of transmission—they’re discovering many of them only after they’ve already spread. That’s an important threshold in any epidemic. Public health works by getting ahead of a virus. Once doctors, laboratories and contact tracers are mostly discovering infections after they happen instead of preventing the next ones, the outbreak begins dictating the pace of the response instead of the other way around. That’s why today’s WHO statement matters. It isn’t simply another update on Ebola’s growth. It’s the moment the world’s leading public-health agency publicly acknowledged that, despite expanding treatment centers and laboratories, it is losing the race. Justices Ask Cong

    Stack the Week Daily
  6. 13 Jul

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for July 13th, Monday. The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the feedback, the emails, and the steady stream of notes. Oh and the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. If you’re reading this text on a screen instead of listening to the audio, remember that this is also designed as a podcast. You can hear me read it while you’re commuting, folding laundry, or pondering what you’re going to do with all that World Cup knowledge you accumulated after next week. A brief note about Laura Doan and Annie Cohen. They have both increased the labor participation rate by finding employment in corporations larger than Dickerson Enterprises and Picayune. Congratulations to them both! Okay, let’s start. Man Made Deaths How do you count the people who die because someone dismantled the system that would have kept them alive? That’s the question Atul Gawande raises in the latest New Yorker, borrowing a concept from historian Richard Rhodes called “public man-made death.”Examples include: the child whose malnutrition treatment never comes, the woman who dies in childbirth after her clinic closes, the tuberculosis patient whose medicine disappears. Gawande cites research from Boston University and The Lancet estimating that the dismantling of USAID has already contributed to roughly 700,000 deaths, with millions more possible if the cuts persist. Those figures remain projections and are disputed by the Trump administration and Elon Musk who ran the operation that dismantled USAID. But Gawande’s larger point survives the debate over the exact number: policy decisions can kill people just as surely as wars do. Why did we lead with this? Because our sorting criteria at the moment weighs human death– no matter what nationality of human– as a key priority. Human death as a consequence of human choices also pushes it higher. Iran is Back On Imagine you’re the captain of a 1,000-foot supertanker—longer than three football fields—or a container ship stacked 20 stories high, entering one of the most dangerous waterways on Earth. You’ve switched off your AIS transponder—the electronic beacon that normally tells nearby ships, insurers, and satellites who you are and where you’re headed. That makes you harder to target, but harder for everyone else to avoid. Collision risk rises. Rescue becomes more difficult. Insurers lose the ability to monitor your voyage in real time. Oh, and you might hit a mine or be hit by a drone. That’s why only six ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the lowest daily total in five weeks. Before the war, roughly 3,000 ships crossed every month, carrying about one-fifth of the world’s oil. One of them was hit anyway. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship because it used what Iran called an unauthorized route, crippling the vessel and leaving one civilian crew member missing. Open access to the Strait of Hormuz was part of June’s ceasefire agreement. By declaring which routes are “authorized,” Iran is rewriting that agreement by force. The United States answered with a third round of strikes in a week, reportedly hitting about 140 Iranian military targets. Before February, Iran had almost no say over what moved through Hormuz. Today, it fires warning shots, dictates shipping lanes, inspects commercial traffic, and proposes charging tolls. Monday President Donald Trump declared the United States would become the “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait,” said it would charge ships a 20 percent fee for safe passage, and suggested America would effectively take responsibility for keeping the waterway open. That will take more time, money, military effort and risk, just the kind of mission-creep candidate Trump often argued had drawn previous presidents into costly, open-ended conflicts. The Financial Times reports that Dubai is planning a new port designed to reduce dependence on Hormuz altogether. They no longer see it as a passing military episode. The Washington Post reports that Israel shared intelligence with Washington, indicating that elements of Iran’s hard-line leadership want President Donald Trump dead. U.S. officials stress the intelligence reflects the views of ultra-hardliners rather than an approved assassination plot. Some officials also caution that Israel may have emphasized intelligence because it knows how President Donald Trump makes decisions: