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RFI goes behind-the-scenes of one of the week's major stories.

  1. 1d ago

    Israel's move to recognise Armenian genocide stalls under regional pressure

    The Israeli parliament's decision to postpone a vote on recognising the Armenian genocide by Ottoman Turkey is being seen as a triumph for regional diplomacy, as Azerbaijan in particular seeks to avert a further escalation in tensions between its close allies. The Israeli government gave no official reason for postponing the vote to formally recognise the Armenian genocide by Ottoman Turkey during World War I, which would have ratified a motion approved by the cabinet last month.  Ankara strongly denies the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Armenians constitute genocide. While the motion's architect, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, called recognition a “moral duty”, critics say the move took aim at Turkey amidst rising tensions. Based in Tbilisi, Israeli defence and security expert Eugene Kogan claims Israel badly miscalculated. “Foreign Minister Sa'ar could have waited and not just dropped a bomb that led to different repercussions coming from different sides,” he said. Armenia, which is seeking to normalise ties with Turkey, reacted coolly, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan saying he saw no need to comment. Meanwhile, Israel’s close ally Azerbaijan reportedly lobbied Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to drop the motion. “At the end of the day, it might be either dropped or dismissed, and it will not come again to the new parliament agenda,” predicted Kogan. The Knesset dissolved on 17 July and won't reconvene until after elections scheduled for 27 October. Israel's recognition of the Armenian genocide unsettles Turkey and Azerbaijan Azerbaijan's influence The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that pressure from Azerbaijan tipped the scales, though officials deny it. Azerbaijan supplies nearly 40 percent of Israel’s oil and is a major customer for Israeli arms. The two countries’ partnership involves frequent Israeli ministerial visits and strong military cooperation, especially crucial for Israel given Azerbaijan’s border with Iran. Baku also maintains a deep alliance with Ankara, summed up in the phrase “one nation, two states”. As Israeli-Turkish tensions flare over the Gaza conflict and Ankara’s support for Hamas, Azerbaijan is walking a diplomatic tightrope. Zaur Gasimov, a Caucasus expert at Istanbul’s Turkish-German University, believes Baku viewed the Israeli genocide motion as a direct threat to its difficult balancing act. “I can imagine that there were negotiations and talks on various levels between political elites of both countries,” he said. “For Israel, Azerbaijan is still of paramount importance. I would even say it's much more significant than it used to be with regard to the situation in and around Iran. So Baku was and is maybe the key intermediary between Israel and the Republic of Turkey.” In what may be a calculated move to turn up the heat on Israel, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev welcomed Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa this month. It was the first visit by a Palestinian leader since 2011. “They [Israel] perceive it with a great sense of caution,” claimed analyst Kogan. “They don't know exactly what came out of this particular meeting between Aliyev and the Palestinian prime minister. And so there is a lot of guessing games right now taking place in both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem about the outcome.” Such ambiguity over Baku’s intentions could strengthen its diplomatic hand, he suggested: “If Aliyev is involved in this Palestinian issue directly and no longer indirectly, it makes the situation very different for the Israelis.” Turkey warns it could be Israel's 'next enemy' as tensions escalate Syrian precedent Baku is already leveraging its strong relationships with both Israel and Turkey to cool tempers. “We have organised meetings between Turkey and Israel in Baku, specifically at the very beginning of the change of the Assad regime in Syria, where both parties had their own legitimate concerns,” said Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy adviser to the Azerbaijani president. Syria is viewed as a potential flashpoint, with Israel and Turkey having a military presence. One tangible outcome of Azeri-brokered talks was the establishment last year of a military hotline in Syria, providing a rare glimmer of hope as tensions continue to mount. “It's not unavoidable that Israel and Turkey will reach confrontation. I think we can stop this process,” argued Gallia Lindenstrauss, a specialist in Turkish foreign policy at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies. “They have a hotline between the Israeli Air Force and the Turkish Air Force, making sure that we will not have a collision in the skies of Syria, because we know both air forces are operating there. And the hotline has managed to keep the situation quiet. If I'm trying to find some anchor of reassurance that Turkish-Israeli relations can be controlled, it's Syria.” As Israel approaches elections, a temporary lull in Turkish-Israeli tensions is anticipated. Still, since the main opposition shares the government’s concerns over Turkey, relations are set to remain fraught.

