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Soy, Canola, Sunflow, Palm - Production, Pricing, and Politics. From weather to logistics..

  1. 12/14/2025

    CropGPT - Sunflower - Week 50

    This week’s update provides a detailed look at the evolving landscape of the global sunflower oil market.  Russia is poised to become the leading exporter of sunflower oil, with forecasts indicating an increase from 4.2 million to 4.4 million tons for the 2025 season. However, domestic production faces setbacks. A shift by Don region farmers to local seed varieties has resulted in yield reductions of 20 to 30 percent. The Russian Grain Union has voiced concerns over the quality of these seeds, stressing the need for domestic breeding improvements to meet global standards.In Ukraine, sunflower oil exports are expected to decline from 4.7 million to 4.2 million tons due to a lower harvest, now projected at 10.5 million tons—a reduction of 1.5 million tons from earlier estimates. Oil production is also falling to 4.5 million tons. This shortfall has caused sunflower prices to rise, ranging from 28,429 to 28,500 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton. High demand and limited supply are driving intense competition among processors.Argentina maintains stable sunflower oil exports at 1.5 million tons, offering consistency amid broader market volatility. While not a top exporter by volume, Argentina’s reliable output plays a key role in global market stability.Turkey has significantly ramped up imports of Russian sunflower oil, reaching 82,600 tons in October valued at USD 108.7 million. This surge from previous years reflects deepening trade ties with Russia and reinforces Turkey’s strategic positioning in the sunflower oil market.

    3 min

  2. 12/14/2025

    CropGPT - Canola - Week 50

    This episode provides a detailed overview of recent developments in the global canola and rapeseed markets. Bulgaria has experienced a notable rise in rapeseed cultivation, yielding 290,000 tons this season. However, this growth has not offset a shortfall in raw materials, prompting increased rapeseed imports. The emphasis on rapeseed has also led to stagnation in sunflower seed production, which has remained at 1.5 million tons for two consecutive years. As a result, Bulgaria has grown more reliant on sunflower seed imports from Romania and Moldova, affecting the local processing industry.Russia’s record oilseed harvest, particularly from the Rostov region and Krasnodar territory, is expected to bolster rapeseed oil and meal exports. Yet, sunflower oil prices have climbed by 15 to 20 percent over the past 18 months due to strong domestic and international demand. India remains the top importer of Russian sunflower oil, while emerging markets in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia signal expanding demand. However, export capacity is constrained by infrastructure limitations at key southern ports like Novorossiysk.In Canada, canola production hit a record 21.8 million tons in 2025, despite a reduced cultivation area. Export volumes have declined, primarily due to reduced trade with China, affecting the country’s trade balance. Domestic price volatility and logistical challenges in grain transport are further influencing the market landscape.Australia’s canola exports dropped to 62,708 tons in October due to depleted stocks ahead of the new harvest. During this period, Japan played a key role as a major importer. Meanwhile, domestic processing has reached record levels, supported by strong international demand for rapeseed oil. Favorable agricultural conditions and market signals are fueling positive expectations for future production.

    3 min

  3. 12/14/2025

    CropGPT - Palm - Week 50

    This episode reviews significant developments in the global palm oil market. Malaysia’s palm oil sector is experiencing notable volatility. In December 2025, stock levels are projected to increase by 3 percent month over month to 2.93 million tons, driven by slower export growth. At the same time, production has fallen 11 percent month over month to 1.72 million tons. However, cumulative output for the first eleven months of 2025 rose 3.4 percent year over year to 18.45 million tons. Rising inventories alongside solid production could place downward pressure on crude palm oil prices as 2026 approaches. Meanwhile, the sector is navigating a contrast between its growing role in carbon markets and persistent challenges in pricing competitiveness, logistics, and trade relations, especially with China and India.Indonesia is taking a strategic turn with the introduction of a B50 biodiesel mandate, aiming to raise the palm oil share in biodiesel to 50 percent by late 2026. This move is expected to boost domestic demand, although analysts warn it may disrupt the supply-demand balance. As one of the world’s leading palm oil producers, Indonesia’s policy shifts continue to shape global market pricing and sustainability standards.Cameroon is also advancing its role in the palm oil sector, with plans to increase crude palm oil production by 20,500 tons in 2026. Supported by a CFA51.7 billion investment from Standard Chartered Bank London, the country is developing new processing infrastructure to reduce reliance on imports and improve food security. Strategies include expanding plantation areas, enhancing yields among smallholder farmers, and improving logistics to address a structural supply deficit.