present him as the target, and he may become more receptive to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s argument that military pressure on Iran should continue. Trump dismissed the warning. “Israel came up with nothing,” he told the New York Post, while adding that he has been Iran’s “number one” target for years. Security officials worry less about an official assassination order than about a lone actor inspired by the rhetoric. A government doesn’t have to authorize an attack if one supporter decides to carry it out. A New York Times report. It says Mossad secretly recruited former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—the man who once called for Israel’s destruction—met him in Budapest, paid his expenses, hid him inside Iran after the war began, and hoped he might someday lead the country. Another ICE Death A federal immigration agent shot and killed a man during an ICE enforcement operation Monday morning in Biddeford, Maine, after authorities say he drove his vehicle toward an officer while attempting to flee. The shooting brings to at least nine the number of people who have died during the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement campaign. State and local officials from both parties, including Governor Janet Mills, Senator Susan Collins and Mayor Liam LaFountain, called for a full, transparent investigation. The agents were not wearing body cameras, leaving investigators without video evidence of the encounter. The shooting also comes as Minnesota prosecutors announced they have finally obtained evidence the Trump administration withheld for more than six months in two earlier fatal ICE-related shootings, while prosecutors in Houston say federal officials are still refusing to provide key evidence in another fatal ICE shooting last week. Lindsey Graham Fallout Just one day before he died, Senator Lindsey Graham was on the phone from Kyiv with CBS’s Margaret Brennan, celebrating what he believed was a breakthrough. After months of lobbying President Donald Trump, he had finally won White House backing for his bipartisan Russia sanctions bill. Twenty-four hours later, he was dead. He had suffered an acute aortic dissection—a tear in the inner wall of the aorta, the body’s largest artery. Blood had forced its way between the layers of the artery wall, causing them to separate. It is one of the deadliest cardiovascular emergencies in medicine. Roughly half of patients die before reaching a hospital. Doctors describe the pain as feeling “like a knife to the heart.” Graham had just returned from his tenth trip to Ukraine. His bipartisan sanctions bill would impose severe secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries—including China and India—that continue buying Russian oil. In the short term, Republicans effectively lose one vote. Until South Carolina appoints a successor and Senator Mitch McConnell returns from medical leave, Republicans have only a 51-47 majority on paper. Graham’s death also creates one more Senate race Democrats will at least examine. South Carolina remains a deeply Republican state. Donald Trump carried it by roughly 18 percentage points in 2024, Republicans hold every statewide elected office, and Republican Governor Henry McMaster has appointed Lindsey Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, as her late brother’s temporary replacement . That makes a Democratic pickup unlikely. Even so, an open seat is almost always more competitive than one held by a well-known incumbent. Republicans may have to spend money defending South Carolina. To win the Senate, Democrats must gain four Republican-held seats while holding every Democratic seat they currently control. The key Republican targets remain North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Iowa and Texas, while Democrats must also defend the open seat in Michigan. The overall judgment from six pollsters and political analysts surveyed by The New York Times was consistent: Democrats remain favored to win the House, but the Senate map still tilts toward Republicans. North Carolina appears to be Democrats’ strongest pickup opportunity. Beyond that, they would likely have to win several states Donald Trump carried comfortably. McConnell Speaks After four weeks of speculation, McConnell explained his absence: a fall at his Washington home on June 14 left him briefly unconscious and hospitalized, followed by a mild case of pneumonia. The 84-year-old, who survived childhood polio and has fallen repeatedly this year, said his doctors found no fractures, no stroke, no heart attack, no tumor. He’s moved to a rehabilitation center and isn’t cleared to return to the floor. His statement came with a photo — smiling beside his wife Elaine Chao, holding Sunday’s Washington Post sports section, a tacit answer to online rumors that he’d died. He addressed the long silence directly: “You all know how folks of my generation often hesitate to share the vulnerability that comes with growing older.” It took Kentucky’s Democratic governor publicly asking him to update the public to break it. McConnell is retiring in January, the longest-serving party leader in Senate history. Times Subpoenas When does a leak investigation become an attack on the press? That’s the question raised Friday when federal agents showed up at the homes of four New York Times reporters with subpoenas ordering them to testify before a Manhattan grand jury this Wednesday. Their reporting had revealed that President Donald Trump

