Stack the Week

John Dickerson

Stack the Week is a weekly review of the news — what mattered, what's coming, and why it all connects. With occasional acts of wonder. John Dickerson reads the week, ranks it, and accounts for it. www.johndickerson.com

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    Welcome to Stack the Week for Friday, July 23 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, notes and Apple podcast reviews which spread the word about how this product can also be listened to as you pass the time cleaning your gutters, updating your terms of service or engaging in musketry before the setting sun. Okay, let’s start. More Is Creating More Iran’s retaliation is spreading across the American military network in the Middle East. Explosive drones targeted Irbil in northern Iraq, where U.S. troops are based. Sirens sounded in Bahrain, the location of the 5th fleet. Iran also claimed attacks against American facilities in Jordan. The United States does not project power into the region from one enormous base. It relies on a distributed network of airfields, ports, command centers and partnerships. That allows American forces to operate close to a crisis, detect threats earlier and respond without first moving an entire military presence into position. The network gives the United States reach. It also gives an adversary a lot of targets. The United States completed its thirteenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran. The emerging cycle is easy to see: The United States strikes Iran. Iran attacks American facilities around the region. Sun Tzu described the underlying problem more than two thousand years ago: “If he sends reinforcements everywhere, he will everywhere be weak.” CBS reported yesterday that the Pentagon has begun moving interceptors into the Middle East from stockpiles previously positioned for the Indo-Pacific. That is especially revealing: The Iran war is not simply consuming ammunition; it is changing what is available for deterring China. The New York Times reports that the Pentagon reduced its public death toll from 18 to 14 by removing four soldiers killed in Jordan and Iraq after President Trump declared a cease-fire—even though the military’s own releases described their deaths as related to Iranian aggression. This is reminiscent of the Covid period when President Trump said he didn’t want to test for new cases because it would make the numbers look bad. Yesterday’s news was that the Houthis had opened another front in the Red Sea. Reuters today has the receipts connecting the rebels with their benefactors, reporting that Tehran sent Revolutionary Guard commanders and missile equipment to the Houthis in Yemen. Iran rejected the latest American cease-fire proposal. No functioning diplomatic process is evident. No mechanism for pausing the attacks, resolving disputed incidents or preventing one retaliation from producing the next. Also, thirteen nights into this latest round, nobody has said what winning is. Until the leadership quits, until the nuclear program is gone, until the government falls. Which one is being fought? Some final questions: Can a bombing campaign intended to make Iran’s leaders cry uncle succeed against a government with such a high tolerance for suffering—particularly when much of that suffering is borne by its people? Has the war become a contest of pain thresholds: how much destruction Iran’s leaders are willing to absorb, versus how much political and economic damage President Trump is willing to endure? And what has restrained Trump from ordering the “massive attack” he keeps threatening? If he believes such an attack would be decisive, the costs holding him back must be substantial—perhaps further damage to the world economy, perhaps a larger Iranian retaliation, perhaps something else we cannot yet see. Knowing what that constraint is would help everyone judge how seriously to take his next threat, or how worried we should all be for the retaliation if he makes good on that threat. Battling Production Lines During the war’s first year, Ukrainian drone incursions into Russia were isolated events, usually involving one or two aircraft. By summer 2023, nearly 200 suspected attacks over eight months represented a major escalation. Now, Russia says it intercepted 571 Ukrainian drones in a single night. Ukraine said its weapons struck an oil facility roughly 1,350 kilometers from the border and a factory producing aircraft and missile components. Russian officials said the factory attack killed six people and wounded 26. Near Kyiv, a Russian ballistic missile struck a military training site hosting defense-industry representatives, killing at least 10 people and wounding nearly 100. Russia is exploiting Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot interceptors by launching ballistic missiles that travel at several times the speed of sound and are difficult for other systems to stop. In one major July attack, Ukraine said it intercepted none of 29 ballistic missiles. The war is increasingly a contest of industrial capacity: Ukrainian drone production against Russian missile stockpiles, and against Ukraine’s supply of the interceptors that stop them. Which is where this connects to the war above it. The interceptors the Pentagon is moving toward the Gulf and the interceptors Ukraine cannot get are the same interceptors, off the same small number of production lines, running at roughly 600 a year now, with plans to reach about 2,000 a year by 2030, against a backlog measured in years. One line is being asked to underwrite three deterrents — Kyiv’s, the Gulf’s, and the one that was sitting in the Pacific for Taiwan. Wait, Did We do That? The Trump administration has admitted that it canceled hundreds of clean-energy grants because of how the affected states voted. This is not merely a dispute over climate policy or government spending. It is evidence that the federal purse was used to punish political opponents. In October 2025, the Energy Department announced the termination of $7.56 billion in awards, claiming an individualized review found the projects economically unsound. But filings in Thakur v. Trump tell a different story. The class-action lawsuit was brought by University of California researchers who alleged that federal agencies canceled grants for politically disfavored reasons rather than poor performance or violations of grant terms. The government’s admission substantially validates that central allegation. Officials acknowledged terminating 283 grants in states won by Kamala Harris while sparing 340 grants recommended for cancellation in states won by Donald Trump. The selection was based solely on the states’ political identity—not cost, performance, statutory requirements or project merits. The canceled awards supported electrical-grid upgrades, methane-leak reduction, manufacturing and hydrogen production. In related litigation, Judge Amit Mehta ruled that selectively canceling comparable grants in Democratic states violated the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection. His order restored only the grants held by the plaintiffs before him, however. It did not resolve every cancellation in Thakur. Congress, not the president, holds the constitutional power of the purse. Treating awarded public funds as presidential patronage—money for friendly states, cancellation for hostile ones—undermines congressional authority and equal government under law. If that seems like jargon, what I’m describing is the American system that we celebrated this year at its two hundred and fiftieth anniversary. The admission also contradicts Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s congressional assurance that politics played no role. (If the majority in Congress were jealous guardians of their power, they might be upset about this.) By the way, if you’re gauging how the various branches of government are doing, note how the admission surfaced. In the judicial branch– because someone sued. During the Trump years it has been the only branch to seek to maintain standards. If future presidents can redirect appropriated money according to electoral support, what remains of the power of the purse? The question is not confined to grants. Elsewhere in today’s issue: a tax on nearly every import in the country, imposed without a vote, and a thirteen-night bombing campaign, prosecuted without one. Three of the day’s largest stories involve powers the Constitution assigns to Congress being exercised by the president, and in none of them is Congress audibly objecting. This is a particularly stark abdication in an election year where voters are supposed to evaluate the work being done in their name and either affirm or punish the lawmakers responsible for it. But a member who does not vote on a war never has to defend a war. A member who does not vote on a tariff never has to explain a price. The Republican leaders in Congress are behaving as if their authority is also a liability. Tariffs, now more than ever. President Trump has found a tariff workaround. He’s now rebuilt most of the tariff wall the Supreme Court knocked down in February. Trump first imposed sweeping tariffs in April 2025 under a law granting presidents emergency economic powers. The Supreme Court ruled that the law did not authorize tariffs. The administration responded with a temporary measure that kept most in place. They have now found a permanent one under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. That statute permits retaliation against foreign practices that burden American commerce. The alleged offense is that the targeted countries are using forced labor. American officials say the targeted economies fail to block goods made under coercion from entering their markets, allowing abusive producers to directly undercut American workers. Supporters say market access should require trading partners to enforce comparable labor standards. But the remedy is not a ban on proven forced-labor goods. It is a tax on lawful imports. Imports from 60 economies—representing 99.4 percent of everything the United States buys abroad—now face duties of 10 or 12.5 percent. Because the European Union is counted as one economy, the policy reaches more than

