Competent Man Podcast

Tom Bodrovics
  • 0.0 (0)
  • ENTREPRENEURSHIP
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

This isn’t just another podcast—it’s a movement for thinkers, doers, and anyone ready to step up and become the best version of themselves, one skill at a time. Bringing you a wide range of content so come with an open mind and a sense of adventure!

Episodes

  1. 5 DAYS AGO

    Adrian Day: The Next Leg of the Gold Market Will be Explosive in the Miners

    Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of EuroPacific Gold Fund, shared his insights on the mining industry and gold market during a podcast with host Tom Bodrovics. Day attended the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference, noting an initial positive sentiment among investors, particularly junior companies, although this declined as gold did not respond as expected to geopolitical events like the bombing in Iran. Day explained that gold tends to move ahead of such events but then drops in the immediate aftermath due to various factors, including the strength of the U.S. dollar and interest rates. Day expressed a bullish outlook on gold for the next six to twelve months, citing persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, and central bank policies as driving factors. He also highlighted the significant buying of gold by central banks and Tether, a stablecoin organization, which is price-agnostic and buys gold to back its stablecoin. Day noted that individual investors in the U.S. are largely absent from the gold market, and institutional capital has not yet significantly driven the market. Day discussed the U.S. stock market's complacency and the role of 401(k) plans in maintaining a steady flow of money into the market. He also touched on the disconnect between global and regional gold and oil prices, attributing this to liquidity crunches and regional supply issues. Regarding the broader commodity market, Day sees value in other commodities like copper, oil, and agricultural products, which have lagged behind gold and silver. He also noted that foreign markets are likely to outperform the U.S. market in the coming years, with good valuations in the UK, Hong Kong, and Brazil. Day predicted a stagnationary environment for commodities, with gold and oil potentially being top performers. He also discussed the Fed's likely response to current economic conditions, expecting rate cuts but not as dramatic as some anticipate, and a continuation of quantitative easing. Looking ahead, Day believes the gold market will remain strong and that the U.S. will lose its dominant reserve currency status within the next decade, transitioning into a bipolar world with different spheres of influence. He also mentioned the potential for a final farewell tour by the Rolling Stones in ten years, with even more expensive tickets.

    1hr 1min

  2. 6 DAYS AGO

    Lawrence Lepard: War Means Much Higher Inflation and $15,000 Gold

    During a podcast with Tom Bodrovics, Lawrence Lepard, Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates, discussed the complex economic and geopolitical landscape, focusing on the impact of the recent war and its potential consequences. Lepard highlighted several key indicators to monitor, including the U.S. 10-year yield, gold, Bitcoin, and the price of oil, which he believes are crucial for understanding market dynamics. Lepard expressed surprise that financial markets have held up relatively well despite significant risks, suggesting potential market manipulation by the federal government to maintain stability. He predicted that the war could lead to a recession and a rollover in the stock market, although he believes the market might be artificially supported. He also discussed the potential for increased inflation due to higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions, particularly from the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact various commodities and goods. Lepard emphasized the importance of holding assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin, which he views as safe havens in an environment of potential currency debasement. He argued that the current monetary system is unsustainable and that a return to a sound money standard is necessary to prevent further economic and social issues. Lepard also touched on the private credit bubble, comparing it to the housing crisis of 2008, and warned that the unwinding of this bubble could have significant repercussions for the financial system. Throughout the discussion, Lepard stressed the need for investors to stay informed and adaptable, as the economic environment is likely to remain volatile. He predicted that the next leg of the gold and silver bull market is imminent, with silver potentially offering more asymmetric upside due to its industrial uses and lower stock levels. Lepard also highlighted the potential of Bitcoin, particularly in geopolitically unstable regions, as a portable and secure store of value.

    56 min

  3. 13 MAR

    Lyn Alden: The War & Sovereign Debt-Crisis Loop that the US has Now Entered

    In a podcast hosted by Tom Bodrovics, Lyn Alden, the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, discusses the economic implications of recent geopolitical events, particularly the Iran war, and its impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets. Alden emphasizes that fiscal dominance and sovereign debt crises often coincide with periods of war, complicating the investment landscape. She maintains that her base case scenario for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet growth remains a "gradual print," where the Fed will end quantitative tightening and transition to a gradually rising balance sheet in line with normal GDP or bank deposit growth. Alden highlights that the war in Iran, while expensive, is not a game-changer for the U.S. economy in the short term. However, it adds variance and uncertainty to the gradual print scenario, pulling forward the risk of a more significant print if the conflict escalates. She notes that the Fed's primary concerns are disruptions in the interbank lending market and the Treasury market, both of which have shown minor stress but remain stable. The discussion also touches on the impact of higher energy prices on the economy and the housing market. Alden believes that a prolonged energy price spike could affect housing affordability and market sentiment but does not expect a housing market collapse in the near term. She also discusses the role of liquidity in financial markets and how assets like Bitcoin and gold can serve as proxies for global liquidity. Alden concludes by advising investors to expect elevated shocks and headlines due to the current geopolitical and economic environment. She recommends diversification, owning high-quality scarce assets, and embedding assumptions of chaos into investment models. She also mentions the potential for a multi-polar world with neutral reserve assets, like gold and Bitcoin, playing a more significant role in the global financial system.