    Stack the Week Daily
  7. 10 Jul

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for July 10th, Friday. The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the feedback and the reviews on Apple Podcasts. If you’re reading this instead of listening, remember this is also a podcast. You can hear me read it while you’re driving, making dinner, or trying to lessen the cognitive load at the end of the week because frankly you’re a blob of jelly and just forming words is a challenge. Here at Stack the Whatever We Call it, we have the words. Thank you to Laura Doan for helping me bolt all of this together. Iran Again off Again The repetitive rhythm of this war—attack, retaliation, ceasefire, collapse—invites a danger. Every day feels like yesterday, so we stop asking key questions. Wake me when the war’s over. This hands over our critical faculties to the people who try to confuse us. So I’m going to give you the news and then try to knock us all out of our presentism. First, the news: The U.S. hit more than 170 targets in Iran over two days. Iran answered the recent U.S. attacks with missiles and drones at bases in four countries—Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan—including Qatar, the mediator of the talks it’s still supposedly conducting. The US attack included a railway bridge —civilian infrastructure, not just military hardware. Central Command says the bridge moved weapons toward the Strait; Dana Stroul, the Pentagon’s former top Middle East official, told The New York Times the strike was a message that Iran’s bridges and railways are now targets. Problem: attacks on civilian infrastructure could constitute war crimes. The administration is trying to write around that by saying the civilian infrastructure is dual use. On the other hand, who will take the U.S. to court? In last month’s memorandum of understanding the U.S. gave Iran sanctions relief in return for its assurance that it would allow free use of the Strati of Hormuz. Iran cheated, taking the relief while trying to keep control of the Strait by forcing shippers onto an Iran-approved route and when tankers didn’t take that route Iran attacked, as it did with three commercial ships earlier this week. That’s the news. Here’s the 30,000-foot view: One of the world’s worst regimes—one that murders and suppresses its own people, funds terrorists abroad, and seeks to build the means to do both more effectively with missiles and nukes—has been significantly degraded. The costs of the degradation are: Death. A thirst for revenge implanted in an entirely new Iranian generation. Destabilization of the world economy. Further deterioration of the American public’s faith that their leaders will tell them the truth about the highest-stakes actions taken in their name. Missile stockpiles—both the interceptors that defend and the weapons that attack—have dwindled, weakening the United States and its allies against every other threat. Russian oil allowed to flow, propping up a regime that kills Ukrainians. Hardliners are in power in Tehran. Nobody in Washington can say who they’ll be negotiating with in five years. The U.S. has publicly claimed the right to hit bridges and power plants under a dual-use theory, a precedent Russia and China can now cite back at us. Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan absorbed attacks on their own soil for hosting American forces, a bill that will come due. Congress never voted—four months of war, 170 targets in two days, and the constitutional question has simply been steamrolled. The war has also consumed something harder to measure but just as finite: American attention. Attention is finite. Every hour, intelligence asset, diplomat, or Patriot battery devoted to Iran isn’t available for China, Ukraine, or the next crisis. Was it worth it? And was it worth it the way it has been done? Could it have been done no other way? The only way to come up with an honest answer is to keep the question right at the end of our nose. Making a final calculation also depends on what finally comes of diplomatic negotiations (let’s not call them peace talks or a ceasefire—those words have lost the snap in the waistband). Finally, and I know I mentioned it earlier in the week, but as the war heats up, I return to the spin from the administration and its allies: that when Donald Trump signed the June Memorandum of Understanding, it was a savvy move to quiet the war’s impact in advance of the November elections. That spin was folly at the time and today’s news reminds us why. It’s a double folly really: the happy talk of 18 dimensional electoral chess strategy echoes the original criticism of the war—that it was built on happy talk, fantastical outcomes and incapable of hard thinking about long-term and unintended consequences. Houston Shooting Update