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    Welcome to Stack the Week for Thursday, July 23 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, notes and Apple podcast reviews which spread the word about how this product can also be listened to as you negotiate a durable peace, update your look for fall or simply look for a way to free and extend your emotional life. Okay, let’s start. The Other Exit Is Closing Brent crude, the international benchmark price for oil, crossed $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since May. It had traded near $71 earlier in July, when investors still hoped a temporary understanding between the United States and Iran might hold. Part of the spike reflects Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening the route Saudi Arabia has relied on to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia built its East-West Pipeline during the Iran-Iraq War for exactly this danger. The pipeline does not replace Hormuz, but it gives the kingdom a way to preserve millions of barrels of exports when the eastern route becomes unusable. Once that oil reaches reaches the end of the pipe, much of it still has to pass through the 18 miles between Yemen and the Horn of Africa at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. If that passage becomes too dangerous because of Houthi attacks or threats of same, tankers must sail the long way around Africa. That detour can add several weeks to a voyage and ties up the same tanker for longer, reducing the number of ships available to carry everyone else’s oil. The Houthi attacks also complicate President Trump’s announced formula for retaliation. He has said the United States will destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant whenever Iran attacks a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. But the Houthis attacked from Yemen, not Iran. They receive weapons and support from Tehran, but that does not establish that Iranian officials selected these particular tankers or ordered these particular launches. So do the Iranian people get punished anyway? The war now threatens both doors through which Gulf oil reaches the world. The Strait of Hormuz was the front entrance. The Red Sea was the fire exit. The fire exit is now under fire, too. Also of note on the Iran front: The New York Times has a fact check. The administration has claimed that the Iranian missile capability is caput. But the Times found visible damage at nine American military and intelligence sites across the region from recent Iranian attacks, suggesting Iran retains a more capable missile force than some public statements have implied. At the same time, The Wall Street Journal reports the United States is moving additional forces, medical units and weapons into the region after a twelfth consecutive night of strikes to give president Trump more options if he wants to escalate. They Died Where They Were Sent to Recover On March 16, Pakistani aircraft bombed a sprawling compound in Kabul known as the Omid Rehabilitation and Treatment Centre during Pakistan’s campaign against militants it says operate from Afghanistan. The Taliban has made drug addiction a national priority. Afghanistan has one of the world’s highest rates of opioid addiction, fueled in part by decades as the world’s largest producer of opium. Taliban authorities have repeatedly rounded up people addicted to drugs and sent many of them into compulsory rehabilitation centers like Omid. The strike killed at least 269 civilians and wounded at least 122, according to figures independently verified by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. Amnesty International has now called for the bombing to be investigated as a possible war crime. Pakistan said the compound contained technical-support facilities, weapons and ammunition used by militants attacking Pakistan. Amnesty reviewed dozens of photos and videos, satellite images, interviews with witnesses and workers, and bomb fragments from the site. Weapons experts concluded that at least one munition was a Pakistani-made Takbir precision-guided bomb, evidence that the facility had been deliberately selected rather than struck accidentally. Under the rules of war, armies may attack military objectives, but must distinguish them from civilians, homes, hospitals and other civilian facilities. Medical facilities receive special protection. Even if Pakistan possessed reliable evidence that militants had stored weapons somewhere in the compound—something Amnesty says it found no evidence to support—commanders still had to consider the people living around those weapons. The principle of proportionality prohibits an attack when the expected civilian harm would be excessive in relation to the concrete military advantage anticipated. The principle of precaution requires commanders to do everything feasible to verify the target, select weapons and timing that reduce civilian deaths, and warn people when circumstances permit. Amnesty cannot prosecute; its report is evidence, not a verdict. A war-crimes case would require an independent investigation, something Pakistan rejects. Still, the report preserves evidence while witnesses and documents remain, which matters because such cases often begin years later. 23 Million Frozen in Place Health insurance is trapping nearly one in four U.S. workers in jobs they want to leave. New West Health–Gallup research estimates that 24 percent—about 23 million adults—remain because they fear losing employer-sponsored coverage, up eight percentage points since 2021. The burden is especially acute among women, workers with chronic conditions and people facing medical debt. The consequences of this “job lock” extend beyond unhappy jobs. Workers pass up promotions, delay starting businesses, postpone retirement or stay in positions they no longer want because a gap in health coverage could expose them or their families to catastrophic medical bills. Across the economy, that reduces job mobility, slows new business formation and makes wages less responsive to competition. A Fine That Cannot Be Paid The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is using another tool to pressure undocumented immigrants to leave the country: enormous daily civil fines. The Department of Homeland Security has sent more than 100,000 people letters saying they owe the federal government $998 for every day they remained in the United States after an immigration judge issued a final order requiring them to leave. One week costs $6,986. Thirty days cost $29,940. One year produces a bill of $364,270. A final removal order means an immigration judge has concluded that a person may be expelled from the United States. It does not necessarily mean the person can leave immediately. Practical, legal or humanitarian barriers may prevent departure. For example, a person’s home country may refuse to issue the travel documents needed for deportation, or a court may temporarily block removal while an asylum or other legal claim is resolved. The administration presents the fines as part of its campaign to encourage what it calls “self-deportation.” Yesterday we discussed The Washington Post’s reporting on overcrowded detention facilities. Last week we looked at how the drive to increase deportation numbers led to lower hiring standards and more reported use-of-force incidents. Those were about detention and arrests. This is about financial pressure. Taken together, they describe an immigration system expanding its enforcement tools faster than the institutions meant to support and oversee them and the humans at the end of these policies. One Referral for a National Force In a related story, House Homeland Security Democrats said an ICE briefing showed that the agency has received 56 excessive-force complaints since President Trump returned to office. Thirty-two have been closed. One officer has been referred for possible discipline, and no discipline has yet been imposed. Most of the remaining cases are still under investigation. At least 10 people have died in encounters with immigration agents since the crackdown began including Renée Good and Alex Pretti, the subject of a special report yesterday on CNN by Jake Tappe and the two immigrants shot and killed by ICE officers during attempted arrests in Maine and Houston within the span of a week. The Nuclear Exception Is Now an Agreement Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed an agreement establishing the legal framework allowing the United States and Saudi Arabia to cooperate on civilian nuclear power. Without such an agreement, American companies generally cannot sell Saudi Arabia nuclear reactors, major reactor components, fuel or other sensitive nuclear technology. Saudi Arabia wants nuclear reactors partly so it can generate electricity without burning as much oil at home, leaving more petroleum available for export. The United States wants American reactor builders and fuel companies—not Russian or Chinese competitors—to win the work. The pact creates an opening for contracts worth billions of dollars. President Trump’s family also has significant financial ties to Saudi Arabia. Since leaving the White House, Jared Kushner’s investment firm, Affinity Partners, has received a $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and has pursued additional business in the kingdom. So President Trump’s son-in-law has a very strong financial interest in seeing the world the way the Saudi government sees it. President Trump is the man who approved the agreement. Successive Israeli governments have opposed the spread of uranium-enrichment capability elsewhere in the Middle East, arguing that civilian enrichment shortens the technological distance to a potential weapons program which takes advantage of the same expertise and technology. Under the terms of the agreement, Saudi Arabia cannot enrich uranium supplied directly under the American agreement but might retain a

