Disorder Goalhanger & Global Enduring Disorder Ltd

Putin’s nuclear threats over Ukraine and the constant potential of an Iranian/Israeli escalation have brought concerns over nuclear proliferation back up the geopolitical agenda. Western-aligned Asian countries – like South Korea and Saudi Arabia – have begun talking openly about whether they might need their own nukes. Meanwhile, even Germany – one of the most avowedly anti-nuclear countries in Europe – is now having a new debate about whether there should be a “Eurobomb”. 
 
All these countries American allies are thinking of nuclearizing as they have a growing fear that they might not be able to rely on the US if the chips are down. All of this talk leads us to wonder will nuclear weapons ever be used and are nuclear threats and discussions of nuclearizing important even if the weapons will never be used? 
 
In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack talks to Jane Kinninmont. Jane is a peace and security expert with two decades of experience covering the Middle East, at the Economist Intelligence Unit and Chatham House. She is now with the European Leadership Network, which brings together more than 400 current, former and future European leaders to reduce nuclear risks and prevent conflict. The duo discuss: what are the risks of countries like South Korea, Germany and Saudi Arabia going nuclear? Is the current non-proliferation treaty regime up to scratch? And does nuclear non-proliferation actually work? 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
 
Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different: https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/germany-debates-nuclear-weapons-again-but-now-its-different/  
 
Read Keir Starmer: Labour commitment to nuclear weapons unshakeable: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68790435  
 
For more on Jane’s background and work: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/  
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Small states like Qatar, Ireland, Singapore, Jordan, and Botswana are thriving in our disordered world. They’re smart, agile, and are implementing novel solutions to the challenges of the 21st century. So what can the globe learn from them? 
 
In part 2 of his conversation with Dr Armen Sarkissian - Armenia’s former president and prime minister – Jason discusses Armen’s book, ‘The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World’. They look at how: 1) successful small states could use their growing economic power to promote stability, 2) how Armenia could leverage its most unique strategic resource, its diaspora, and 3) why bringing together small states into an international club – the S20 – could actually make a big difference in helping to Order the Disorder. 
 
In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jason and Alex discuss whether we’re in a world where smallness is an asset, how NATO and the EU should respond to Armenia’s geopolitical tilt towards the West, and whether the S20 could present novel ways to Order the Disorder. 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
 
Orderers, If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/ 
 
Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/ 
 
Armenia’s Westward shift and the new aid package: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Armenias-Shift-West-Draws-Ire-from-Moscow-and-Baku.html  
 
From the Washington Post: A cry for the refugees of emptied Nagorno-Karabakh: ‘We are nobody’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/11/david-ignatius-nagorno-karabakh-refugees-azerbaijan-enclave/  
 
On the Mayhem in the Georgian Parliament: https://twitter.com/OCMediaorg/status/1779820924734206064  
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April 24th marks Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, but the tragic Ottoman massacres of Armenians of over a century ago have been largely forgotten in mainstream Western consciousness. Why? 
 
In the first of a two-part series, Jason is joined by Dr Armen Sarkissian, a world-renowned theoretical physicist, diplomat, and businessman. He was Armenia’s president from 2018 to 2022 and also its prime minister from 1996 to 1997. In their interview, they discuss the century old genocide, the novel round of ethnic cleansing that happened seven short months ago in Nagorno-Karabakh, how in the 1990s Armenia could have forged a peace deal from a position of strength with Azerbaijan but missed the opportunity, and why the legacy and implications of the Armenian genocide have been largely forgotten but are essential to maintaining any form of global order.  
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/  
 
For the Encyclopedia Brittanica Definition of the Armenian Genocide: https://www.britannica.com/event/Armenian-Genocide/Genocide  
 
Armenia Under Siege: https://www.newsweek.com/armenia-under-siege-opinion-1889040  
 
On Calouste Gulbenkian as Mr 5%, and the wealthiest man in the world in his day: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jan/03/mr-five-per-cent-calouste-gulbenian-worlds-richest-man   
 
Controversial land sale puts Jerusalem Armenians on edge: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65876162  

If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/
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In the early morning hours of 19 April, American officials told major news outlets that an Israeli missile had struck central Iran near its nuclear sites. No one was harmed. Officially, the Israelis are not claiming to have attacked; and Iran is not claiming to have been attacked. It is distinctly possible that this pinprick strike combined with denials on all sides will satisfy both parties and avert further retaliation. Conversely, it is also distinctly possible that it will lead to further cycles of revenge and escalation.
 