  2. 6d ago

    Turkey marks a decade since the coup that never was, but never really ended

    On 16 July, Turkey marked a decade since the failed coup that shook the nation. Its defeat is widely viewed as the final curtain on military meddling in politics and as the moment when President Erdogan cemented his grip on power, yet the aftershocks for human rights and foreign relations still reverberate. On 16 July, Turkey marked a decade since the failed coup that shook the nation. Its defeat is widely viewed as the final curtain on military meddling in politics and as the moment when President Erdogan cemented his grip on power, yet the aftershocks for human rights and foreign relations still reverberate. A decade ago, factions within the Turkish military, composed of rebellious officers and followers of the Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, launched a dramatic attempt to topple President Erdogan. "I remember, as a soldier, those who started the coup," recalls Murat Aslan, an army officer at the time. "I had no idea that there were members of this organisation (Gulen followers); they were very secretive." Erdogan tightens his grip Now a security analyst at SETA, a pro-government think tank, Aslan describes the failed coup as a turning point that reshaped the course of Turkish democracy. "The message was very clear. Turkish society collectively rejected it," said Aslan. "Thousands took to the streets; that's more than challenging, because you see tanks rolling and people trying to stop them, trying to capture the soldiers with their rifles. It takes more than courage." More than 250 people died resisting the coup. In the aftermath, Erdogan imposed emergency rule and expanded his presidential authority through a sharply contested national referendum. "This military intervention actually consolidated the Erdogan-led government," Aslan added. Turkey's military, relations with US to survive failed coup, ruling party vice-president Hundreds of soldiers and officers faced prosecution as the government declared an end to the army's long history of political interference. Since 1960, the military had orchestrated three coups, the most recent in 1980. A decade of purges and closures In the wake of the failed takeover, tens of thousands were purged from state institutions, many never returning even after being cleared. More than a thousand NGOs were shut down during two years of emergency rule. Milena Buyum, senior Turkey campaigner for Amnesty International, acknowledges the grave threat to democracy posed by the attempted coup: "The state has a responsibility to ensure the safety and security of its citizens and to investigate criminal acts like the ones carried out that night," said Buyum. Turkey's Erdogan warms to Russia after West coup response However, Buyum warns that many of the measures introduced under the state of emergency have since been written into ordinary law, permanently curtailing fundamental freedoms: "The right to freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and association: the impact on civil society was felt very sharply and starkly in the immediate aftermath of the coup, but that impact continues," said Buyum.  Ankara's alliances The failed coup also drove a wedge into Turkey's long-standing alliance with the United States. "Ankara saw the hand of the United States behind the failed coup attempt," claims Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who leads the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund. Even before the attempted coup, Erdogan's relations with President Barack Obama had been tense. Obama's belated support, offered only after the coup had failed, fuelled Ankara's suspicions of US complicity, particularly as Washington refused to extradite Fethullah Gulen, whom Erdogan blamed for orchestrating the plot. Gulen denied the accusation until his death in 2024. Turks in France divided on failed coup Unluhisarcikli observes that US-Turkish relations remained strained for years, while Erdogan gravitated towards Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose rapid show of support stood in sharp contrast to Washington's hesitation. "Putin was among the first leaders, I believe even the first, to extend political support to the elected government in Ankara, and in those days I believe that support mattered greatly to President Erdogan," Unluhisarcikli said. Rumours still persist in Turkey today that Moscow warned Erdogan on the day of the failed coup. Unluhisarcikli says it was only with the election of President Donald Trump, who shared Erdogan's animosity towards Obama and Joe Biden, that US-Turkish relations began to thaw, a shift highlighted at this month's NATO summit in Ankara. Yet the wave of mass arrests during the summit, enabled by post-coup emergency powers, served as a stark reminder that the shadow of the failed takeover still looms over Turkey.

