Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie
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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

  1. Building institutions that bend towards truth, with Clara Collier of Asterisk Magazine

    15 HR AGO

    Building institutions that bend towards truth, with Clara Collier of Asterisk Magazine

    Patrick McKenzie is joined by Clara Collier, editor and publisher of Asterisk Magazine, to discuss how we create institutions that bend towards truth. Clara explains why she launched a quarterly print magazine in the Internet age. She traces how 19th century German universities invented the modern infrastructure for rewarding knowledge production and training researchers at scale, and where our public science communication falls short of that heritage. The conversation examines why institutional trust has declined, particularly around science communication and public health, and whether we can rebuild trust in knowledge-producing institutions.– Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/building-institutions-that-bend-towards-truth-with-clara-collier-of-asterisk-magazine/– Sponsor: MercuryThis episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.comMercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.–Links: Asterisk Magazine: http://asteriskmag.com–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (00:44) The birth of Asterisk Magazine (02:58) Challenges of print media (04:41) The media landscape and Twitter's influence (06:03) The art of long-form writing (13:08) Editing and copy editing in magazines (19:33) Sponsor: Mercury (20:45) Editing and copy editing in magazines (part 2) (25:24) AI in writing and editing (30:33) The origins of research universities (34:19) The flawed promotion system in academia (34:40) The rise of research institutions (35:32) The birth of modern research culture in Germany (36:27) The global influence of German universities (40:13) The American university system vs. German system (41:50) The role of public and private partnerships in science (42:47) Challenges in science communication (56:22) The impact of COVID-19 on public trust in science (01:06:42) Historical perspectives on medical trust (01:11:15) Wrap

    1h 12m
  2. How blogging went legit, with Substack CEO Chris Best

    25 SEPT

    How blogging went legit, with Substack CEO Chris Best

    Patrick McKenzie is joined by Chris Best, CEO of Substack, to discuss how the platform created new economic infrastructure for independent media. They explore Substack's evolution from a simple newsletter tool to a full media network, the revenue guarantee program that attracted prominent writers, and the company's principled stance on press freedom during the "cancel culture" years. Chris explains how subscription-based business models create better incentive alignment than attention-based advertising, and discusses new features like AI-powered video production and Substack Defender, their legal protection program for writers facing lawsuits.– Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-blogging-went-legit-with-substack-ceo-chris-best/ –Sponsor: MercuryThis episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.– Links: Chris Best’s Substack: https://cb.substack.com/– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:53) The evolution of online publishing (01:20) Substack's business model (02:05) Challenges and opportunities in media (03:47) The role of engagement in media (06:03) The birth of Substack (08:58) Making paid newsletters accessible (10:54) Revenue guarantees and early success (13:05) Substack's impact on journalism (17:59) Freedom of the press and Substack's stance (19:24) Sponsor: Mercury (20:40) Twitter's influence on journalism (24:09) Substack's role in modern media (26:04) The impact of cancel culture on journalism (26:53) The evolution of blogging and discourse (30:53) Substack's expansion into podcasts and video (32:42) AI and the future of media production (38:20) Substack defender (42:22) The growing network and future of Substack (46:03) Wrap

    47 min
  3. Prestige media, new media, and the US government, with Kelsey Piper

    19 SEPT

    Prestige media, new media, and the US government, with Kelsey Piper

    Patrick McKenzie is joined again by Kelsey Piper, who has co-founded "The Argument" to revive principled liberal discourse after witnessing how coordinated social media campaigns replaced substantive disagreement in newsrooms. Their conversation traces this institutional breakdown from media to government, examining how DOGE's spreadsheet-driven governance nearly destroyed PEPFAR, America's most successful foreign aid program that had driven infant coffin manufacturers out of business across Africa. The discussion ultimately argues that rebuilding both effective journalism and competent governance requires returning to the hard work of engaging with ground-level reality rather than managing online narratives. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prestige-media-new-media-with-kelsey-piper/– Sponsor:  This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. – Links: The Argument https://www.theargumentmag.com/– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:31) The Argument (03:19) Challenges in modern journalism (06:42) The impact of social media on discourse (13:37) The role of Substack and independent media (20:13) Sponsor: Mercury (21:30) The role of Substack and independent media (part 2) (30:59) The PEPFAR program and its importance (44:01) Impact of US aid cuts on global mortality (45:25) Substitution efforts and their limitations (47:54) PEPFAR's partial continuation and challenges (51:21) Consequences of administrative decisions (54:28) Elon Musk's influence and government actions (01:00:14) Challenges in government accountability (01:15:47) Reforming administrative processes (01:24:45) The role of community input in development (01:28:28) The power of constituent voices (01:30:15) Wrap

    1h 31m
  4. AI alignment, with Emmett Shear

    11 SEPT

    AI alignment, with Emmett Shear

    Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emmett Shear, co-founder of Twitch, former interim CEO of OpenAI, who now runs Softmax AI alignment. Emmett argues that current AI safety approaches focused on "systems of control" are fundamentally flawed and proposes "organic alignment" instead—where AI systems develop genuine care for their local communities rather than following rigid rules. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-alignment-with-emmett-shear/–Sponsor: MercuryThis episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.–Links: Softmax - https://www.softmax.com/–Timestamps:(01:26) Understanding AI alignment(04:42) The concept of universal constructors(13:45) AI's rapid progress and practical applications(19:08) Sponsor: Mercury(20:19) AI's impact on work(34:59) AI's sensory and action space(42:10) User intent vs. user request(44:35) The illusion of a perfect AI(49:57) Causal emergence and system dynamics(55:19) Reflective and intentional alignment(01:01:08) Engineering challenges in AI alignment(01:04:15) The future of AI(01:26:40) Wrap

