Trade with Conviction

Sparta

In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.

  1. 4 days ago

    Episode 100: The great divergence: crude collapses while products rally

    Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus 10-year-high distillate rallies. Russia's refinery crisis, Hormuz rebalancing, and when stock replenishment becomes the real floor signal. Chapters:  **(01:47) Hormuz reopens, but the real question is what comes next**  10-15 million barrels per day flowing out, but Iran maximizing exports while US refills reserves. **(08:46) Russia's refining collapse is reshaping global product markets**  Runs halved from 6M to 3M bpd. Ukraine's drone campaign crippling refineries. Fuel imports imminent. **(12:50) Distillates at 10-year highs: Russian exports collapsing, US yields maxed**  Global diesel and jet spreads outdoing 2022. East-West spreads historic. Products decoupling from crude. **(17:25) Gasoline: The trend is your friend, but watch blending margins**  RBOB and EBOB spreads rally to $51 on stock depletion. Arbs from ARA still pointing West. **(27:20) Crude at peak weakness: Why the TI Brent short thesis works now**  Paper collapsed, logs battered, all solutions materialized. Neil on why prices can only rise from here.

    41 min

  2. 25 Jun

    Episode 99: Brent flips to contango. Is the crude crisis over?

    Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer. Chapters:  (01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens. Traders extrapolate supply forward, but is it fair value? (09:15) The Asian crude buffet Dubai swaps at minus one, Murban dives $10, Iranian waiver lands. Why nobody wants the risk yet. (16:57) OPEC, UAE and refinery runs UAE back to max, China independents at a nine-year low. How fast does AG supply return? (20:40) Distillates and the Russian diesel ban Diesel off panic pricing but not loose. Abhishek leans bearish jet and HOGO as flows normalize. (30:13) Gasoline and naphtha Houston still tightest globally, but US peak tightness looks behind us. Weak naphtha caps any gasoline upside.

    34 min

  3. 18 Jun

    Episode 98: Iran signs, crude breaks $80, but we're now oversold

    Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai swaps in contango, an oversold barrel. They weigh whether Hormuz reopens cleanly or shipping delays keep oil short for longer. Chapters:  (00:31) The Iran MOU: signed, but what was signed? A $300bn package, a 60-day Hormuz waiver and a deal that looks better for Iran than the US. (06:31) Scenarios: oversold now, but is it real? Dubai swaps in contango, longs washed out. Neil maps the path from here over the next six weeks. (15:43) Distillates: cracks cool, US stocks stay perilous Gas oil spreads sell off hard, but heating oil holds as PADD diesel stocks signal slowing US exports. (18:57) Gasoline: the US bounce and Europe's supply wall RBOB spreads firm as arbs open to New York, while Dangote and Northwest Europe cap the upside. (23:32) Crude: heavy everywhere except the US AG and Brent diffs plummet, US tightens then peaks, and China is the swing nobody can call. (29:03) Fuel oil: 0.5 looks oversold East-west back below $40/ton at pre-war levels, with arbs shut and Dangote barely breaking even.

    32 min

  4. 10 Jun

    Episode 97: Hormuz transits accelerate but risk is high.

    Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and why Singapore VLSFO blend margins are building a bullish case into Q3. Chapters:  (00:48) Atlantic freight: the tonnage trap Ships flooding the Atlantic from all segments as Persian Gulf flows shrink, driving wild rate swings. (04:47) Iran, Hormuz and US strategy US-Iran direct conflict resumes; Hormuz transits quietly growing as Iran's oil influence fades. (07:26) Demand data and inventory watch Indian and EU demand mixed; Cushing near its 20 million barrel floor; VLSFO stocks at zero in Fujairah. (12:09) Record VLCC orders: a long-term warning 262 VLCCs on order, surpassing the 2008 peak. The bearish signal shipowners cannot ignore. (19:19) PG crude: trickle turns to stream ADNOC tenders 14 million barrels; Dubai premiums soften; China stays out of WAF and PG markets. (26:59) Products quickfire: distillates, gasoline, fuel oil Singapore regrade strengthens; VLSFO east-west collapses to $55/ton; Botany Bay gasoline arb reopens.

