China has ample room to expand the global use of renminbi through trade and commodity settlement, supply chain finance and offshore market development, senior economists said, adding that the process will be gradual and largely hinges on continuing financial market reforms across the globe. 经济学家表示，中国在通过贸易和大宗商品结算、供应链金融以及离岸市场发展来扩大人民币全球使用方面拥有充足空间。他们指出，这一过程将是渐进的，并在很大程度上取决于全球金融市场的持续改革。 As the existing US dollar-dominated architecture sees an erosion of global trust and buckles under the strains of geopolitical conflict and the weaponization of financial infrastructure by some countries, the internationalization of the renminbi will help make the global monetary system more inclusive and resilient, they said.他们认为，在当前以美元为主导的体系面临全球信任侵蚀，并在地缘政治冲突和部分国家将金融基础设施武器化的压力下举步维艰之际，人民币国际化将有助于构建一个更加包容和更具韧性的全球货币体系。 In an exclusive interview with China Daily, Zhu Min, former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said the trend of renminbi internationalization is “unstoppable”, and the technical pathway is “already mapped out”.国际货币基金组织前副总裁朱民在接受《中国日报》专访时表示，人民币国际化的趋势“不可阻挡”，技术路径“已经铺就”。 Zhu pushed back against a long-held assumption that the renminbi could not become a major international currency without full convertibility and a fully liberalized capital account. “We need to correct this old mindset,” he said.朱民反驳了一种长期存在的假设，即人民币在没有实现完全可兑换和资本账户完全自由化的情况下，不可能成为主要的国际货币。“我们需要纠正这种旧的思维定式，”他说。 He pointed to the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket, a collection of five major international currencies that gives the renminbi a 12.48 percent weighting after the dollar and the euro, as proof that such constraints are not necessarily insurmountable.他援引国际货币基金组织特别提款权货币篮子为例，该篮子由五种主要国际货币构成，人民币以12.48%的权重位列美元和欧元之后。他认为，这证明了上述制约因素并非不可逾越。 Expanding the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade settlement serves as a viable and crucial pathway toward its further internationalization, experts said.专家表示，扩大人民币在跨境贸易结算中的使用，是其进一步国际化的可行且关键路径。 “For a currency to become truly global, settlement is a critical gateway,” said Miao Yanliang, chief strategist at China International Capital Corp. “And in that respect, China‘s trade leverage is growing.”中国国际金融股份有限公司首席策略师缪延亮表示：“一种货币要真正实现国际化，结算是一个关键门户。在这方面，中国的贸易优势正在不断增强。” Miao noted that China is the world’s largest trading nation and largest crude oil importer, as well as a dominant consumer of copper, iron ore and soybeans. “That trade position gives China a unique advantage to gradually enhance the convenience and acceptance of renminbi settlement,” he added.他指出，中国是全球最大的贸易国和最大的原油进口国，也是铜、铁矿石和大豆的主要消费国。“这种贸易地位赋予了中国独特的优势，可以逐步提高人民币结算的便利性和接受度，”他补充道。 In recent years, geopolitical shifts have accelerated the renminbi‘s adoption, with some commodity sellers increasingly exploring settling trade in renminbi.近年来，地缘政治的变化加速了人民币的使用，一些大宗商品卖家越来越多地探索使用人民币进行贸易结算。 The recent disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted vulnerabilities in the existing dollar-centric oil trading system, said Shi Kang, chair professor at the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University.清华大学国家金融研究院副院长、五道口金融学院讲席教授施康表示，近期霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻事件，凸显了当前以美元为中心的石油交易体系的脆弱性。 “In the coming period, we will see more oil trade settlement gradually shift away from the existing dollar-based system,” Shi said.“在未来一段时间，我们将看到更多的石油贸易结算逐渐从现有的美元体系中转移出去，”施康说。 Beyond trade settlement, Zhu, the former IMF official, noted that strengthening the renminbi’s role as a “financing tool in global supply chains” would also bolster its international standing.