Inside Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Gurus
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Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

  1. 22 Jul

    Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team

    Kalshi is rolling out compute forward curves and really expanding after World Cup markets have brought an insane wave of volume into prediction markets this summer. Also, Underdog Fantasy is officially entering the space with its own prediction market exchange and Henry and Chris discuss what platforms will be most popular for the NFL season ahead. Then, Larry and Joe join them in the OpticOdds Hot Seat and they talk through their backgrounds, what each of them specializes in and how they would approach building a prediction market trading team from the ground up. They get into hiring strategy, the different skill sets a market-making team needs and how to find people with a real edge.

  2. 1 Jul

    Malik Beasley EXPOSED, Prediction Market BANNED in Michigan, and World Cup Volume SHATTERING Records

    A Michigan judge has banned Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state unless they obtain an OSB license — and ordered $120,000 per day in fines if they don't comply. Chris and Henry break down why this is just another stop on the inevitable road to the Supreme Court. Then: Malik Beasley gets caught shaving props for pocket change — texts showing him scrambling to put together $2,000 while on a $42 million career contract. Chris and Henry debate how common this actually is, whether prediction markets make it easier to catch, and whether this story updates their priors on how much rigging is really happening across sports. Plus, World Cup volume is shattering records across every platform, every market maker is rooting for draws and upsets, and Chris makes a bold prediction for NFL season: $50 million at 3% worse than fair value, available in a single regular season game. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – Michigan Bans Kalshi 2:30 – Malik Beasley Caught Shaving Props 12:00 – SIG Loses $70M to Insider Trading 14:00 – World Cup Breaking Every Record 19:00 – Chris's Bold NFL Season Prediction 25:00 – Matt Kalish Draftkings Hypocrisy 28:00 – Would You Write a Check Into Kalshi at $40 Billion? #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

  3. 24 Jun

    Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets

    Former Susquehanna International Group (SIG) trader Andrew Courtney (@andrewcourt1) joins the Optic Odds Hot Seat to discuss what it's really like inside one of the world's most respected trading firms.Andrew spent 15 years at SIG, where he worked in market making, ETF trading, and trading system development before eventually finding his way into prediction markets. Along the way, he learned how professional traders think about risk, adverse selection, liquidity, and building efficient markets.This conversation offers a rare look inside the mindset of a professional trader.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:00:00 - Andrew Courtney's Background02:55 - How SIG Trains Professional Traders08:05 - Learning Market Making at SIG13:50 - Poker, Betting & Trader Culture18:30 - What Market Makers Actually Do25:00 - Why Great Traders Embrace Risk30:20 - Will AI Replace Traders?36:15 - Leaving SIG & Discovering Prediction Markets40:50 - The Biggest Problems in Prediction Markets45:10 - Sharps, Squares & Market Makers#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

  4. 3 Jun

    This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win

    A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet and how Mattress Mack was doing this years before prediction markets existed. Also, Polymarket resolves a MicroStrategy Bitcoin market to No even though the sale actually happened before the deadline and Kalshi launches the American Power Index. Then Josh (@spacemanOTH) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Josh runs a two-person betting operation focused on college football, NBA player props, and prediction market making. He breaks down how he built his team by identifying complementary skill sets at BetBash, why profiling your competitors in Survivor is just as important as picking the right team, how he thinks about toxic order flow and protecting his book as a small operation, the rookie mistake of uploading quotes in a predictable window every day, and why he took a shot on Trump in 2024. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. 0:00 – NYC Bar Hedging Knicks 2:41 – Polymarket Resolves a Market Wrong 4:34 – Kalshi American Power Index 7:20 – Introducing Josh @spacemanOTH 9:52 – How Josh Built His Team 12:00 – RFQs: Free Money or a Dangerous Experiment? 16:00 – Profiling Competitors in Survivor and Market Making 23:00 – The Rookie Mistake That Cost Him 28:00 – Low-Hanging Fruit vs. Long Term Building 33:00 – Josh's Trump 2024 Bet 41:00 – Josh's Most Expensive Mistake #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

  5. 27 May

    The Insider's Guide to Prediction Market Terminology: Defining the Terms You Need to Know