    54 min

  4. 12 MAR

    Bob Coleman: What Is Holding Back The Silver Market?

    Bob Coleman, Founder and President of Idaho Armored Vault, discusses the evolution of the gold and silver industry with Tom Bodrovics. Over the past five to six years, the industry has shifted from a focus on mining and monetary metals to a more casino-like atmosphere, driven by high-frequency trading and hedge funds. This shift has led to increased volatility and the dominance of paper markets over physical metals. Coleman highlights the role of ETFs like SLV and GLD, which are used for investment, hedging, and speculation, and how options and futures markets influence price movements. He notes that the physical metal remains the bedrock of the industry, but the price action is often driven by derivative strategies rather than physical demand. Coleman also discusses the impact of high-frequency trading and algorithmic strategies on price movements, citing examples from October 2023 and January 2024. He explains how the dislocation of metal between exchanges and the tightening of borrowing rates can create volatility and affect the ability of market makers to create shares. Coleman raises concerns about the reliability of exchanges like the CME and LME, citing outages and the cancellation of trades, which can create uncertainty and reputational risk. He also discusses the role of margins in stabilizing or destabilizing markets and the potential for illiquidity to drive prices higher. Coleman advises investors to understand the fundamentals of the market, the market structure, and the risks associated with storing metals. He cautions against relying too heavily on AI and encourages critical thinking and diversification of knowledge sources. Coleman also touches on the potential impact of longer-dated calls on gold and the importance of understanding the strategies behind such trades. He concludes by emphasizing the need for due diligence and a healthy dose of skepticism in navigating the complex and volatile precious metals market.

    55 min

  5. 9 MAR

    Edward Dowd: Three Risks The U.S. Can’t Stop – That Will Crash the Markets

    Edward Dowd, founding partner of Phinance Technologies and co-host of the Signal Vs. Noise Podcast, discusses several significant economic themes with Tom Bodrovics, including a potential housing crisis in the US, the bursting of the AI bubble, and China's real estate and demographic challenges. Dowd highlights that a sustained oil price above $80 due to conflict with Iran could exacerbate the current economic situation, leading to deflationary pressures as consumers are already strained. The impending housing crisis, termed a "white swan" event, is driven by factors such as the post-COVID housing boom, increased property taxes, and rising interest rates. Dowd notes that the market is frozen due to unrealistic price expectations and affordability issues, with new home pending sales at an all-time low. This crisis could significantly impact the consumer economy, as housing constitutes about 20% of it. Dowd also addresses the AI bubble, suggesting that cracks are already appearing as credit markets question the growth rates and revenues of AI startups. He predicts that the AI bubble could burst this year, with credit markets playing a crucial role in this process. The discussion also touches on the differences between private credit and public credit cycles. Private credit, which has grown significantly post-2008, is more opaque and could lead to higher bid-ask spreads as the cycle unwinds. Dowd warns that this could create feedback loops, tightening credit and potentially freezing the market. Regarding the stock market, Dowd believes it has been stagnant since October 2022 and predicts a 30-50% drawdown. He advises having cash on hand to take advantage of opportunities during this deflationary scare. Dowd also discusses the potential for a new monetary system, suggesting that gold and silver will play a significant role and could reach much higher prices by 2030. Dowd sees the US dollar as a strong currency in the next 6-12 months and expects bonds to perform well due to declining growth expectations and deflationary pressures. He also highlights the potential contagion effects from China's real estate and demographic crisis, which could impact its trading partners and, consequently, the global economy. Dowd concludes by sharing his daily routine of monitoring yields, the dollar, and equity markets to gauge the economic landscape. He emphasizes the importance of understanding cycles and demographics in predicting economic trends.

    32 min

  6. 5 MAR

    Craig Tindale: Is AI Coming For Your Job?

