With the stock market hovering around all-time highs at the halfway point of the year, it’s easy to let short-term market noise, geopolitical tensions, or Fed anxiety dictate your strategy. But what truly drives long-term stock returns? In this episode, Matt, Lee, and John take a data-driven step back to look at what the market actually cares about: corporate earnings. They break down the lockstep correlation between forward earnings growth and stock prices, the massive broadening out of the market (including the recent 21-22% surge in the Russell 2000), and why the historical divergence between small-cap and large-cap earnings is rapidly closing. The guys also tackle the massive CapEx spending trends of tech hyperscalers, the recent performance of gold and Bitcoin, and why a truly diversified portfolio built for the long haul is your best defense against market volatility. Topics Discussed: ➡️ Market Drivers vs. Noise: The long-term engine behind stock returns is corporate earnings growth, which historically moves lockstep with stock prices, whereas politics, Fed actions, and geopolitical events tend to drive short-term sentiment and volatility. ➡️ Market Broadening: The S&P 500's year-to-date gains have broadened out to the wider market, with the Magnificent 7 no longer acting as the primary drivers and smaller companies in the Russell 2000 outperforming. ➡️ Tech CapEx and Free Cash Flow: Major tech hyperscalers are heavily spending their free cash flow on massive capital expenditures (CapEx) for infrastructure and AI, leading the market to re-rate their near-term valuation multiples. ➡️ Geopolitical Resiliency: Despite ongoing conflicts like the war involving Iran and friction in the Strait of Hormuz, historical data shows the stock market typically adjusts to long-standing geopolitical tensions over time as global infrastructure adapts. ➡️ Asset Class Shifts: Safe-haven and alternative assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin have recently experienced sharp sell-offs, contrasting with the stock market sitting near all-time highs. ➡️ Small-Cap Earnings Recovery: Small-cap corporate earnings have staged a dramatic recovery since late 2025/early 2026, closing the significant performance divergence that opened up against large-caps starting in 2022. Enjoyed the episode? Don’t forget to: 👍 Like & 💬 We look at the data, not the drama. Do you think the market has officially tuned out the geopolitical noise, or are we due for a reality check in the second half of the year? Drop your thoughts below! Email us your financial questions at TheMarketMoment@mach1fg.com 🔔 Subscribe and join our growing online community of everyday investors! #MarketMoment #CorporateEarnings #SmallCapStocks #StockMarketUpdate #LongTermInvesting 🍿 Watch Next: Eli's latest Data Brief video, The Social Security Dilemma: Should I Take it Now or Later? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZvAM6XtgtY 🎙The Market Moment Podcast! Last week's episode... "How the Tech and Corporate Layoff Trend is Shaping Early Retirement Conversations" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xerrog5Blo We're on Facebook! https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61557724292379 Give us a follow on Instagram! @themarketmoment https://www.instagram.com/themarketmoment/ www.instagram.com/themarketmomemt/ 📌 About The Market Moment Podcast: Hosted by advisors from Mach 1 Financial Group, LLC — a Registered Investment Advisor located in Rogers, Arkansas. We break down market trends, personal finance, retirement planning, and investing topics every week for everyday investors. ⚠️ Disclosure: The views expressed in this video are solely the opinions of the participants and are provided for informational purposes only. They should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any securities or companies mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. For more information about Mach 1 Financial Group LLC, please refer to our current disclosure brochure available through the SEC website or at disclosures.mach1fg.com.