To Order this Disorder, Jason is joined by our returning champion Arthur Snell and our great Scottish hopeful, Jane Kinninmont -- Policy & Impact Director at the European Leadership Network (an institution specializing in preventing nuclear war). The trio discuss: 1) why did Israel choose to retaliate, even though Biden counselled them to ‘Bank the Win’; 2) if this event even counts as retribution for the Iranian strikes of 14 April or could be classified as a non-strike as it is below the threshold of certain previous Israeli actions inside Iran; and 3) how Iran’s and Israel’s Sunni Arab neighbors are responding.
 
Mulling over this unique historical moment, the trio use the Ordering the Disorder segment to propose opportunities for sage diplomacy to prevail and de-escalate tensions. Of course, the mere existence of these win-win, mutually beneficial, off-ramps from further conflict, does not mean that the Iranians or Israelis will seizes these opportunities.
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/
 
Producer: James Hodgson
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
 
Show Notes Links
 
For a quick overview of April 19th’s events: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/israel-carries-out-strikes-isfahan-iran-reports?mc_cid=a8bfe16bdf&mc_eid=b844138f36
 
 
For Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out-of-the-shadow-war-iranian-narratives-of-the-confrontation-with-israel/
 
For Arthur Snell’s Substack, ‘Not All Doom’: https://arthursnell.substack.com/
 
And for his podcast ‘Behind the Lines’: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656
 
Join ELN’s roundup of the Persian language news: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=f9c4fc8e446f80bb4d50ed06f&id=ca7882ea45
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Taiwan is not only the epicentre of the world’s semi-conductor industry and a vibrant democracy. It is arguably the most important square on the chessboard of East Asian geopolitics. And the Taiwanese have watched very carefully how China has absorbed Hong Kong.  The ‘one country, two systems’ mantra was a total failure. 
 
China is not planning a peaceful union with Taiwan. China is building its military at a rate not seen since World War II. The Chinese explain their military buildup by claiming a desire to reunify with (i.e. invade) Taiwan by 2027. Is this just posturing by China or is a great power battle over the island – i.e. between the US and China – actually approaching? 
 
To examine the state of play in China/Taiwan relations, Alex Hall Hall is joined by former Danish diplomat, Jonas Parello-Plesner. In his recent book – “The Battle for Taiwan” – Jonas explores what China is doing to shape the regional balance of power. In the discussion, Alex and Jonas discuss: the surrounding countries’ (Japan/South Korea/Philippines) role in deterring China, how seriously we should take Xi’s stated ambition of ‘assimilating’ Taiwan into China, and how should Taiwan and its friends in the West protect and prepare for such a likelihood. 
 
Twitter: @DisorderShow 
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
Get Jonas Parello-Plesner’s book “The Battle for Taiwan” at https://www.amazon.co.uk/Battle-Taiwan-Jonas-Parello-Plesner/dp/B0CZRYS4RZ/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=  
 
For More on Taiwan’s recent election: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html  
 
Read Alex’s most recent Bylines Times article 
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/04/09/the-dilemma-facing-civil-servants-over-the-uks-arms-sales-to-israel/  
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In the early morning hours of April 14th Iranian drones and missiles were launched towards Israel. The launch was framed as retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1st.   
 
Nearly 99% of the projectiles were intercepted. Although little physical or human damage was sustained, regional relations have been fundamentally recast: Sunni Arab states like Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia allowed the US, UK, and Israel to use their territory and intel assets to counter the threat. Israeli PM Netanyahu initially vowed a retaliatory strike, but Biden, Sunak and others are trying to dissuade him. 
 
To discuss the late breaking developments and relitigate their previous predictions, Jason is joined from Dubai by Disorder’s own Roving Correspondent, David Patrikarakos. The duo set the context of the strikes within the long durée context of decades of proxy conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic. They investigate how these events might spiral out of control to cause an apocalyptic War of Gog and Magog or how they could reconfigure regional alliances and allow for renewed Qatari/American/Egyptian mediation to find an off-ramp from the current conflict.  They also investigate the current famine in Gaza and the lack of Israeli policy for long term governance solutions for the territory.  
 
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  
 
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  
 
Producer: George McDonagh 
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 
 
Show Notes Links 
 
For an overview of the Iranian strikes and Israeli response: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/13/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news 
 
The Role of Biden: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/  
 
Read David’s sage prediction in Unherd, ‘Iran is winning the Gaza war Tehran's violent strategy could soon escalate’: https://unherd.com/2024/04/iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war/ 
 
And Jason’s plea to blame Bibi and not the Jews:  https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/blame-netanyahu-for-gaza-not-the-jews/  
 
Our Oct 12th episode: The 2023 Israeli-Hamas war: A Symptom of our era of Disorder?: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e48504038444024ddfb4d273932b9eec  
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