  3. Jul 13

    Trump lifts Turkey sanctions, eyes F-35 sale

    US President Donald Trump made headlines this week at the Nato summit in Ankara by declaring an end to all sanctions against Turkey, paving the way for the sale of the F-35 stealth fighter jet to the alarm of Greece and Israel. 'We are going to be taking the sanctions off; it's time to do that, OK. We don't want to sanction friends; it's very simple,' declared Trump to the international media, sitting next to his host, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Trump lifts Turkey sanctions Trump was referencing the sanctions imposed on Turkey after Ankara acquired the Russian S-400 missile defence system. This move led to Turkey being barred from purchasing the American F-35 stealth fighter. Washington argued the deal jeopardised sensitive technology. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned any sale of F-35 jets to Turkey, warning it would adversely affect the balance of power in the region. Summit host Turkey eyes major weapons deals with NATO allies 'We are in a crisis between Israel and Turkey,' warns Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies. 'I still would not characterise them as enemy states,' added Lindenstrauss, 'But the threat perception in both countries is growing, and there's a security dilemma evolving between the two countries. What each one thinks it's only doing for its defence is perceived by the other country as offensive.' Turkey is pushing hard for the immediate delivery of six F-35s it has already paid for. Yet despite Trump's promises, the shadow of Turkey's S-400 missile system purchase still looms large: 'This is not a political decision; that is actually a legal question,' claims Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund. Unluhisarcikli is referring to the US National Defense Authorization Act, which prohibits the sale of the F-35 until Turkey relinquishes 'possession' of the S-400. 'He (Trump) will, one way or another, need Congress's approval, and this is what Israel and Greece are trying to prevent,' said Unluhisarcikli. However, Turkish and international media reported on Friday that Ankara will sell the S-400s to the United Arab Emirates. Moscow, which reportedly has a veto on any resale of the missile, has reacted cautiously. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov described the issue as 'extremely sensitive' and said they were in talks with Ankara. F-35 sale faces resistance If Ankara manages to sell the S-400, it still faces headwinds in securing the F-35 jet. Netanyahu is reportedly preparing to visit Washington this month, where he's expected to ramp up his campaign against any F-35 sale to Turkey. The Israeli ambassador in Washington has also been in talks with Greek and Cypriot counterparts, forging a united front against Ankara. Greece and Cyprus share Israel's concerns, having their own disputes with Turkey. Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a US think tank, predicts a tough fight for Ankara. 'This is about politics, and the politics of Turkey in the US Congress remains sour and not very good,' warns Stein. 'There are vested interest groups — the Israelis, the Greeks and others — who don't want to see an F-35 sale to Turkey and are pushing hard against it.' Turkey’s mediator role in the Ukraine war faces growing US pressure Time is also an enemy of Ankara, warns Stein, with looming November Congressional midterm elections. 'Even if you get some movement on this (sale of F-35s), you will probably see a change of power in Congress, with the new government seated in January. So there is no pathway, in my opinion, for the F-35 to get through,' predicts Stein. Before departing the Nato summit, Trump seemed to soften his stance on the F-35 sale, saying he was inclined to sanction the sale but hadn't totally made up his mind. However, Ankara might be content with Trump's symbolic backing. 'I don't believe that these are mere empty words; they are expressions of political will to find a solution to the S-400 problem and to bring Turkey to the very centre of the transatlantic alliance,' claims analyst Unluhisarcikli. 'In a matter of a couple of years, Turkey moved from its position as being basically contained by both the United States and the European Union, to becoming a key ally for NATO and for Europe's security,' he added. Greece and Turkey look to revive rapprochement amid Aegean tensions Erdogan may well savour this symbolic victory, especially since even if the F-35 sale moves forward, experts predict it would take years for the jets to be ready for action due to the need for pilot training and support infrastructure. By that time, Turkey hopes to have its own stealth jet, the Kaan, soaring through the skies.

  4. Jul 13

    China's missile test overshadowed by Iran war, but Pacific nations are watching

    China recenly test-fired a nuclear-capable missile from a submarine into the Pacific, the first such launch from a nuclear-powered vessel and the first submarine-based test since 1982. The missile, identified by Taiwan as a JL-2 with a range of some 7,000 kilometres, came down near the Solomon Islands, drawing swift condemnation from Washington even as global attention remains fixed on the war between Israel and Iran. Analysts see the test as a show of strength aimed at multiple audiences at once: Pacific nations wary of Beijing's growing influence, a United States whose alliances in the region are under strain, and a domestic military establishment as Xi Jinping approaches a pivotal moment in his leadership. The launch also comes as Chinese and Russian naval forces hold joint exercises off Qingdao, feeding into wider concerns about deepening military cooperation between the two powers. Submarine missile test puts China's Pacific ambitions on display In this edition of International Report, RFI speaks to China specialist Michael Dillon of King's College London and Clive Hamilton, author of Hidden Hand, about what the test reveals, and what it means for the balance of power in the Pacific.