    Craig Tindale, a private investor and writer of the CTindale Substack, joined host Tom Bodrovics for an in-depth discussion on geopolitical dynamics, economic shifts, and the implications of artificial intelligence (AI). The conversation began with an analysis of the geopolitical situation in Iran, particularly focusing on the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. Tindale emphasized that the strait is a critical choke point for global energy and trade, comparing it to the jugular vein of global commerce. He noted that while oil prices spiked during recent conflicts, the market's initial lack of reaction to the 12-day war signaled a belief that oil shipping through the strait would not be significantly disrupted. Tindale delved into the concept of "titanium bolts"—small but crucial components that, if missing, can halt entire systems. He applied this analogy to the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that even if oil flow is maintained, the disruption of other critical supplies could have profound economic consequences. He highlighted the interdependence of global economies, using China as an example, noting that while China has significant oil reserves, it imports vast amounts of other essential goods, making it vulnerable to disruptions. The discussion then shifted to the role of AI in the global economy. Tindale argued that while AI is often portrayed as a job-killing technology, its impact is more nuanced. He pointed out that many jobs, particularly in white-collar sectors, have already been automated or outsourced. Tindale suggested that AI could fill gaps left by an aging workforce, particularly in sectors like aged care, where demand is expected to rise significantly. He also criticized the current marketing and implementation of AI, suggesting that companies are not effectively communicating the benefits and capabilities of the technology. Tindale and Bodrovics also explored the idea of decoupling between the U.S. and China, suggesting that while there is a political push for decoupling, the economic interdependence is too deep to be easily severed. They discussed the potential for a new geopolitical balance, where the U.S. and China might find a way to cooperate despite their differences. The conversation concluded with a reflection on the evolution of technology and society. Tindale emphasized the importance of understanding the physical and metabolic systems that underpin the economy, suggesting that the future will involve a rebalancing of global trade and a focus on sustainability and resilience. He advised listeners not to over-rely on predictions and to maintain a balanced perspective on the future.

    1hr 1min

  7. 4 MAR

    Peter Goodburn: Amid Iran Chaos 🚨 Gold & Silver Plunge – Rebound When?

    In a March 3rd podcast, host Tom Bodrovics and Peter Goodburn, founding partner of WaveTrack International, discussed the impact of recent geopolitical events in the Middle East on financial markets, with a focus on commodities and metals. Goodburn, an advocate of Elliott Wave analysis, emphasized that this method discounts fundamental news, with price action preceding exogenous events. He cited the recent decline in precious metals, despite expectations of a safe-haven rally, as an example of this phenomenon. Goodburn also discussed the "shock pop drop" cycle, a concept he introduced in 2010 to explain the behavior of stock and commodity markets since the Great Depression. According to this framework, the financial crisis of 2008 was the "shock," followed by a "pop" phase of commodity inflation, which is still ongoing and expected to last until the end of the decade. The subsequent "drop" phase will be characterized by a collapse in asset prices. Goodburn expects interest rates to rise significantly in the coming years, with the Fed funds rate potentially reaching 10%. He also discussed the implications of the US dollar's bearish long-term outlook for commodities and the potential for a significant increase in oil prices in the future. Goodburn provided specific price targets for various commodities, including gold, silver, platinum, and uranium, based on Elliott Wave analysis. He also highlighted the importance of questioning mainstream narratives and conducting independent research in financial markets. Goodburn encouraged listeners to explore WaveTrack International's reports and services for further insights.

    1hr 3min

  8. 26 FEB

    Craig Tindale: The West is Sleepwalking into the Real War of a New Age

    Craig Tindale, a private investor and writer of the CTindale Substack, discusses the "return of matter" with host Tom Bodrovics, emphasizing the shift from a financialized economy to a material economy. Tindale argues that the West has outsourced manufacturing to countries like China, leading to a dependency on foreign supply chains for critical materials. This has created vulnerabilities, particularly in defense and technology sectors, where materials like gallium, tantalum, and rare earths are essential. Tindale highlights that China's control over refining processes for these materials poses significant risks, as evidenced by shortages and strategic restrictions. He uses examples like silver and tantalum to illustrate how critical material deficiencies can disrupt industries and economies. Tindale criticizes the Western focus on optimizing for price, which has led to a stateless economic model that prioritizes lowest cost over sovereignty and security. He argues that this model has been exploited by state capitalist economies like China, which optimize for their own interests. Tindale suggests that the West needs to rebalance its economy by investing in domestic manufacturing and refining capabilities to ensure self-sufficiency and security. He references historical figures like Alexander Hamilton and contemporary issues like the F-35 fighter jet program to underscore the importance of maintaining industrial independence. Tindale also discusses the role of passive investing and the Federal Reserve in exacerbating economic imbalances, and he advocates for a more balanced approach that values the material economy alongside the financial one. He concludes by encouraging investment in innovative companies that are developing new technologies for refining and producing critical materials, suggesting that these companies will be the future leaders in a world increasingly aware of supply chain vulnerabilities.