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    Welcome to Stack the Week for July 22, 2026. The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the notes. And the Apple podcast reviews help keep us from hiding under a bushel. (They introduce us to a wider audience.) Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you sail through Copenhagen, reorder your holy cards or plan your ascent, vaulting on the bones of your enemies. So here we go: 1. One Bridge at a Time Did you ever play sandlot football as a kid? The quarterback would call everyone into a huddle, then draw the play on his chest with his finger. “Joey, you go left at the fire hydrant. Billy, you go long toward Mrs. Mcgillicuddy’s house.” Watching the administration’s rapidly evolving strategy for the Iran war Wednesday feels a little like that. The play keeps getting redrawn in public as the war unfolds. President Trump announced that every time Iran attacks a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will destroy one Iranian bridge or power plant. Some of the targets he identified lie near Tehran. That moves the threatened retaliation closer to Iran’s largest population center and appears intended to make ordinary Iranians—and therefore their leaders—feel a greater price for attacks in the strait. It would also put civilians at risk when electricity, transportation, water and medical systems depend on the infrastructure being struck. The announcement raises immediate practical questions. What happens if a proxy group acts on its own, a local commander ignores orders or American intelligence gets it wrong? Under the president’s formula, any of those events could lead to the destruction of infrastructure that millions of civilians depend on. On the other hand, if there is an attack and the president does not respond as promised, he suffers a loss of credibility. The policy could also give Iran additional leverage. Tehran already has the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If every attack automatically triggers a larger American response, Iran—or groups acting in its name—would gain more influence over the pace of escalation. Is this a standing policy or a negotiating tactic? International law prohibits deliberately attacking civilian objects unless they have become military objectives, and any attack must avoid disproportionate civilian harm. If bridges and power plants are now legitimate targets, what prevents Iran from broadening its own target list? And how does this policy reopen the Strait of Hormuz? 2. The cost of France’s heat wave. Extreme heat can sound like an inconvenience: uncomfortable sleep, crowded beaches, another photograph of children running through a fountain. It can also be deadly. During the heat wave from June 17 to July 2, the affected parts of France recorded 21,674 deaths. Based on previous years, public-health officials would ordinarily have expected 15,910. The difference—5,764 people—is what epidemiologists call “excess deaths”: people who probably would not have died during those weeks under normal conditions. That does not mean every death certificate will say “heat.” Extreme temperatures can cause dehydration or heatstroke. They can also place additional stress on the heart, lungs and kidneys. An older person with heart disease may die of a heart attack brought on by the heat, but the certificate may record only the heart attack. France recorded 36 percent more deaths than expected during the heat wave—the country’s highest excess mortality during a heat wave since 2003. Funeral directors struggled to find room for the bodies. Some mortuaries filled and began turning them away. About one-third of the people who died across the affected regions died at home. About two-thirds of the excess deaths were among people 75 or older. 3. Saudi Arabia Gets What Iran Can’t Have Saudi Arabia wants nuclear power. It also wants permission to make the fuel itself. The Trump administration may let it. President Trump has now approved a proposed 30-year civil-nuclear agreement with the kingdom, according to officials familiar with the negotiations. It has not yet been signed, published or reviewed by Congress. Nuclear reactors use uranium as fuel. Before uranium can go into a reactor, centrifuges enrich it. At low levels, enriched uranium can produce electricity. At much higher levels, it can help produce a nuclear bomb. Getting from one to the other is not simple, but the same machines and much of the same knowledge are involved. A country that can enrich uranium for a reactor is closer to making bomb material than a country that has to buy its fuel from someone else. The United States and Israel have justified the war in large part as an attempt to keep Iran from turning its uranium-enrichment program into a nuclear weapon. Now Washington may allow another country in the same region to acquire the underlying technology. When the United Arab Emirates signed a nuclear agreement with Washington in 2009, it promised never to enrich uranium or reprocess used reactor fuel at home. Instead of banning Saudi enrichment, the agreement would reportedly create a two-year American-Saudi study of whether an enrichment plant should be built inside the kingdom. No plant has been approved. But the United States would be moving from “Saudi Arabia cannot have this” to “let’s decide under what conditions Saudi Arabia can have this.” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Norah O’Donnell in a 2018 interview broadcast on *60 Minutes* that Saudi Arabia did not want a nuclear bomb. Then he named the exception: “If Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.” Iran will notice the unequal treatment. Washington is trying to eliminate or sharply restrict Iran’s enrichment program while considering domestic enrichment for Iran’s principal regional rival. That gives Tehran another reason to resist American demands at the negotiating table: Iranian officials can ask why enrichment is unacceptable in Iran but potentially manageable in Saudi Arabia. The Associated Press reports that the agreement is not expected to require the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol—the stronger inspection system that gives international monitors more information and access, including tools for looking for nuclear work a country has not declared. Why accept that risk? Saudi Arabia has refused to renounce enrichment, and Washington wants American companies—not Russian or Chinese companies—to build a nuclear industry worth tens of billions of dollars. The administration also wants to preserve a strategic relationship strained by the Iran war. Earlier American negotiations treated nuclear cooperation as part of a larger bargain in which Saudi Arabia would establish relations with Israel. The agreement reportedly does not require Saudi recognition of Israel. Israeli officials and security experts have reacted with alarm. A Saudi enrichment program could begin a regional competition in which Turkey and Egypt demand the same capability. It could also leave Israel facing two regional rivals with the industrial foundation for producing weapons material. 4. ICE Kept Filling Unsafe Rooms “Covid man.” “A guy with monkeypox.” “Cardiac lady.” Those were the names ICE officials used in text messages while deciding which sick people most urgently needed the limited medical care available inside a dangerously overcrowded Manhattan holding facility, according to an exhaustively reported Washington Post piece. An ICE holding room is supposed to be a place where someone waits for a few hours after being arrested. The rooms have no beds or showers, and generally no full-time medical staff, because nobody is supposed to live in them. At 26 Federal Plaza in Manhattan, people lived in them anyway. One room was approximately 30 feet by 30 feet, with a hard floor, concrete benches and three toilets. It ordinarily held a handful of people. Last summer, ICE packed as many as 86 inside. At the worst point, each person had approximately ten square feet—the floor space of an old-fashioned telephone booth. These conditions were not separate from the administration’s deportation policy. They were one of its results. President Trump promised to remove the “worst of the worst.” But the administration also ordered ICE to make thousands of arrests a day. At 26 Federal Plaza, agents began arresting people immediately after their immigration-court hearings. Internal government data covering Trump’s first year found that fewer than 14 percent of ICE arrestees had been charged with or convicted of violent offenses; 42 percent had no previous criminal charge or conviction. Those being held, according to the Post reporting, went days without showers. The room smelled of sweat, urine and feces. More than 60 people were held in the building for over a week, although the government’s original limit was 12 hours. The facility accepted people with heart disease, diabetes, kidney failure, tuberculosis, dementia and other serious conditions. There was no doctor on site; one detainee was taken to a hospital with breathing problems. Officials repeatedly warned one another. “This is insane,” an assistant field-office director wrote in June. The Washington Post identified 177 facilities nationwide that ICE classifies as temporary holding rooms. Since last August, eight other facilities have held more than 200 people at once. In Mesa, Arizona, ICE placed more than 700 people in a facility with a stated maximum capacity of 203. The Department of Homeland Security says temporary rooms are necessary because it lacks sufficient detention space to carry out the president’s order. DHS’s defense amounts to: We were ordered to arrest at this pace, and we had nowhere to put people. That is an honest math problem. It is also a choice—holding the arrest rate fixed while capacity

