Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win. Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. 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Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad 12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues 17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters 19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election 24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map 30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification 36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity 43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way? 45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi 51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out 54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it 1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day 1:21:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:23:30 Will public companies offload their news networks? 1:25:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN 1:29:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney 1:33:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning 1:38:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money 1:45:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums 1:50:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman 1:57:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback 1:59:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation 2:06:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward 2:15:00 Ask Chuck 2:15:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out? 2:19:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar? 2:24:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin? 2:28:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out 2:29:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable? 2:35:00 College football preview See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