    1hr 8min

  9. 24 FEB

    Louis-Vincent Gave: China Has a Crisis of Confidence

    In this podcast, Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO of Gavekal Group, discusses his unique perspective on global economics, drawing from his extensive experience in Asia, particularly China. Gave argues that China has shifted from being a deflationary force to a reflationary one, a change driven by China's strategic de-westernization of its supply chains, which initially led to a real estate bust and reduced domestic consumption. However, China's newfound competitiveness in high-value industries has positioned it as a significant global economic force. Gave highlights that China's policy shift towards stimulating domestic consumption and reducing reliance on exports will have global implications, potentially forcing Western policymakers to reassess their fiscal and monetary policies. Gave also delves into the complexities of China's internal issues, such as youth unemployment, stagnant wage growth, and the impact of real estate market fluctuations on consumer confidence. He emphasizes that China's challenges are not merely economic but also psychological, with confidence being a critical factor in reviving the economy. The discussion touches on the role of precious metals in China, noting that Asian investors, particularly from China, Japan, and South Korea, have been significant buyers of gold and silver, viewing them as a hedge against low interest rates rather than just inflation. The conversation also explores the potential geopolitical shifts, particularly the mending of relationships between China, India, and Russia. Gave speculates that this trilateral cooperation could lead to a significant economic boom, driven by the complementary strengths of these nations. He compares this potential shift to historical reconciliations, such as the rapprochement between France and Germany after centuries of conflict. Gave introduces the Gavekal asset allocation grid, which categorizes economic conditions into four quadrants: inflationary boom, inflationary bust, deflationary boom, and deflationary bust. He argues that the current global economic environment is characterized by an inflationary boom, driven by loose fiscal and monetary policies. This context makes bonds a less attractive asset class, while commodities and equities are more favorable. In conclusion, Gave shares his belief that China's current economic situation mirrors the U.S. in 2009-2010, where weak growth and stimulus led to strong stock market performance. He suggests that this dynamic is often misunderstood, as many believe strong economic growth is necessary for a robust stock market. Gave's insights provide a nuanced view of China's economic trajectory and its global implications, offering valuable perspectives for investors and economists alike.

    55 min

  10. 19 FEB

    Graham Summers: Why It’s Time for the Miners to Outpace Gold’s Gains

    During the podcast, Graham Summers, President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, discusses the current state of the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell, highlighting several controversies and strategic moves. Summers notes that the Powell Fed has been embroiled in scandals, including insider trading by senior officials, which went unpunished. He also criticizes the Fed's shift in focus towards issues like climate change and racial discrimination, arguing that these topics are outside the Fed's mandate of managing inflation and employment. Summers is particularly critical of Powell's initial dismissal of inflation as transitory, which he sees as a politically motivated move to secure his reappointment. The discussion also touches on President Trump's attempts to control the Fed, including pressuring it to cut rates and replace officials like Lisa Cook, who was accused of mortgage fraud. Summers suggests that Trump's actions are strategic, aimed at securing more control over monetary policy, especially in light of potential political challenges in the midterms. He also discusses the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, noting Warsh's historical opposition to aggressive monetary easing, which seems at odds with Trump's current stance. Summers further explores the economic implications of the Fed's actions, arguing that the current strategy of running the economy hot and trying to lock in low-interest rates is a strategic move given the high levels of debt and spending. He expresses concern about the potential for inflation to rise again and the economic impact of an AI-induced depression. Summers believes that while AI will significantly shift the economy, it is not likely to cause a jobs apocalypse but rather a transformation in how people work with technology. The conversation also delves into the market's reaction to AI, with Summers noting that AI stocks have been a significant driver of market gains but may be overvalued. He predicts a rotation away from the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) tech stocks towards other sectors and hard assets like copper and lithium, which are essential for AI infrastructure. Summers sees this as a potential inflationary move and highlights the strategic importance of the AI arms race between the U.S. and China. He also discusses the role of gold as a safe haven asset, noting the recent tectonic shifts in gold's market dynamics and its potential as an investment.

    46 min
  • 10 Episodes

About

This isn’t just another podcast—it’s a movement for thinkers, doers, and anyone ready to step up and become the best version of themselves, one skill at a time. Bringing you a wide range of content so come with an open mind and a sense of adventure!

Information

  • Creator
    Tom Bodrovics
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    10
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © All content is owned and copyright by Tom Bodrovics, All Rights Reserved.
  • Show Website
    Competent Man Podcast

You Might Also Like