We told you Tuesday about the Houston construction worker who was fatally shot by an ICE agent during a traffic stop. The Department of Homeland Security initially said the driver had tried to run over an officer with his van, forcing the agent to fire in self-defense. The update: in reporting by The Washington Post and the Associated Press, the three men who were in the van have now given detailed, consistent accounts disputing that version, saying the van never drove toward an officer and that agents opened fire from the side of the vehicle. There is still no body-camera footage. ICE says the agents involved had not yet been issued body cameras, even though the agency has adopted a policy requiring their use where they have been deployed. ICE has not released other evidence supporting its account. Body cameras matter here because they reduce the space where competing official and eyewitness narratives can survive indefinitely. In ordinary policing, video increasingly settles factual disputes within days. Immigration enforcement still operates in many places without that evidentiary backstop, leaving the public to judge credibility instead of evidence. Several other fatal encounters involving ICE agents are also in dispute, with similar claims that victims acted aggressively toward officers. In the case of two incidents in Minneapolis, reporting later showed that video evidence contradicted key parts of ICE’s initial account. Election Assistance Commission Donald Trump fired the remaining members of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission on Friday. If your reaction was, “The what?”, you’re not alone. Congress created the commission after the disputed 2000 Bush-Gore election, not to run elections—despite the repeated efforts by president Trump that remains the responsibility of the states—but to make elections run better. The EAC tests and certifies voting machines, distributes election-security grants, maintains the national voter registration form, shares best practices with thousands of local election officials, and coordinates efforts to protect election systems from cyberattacks. The immediate practical effect may be limited. States will still run this November’s elections, and the commission has operated without a full slate of commissioners before. The larger story is what this says about the long-running fight over who gets to shape American elections. President Trump has repeatedly argued that elections need stronger safeguards against illegal voting, including requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register. Those in touch with the data and facts respond that documented cases of noncitizen voting and other forms of voter fraud are exceedingly rare. Democrats say requirements of the kind Trump is advocating risk making it harder for eligible citizens to vote. Federal courts have already blocked parts of the administration’s effort to impose document requirements through executive order, saying the Constitution largely leaves the conduct of elections to Congress and the states. This is one of the first major tests of the Supreme Court’s recent expansion of presidential authority to remove leaders of independent federal agencies. We know that Donald Trump has a history of repeated claims that elections were rigged when there is no evidence. Removing experts who could fact-check him allows his evidence-free claims to flourish in an environment where being loud and wrong is more powerful than facts or reason. Trump and Housing Bill If the Election Assistance Commission isn’t really about elections anymore, maybe it shouldn’t surprise us that the housing bill isn’t really about housing anymore either. Hours after firing the commissioners, Donald Trump refused to sign Congress’s bipartisan housing bill—not because he objected to anything in it, but because the Senate had failed to pass his SAVE America Act, which he says would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote. The housing bill will become law anyway at midnight because Trump chose neither to sign nor veto it, foregoing a chance to boast about an issue close to people’s election year concerns. So what does that mean for housing costs? Probably not much this year. The bill tries to increase housing supply over time by making it easier and cheaper to build homes, easing federal regulations, encouraging local governments to permit more construction, and limiting some large institutional purchases of single-family homes. Economists generally see it as a useful, incremental supply bill—not one that will noticeably lower your rent or mortgage in the near future. The larger point is the one we’ve been talking about all week. Increasingly, legislation isn’t judged on its own merits. It becomes leverage in a fight about something else. In this case, one of the largest bipartisan housing bills in decades has been turned by the president into something else. The thing that might help people with the necessity they care about most is overshadowed by a phantom problem that gains them nothing. Ebola In the United States or Europe, an Ebola case sets off a rapid, almost choreographed response: t