    3 min

  4. 12/07/2025

    CropGPT - Sunflower - Week 49

    This week's episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global sunflower market. In Russia, sunflower oil exports have sharply declined due to oversupply and falling international demand. Export volumes dropped by 29% year-over-year between January and October 2025, totaling 3.45 million tons. Russia’s fluctuating export duty system, tied to prior pricing spikes, has also constrained supply. Domestically, a stronger ruble and rising raw material costs have reduced foreign supply, benefiting local producers who are increasingly targeting the internal market. Harvest outcomes varied across regions: the Altai territory performed well, while the Southern Federal District faced drought-related setbacks likely to push prices higher in early 2026.Argentina saw a strong season, with sunflower production hitting 5 million tons following a 57% expansion in cultivation over five years. Favorable tax conditions, particularly a 4% export tax for sunflower oil versus 24.5% for soybean oil, have encouraged a shift from soybean to sunflower cultivation. Export activity surged by 76%, despite only a modest domestic consumption increase of 10.37% over five years.Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region reported a standout performance with 537,000 tons of sunflower oilseeds, supported by growing local processing infrastructure. Exports to China and Lithuania exceeded 1,000 tons, highlighting strong international interest.Ukraine remains the world’s leading sunflower oil exporter, contributing 46% to global exports, despite ongoing conflict impacting quality and logistics. Domestic challenges include high retail prices and constrained seed supply, pressuring processors to explore alternative oilseeds.In the European Union, sunflower processing reached a nine-year low, dropping 2% from July to September due to stock shortages and a delayed harvest. Sunflower oil production fell to 1.74 million tons, while soybean processing increased by 7%, indicating a broader shift in EU oilseed dynamics.India’s import profile shifted toward palm oil, driven by price advantages. Sunflower and rapeseed oil imports declined, while palm oil imports rose 4.6% in November. This contributed to a broader reduction in India’s total edible oil imports, which reached a seven-month low, reflecting global trends in oilseed markets and pricing.

    4 min

  5. 12/07/2025

    CropGPT - Canola - Week 49

    This episode offers a focused update on global canola market developments. Canada reported record-breaking production in 2025, with wheat output rising 11% to 40 million tons and rapeseed production climbing 13% to 21.8 million tons. The Canadian prairies played a pivotal role in this success, aided by late-season rainfall that offset early drought conditions. Eastern provinces faced challenges with heat and low rainfall, though timely harvests prevented major losses. Domestic canola crushing capacity rebounded to approximately 90% following a decline, a crucial development following China’s imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola exports in March 2025. The tariff has driven a stronger focus on domestic processing, with potential for further capacity expansion amid rising biofuel demand. However, concerns remain about market distortions due to imported low-carbon waste feedstocks used in blending.In Bulgaria, canola production recovered to about 290,000 metric tons following two years of reduced harvest area. This recovery showcases the adaptability of Bulgarian agriculture, though sunflower production remained flat at 1.5 million tons. Bulgaria continues to rely heavily on imports, especially of sunflower seed flour, though rising domestic canola output may benefit local processors.Ukraine implemented a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed, exempting producers who export their own goods. Revenue from this duty will support domestic agricultural processing, infrastructure, and war risk mitigation. These measures aim to strengthen internal capabilities amid ongoing conflict.Australia’s government revised its 2025 crop forecasts significantly upward. Canola output is projected at 7.2 million tons, bolstered by excellent growing conditions in Western Australia and Queensland. However, parts of New South Wales suffered from below-average rainfall, tempering yields in those areas.India’s edible oil import strategy shifted toward cost-effective options, with palm oil imports rising 4.6%. In contrast, sunflower oil imports fell to a two-year low in November, and total edible oil imports declined by 11.5%. This shift underscores Indian buyers’ price sensitivity and the resulting impact on global edible oil trade flows.