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    The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the notes. And the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you sand down that one drawer that never closes, deadhead the roses or re-caulk the tub. So here we go: The Strait Stayed Closed Ten weeks ago, The New York Times’ David Sanger asked President Trump what would be gained by increasing the bombing when the previous 38 days had failed to produce “the political changes in Iran” Washington wanted. The president suggested the question was “treasonous.” Ten weeks later, there is an answer. The United States reported striking more than 13,000 targets during the war’s first 38 days, and the stepped-up campaign has added hundreds more strikes. Since the latest cease-fire collapsed, the United States has bombed Iran every night. Yet Iran still threatened commercial shipping. A tanker came under attack Tuesday and normal commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely stalled. Ten days of an intensified campaign hasn’t changed Iran’s behavior. And threats to send it to its room without any dinner aren’t doing much better. President Trump banged the gong harder, announcing an attack near Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground complex associated with one of Iran’s principal nuclear-enrichment sites. Iran doesn’t have to defeat the United States militarily. It only has to keep the Strait dangerous while other pressures accumulate. Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan all showed that casualties, costs and domestic politics can become as decisive as the battlefield. Some of those pressures surfaced Tuesday. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators On the appropriations committee the war has cost $37.5 billion and warned of “critical shortfalls” without more funding. When senators pressed military leaders about reopening Hormuz, they received no clear answer. “Guys, we need straight answers,” Republican Sen. John Kennedy said. Oil traded above $90 a barrel. A July poll found that 59 percent of Americans had already cut back or delayed spending because of higher gasoline prices. Houthi warnings reportedly caused six ships to change course, threatening the Red Sea route Saudi Arabia has used to bypass Hormuz. A stepped-up campaign intended to reopen one strategic waterway now risks destabilizing another. Ten weeks ago, David Sanger asked why more bombing would produce a different outcome than the bombing that came before it. Perhaps if the question hadn’t been dismissed as “treasonous,” the strategy would have been subjected to the scrutiny it deserved. Canadian Trade Tariff Imagine you’re running Ford—or any company that builds products in North America. You don’t decide where to build a factory based on next month’s politics. You decide based on the next twenty years. When President Trump negotiated and signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement during his first term, companies reorganized supply chains around those rules. A car might cross the U.S.-Canadian border several times before reaching a dealer. Companies invested billions of dollars assuming those tariff rules would remain in place. On Monday, President Trump showed those assumptions no longer apply. He imposed a new 50 percent tariff on specified Canadian imports under three proclamations addressing disputes over motor vehicles, alcohol and dairy. The covered goods range from wine and hockey sticks to cement. The new duties take effect August 19. The administration argues Canada unfairly protects industries such as dairy and alcoholic beverages. And who among us doesn’t enjoy a little dairy in their alcoholic beverages? Canada says the new tariffs violate the trade agreement. Instead of withdrawing from the agreement, Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a law allowing tariffs against countries found to discriminate against American commerce. It is the first time the United States has actually imposed tariffs under that law. The move also attempts to avoid the legal problem that doomed Trump’s earlier tariffs. Rather than relying on emergency powers the Supreme Court ruled did not authorize tariffs, the administration turned to a different law that expressly allows them. Part of a larger pattern: a president responding to an adverse ruling by finding another delegation of power and testing its outer boundary. The first people paying these tariffs are American importers when Canadian goods cross the border. Those companies then decide whether to absorb the cost, negotiate lower prices from Canadian suppliers, cancel orders or pass the increase to customers. For consumers, the result is straightforward: some Canadian products will cost more, some may disappear from store shelves, and American-made products that rely on Canadian parts may become more expensive as well. The winners and losers won’t divide neatly by nationality. American companies competing against Canadian imports may benefit. American companies that rely on Canadian parts may pay more. Consumers could end up paying higher prices either way. The Billion-Dollar Medicaid Hold The Trump administration has frozen more than $1 billion in federal Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota, accusing both states of failing to document claims that federal officials say “smell like fraud.” That is the phrase Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz used while announcing the action. The money can be released, officials say, once the states prove the questioned services were legitimate. The administration describes this as a pause, not a cut. California’s dispute centers largely on in-home care for seniors and people with disabilities. Spending on those services has risen 24 percent in two years—twice the growth rate elsewhere, according to Oz. California Medicaid Director Tyler Sadwith offers a different explanation: the state deliberately expanded home-based care because treating people at home costs less than placing them in nursing homes. Minnesota’s deferral covers 14 categories considered especially vulnerable to fraud, many involving personal and in-home care. Home-care programs have documented fraud vulnerabilities. Services are scattered among thousands of providers, difficult to monitor and historically attractive to fraudsters. The dispute is not whether fraud exists. It is whether the administration has shown enough evidence to justify freezing more than $1 billion before completing its investigation. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Oz cite unusual billing patterns, eligibility questions and missing documentation. But, as Reuters reported, they have not publicly documented how much of the withheld money is tied to proven fraudulent claims. The order places the evidentiary burden on the states before the money is released. This approach may prevent federal dollars from reaching criminals and encourage states to scrutinize claims more aggressively. It may also delay payments to legitimate providers while officials argue over documentation. Governors Gavin Newsom and Tim Walz call the freezes political retaliation against Democratic states. Administration officials deny targeting political opponents and note that Florida has also received a request for program-integrity information. Yet California and Minnesota remain the only states subjected to publicly announced payment deferrals. The General After the Minister Last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky fired Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after siding with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi in a dispute over how Ukraine should fight the war. Fedorov had become the public face of Ukraine’s military modernization, pushing drones, digital systems, procurement reform and more authority for frontline commanders. Many Ukrainians saw him as one of the government’s most effective wartime leaders. Instead of ending the dispute, the dismissal ignited the largest street protests since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Demonstrators demanded not only Fedorov’s return but increasingly turned their anger toward Syrskyi, whom many blamed for resisting the reforms Fedorov championed. On Tuesday, Zelensky fired Syrskyi too. Zelensky did not say he was responding to the protests. Publicly, he presented the change as part of strengthening Ukraine’s war effort. But the timing is difficult to ignore. Days after the biggest wartime demonstrations of his presidency, Zelensky removed the commander he had defended only a week earlier. Whether or not the protests caused the dismissal, they showed that wartime democracy in Ukraine remains something more than symbolic. Public pressure appears capable of changing the political calculation. The next commander inherits the same unanswered questions: how quickly to reorganize around drones, how much authority to push to frontline units, how to recruit and rotate exhausted troops, and how to balance rapid innovation with the discipline needed to command an army at war. The Food Stamp Time Tax Congress recently changed the rules for food assistance in a way that also changed the incentives for states. Under the new law, if a state approves benefits for someone who later turns out not to qualify, the state—not just the federal government—can end up paying part of the bill. That creates a difficult incentive. A mistaken approval can cost the state money. States therefore have a financial reason to demand more documentation and close questionable cases quickly. That can reduce improper payments, but it can also remove eligible families whose paperwork is incomplete or whose cases cannot be reconciled by an automated system. Food banks and charities pick up the slack. Annie Lowrey of The Atlantic has written about what she calls the “Time Tax”—the hours people spend completing paperwork, waiting on

