GAR Capital Podcast

Carlos Garcia

The official GAR Capital Podcast, hosted by Carlos Garcia. Weekly market recaps and real-time analysis covering stocks, futures, commodities, forex, and macroeconomic trends. Designed for active traders and investors looking to understand market volatility, earnings, Federal Reserve policy, and global headlines — with practical insights, technical levels, and forward-looking strategy.

  1. 1d ago

    Oil Breaks $100 as Hyperscalers Crack | The Three Horsemen Hit Markets

    (AI Narrated) This episode of the GAR Capital Podcast is sponsored by GAR Labs and its custom trading system development services. Have a trading strategy you want to bring to life? GAR Labs can help get your project off the ground with a custom built system designed around your trading style, objectives, and risk tolerance. Visit gar.capital to learn more. In today’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we examine the three major forces pressuring markets: Brent crude breaking above $100, Alphabet exposing the financial burden of artificial intelligence spending, and the return of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening expectations. We break down how Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers created a two chokepoint problem across the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, why Dated Brent moved into extreme backwardation, and how Murban crude surged toward $108 as global inventories remain depleted. The episode also explains why the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at next week’s meeting moved toward 38 percent, how the two year Treasury yield and thirty year real yield surged, and why the Japanese yen fell to its weakest level since 1986. Within equities, we examine Alphabet’s capital expenditure outlook approaching $205 billion, negative free cash flow, declining operating cash flow, disappearing buybacks, and rising hyperscaler credit risk. We also cover Tesla’s sharp decline after disappointing margins and earnings, the Magnificent Seven’s worst session since April 2025, the divergence between semiconductor companies receiving AI spending and hyperscalers funding it, and the growing risk that one of the major platforms eventually reduces investment. Beyond technology, we discuss the S&P 500 falling below its risk pivot, the possibility of negative dealer gamma, CTA deleveraging, and why August seasonality could produce greater volatility across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Finally, we examine relative strength in healthcare, defense, industrials, and railroads, along with gold’s decline under higher real yields and Bitcoin’s fall below $65,000 despite strong ETF inflows. Follow the GAR Capital Podcast for daily and weekly market intelligence, macro analysis, earnings coverage, and educational commentary designed to help investors better understand today’s financial markets.

    Oil Breaks $100 as Hyperscalers Crack | The Three Horsemen Hit Markets

  2. 2d ago

    Oil Reclaims Control | Alphabet’s AI Raise, Higher Yields, and the Return of Fed Risk

    This episode of the GAR Capital Podcast is sponsored by GAR Labs and its custom trading system development services. Have a trading strategy you want to bring to life? GAR Labs can help get your project off the ground with a custom built system designed around your trading style, objectives, and risk tolerance. Visit gar.capital to learn more. In today’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we examine how an eleventh consecutive night of United States and Iran attacks pushed crude oil to a six week high, lifted Treasury yields, flattened the yield curve, and brought a possible July Federal Reserve rate increase back into the market conversation. We break down why Dated Brent moved above $94, how continued disruption across the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el Mandeb Strait, the Black Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico is creating multiple risks to global energy supply, and why oil options traders are increasingly paying for protection against a larger upside price spike. The episode also examines the reversal of Tuesday’s historic semiconductor and momentum rally. Zero day traders bought puts and sold calls, Mega Cap technology weakened, and much of the prior short squeeze was erased as investors prepared for Alphabet and Tesla earnings. We explore Alphabet’s nearly $50 billion equity raise to fund a major expansion in artificial intelligence infrastructure spending and explain why the market’s AI debate is shifting from demand toward financing, dilution, debt capacity, and future returns on invested capital. Beyond equities, we discuss the two year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since February 2025, the thirty year yield remaining above 5 percent for its longest sustained period since 2007, and why enormous government borrowing and hyperscaler financing requirements are competing for the same long term investors. We also cover Tesla’s revised 2026 targets, strength in IBM and ServiceNow after hours, gold’s gain, Bitcoin’s decline, and the growing risk that bond vigilantes return as fiscal deficits and capital demand keep long term yields elevated. Follow the GAR Capital Podcast for daily and weekly market intelligence, macro analysis, earnings breakdowns, and educational commentary designed to help investors better understand today’s financial markets.