    5 min

  6. 12/07/2025

    CropGPT - Palm - Week 49

    This week’s episode delivers an in-depth review of the global palm oil market. Malaysia's palm oil sector continues to grapple with volatility. Prices have been buoyed by strength in the global vegetable oil complex but face downward pressure from weak export data and a stronger ringgit. October production was strong, yet rising inventories and sluggish early November exports have limited price momentum. The Malaysian government stresses the need for competitive export strategies and consistent policy frameworks amid market uncertainty.Indonesia experienced strong production and export growth throughout 2025. Elevated global prices boosted export revenues between January and August. However, government crackdowns on illegal plantations spotlight regulatory challenges that may hinder future production and replanting efforts. The country’s B50 biodiesel mandate has significantly increased domestic consumption, supporting internal demand but potentially limiting exports. This policy is expected to shift consumption and trade dynamics substantially.India's palm oil imports are being reshaped by domestic pricing dynamics, which influence the competitiveness of palm oil relative to soybean and sunflower oils. Recent data indicates a decline in imports as supply chains adjust to cost pressures and local alternatives gain traction. Strategic economic and trade policies remain key in shaping India’s role as a major palm oil importer.Globally, the palm oil sector is affected by biodiesel mandates in key producing nations, regulatory changes, and climate variability. Emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East are becoming critical destinations for palm oil exports, offering new growth avenues. This contrasts with traditional markets such as the European Union, where regulatory restrictions are limiting palm oil’s use in biofuel, reflecting a broader realignment in global demand patterns.

    3 min

  7. 11/30/2025

    CropGPT - Sunflower - Week 48

    This week’s sunflower market report. In Ukraine, heavy rainfall has hindered the sunflower harvest, particularly in western regions. As of November 20, approximately 9.01 million tons have been harvested from 92 percent of planted areas, marking a year-over-year decline. Despite lower yields, purchase prices have surged due to expectations of higher acidity in remaining crops, which is helping stabilize market prices.Geopolitical tensions are causing processing delays, contributing to increased demand and prices for sunflower meal as buyers seek alternatives to more expensive grains like barley, wheat, and corn. Meanwhile, Romania is experiencing a notable production decline. In response, domestic processors are prioritizing seed exports over oil due to strong international demand and attractive premiums, which is reducing Romania’s sunflower oil export volumes and challenging its position in newly secured markets.Russia’s Rostov region has seen a steep drop in sunflower exports, with only 863 tons shipped since January 2025, down significantly from the previous year. Export destinations have shifted to Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt, driven by drought-induced crop and oil yield losses. In contrast, Romania's Bunge is expanding sunflower processing at its Leliu Gara plant, investing in technology and sustainability to strengthen its longstanding agricultural presence.In the North Caucasus Federal District, sunflower production is up 9 percent year over year, reaching 480,000 tons, with the Stavropol territory anticipating further yield gains due to favorable conditions. However, Southern Russia has experienced an 18 percent decline in total harvest, down to 3.1 million tons, largely due to extreme heat and drought during flowering, which reduced both yields and oil content.

    4 min

  8. 11/30/2025

    CropGPT - Canola - Week 48

    This week’s canola market report. Canada is facing mounting pressure in its canola export market following China’s imposition of a 76 percent tariff. Efforts to redirect exports to the European Union have been constrained by reduced EU demand, driven by a strong domestic harvest and weaker biofuel sector activity. Canadian exports to the EU have fallen sharply, compounding the impact of restricted access to the Chinese market. Nonetheless, domestic processing remains solid, with 3.18 million tons of canola processed by mid-November.A potential opening for Canada could emerge if Australian canola shifts back to China, freeing up room in the European market. However, the EU’s own rapeseed production has surged to an estimated 20.3 million tons in 2025, bolstered by high yields in countries such as Denmark and Sweden. This strong harvest has significantly reduced the EU's import dependency, reshaping global trade patterns and diminishing opportunities for traditional suppliers like Canada.Ukraine has made progress in planting winter rapeseed over 1.08 million hectares, reaching 96 percent of its intended area. Still, forecasts indicate a possible production decline by 2025, which could trigger a price increase due to tightening supply. Meanwhile, Russia is expanding its winter rapeseed plantings beyond projected levels for the 2026 season, potentially strengthening its future export position.Globally, the oilseed market is set to achieve record production levels. Strong outputs in rapeseed, palm kernel, and sunflower seeds are expected to compensate for reduced soybean supply, with total oilseed production forecasted at approximately 688 million tons for the 2025–2026 crop year.However, persistent trade tensions between the United States and China continue to cloud the international trade landscape, adding uncertainty to future market trajectories and export flows.

    4 min
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Soy, Canola, Sunflow, Palm - Production, Pricing, and Politics. From weather to logistics..

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