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    Welcome to Stack the Week for Monday, July 20 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the notes. And those Apple podcast reviews help introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you polish your door knocker, trim back the basil or try to put the screen door back on the track. So here we go, with what mattered today: Seventeen, and Twenty Ships The Pentagon on Monday identified First Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, as the latest Americans killed in the war with Iran. Both were killed in an Iranian attack on a U.S. air base in Jordan. The U.S. military death toll in the Iran war now stands at 17. That number includes a service member who was killed in Iraq while conducting a “controlled detonation” of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian one-way attack drone. Approximately 430 American personnel have been injured in the war, according to Reuters. The Pentagon is no longer regularly publishing a cumulative wounded count and has also withheld details about earlier attacks in Jordan that reportedly injured dozens and damaged helicopters. The Pentagon is also no longer regularly publishing the number of Iranian sites struck each day. Its last major public briefing on the war was in early May. The Pentagon provided frequent, televised briefings during the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, despite limited independent battlefield access. Operational security may explain some of the current silence, but it also makes it harder to measure losses against a clearly articulated objective. With fewer official details, it becomes harder for the public and their elected representatives to evaluate the human and financial costs of the war. Recent polling finds most Americans now say the Iran war was a mistake and want it ended as soon as possible, with opposition to continued strikes running well ahead of support. U.S. strikes are headed into their consecutive 9th day. “We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” a U.S. official told The Washington Post, as dwindling air-defense and long-range munitions and battle damage constrained plans for a wider Iran war. Here’s the Hormuz count. Roughly 130 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day before the war. Just 20 passed over the weekend; 18 used the corridor mandated by Iran. Last week there was a debate about who controlled the strait. The behavior of the ships suggests that the limited number of vessels still making the passage are largely following Iran’s rules. Yemen’s Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, specifically threatening Saudi shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to the Associated Press. Saudi Arabia has been using its East–West Pipeline to send oil to the Red Sea and bypass Hormuz; threats near the Red Sea’s southern gateway therefore place additional pressure on the kingdom’s principal workaround. AAA listed the national average for regular gasoline over $4. Gas rose to $4.50 in May and fell below $4 in June. The consequences are not confined to American pump prices: Associated Press reporting from northern Nigeria found families skipping meals as petrol costs jumped and food prices followed, including one father who lost his taxi income and watched his 18-month-old daughter relapse into malnutrition. UNICEF warned that continued war could push as many as 23.4 million additional children into monetary poverty by year’s end, with at least 80 percent of them in Africa and Asia. Ukraine and Russia Attack Ukraine and Russia opened the week with another demonstration that the war’s air campaign is becoming broader, faster and harder for either side to contain. Ukraine launched hundreds of drones toward Moscow from late Sunday into Monday. According to the Russians, most were intercepted far from the capital and 85 near it. Regional officials reported 10 people wounded and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine said its targets included logistics sites, an oil depot and vessels linked to Russia’s sanctions-evading “shadow fleet.” The assault followed a major Russian bombardment of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Russia is using more ballistic missiles, which travel at supersonic speed and leave civilians and air defenses only minutes to react. The Institute for the Study of War says Russia has already fired more ballistic missiles in July than it reportedly produces in a month, suggesting Moscow may be drawing down stockpiles. Ukraine, unable to match Russia missile for missile, is exploiting increasingly capable long-range drones against a vast territory that is difficult to defend. Ukrainian strikes this weekend hit warehouses operated by Wildberries, Russia’s largest e-commerce marketplace, causing a fire that burned for two days and was visible in satellite imagery. The episode undercuts the Kremlin’s effort to insulate ordinary Russians from the war. Record Student-loan defaults Student borrowers are still feeling the pain of the pandemic. About 9.5 million people—roughly one in five federal borrowers—are in default, with $233.3 billion unpaid. That appears to be a record high for federal student‑loan defaults, and the numbers have been climbing rather than stabilizing. The default population has jumped from 5.3 million since borrowers again became eligible to default in June 2025, after a one‑year “on‑ramp” gave them a buffer while payments restarted. During the pandemic, most federal borrowers were allowed to stop paying for more than three years without going delinquent or defaulting, and interest did not accrue. For borrowers, those numbers translate into missed rent, postponed medical bills and the feeling that the degree they were told would unlock the middle class has instead locked them out of it. The Trump administration has eliminated SAVE, the most generous income‑based repayment plan, and is moving borrowers into a much simpler but less forgiving setup with one flat payment plan and one income‑based plan. In practice, that means many people who were shielded by very low or even zero payments under SAVE will be shifted into plans that demand more money each month and offer fewer ways to cap or reduce what they owe over time. Another 1.4 million borrowers were already late enough in March to be at risk of default within six months, suggesting the default total may not be the peak. As defaults spread, borrowers lose access to credit or pay more for it, which can mean fewer car purchases, delayed home‑buying and less money circulating in the local economies that depend on their spending. The damage is concentrated. Mississippi’s default rate is 28.3 percent, and Southern states cluster near the top, with Puerto Rico’s rate higher than any state. Borrowers who attended for‑profit colleges are faring worst: about a third are at least 90 days behind, more than twice the rate among borrowers from public institutions. For‑profit schools tend to enroll more low‑income and first‑generation students, charge higher prices and deliver weaker job outcomes, leaving graduates and dropouts with more debt and less income to repay it. For many borrowers, this shows up first as credit damage and growing delinquency; for those who fall into default, it can eventually mean wage or Social Security garnishment when collections resume. The system was built on the promise that borrowing for college is a ticket into the American middle class. A record default count, concentrated in poorer states and among for‑profit students, is a sign that promise is breaking down for many of the people who needed it most. Burnham Takes Over Britain’s prime minister runs the world’s fifth‑largest economy and a major nuclear power. Decisions from No. 10 change how Britain taxes, spends and regulates. They also affect global markets, NATO planning and arguments over populism, immigration and inequality. When that job changes hands, it can change how a key U.S. ally treats energy, trade, finance and security—and how other democracies think about their own politics. Today, that power formally passed to Andy Burnham. Keir Starmer went to Buckingham Palace to resign, and King Charles asked Burnham to form a government. As we’ve told you before, Labour had already picked Burnham as its next leader; today is the constitutional handoff that makes it official. Burnham then walked into 10 Downing Street for the first time as prime minister, promised a new 10‑year plan for Britain and said he wants to put “life’s essentials” like housing and basic services back under public control. He promises to tackle Britain’s cost‑of‑living crisis with changes people would feel quickly: cheaper bus fares, more help with household bills and relief for renters who have seen costs jump. When he talks about giving local governments more authority—devolution—he means shifting decisions on housing, transport, schools and local investment out of London and into city regions and towns, backed by a new “Number 10 North” office in Manchester, meant to give the regions a direct line into the center of government. And when he calls for greater public control of buses and water, he is talking about moving some services out of purely private hands, with tighter public oversight and, in some cases, public ownership of struggling utilities such as Thames Water. He inherits slow growth, high public debt, strained public services and the lingering effects of Brexit, Britain’s 2020 exit from the European Union. Burnham also faces Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s anti‑immigration party, which is drawing voters from both Labour and the Conservatives. The question is whether he can scale up what worked for him in Manchester—and whether vote