    Kyle Kuzma — yes, the NBA player — became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then: the Ninth Circuit signals it's going to rule against prediction markets on sports contracts, setting up the split circuit that everyone was expecting and almost certainly sending this to the Supreme Court. Plus, the New York Times runs a piece on regular people beating Wall Street on prediction markets. Then it's just Chris and Henry going deep on the terms that get thrown around constantly in prediction markets but rarely get properly defined. Adverse selection, top down, alpha, live betting, market making — each one broken down clearly with real examples, common misconceptions corrected, and listener questions answered along the way. If you've ever nodded along to a conversation in this space without fully understanding what's being said, this is the episode for you. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – Kyle Kuzma: Unlikely PM Hero 1:48 – Supreme Court Here We Come 4:39 – Regular Guys Are Beating Wall Street 7:06 – Defining Adverse Selection 10:30 – Defining Top Down 16:00 – Defining Alpha 22:51 – Defining Live Betting 30:00 – Listener Questions 34:15 – Defining Market Making#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

  6. 14 May

    The Insider's Guide to Market Making on Prediction Markets

    What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume is now in combos — primarily sports parlays. Chris and Henry break down what it all means, whether sportsbooks actually have the capability to book sharp flow or whether they've just never been tested, and why price discovery on prediction markets might quietly be forcing a fairer game for everyone.Chris and Henry cover the full picture: how market makers make money, why it's harder than it looks, the difference between a market maker and a sharp, why you could be trading against Joe from the deli and not even know it, and what it actually takes to level up in a zero sum game where the sportsbook model would just kick you out. One of the more educational episodes the show has done — and a good one to send to anyone who keeps asking you to explain what you do.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – FanDuel and DraftKings Enter Market Making3:00 – Can Sportsbooks Actually Book Sharp Flow?5:00 – What Is Market Making?10:00 – How Market Makers Earn16:00 – The Difference Between a Market Maker and a Sharp22:00 – Are You Really Betting Against Joe from the Deli?30:00 – Are Prediction Markets Peer to Peer?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

  7. 6 May

    Big Prediction Market Ghost Orders Scandal and How One Market Maker Beats Every Exchange

    Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera — a clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons. Also, Max Shen-Molesky of Coinflip Capital joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Max has quietly become one of the most dominant liquidity providers on prediction markets today — in both crypto binaries and sports. He breaks down his thesis that every market is effectively the same if you understand order books, how he made most of his early sports PNL in the first two months with zero competition, the wildest manipulation story you'll hear this year, and the most expensive bugs that have cost him. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – Ghost Orders 2:00 – PM CMO Caught on Live Stream 4:20 – PM Oracle Contraversy 7:40 – Max Shen-Molesky Joins the Show 15:00 – Where Max Makes His Money 18:30 – Can You Manipulate Crypto Binary Markets? 24:00 – Why Every Market Is the Same 35:00 – The Strategy That Keeps Winning 51:00 – Most Expensive Mistake #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

  8. 22 Apr

    The Insider's Guide to Getting Hired at a Prediction Market

    Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories — how Chris reached out cold and created his own role, how Henry cold-emailed a cover letter and got hired by pitching a vision the company didn't even know it needed yet — and why both paths have one thing in common: initiative.From there it's a full insider breakdown: the org chart of a prediction market company, what each department actually looks for, the honest truth about originators (most people who think they are one, aren't), what makes a great trader vs. a great engineer in this space, and why dev relations might be the most underrated open door in the entire industry right now.The second half is a live mock interview — Henry puts Chris in the hot seat with real questions he uses to evaluate trading candidates, walking through position sizing, adverse selection, tick width, and how to think about the relationship between a market maker and an exchange. If you're trying to break into prediction markets, this is the episode.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – How Chris Got His Job at Novig3:40 – How Henry Got His Job at Novig6:30 – The #1 Piece of Advice for Breaking In8:50 – The Org Chart Explained14:00 – What Engineers Need to Know22:35 – The Hard Truth About Originators26:50 – What Is a Trader, Actually?28:35 – The Mock Interview38:29 – Position Sizing and Adverse Selection46:42 – Novig Is Hiring#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

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Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Information

  • Creator
    Prediction Market Gurus
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    24
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Prediction Market Gurus
  • Show Website
    Inside Prediction Markets

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