    Oil Reclaims Control | Alphabet’s AI Raise, Higher Yields, and the Return of Fed Risk

  3. 2d ago

    Momentum Strikes Back | Semiconductors Surge as Oil Breaks $90

    (AI Narrated) his episode of the GAR Capital Podcast is sponsored by GAR Labs and its custom trading system development services. Have a trading strategy you want to bring to life? GAR Labs can help get your project off the ground with a custom built system designed around your trading style, objectives, and risk tolerance. Visit gar.capital to learn more. In today’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we examine the historic rebound across semiconductors, artificial intelligence beneficiaries, and high beta momentum stocks ahead of one of the most important Mega Cap earnings weeks of the year. Broad momentum delivered its strongest session in more than five years, technology momentum recorded its best day on record, and Goldman Sachs’ artificial intelligence basket produced its strongest performance since the launch of ChatGPT. We explain why cleaner positioning, aggressive short covering, elevated put demand, and negative dealer gamma created the conditions for such a powerful rebound. The episode also examines why it may still be too early to declare the recent semiconductor correction complete. The group remains below its 50 day moving average, momentum exposure remains elevated on a five year basis, and earnings expectations remain extremely demanding. Beyond equities, we cover Brent crude closing above $90, expanding disruption across the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, rising Treasury yields, higher Federal Reserve rate expectations, and the growing possibility that 5 percent becomes a floor rather than a ceiling for the long bond. We also discuss the renewed strength in the United States dollar, the Japanese yen falling toward 163 per dollar, gold’s rally toward $4,080, and Bitcoin’s move toward $67,000. Finally, we preview Alphabet’s earnings and explain why its full year capital expenditure guidance may determine whether the artificial intelligence rebound becomes sustainable or fades into another round of volatility. Follow the GAR Capital Podcast for daily and weekly market intelligence, macro analysis, earnings breakdowns, and educational commentary designed to help investors better understand today’s financial markets.

    Momentum Strikes Back | Semiconductors Surge as Oil Breaks $90

  4. 4d ago

    Mega-Cap Earnings Take Control | Iran Risk, AI Volatility, and a Market Set Free

    (AI Narrated) This episode of the GAR Capital Podcast is sponsored by GAR Labs and its custom trading system development services. Have a trading strategy you want to bring to life? GAR Labs can help get your project off the ground with a custom-built system designed around your trading style, objectives, and risk tolerance. Visit gar.capital to learn more. In today’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we examine a messy market session shaped by renewed United States-Iran tension, volatile oil prices, rising Treasury yields, shifting options-market dynamics, and anticipation surrounding a major week of Mega-Cap technology earnings. We break down why traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains almost 90 percent below prewar levels, how potential ceasefire discussions briefly pressured oil prices, and why heating oil, gasoil, diesel, and European natural gas remain more important inflation indicators than crude oil alone. The episode also explores the attempted rebound in semiconductors, artificial intelligence stocks, and high-beta momentum following one of the fastest positioning unwinds on record. We explain why reports of Moonshot AI’s Kimi platform running short of computing capacity temporarily strengthened the AI demand narrative, but failed to produce a sustainable semiconductor rally. We also examine how July options expiration reduced positive dealer gamma, leaving the S&P 500 less pinned and potentially more vulnerable to larger directional moves. With Nasdaq volatility elevated and implied stock correlation near multi-decade lows, earnings season is likely to create significant separation between winners and losers. Beyond equities, we discuss rising Treasury yields, mortgage rates above 6.60 percent, the unchanged dollar, gold holding above $4,000, and Bitcoin’s rally beyond $65,500. Finally, we preview the week’s major earnings catalysts and explain why investors will demand more than strong headline results from Google and the other hyperscalers. The market wants evidence that artificial intelligence spending can generate durable revenue, margins, free cash flow, and acceptable returns on investment. Follow the GAR Capital Podcast for daily and weekly market intelligence, macro analysis, earnings breakdowns, and educational commentary designed to help investors better understand today’s financial markets.