    Stack the Week Daily
  6. 17. juli

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for Friday, July 17 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the notes. And the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you organize the new bookshelves, weed the garden bed or arrange briquets to get moving on that brisket that everyone loves so. For paid readers, I’ve gone back in and put some thoughts about why I made some of the choices I did. Okay, let’s start. Iran Infrastructure Week The Iran war is an infrastructure story today. U.S. bombing moved deeper into the systems civilians and markets depend on: bridges, ports, shipping routes, energy sites and drinking-water plants. The campaignis aimed at the physical network that lets Iran move troops, supplies and oil. The chronic kink in the Strait of Hormuz is changing corporate behavior: According to the AP, Chevron is investing in Iraqi oil fields and a pipeline route that could bypass Hormuz. Remember the time when people used to talk about this war being over? Now companies are placing bets about a permanent condition where the Strait of Hormuz is up for grabs. Iran answered by widening the target set on its side of the Gulf. One Iranian strike damaged a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant. In a dry Gulf country, desalination is not a side industry; it is the tap. Kuwait gets about 90 percent of its drinking water from desalination. The fire there was contained, but the point was made: modern Gulf water and power systems are now a part of Iran’s target list. Iran also expanded the map, striking eastern Syria in its first attack on Syrian territory in this conflict, saying it aimed at a U.S. special operations command center. The conflict is spreading, which makes it harder to stop and increases the chances that more countries—and their soldiers, supplies, and economies—get pulled in. I was unsatisfied about this Syrian bit. On the one hand, expanding the war and the downsides of that are kind of obvious, but I felt like there was something more to be said about an attack in Syria, but I just couldn’t figure out what that was by the time we got to publication hour. Iranian officials say dozens have been killed and hundreds wounded in recent days. The United States is on its seventh straight day of attacks. ICE Pressure The Associated Press reports that David Brouillette, the ICE agent who killed Johan Guerrero, has a long history of violent, terrifying behavior and serious mental‑health struggles, raising the question of how someone with that record cleared ICE’s vetting, received a gun, and was sent into an armed immigration operation. Johan Guerrero was in the country legally, was not the target, and was shot while his wife watched. I came across this interview while I was looking for how to pronounce David Brouillette’s name and came across this interview with his ex-wife. “How do you keep getting into these jobs when you’re around guns all the time.” It’s an extraordinary interview. AP reports that Brouillette’s relatives warned supervisors about his instability and abuse, that he cycled through law‑enforcement and public‑safety jobs, and that he was removed from a volunteer fire department after disputes and refusal to follow orders—each a red flag that should have mattered in a federal background check. Democrats have called for an investigation. That investigation is really about whether the pressure to deport has hardened into a machine that reliably produces human tragedy. Start with hiring and vetting. If ICE is expanding quickly, are standards slipping? Are background checks catching histories of violence, instability, misconduct, or bad judgment before people are armed and sent into volatile encounters, or has the system accepted risks it once would have rejected to meet the deportation quota? Also training. These operations increasingly look less like civil immigration enforcement and more like fugitive work: vehicle stops, surprise encounters, families nearby, frightened people, split‑second decisions. If officers are not trained for de‑escalation, for mistaken identity and families in the line of fire, the policy is not only aggressive, it is careless. This is mission creep on top of mission creep. Immigration enforcement moved away from focusing on “the worst of the worst,” the phrase that was meant to reassure voters that deportation would focus on the most dangerous people. Now it is shifting toward a more militarized posture in which civil enforcement begins to resemble street policing or tactical arrest work. ICE says it conducts more stops away from homes because agents often cannot enter without a warrant. But that limit is not a loophole to route around; it is the system drawing a line. Slowness, imposed by courts and standards, protects values, including that human life should have some value. Voters wanted deportations, but that signal is not a license to do anything. They expect promises to be fulfilled inside American rules, which is why the language became “the worst of the worst” in the first place. Candidate Trump was pledging restraint. And finally there is a permission structure here. If officials describe immigrants as invaders, praise agents after deaths, attack judges and communities, and raise quotas instead of pausing after tragedy, agents learn something: that force will be defended first and examined later. Maybe. The Burnham Age Begins Andy Burnham was elected leader of Britain’s governing Labour Party on Friday, making him the country’s seventh prime minister in a decade. Though new traditions come slowly to a venerable political system, that pace of turnover almost begs for a new ritual in keeping with Britain’s love of ceremony: something like each time a new occupant checks bags at 10 Downing Street, he should pose for a photo next to the catapult that will eventually eject them from office. At least then the exits would start to match the drama of the arrivals. The previous PM Keir Starmer resigned in June under months of pressure from Labour MPs who feared he would lose the next election to the hard-right Reform UK. Burnham hopes to forestall the fate that met his predecessors by rebalancing power. He earned the nickname “King of the North” as mayor of Greater Manchester, where he became a national figure by arguing that northern England deserved more power, money and respect. In his victory speech, he said Britain took a wrong turn in the 1980s, when political power became centralized and economic power was privatized. His core promise is the biggest rebalancing of power Britain has ever seen: moving control over transport, housing, skills, spending and economic growth away from Whitehall—the shorthand for London’s central government departments—and toward regional leaders. Burnham is trying to answer the same political disease that feeds populism all over the world: voters who think government happens somewhere else, for someone else. His immediate political task is to stop the nationalist Reform UK’s rise by convincing those voters that Labour can still hear them. His governing task is harder: prove that devolution is not a slogan, but a machine that can make life cheaper, fairer and more competent in the places that feel ignored. This preceding paragraph is essentially the kind that I’d like to have in every item in the stack. What happened, why it happened and then this: why it matters beyond the narrow confines of the story. Burnham’s first test is whether “power out of Whitehall” survives Treasury arithmetic. A high-debt, low-growth state can promise regions control over housing, transport, skills and growth, the question is whether it will also let them– or can let them– control enough money to make those promises real. Gaza Funeral Strike People gathered to bury one victim of the war. The war added more. An Israeli strike hit a funeral in Gaza on Friday, killing at least seven people and wounding 22, according to Palestinian officials. The funeral was for a Palestinian killed in an earlier strike the same day. The formal ceasefire agreed in October reduced the heaviest fighting, but it has not stopped killing in Gaza. Gaza’s Health Ministry says at least 1,123 people have been killed since the ceasefire took effect. Israel says its continued strikes respond to militant attacks and ceasefire violations; five Israeli soldiers have been killed over the same period. Xi’s AI pitch The next generation of AI will not just live inside chatbots that explain soccer offsides rules. It will make decisions in hospitals, schools, workplaces, police departments, banks, border systems, energy grids and media feeds. It will help decide which job applicants are interviewed, which medical scans get flagged, which neighborhoods get more patrols, which loans are approved and which power plants turn on when the grid is stressed. That is why the real question for humans is not which company has the biggest models—or which company has the largest initial public offering—but who writes the rules that protect ordinary people. Neither the United States nor China, the world’s two biggest AI powers, offers a clear, trusted way to protect everyday rights while this technology spreads. The incentives for dominance and profit often point away from those guardrails rather than toward them. That was the backdrop for Xi Jinping’s speech at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on Friday. He cast AI as a “symphony of international cooperation” and used the stage to launch the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, WAICO, an intergovernmental body headquartered in Shanghai and advertised as a way to help poorer and middle‑income countries catch up. In plain language, WAICO is meant to be a club for governments that want help using AI.