    1h 27m
  5. Building software that survives contact with reality, with Will Wilson

    4 SEPT

    Building software that survives contact with reality, with Will Wilson

    Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Will Wilson, CEO of Antithesis, to discuss the evolution of software testing from traditional approaches to cutting-edge deterministic simulation. Will explains how his team built technology that creates "time machines" for distributed systems, enabling developers to find and debug complex failures that would be nearly impossible to reproduce in traditional testing environments. They explore how this approach scales from finding novel bugs in Super Mario Brothers to ensuring the reliability of critical financial and infrastructure systems, and discuss the implications for a future where AI writes increasingly more code.– Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/software-testing-with-will-wilson/ –Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. – Recommended in this episode: Antithesis: https://antithesis.com/–– Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:23) Database scaling and the CAP theorem(08:13) Abstraction layers and hardware reality(15:28) The problem with traditional testing(19:43) Sponsor: Mercury(23:16) The fuzzing revolution(30:35) Deterministic simulation testing(42:36) Real-world testing strategies(47:22) Introducing Antithesis(59:23) The CrowdStrike example(01:01:15) Finding bugs in Mario(01:07:37) Property-based vs conventional testing(01:09:51) The future of AI-assisted development(01:14:51) Wrap

    1h 16m
  6. Defense, drones, and military procurement, with Bean of Naval Gazing

    28 AUG

    Defense, drones, and military procurement, with Bean of Naval Gazing

    Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Bean, a pseudonymous defense industry expert, to explore the intellectual crossovers between military and civilian domains. The conversation reveals how the defense industry's fundamental constraint of having only one customer (a monopsony) creates entirely different incentives than tech, leading to conservatism and 30-50 year product lifecycles. Bean argues that drones are largely modern iterations of cruise missiles we've had since the 1950s, and explains why current anti-drone defenses make swarm attacks less threatening than headlines suggest.– Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defense-with-bean-of-naval-gazing/ –Sponsor:This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. – Recommended in this episode: Naval Gazing: https://www.navalgazing.net/–– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:29) The overlap between tech and defense (01:35) Operations research in World War II (02:55) Mathematical insights and military strategies (05:28) The role of operations research in modern warfare (16:59) Tech and defense (Part 1) (19:48) Sponsor: Mercury (21:00) Tech and defense (Part 2) (26:07) Economics behind the defense industry (32:07) SpaceX's early challenges and achievements (33:00) The Super Hornet development story (34:39) Military procurement lessons (37:42) Aerospace industry retention rates (38:42) Lockheed Martin's dominance and supply chain (40:55) Drone technology and military applications (46:53) Anti-drone defenses and future warfare (48:01) Naval warfare and historical perspectives (01:01:03) Wrap

    1h 3m
  7. AI and the great developer speed-up, with Joel Becker of METR

    21 AUG

    AI and the great developer speed-up, with Joel Becker of METR

    This week on Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joel Becker from METR. They discuss groundbreaking research on AI coding assistants. Joel et al’s randomized controlled trial of 16 expert developers working on major open source projects revealed a counterintuitive finding: despite predictions of 24-40% speed improvements, developers actually took 19% longer to complete tasks when using AI tools, even though they retrospectively believed they were 20% faster. The conversation explores why even sophisticated professionals struggle to accurately assess their own productivity with AI tools, the industrial organization of software development, and the implications for AI's recursive self-improvement in research and development. It also touches on other perspectives from software developers using these tools professionally, and where we can expect them to improve rapidly. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-great-developer-speed-up-with-joel-becker/ –Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com  Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.– Recommended in this episode: METR: https://metr.org/ Joel Becker’s site: https://joel-becker.com/ – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Understanding AI evaluation methods (02:04) METR's unique approach to AI evaluation (03:10) The evolution of AI capabilities (06:44) AI as coding assistants (09:15) Research on AI's impact on developer productivity (13:55) Sponsor: Mercury (15:07) Challenges in measuring developer productivity (20:38) Insights from the research paper (31:26) The formalities of software development (32:07) Automated tools and human discussions (32:47) AI and style transfer in software (34:35) The role of comments in AI coding (36:51) The future of AI in software engineering (40:25) Economic implications of AI in software (46:53) Challenges and risks of AI in software (59:03) Security concerns with AI-generated code (01:04:59) Wrap

    1h 4m
  8. How banks actually work (and don't work)

    14 AUG

    How banks actually work (and don't work)

    In this solo episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his classic essay "Seeing Like a Bank," exploring why financial institutions often appear to have no memory of previous customer interactions despite being excellent at tracking money itself. He breaks down the complex web of legacy systems, tiered support structures, and regulatory constraints that create Kafka-esque experiences for bank customers. Using the lens of institutional legibility borrowed from "Seeing Like a State," Patrick explains how banks' technical architecture and organizational design choices—from core processing systems to customer service tiers—systematically generate the dysfunction that customers experience when things go wrong. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-banks-actually-work/ – Recommended in this episode: Patrick’s Bits about Money essay, Seeing like a bank: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/seeing-like-a-bank/– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro(03:52) Recordkeeping systems(10:20) Sponsor: Safebase(11:50) Human accountability and its malcontents(22:57) Two embedded surprises about bank staffing(27:47) Society has goals which conflict with banks being good at banking(30:52) So what can be done about this?

    35 min
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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

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