    Stack the Week Daily
  8. 9 Jul

    Stack the Week Daily Edition

    Welcome to Stack the Week for July 9th, Thursday. The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the feedback and the reviews on Apple Podcasts. If you’re reading this instead of listening, remember this is also a podcast. You can hear me read it while you’re driving, making dinner, or concluding that you really haven’t done enough to decide what your new look for summer is going to be. Thank you to Laura Doan for helping me bolt all of this together. I usually start with a big thought connecting the day’s events that I can roll at you to say I am Lazarus, come from the dead. I’m not seeing it in the entrails today. I don’t want to force one and then have one, settling a pillow by her head, say, “That is not it, at all.” So, get yourself a peach and follow along with what happened, sorted through our way. Iran is a big mess again The ceasefire stopped organizing the Iran war. Now we’re back to a more dangerous process of watching each side calculate which has more leverage and how to get more. For the last few weeks, every new development was measured against the question: Would the ceasefire hold? Now we are back to a familiar formula: Iran cannot match the United States bomb for bomb. It doesn’t have to. It has its hand around the throat of something the rest of the world cannot afford to lose: the Strait of Hormuz. I won’t bore you with the shipping math. The world needs what moves through that narrow stretch of water. And Iran doesn’t have to close the strait to use it. It only has to make ship captains, insurers, energy traders, and presidents nervous. That’s why the June memorandum of understanding–—the ceasefire that lifted the American naval blockade, and reopened the Strait— mattered more than it first appeared. It wasn’t simply an agreement. It was an acknowledgment that the Strait itself had become one of the central prizes in the conflict. And as acute listeners will know, it was not a prize before the conflict because it was not an issue of contention. Even as the formal truce collapsed into open conflict, high-level mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, and Egypt kept lines of communication open around the clock. The war and the negotiations are no longer alternating; they are happening simultaneously. The problem was not that Washington failed to imagine Iran’s leverage. The problem was that it acted as if American military superiority could make that leverage irrelevant. That’s a big mistake and a big one for Donald Trump who presents himself as having a killer instinct that understands all possibilities. So now that President Trump has declared the ceasefire over, what are the choices now? The United States can try to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping, do the slow, hard work of reopening the Strait, and rob Iran of its leverage. Or it can escalate the bombing in the hope of forcing the regime to yield. The Iranian regime can continue asking its people to absorb the pain while betting it can disrupt the Strait long enough for pressure from the world economy—and perhaps from the approaching November election—to produce better terms. Ukraine’s Strategic Shift The lesson of the Iran war—if we can’t beat your army, we’ll attack the system that keeps it fighting—is playing out in Ukraine too. Ukraine is going after the machinery that lets Russia keep fighting: oil depots, refineries, fuel terminals, tankers, rail links, and the supply lines that keep Crimea and the front fed. On Thursday, Ukrainian drones hit more Russian oil facilities and set two oil tankers ablaze in the Sea of Azov. Fires broke out at oil sites prompting evacuations, while one tanker continued burning after its crew fled. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls the campaign “long-range sanctions.” If sanctions are supposed to squeeze the revenue and supply lines that sustain war, Ukraine is now trying to do with drones what Western governments have tried to do with finance. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and fuel infrastructure have helped trigger gasoline shortages, rationing, and long lines in multiple Russian regions. Foreign Policy reports that Ukraine has hit Russian oil refineries 194 times this year—11 times as often as during the same period last year—and that more than half of Russia’s regions have reported fuel shortages, rationing, or restrictions on civilian sales. This is the change in the war. Ukraine is no longer only trying to stop Russian advances at the front. It is trying to make the front harder for Russia to supply. I don’t know what to do with this exactly, but for years, Ukraine’s allies worried that striking inside Russia would escalate the war. How worried should we be about escalation now? The lesson isn’t being lost on the rest of NATO. On Thursday, at a NATO summit, Germany announced it will buy American Tomahawk cruise missiles, giving it—for the first time since the Cold War—a ground-based weapon capable of striking targets more than 1,000 miles away. Since NATO was created to counter the Russian threat, those 1,000 miles might