    Stack the Week Daily
  7. 16. juli

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for Thursday, July 16 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the steady stream of notes. And the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you mow the lawn, debone a filet, or drive back from the urgent clinic after the rescue dog bites your hand. (I’m fine, but today’s stack is going to be a little short.) Okay, let’s start. Iran Expansion The U.S. has been hitting Iran for five straight days, striking farther north towards Tehran while broadening the kinds of targets it is attacking. Reuters reports that three U.S. officials describe the latest strikes as “shaping operations”—attacks intended not only to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but to destroy the military capabilities the United States would want removed before any larger campaign. That helps explain why recent strikes have expanded beyond forces directly threatening shipping to include air defenses, command centers, surveillance sites, energy infrastructure and areas tied to Iran’s nuclear program. But these hits don’t necessarily have to be softening the ground for more intervention. The New York Times reports attacks this week on Iran’s naval power, oil production and nuclear infrastructure are meant to degrade the systems that would allow Iran to sustain a longer war. In other words, make them cry uncle. Here’s the daily count you’re used to: Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on an average day. On Wednesday, only nine made it. Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that Iran continues expressing interest in a deal. Iran reinforced that signal by releasing dual U.S.-Iranian citizen Dena Karari, whom President Trump called a goodwill gesture. Both governments continue to escalate militarily while leaving open the possibility of negotiations. More Than 500 Rohingya Feared Dead More than 500 people are feared dead after two crowded refugee boats disappeared in the Bay of Bengal. The passengers were Rohingya, a Muslim minority from Myanmar, which sits between India and Thailand. The Rohingya have lived there for generations, but Myanmar’s government says they are immigrants from neighboring Bangladesh rather than one of the country’s recognized ethnic groups. Human rights organizations reject that claim. Instead, they say the Rohingya have long faced ethnic and religious discrimination in the predominantly Buddhist country. In 2017, Myanmar’s military drove hundreds of thousands of Rohingya from their homes by burning villages, killing civilians, and forcing families to flee. Most escaped to refugee camps in neighboring Bangladesh. Life in those camps is difficult. People have few opportunities to work, little hope of building a permanent future, and almost no legal way to move to another country. Some decided to risk a dangerous sea voyage, hoping to reach Malaysia, where they believed they could find safety and jobs. The boats left in late June. One disappeared almost immediately. The other is believed to have sunk off Myanmar’s coast on July 8. The United Nations is still trying to confirm exactly what happened, which is why officials say the passengers are “feared dead.” If the number is confirmed, it would rank among the deadliest refugee boat disasters in recent years. More than 800 migrants died when an overcrowded boat sank off Libya in 2015, and more than 600 were believed lost when the Adriana sank off Greece in 2023. Stops ICE Brings Back Vehicle Stops The Atlantic reports that President Trump insisted ICE resume stopping suspects in their cars after some of his supporters criticized the agency’s brief pause, arguing it signaled a retreat from aggressive immigration enforcement. ICE says it increasingly has little choice. Many migrants have learned that if they remain inside their homes, ICE often needs a judicial warrant to enter and arrest them. Catching someone after they leave in a vehicle avoids that problem. But stopping moving cars creates a different danger. Unlike local police, ICE agents generally receive far less training in conducting high-risk traffic stops. Those encounters can unfold in seconds, forcing agents to decide whether a driver is trying to escape or whether the vehicle poses a deadly threat. The law draws an important line. The Supreme Court has held that officers cannot use deadly force simply because a suspect is fleeing. Deadly force is allowed only if an officer has probable cause to believe the suspect poses an immediate threat of death or serious physical injury to the officer or someone else. Update: Court filings cited in recent reporting allege that Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, the man shot and killed by ICE agents in Houston, had drugs in his vehicle. If that allegation proves true, it may describe what investigators found after the shooting. It does not answer the central question investigators must resolve: What did the agents know before they fired, and did they reasonably believe Salgado Araujo posed an immediate deadly threat? Evidence discovered afterward cannot, by itself, justify an earlier decision to use deadly force. Beginning in September, immigration officials deciding whether to approve a green card can once again weigh an applicant’s use of some public benefits as evidence that the person may become financially dependent on the government. Supporters say the rule helps ensure that people granted permanent residency are unlikely to depend on government assistance. They argue immigration policy should favor applicants who can support themselves without relying on public benefits. Critics argue its biggest impact falls on families who are legally entitled to benefits but avoid medical care, food assistance, or other programs because they worry using them could hurt their chances of getting a green card. Wildfire Smoke Spreads Across the East Everyone east of the Rockies can see this story out the window. As I type this I feel like a ham hock. Hazy skies, a milky sun, and, in some places, the smell of smoke. All are the result of large wildfires burning in Canada and Minnesota. The smoke has drifted hundreds of miles south and east. A large area of high pressure, sometimes called a heat dome, is trapping it close to the ground instead of allowing it to blow away. More than 115 million people could experience unhealthy air, and cities including Philadelphia have issued Code Red air quality alerts. The smoke is expected to linger through at least Friday in parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions will improve only when the winds shift or the weather pattern trapping the smoke begins to break down. As long as the fires continue burning, smoky conditions could return. Ebola Outbreak Ebola is moving in opposite directions across central Africa. In eastern Congo, confirmed infections have risen from roughly 1,926 to 2,073, while deaths climbed from 702 to 796. Uganda, meanwhile, has discharged its last Ebola patient and begun the World Health Organization’s 42-day countdown toward declaring its outbreak over. Uganda’s outbreak remained comparatively small and occurred in a more stable security environment. Workers could identify cases, trace contacts and isolate patients before the virus spread widely. In eastern Congo, years of conflict have repeatedly interrupted that. The Wall Street Journal reports one reason the outbreak continues to worsen in Congo: false claims spreading through WhatsApp voice notes have led people to hide deaths and attack health workers. Rumors circulated in Uganda as well, but they did not overwhelm the response. In Congo, misinformation has combined with armed conflict, displacement and distrust of authorities, making it much harder for health workers to find infected people before they infect others. The United States has now imposed an unusual “do not board” policy, meaning Americans who have recently been in the outbreak zone cannot simply board a commercial flight home. Previously, they could travel if they met ordinary screening requirements. Instead of relying mainly on screening after travelers begin their journey, the policy works by preventing potentially exposed passengers from boarding commercial flights in the first place, stopping them at the ticket counter rather than after they arrive in the United States. Ukraine Fires the Minister Who Wanted to Modernize the War Ukraine’s government has removed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov (mih-KAI-loh fed-OR-ov), the 35-year-old architect of much of the country’s military innovation, after a reported clash with Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi (oh-lek-SAHN-der seer-SKEE). Ukraine cannot match Russia soldier for soldier or shell for shell. Fedorov argued its best chance was to make every soldier more effective by using drones, software, artificial intelligence, and faster weapons development. Under his leadership, Ukraine dramatically expanded drone production, pushed to move supplies with unmanned ground vehicles instead of soldiers, and argued that technology—not manpower—would determine the future of the war. His critics argued that winning today’s war still requires the basics: mobilizing troops, holding trenches, maintaining discipline, and running a large conventional army. The argument isn’t really about whether technology matters. It’s about how quickly a country fighting for survival should bet the future of its army on it. Meanwhile, the fighting has shifted to another battlefield: grain. Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov, disrupting routes that carry about a quarter of Russia’s grain exports. Russia has answered by intensifying strikes on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, cutting Ukraine’s grain export capacity by roughly one-third. Together, Russia and Ukraine account for about a third of t