  5. Jul 10

    Israel's recognition of the Armenian genocide unsettles Turkey and Azerbaijan

    Israel's government voted on 28 June to recognise the 1915 Armenian genocide, breaking with decades of official reticence on the issue. RFI spoke to three regional experts to unpack the politics behind the vote and its fallout: Gerald Steinberg, professor at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv; Richard Giragossian, director of the Regional Studies Centre in Yerevan; and Ilter Turan, professor at Bilgi University in Istanbul. Israel's belated recognition of the Armenian genocide illustrates its deteriorating relationship with Turkey, rather than a reassessment of history, as the real driver behind the timing. Ankara's hosting of Hamas officials and its criticism of Israel's conduct in Gaza are seen as the backdrop, with the decision viewed in Israeli policy circles as a rebuke to Turkey. In Yerevan too, the recognition has been met with scepticism, seen as overdue and politically motivated. Still, it is regarded as setting a precedent that will be difficult for any future Israeli government to reverse. As the move triggered a sharp deterioration in Israel-Azerbaijan relations, the question arises: did Israel score an own goal?

  6. Jul 5

    Summit host Turkey eyes major weapons deals with NATO allies

    Next week's NATO Summit in Ankara is expected to showcase Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rising influence within the alliance, as he aims to use the gathering to overcome resistance to crucial arms deals and highlight the rapid growth of Turkey’s defence industry. Boasting NATO’s second-largest army and sharing borders with flashpoints from Ukraine to the Middle East, Turkey is at the heart of the alliance’s future amid doubts about the United States' commitment to European defence. “It is a paradigm shift,” says international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. With European and North American leaders attending the summit, on 7 and 8 July, Bagci predicts Erdogan will use the opportunity to cement Turkey’s pivotal role.  “The NATO summit will be a good instrument for Erdogan to show Turkish domestic politics, as well as international politics, that he is one of the medium-power leaders in the world with whom you have to deal." Europe, Asia driving surge in global military spending: report Defence deals Major arms deals are expected to make headlines at the summit. US President Donald Trump – attending out of what he calls respect for Erdogan – is not likely to come empty-handed. "The administration is eager to deliver something to Erdogan," says Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a US-based think tank. Trump and Erdogan are expected to sign a $700 million deal for the sale of around 80 GE F-110 fighter jet engines. The sale would be a major breakthrough for Ankara in its ambitious Fifth Generation fighter jet project.  “The Kaan fighter jet, Turkey's domestic fighter, is powered at least in the first iteration by the F-110. And so getting these engines would be important for the development of that fighter,” explained Stein. Ankara is investing billions of euros into the Kaan jet, but without enough engines critics have mockingly called it the world’s priciest glider. Congressional roadblocks, fuelled by influential Israeli and Greek lobbies, have stalled the engine deal, but Trump has vowed to use executive power to push it through. “Turkey has become a domestic political football in the United States, kicked around,” says Stein. “The administration wants to push forward on these agreements and is willing to use leverage to do it." Turkey opposition worries that Europe is sacrificing democracy for security Ankara is also looking to the NATO summit for a breakthrough in its goal to secure the French-Italian SAMP-T anti-missile system. Until now Paris has blocked the sale, but French media has hinted that an agreement could be within reach.  “That would open maybe a new chapter in European-Turkish relations,” says International relations expert Zaur Gasimov of Istanbul’s Turkish German University. “That would bring key European members of NATO – France, Italy – closer to Turkey. And would maybe forge a new core group within NATO." Exclusion from SAFE Ankara is using the summit to spotlight Turkey’s booming defence industry, showcasing its cutting-edge weaponry and highly coveted drones, used in conflicts from Ukraine to Africa. “Turkey has quite a developed field of drone production, which is of paramount importance in modern types of warfare,” explains Gasimov. “So all that makes Turkey a very, very special member of NATO from the point of view of European leaders." However, Turkish arms sales to Europe face a major hurdle: exclusion from the EU’s €150 billion Safety and Assistance for Europe (SAFE) arms procurement programme. EU members Greece and Cyprus continue to block Turkey’s participation in SAFE due to unresolved disputes in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. Turkey expands influence in Africa through military training Bagci predicts Erdogan will use his meeting with European leaders to try to break this deadlock. “SAFE is the grand strategic decision of the European Union, so it cannot be stopped or prevented by such a small country like the southern Republic of Cyprus or Greece. The Greeks and the southern Republic of Cyprus, they have to stop or shut up and not prevent [Turkey’s participation in] SAFE," he says.  Turkey is the only country that recognises the Turkish Cypriot administration in Northern Cyprus, refusing to recognise the Republic of Cyprus as the sole sovereign administrator of the island, as international law does.