be measured straight into Russia. European allies also pledged billions of dollars to develop their own long-range strike systems. Europe is drawing the same lesson Ukraine has learned by necessity: in modern war, holding an enemy’s logistics, industry and infrastructure at risk may matter as much as defeating its armies at the front. President Trump said Wednesday that the United States would give Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot air-defense systems. A license is not a shield over Kyiv: A top Ukrainian official warned that it could take a year or more to produce Patriot interceptor missiles. Fire in the Land of Shoes China’s shoe capital became the site of one of the country’s deadliest industrial accidents in years Thursday. A fire tore through the Huiteng shoe factory in China’s Fujian Province, killing 28 people. More than 200 workers escaped or were rescued, but many were trapped as flames spread through the multi-story building. The fire broke out in Jinjiang, a city whose factories produced more than 1.2 billion pairs of shoes last year—roughly one out of every five pairs made anywhere in the world. Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered what state media called an “all-out” rescue effort and demanded that those responsible be held accountable. Authorities arrested the factory owner and other managers, froze the company’s assets, and opened an investigation into what caused the fire. Preliminary findings suggest the blaze started on the building’s ground floor. Officials said materials such as rubber soles, adhesives, and chemical solvents used in shoe production helped it spread rapidly, while firefighters told state television that large quantities of stored materials had been piled into stairwells, slowing both evacuations and rescue efforts. The speed of the government’s response reflects a familiar pattern in China. Major industrial accidents often produce an immediate promise of accountability, arrests of local managers, and a national investigation. The harder question usually comes later: whether the findings lead to broader changes in workplace safety or simply identify people to blame. Perhaps not the Time for a Fruit Habit Food has become remarkably good at traveling across America. Unfortunately, so have the things that sometimes come with it. Health officials are investigating one of the country’s largest cyclospora outbreaks in years after nearly 1,000 people in Michigan and hundreds more in neighboring Ohio became sick with a parasite that causes severe diarrhea. More than 40 people have been hospitalized, but no one has died. Officials still don’t know what food caused the outbreak. Cyclospora exposes a weakness in the modern food system. By the time people become sick—sometimes two weeks after eating contaminated food—the lettuce, basil, cilantro, berries or other produce that carried the parasite has long since been harvested, shipped, sold and eaten. One contaminated ingredient may have passed through multiple distributors into grocery stores and restaurants across dozens of states before investigators even know an outbreak exists. Tracing the source is unusually difficult. The parasite cannot be grown in a laboratory, many routine tests don’t look for it, and investigators often discover that the only thing hundreds of patients shared was a single ingredient hidden inside dozens of different meals. Sometimes they never find the source. The defenses are modest: Wash produce, though washing may not remove this parasite. Peel what you can. Skip pre-cut produce during an outbreak. And if diarrhea lingers after a meal of fresh produce, tell your doctor what you ate. Sometimes the most important clue isn’t in a lab result—it’s in your last meal. Participation Puzzler The unemployment rate tells you how many people are looking for work and can’t find it. The labor-force participation rate tells you something different: How many Americans are even in the game? It measures the share of adults who either have a job or are actively trying to get one. Stop looking, and you disappear from both the labor force and the unemployment rate. Your family, however, will still expect you at dinner. That’s why economists watch it so closely. A falling unemployment rate usually signals a healthy economy. A falling participation rate can mean people aren’t finding work, can’t work, or no longer think work is worth pursuing. USA Today highlighted just how dramatic that shift has become. In June, roughly 720,000 Americans left the labor force, pushing the participation rate down to 61.5 percent. Outside the pandemic, that’s the lowest level in nearly half a century. Why are they leaving? No one agrees. Some are retiring as America ages. Some have left work to care for children or aging parents. Some are living with chronic illness or dis

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Stack the Week is a weekly review of the news — what mattered, what's coming, and why it all connects. With occasional acts of wonder. John Dickerson reads the week, ranks it, and accounts for it. www.johndickerson.com

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