    Stack the Week Daily
  8. 15. juli

    Stack the Week Daily

    Welcome to Stack the Week for Wednesday, July 15 The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, the feedback, the emails, and the steady stream of notes. And the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience. Remember, this is a podcast too. Listen while you mow the lawn, debone a filet, or wipe down the whiteboard on which you’ve been trying to sync the movement of the planets with your Google calendar. Okay, let’s start. Iran 2.0 Washington Post columnist David Ignatius calls this phase of the Iran war Iran Fiasco 2.0. His argument: the administration went back to bombing without solving the problem that made the first round fail. Iran doesn’t need to win. It only needs to keep threatening ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which it can still do after every American strike. Same campaign, same result. Which is what David Sanger of the New York Times asked weeks ago on Air Force One, and got called a traitor for: if you start bombing again, why do you expect a different result? The United States restored the naval blockade of Hormuz Wednesday and flew a fourth overnight round of strikes, hitting Iranian military sites including an army barracks. By late afternoon the US military said it was launching another wave of strikes, the third in 24 hours. President Trump threatened bridges and power plants unless Iran negotiates. He would not rule out ground troops. The attacks continue until he decides they’re enough, he says. Iran fired missiles and drones toward Jordan, which intercepted three. Alerts in Bahrain. In Kuwait, cruise missiles, a ballistic missile, and dozens of drones — the heaviest attack on that country so far — wounding naval personnel. The Revolutionary Guard set its terms: energy exports stay open to everyone or to no one. If Iran can’t sell its oil, nobody sells theirs. Gas prices are going up as you’d expect. Regular is at $3.89. Diesel is near $5, which is the number that matters more, because diesel moves the trucks that move the groceries. John Ellis’s News Items points to a War on the Rocks analysis on how Iran built for this. After studying previous American wars, it designed a mosaic defense — a decentralized system in which local commanders and allied forces keep fighting after headquarters is gone. Iran handed real authority to local commanders and to allies outside Iran — the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq. They don’t need to be told what to do. So bombing Tehran doesn’t stop the missile crew on the coast or the drone team in Yemen. There is no headquarters to destroy. That’s why each new round of bombing can leave the underlying military problem intact. The plan is already inside everyone’s head. Military experts told NPR the strikes so far have not destroyed enough of Iran’s missiles, drones, and small boats to make the water safe. Even optimistic military assessments describe a campaign measured in weeks, not days. That is a much larger and much longer war than the administration has described. ICE Deaths A 28-year-old Mexican national ran from federal agents at a St. Augustine gas station and was struck by a tractor-trailer. He is the third man to die in an immigration-enforcement encounter in eight days. The other two: Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, Houston. Agents followed his work van. DHS said he weaponized the vehicle and tried to run over an officer. Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare said the agents’ actions resembled no law-enforcement tactic he’d seen, and that they were either untrained or putting themselves where firing into a car could be justified. Araujo was here illegally. He was not the target of the operation. Johan Sebastián Guerrero, Biddeford, Maine. Video caught shouting, gunfire, and his car turning in a circle before agents pulled him out while his wife and young daughter watched. His father said he had legal status and worked two jobs. Neither agent who fired wore a body camera. They were not required to. DHS now requires each arrest team to include at least one — the team, not each officer, and not necessarily the officer who fires. About half of DHS field officers have cameras. ICE has released no footage from Houston or Maine and has not named the shooters. Neither dead man was armed. Alex Pretti and Renée Good died in Minneapolis before these three, and they were described as aggressors too. They were not. Since Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, agents in the immigration crackdown have shot at least 22 people. Six died. Three were American citizens. Nearly all involved officers firing into cars. The Washington Post names the recurring question: whether officers step into a car’s path and then call the moving car a weapon. Trump’s answer: ICE personnel are doing a “GREAT job,” and the government cannot give up what he called one of its most effective crime-fighting tools. After Pretti and Good, the administration changed personnel, discussed body cameras, promised less controversy. Then Congress approved multiyear funding with no mandatory accountability provisions. This week ICE paused most vehicle stops after two fatal shootings. Border czar Tom Homan insisted it was a short review, not a policy change, and said agents would soon return to “doing what they do best.” Less than a day later, President Trump ordered the tactic resumed. The question is what evidence a citizen should require before accepting the government’s claim that a car became a weapon — when the government holds the footage, the identities, and the narrative, and has released none. Three men are dead in eight days, two of them shot by federal agents, the third chased into traffic. The agents work for the federal government and are paid by taxpayers. A country gets to decide who lives in it, but the people who voted for deportations were told it would only be the worst of the worst. Neither of the men shot was. Araujo wasn’t the man they came for. Guerrero was here legally. These were mistakes, but no one in government is treating them that way. No regret from DHS, ICE, or the White House. No condolence to Guerrero’s wife, who watched. The response was to praise the agents and defend the tactic. An institution that thought it had made a mistake would say something. Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank Israeli and Lebanese officials concluded a sixth round of U.S.-mediated talks in Rome Wednesday. The subject: “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces would withdraw and the Lebanese Army would take over. The test is whether the Lebanese state can hold ground Israel gives up, which means keeping Hezbollah off it. Trump told Netanyahu last Thursday to pull troops out of southern Syria and Lebanon, Axios reported: “They don’t want you there. You should redeploy.” An Israeli strike in central Gaza Wednesday killed a man, his wife, and their six-year-old daughter. Days earlier, a strike on a police station in a northern Gaza refugee camp killed several people, including a senior police commander; Israel said the station was used for military activities. In the West Bank, the Israeli government announced 34 new settlements. Ministers called it a historic expansion meant to prevent the creation of a future Palestinian state. Netanyahu himself endorsed a demilitarized Palestinian state in a 2009 speech. He spent the years after walking it back, and in 2019 campaigned on annexing the settlements instead. The land these 34 will sit on is the land that the state was supposed to occupy. Todd Blanche Confirmation Hearings Sen. John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, asked Todd Blanche a softball at his confirmation hearing: Is the president your friend? “I’m his lawyer,” Blanche said. Then, almost instantly: “Was his lawyer. And now I’m the deputy attorney general.” The whole hearing lived inside that correction. Blanche defended Donald Trump in the hush-money trial and the federal prosecutions. Since Watergate, the attorney general has been expected to run the Justice Department independently of the White House. The question before the Senate was whether someone who spent years serving one man can convincingly serve the institution and the Constitution instead. Adam Schiff, a former federal prosecutor whom Trump has targeted for prosecution, asked, “What happened to the Todd Blanche who was a prosecutor in the Southern District of New York?” Blanche asked to respond. “I am still here. I am the same exact person I was when I was a federal prosecutor.” Democrats argued his record now tells a different story. They pointed to the indictment of James Comey, investigations of John Brennan and Cassidy Hutchinson, an IRS settlement that a federal judge has since condemned as a bad-faith misuse of the legal process, and Blanche’s continued insistence that the 2020 election was rigged. Some 16,000 employees have left the Justice Department during his tenure, including more than a quarter of its attorneys. More than 1,200 former Justice Department employees signed a letter opposing his confirmation. More than 100 former judges filed a disciplinary complaint against him. Ten of Jeffrey Epstein’s victims sat in the hearing room. Senator Dick Durbin asked Blanche whether he would meet with them. “They have lawyers,” Blanche replied. “I’m prohibited from meeting directly with them.” Democrats noted that Blanche personally interviewed Ghislaine Maxwell last summer while she was represented by counsel. Senator Cory Booker called Blanche’s explanation “utter nonsense.” Blanche raised his voice. “You can ask the questions, but you cannot control my answers.” Since three million pages of Epstein files were released—after Congress forced the disclosure—the department has prosecuted no one. Blanche’s predecessor, Pam Bondi, said Blanche was responsible for the release that publicly identified victims by name. Republican Senator John

    Stack the Week Daily

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Stack the Week is a weekly review of the news — what mattered, what's coming, and why it all connects. With occasional acts of wonder. John Dickerson reads the week, ranks it, and accounts for it. www.johndickerson.com

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