    33 min

  5. 4 Jun

    Episode 96: Peace deal merry-go-round continues

    Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts Neil Crosby and first-time guest Jay Maroo. The episode covers the stalled US-Iran peace process, Hormuz transit at 10% of pre-crisis levels, Indian and Chinese product exports collapsing, Cushing approaching its 20 million barrel floor, and why crude, distillates, and gasoline all look too cheap. Chapters:  (01:15) Sleepwalking into the inventory crisis Lebanon complicates the Iran deal; Brent under $100 despite accelerating US commercial crude draws. (06:00) Hormuz: 10% of pre-crisis flows Jay Maroo: even a peace deal won't reopen flows quickly — Hormuz is a runway, not a field. (10:29) India, Russia, China: the supply rescue fails Indian exports at 4-year lows, Russian runs collapsing, Chinese product exports disappoint May expectations. (14:39) Distillates: gas oil rallies, heating oil spreads lag Kuwait airport attack lifts sentiment; heating oil spreads haven't followed — and may still be the trade. (20:28) Crude: Cushing at 22 million barrels Commercial draws hit 1 mbd last week; physical diffs in Europe cooling from unexpected crude inflows. (26:57) Gasoline: at five-year mean, everything looks cheap ARA cheapest into LatAm; demand destruction estimates rising to 5-6 mbd globally.

    38 min

  6. 28 May

    Episode 95: Risk-off and short-term solvers, but it won't last.

    Neil Crosby and June Goh cut through the noise on US-Iran deal speculation, unpacking why flat price is off, what 7 million bpd of Chinese crude imports means for diesel east-west dynamics, and why Sing FOGO holds up when bunker demand proves more inelastic than diesel. 00:00 – Hormuz risk and deal pricing Why the market is pricing an imminent deal, and why the evidence points the other way. 03:03 – China's crude import collapse May imports potentially at 7 million bpd — what that means for Asian balances and global supply. 09:32 – Dubai window and physical crude Dubai in the doldrums with almost no convergences; sellers stuck with cargo bought at higher levels. 09:53 – WTI, TI-Brent, and US market tightening Commercial draws accelerating, WCS diffs rising, MEH diff tightening — why TI-Brent could move further. 12:16 – Gasoline: RBOB, TA spreads, and Latam Summer arb mechanics, TC2 tonnage overhang, and the ARA vs Houston competitive dynamic. 17:09 – Distillates, east-west, and fuel oil China's crude release reshapes diesel E/W; Sing FOGO positive bias as bunker demand holds more inelastic than diesel.

    28 min

  7. 21 May

    Episode 94: The largest stock draw in history. Oil barely moved.

    Felipe Elink Schuurman, June Goh, and new analyst Abhishek Kumar cover a record 19.5mb stock draw that barely moved prices, the Russia OFAC waiver with no new barrels, India's supply strategy, Asia's group buying trend, and trade views across distillates, jet, fuel oil, and gasoline. Chapters: (01:02) Trump backs down and vessels start moving June on the Iran strike cancellation, ICE Brent's fall, and the first VLCCs exiting the Strait. (02:35) Record 19.5mb stock draw. The market barely reacted. June on the historic combined crude and product draw and why flat price still fell to $105/bbl. (07:35) Russia waivers and UK exemptions: what they actually mean The OFAC extension adds no new barrels. The UK diesel/jet waiver is a sign of desperation, not relief. (12:45 ) India in focus: supply strategy, Russia dependency, and SPR plans Abhishek on India's pump price hike, Modi's demand appeals, and long-term moves to expand strategic reserves. (19:24) Physical crude: Asia over-supplied for August June on the prompt overhang, Brent backwardation at $4.50/bbl, and why WAF grades remain undervalued. (23:17) Distillates, jet, and gasoline: trade views Abhishek's case for July ICE gas oil cracks, bearish NWE jet, and June on Singapore 92 near 5-year highs.

    37 min

  8. 13 May

    Episode 93: No Iran deal yet. US stocks are draining. What breaks first?

    Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and James Noel-Beswick cover the stalling Iran deal, Karg Island's loading disruption, US diesel and gasoline stocks nearing commercial minimums, growing export ban risk, collapsing Brent differentials, and why the market keeps surprising on timing. Chapters: (01:08) Iran deal stalls and Karg Island goes quiet Neil on why the deal looks dead and what a loading stoppage at Iran's main export terminal signals. (03:13) US product stocks and the export ban risk Diesel and gasoline near commercial minimums. Neil on why a ban could land before June. (06:25) Distillates: jet yields, the regrade, and East West Jet yields near max, the regrade has overshot, and why James is bullish from here. (28:50) Crude: Brent diffs collapse and China goes quiet WAF selling slowly, Chinese imports 3mbd below normal. Neil makes the case for buying Brent diffs. (36:26) Gasoline: ARA turns cheapest, US starts to drain ARA now the cheapest global source, US stocks declining, and why 2015-style summer tightness is back. (40:12) Getting the timing right The team reflects on why fundamentals have been right but timing wrong, and what the real trigger points are.

    48 min
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About

In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.

Information

  • Creator
    Sparta
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    100
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2024 All rights reserved.
  • Show Website
    Trade with Conviction

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