除了贸易结算，前国际货币基金组织官员朱民指出，加强人民币作为“全球供应链融资工具”的作用也将提升其国际地位。 China accounts for nearly one-third of global manufacturing output, equaling the combined share of the United States, Japan, Germany and South Korea, yet its currency plays only a modest role in international finance, Zhu said, describing this as “a clear mismatch”.朱民表示，中国占全球制造业产出的近三分之一，相当于美国、日本、德国和韩国的总和，但人民币在国际金融中仅扮演着温和的角色，他将此形容为“一个明显的不匹配”。 “The US’ real economy has weakened, but it still underpins an enormous dollar system，” he said. “Geo-economic shifts inevitably drive changes in finance and beyond.”“美国的实体经济已经疲软，但它仍然支撑着一个庞大的美元体系，”他说。“地缘经济的变化必然推动金融及其他领域的变革。” A stronger renminbi is not only an inevitable choice for China‘s development, but also a necessity for global financial stability, Zhu stressed, saying that the renminbi could be used more extensively within global supply chains to align with China’s manufacturing strength.朱民强调，更强势的人民币不仅是中国发展的必然选择，也是全球金融稳定的需要。他表示，人民币可以在全球供应链中更广泛地使用，以与中国制造业的实力相匹配。 For a currency to become truly internationally strong, Zhu said, it must not only be usable for cross-border transactions, but also be held as a store of value and eventually repatriated or reinvested, all of which requires deep bond markets, robust derivatives markets and a liquid offshore market.他表示，一种货币要真正成为国际强势货币，不仅必须能用于跨境交易，还必须能作为价值储藏手段被持有，并最终能够回流或再投资，这一切都需要有深度的债券市场、稳健的衍生品市场和流动性充裕的离岸市场。 Miao, from China International Capital Corp, suggested that China could increase the supply of offshore renminbi, including expanding the availability of government bonds and high-grade renminbi-denominated bonds, to provide global investors with secure renminbi holdings and to support the domestic economy.中金公司的缪延亮建议，中国可以增加离岸人民币的供给，包括增加政府债券和高等级人民币债券的可获得性，从而为全球投资者提供安全的人民币资产，并支持国内经济。 In another development, the Ministry of Finance plans to issue a total of 84 billion yuan ($12.4 billion) of renminbi-denominated sovereign bonds in Hong Kong this year. The first two issues, totaling 29.5 billion yuan, were made in February and April.另一方面，中国财政部计划今年在香港发行总计840亿元人民币（约合124亿美元）的主权债券。其中，前两期共计295亿元人民币的债券已于今年2月和4月发行。 The world is facing an urgent need for more diversified safe-haven assets and liquidity, said Shi, from Tsinghua University.清华大学的施康表示，世界迫切需要更多元化的避险资产和流动性。 That is a gap that the renminbi, backed by China‘s proactive institutional opening-up, is increasingly positioned to fill, Shi added.他补充说，在中国积极主动的制度型开放支持下，人民币正日益能够填补这一空白。 “We do not want to replace the dollar system, nor are we trying to develop a separate system，” Shi said. “China’s goal is to address the weak links in the current monetary system, allowing more currencies to participate and thus enhance global financial stability.”“我们不想取代美元体系，也不是要建立一个独立的体系，”施康说。“中国的目标是解决当前货币体系中的薄弱环节，让更多货币参与进来，从而增强全球金融稳定。” Marc Uzan, executive director of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, said that central banks are diversifying reserves, more energy deals are being priced in nondollar currencies, and countries are settling trade in local currencies. However, he acknowledged that the dollar‘s structural advantages remain significant, and “a swift end to dollar hegemony is unlikely”.重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会执行董事马克·乌赞表示，各国央行正在多元化其储备，更多能源交易正以非美元货币定价，各国也在使用本币进行贸易结算。不过，他也承认，美元的结构性优势依然显著，“美元霸权不太可能迅速终结”。 He said he expects a multipolar future in which the dollar, euro and renminbi will each play a larger role, alongside regional currencies.他表示，他预计未来将出现一个多极化的格局，美元、欧元和人民币将与区域