  7. Jun 27

    Turkey opposition worries that Europe is sacrificing democracy for security

    Turkey's main opposition says its Western allies are failing to respond as a widening crackdown by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government targets its leaders and elected mayors. The latest arrests this week followed a court decision to remove Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel and reinstate former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in an unprecedented move that was widely condemned by Turkish and international human rights groups. The European Union's response has been far more restrained. "There are some visits, there are some letters sent to us," said Ilhan Uzgel, the CHP's former deputy chair. "There are some public statements regarding the situation in Turkey, but the wording and language used is quite mild. [There's] no action." The CHP has faced more than a year of arrests targeting its mayors on corruption charges. This week, two more were detained, adding to a list that already includes jailed Istanbul mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu. HRW denounces Turkey arrests ahead of NATO summit Strategic partner Uzgel said the European Union can no longer stand by and should take a firmer stance. "Mr Erdogan has to be told, 'you're destroying democracy and what you're doing is against the rule of law,'" said Uzgel. "There could be some kind of a diplomatic isolation," he added. "So whenever Mr Erdogan meets a foreign leader, he's selling it to his own audience, the Turkish public, that he's a world leader. At least this opportunity could be taken from his hand." Yet Erdogan is expected to reinforce his international standing at next month's Nato summit in Ankara. "The two big allies of Turkey have decided not to make human rights an issue in the bilateral relationship," said Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. She notes that the EU and Washington have found rare common ground over Turkey. "For President Trump, this comes naturally; he doesn't care about human rights advancement globally," she said. "But now Europeans are also looking for some type of functional relationship with Turkey and wanting to disregard human rights as an impediment to bilateral relations." Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner Federico Donelli, an international relations expert at the University of Trieste, said the European Union's restrained response reflected Turkey's growing strategic importance. "The restraint of EU reaction is closely linked to an increase in recognition of Turkey's structural importance for European security." With Nato's second-largest army and a rapidly expanding defence industry, Turkey is increasingly seen as an important security partner as Europe faces the threat from Russia and uncertainty over the United States' long-term commitment. "The US is definitely less stable than in the past, so in this context Turkey is increasingly seen less as a [EU] candidate country and more as a strategic partner," said Donelli. Pressure on Greece and Cyprus Donelli said this shift could increase pressure on Greece and Cyprus, which have long used their vetoes to slow closer EU defence ties with Turkey because of disputes in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean. "We know how much the two countries have conditioned EU-Turkey relations for many years," said Donelli. "These two countries cannot constrain broader EU strategic choices in the next few years, in the next decade." Amid the Russian threat and uncertainty over America's resolve, Turkey's opposition worries it is being sacrificed in the name of Europe's security.  "Historically, Turkish EU relations were working for the democratisation of Turkey, but the equation has been reversed. The EU-Turkey ties have been working against Turkey's democratisation," said Uzgel. "The closer Mr Erdogan gets to the EU, [the more] we are losing democracy in Turkey." He nonetheless warned that Europe's approach is short-sighted and could have wider consequences. "Turkey is a country of 86 million, so if democracy fails here, it has to have some implications for other countries as well."

  8. Jun 26

    Brexit at 10: What price has the UK paid for 'taking back control'?

    Ten years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, Brexit supporters still see this as a historic act of sovereignty, while critics point to the resulting economic damage and political division.  This week RFI examines the legacy of the 2016 Brexit referendum through the sharply contrasting views of three analysts: Federico Fabbrini of the Brexit Institute in Dublin, Robert Oulds of the London-based pro-Brexit Bruges Group, and John Barry of Queen’s University Belfast. Their assessment reveals a country still deeply divided over what Brexit has achieved, what it has cost and what it means for the UK's future relationship with Europe. For Brexit supporters, the desired "control" has been achieved. For its opponents, the economic consequences and divided political landscape loom ever larger.  Between those positions lies a complex reality shaped by trade, immigration, Northern Ireland and the much vaunted idea of “Global Britain”.

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RFI goes behind-the-scenes of one of the week's major stories.

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  • Creator
    RFI English
  • Years Active
    2017 - 2026
  • Episodes
    33
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    © Radio France Internationale
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    International report

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