    Mega-Cap Earnings Take Control | Iran Risk, AI Volatility, and a Market Set Free

  5. Jul 17

    The AI Unwind Meets an Energy Shock | Semiconductors Crack as Oil Surges

    (AI Narrated) This episode of the GAR Capital Podcast is sponsored by GAR Labs and its custom trading system development services. Have a trading strategy you want to bring to life? GAR Labs can help get your project off the ground with a system designed around your trading style, objectives, and risk tolerance. Visit gar.capital to learn more. In this week’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we examine how cooler inflation data, resilient economic growth, escalating United States and Iran tensions, and a historic semiconductor unwind reshaped market leadership. We break down why oil posted its strongest weekly gain since the conflict began, how attacks on Gulf infrastructure and threats against the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb increased the risk to global energy flows, and why refined products such as diesel and heating oil remain a larger inflation threat than crude oil alone. The episode also explores the violent rotation out of semiconductors, memory stocks, and crowded artificial intelligence momentum trades. Strong earnings from ASML, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron, and Samsung confirmed that demand remains healthy, yet the stocks continued falling as leverage, options positioning, and crowded ownership overwhelmed fundamentals. We also discuss China’s new Kimi model and why lower cost artificial intelligence systems could force Wall Street to reconsider the expected returns from massive hyperscaler spending. Beyond technology, we examine the strength in equal weighted equities, healthcare, financials, industrials, transports, utilities, and energy. The broader market remains healthier than the Nasdaq suggests, indicating rotation rather than indiscriminate liquidation. We also cover Treasury markets, falling rate hike expectations, the return of bonds as a safe haven, subdued dollar volatility, Bitcoin, gold, and the risk that post expiration market structure could produce larger directional moves. Finally, we preview the most important catalysts ahead, including Google earnings, hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance, Micron and SK Hynix results, refined product prices, and whether the artificial intelligence complex can stabilize after one of its sharpest drawdowns of the cycle. If you enjoy institutional quality market intelligence, follow the GAR Capital Podcast for daily and weekly macro analysis, market breakdowns, and educational content designed to help investors better understand today’s markets.

    The AI Unwind Meets an Energy Shock | Semiconductors Crack as Oil Surges

  6. Jul 16

    Strong Earnings, Weak Stocks | Why the Semiconductor Trade Keeps Breaking

    (AI Narrated) This episode of the GAR Capital Podcast is sponsored by GAR Labs and its custom trading system development services. Have a trading strategy you want to bring to life? GAR Labs can help get your project off the ground with a system built around your specific trading style, objectives, and risk tolerance. Visit gar.capital to learn more. In today’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we examine why Taiwan Semiconductor delivered record profits, stronger guidance, and plans for up to 265 billion dollars of United States investment, yet semiconductor and memory stocks continued falling. We explain why recent results from Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, Micron, and Samsung confirm that artificial intelligence demand remains strong, while the market reaction suggests positioning, leverage, and momentum are currently more important than fundamentals. The episode also breaks down the semiconductor complex entering bear market territory, the ongoing rotation into Mega Cap technology, the collapse in high beta momentum, and why crowded artificial intelligence trades can continue falling even when earnings remain exceptional. Beyond technology, we cover stronger retail sales, resilient jobless claims, the surge in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey, and why Goldman Sachs raised its second quarter growth estimate to 2.4 percent. We also discuss Treasury yields remaining above critical levels, the Federal Reserve keeping September tightening in play, renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz, firm refined product prices, strength in healthcare earnings, gold falling below 4,000 dollars, and Bitcoin finding support near 64,000 dollars. Finally, we explain why hyperscaler earnings may become the next major stabilizing force for semiconductor stocks and what investors should watch to determine whether the current selloff is approaching exhaustion or beginning another leg lower. If you enjoy institutional quality market intelligence, follow the GAR Capital Podcast for daily and weekly macro analysis, market breakdowns, and educational content designed to help investors better understand today’s markets.

    Strong Earnings, Weak Stocks | Why the Semiconductor Trade Keeps Breaking

  7. Jul 15

    Cooling Inflation, Changing Leadership | Mega Cap Tech Takes Control

    (AI Narrated) This episode of the GAR Capital Podcast is sponsored by GAR Labs and its custom trading system development services. Have a trading strategy you want to bring to life? GAR Labs can help get your project off the ground with a system built around your specific trading style, objectives, and risk tolerance. Project Friday delivered a perfect five for five session today, producing a 100 percent hit rate across SPY, QQQ, NVDA, and AMD puts, along with META calls. Every position was opened and closed during the same trading session, with timestamped entries, exits, and updates provided throughout the day. Visit gar.capital to learn more. In today’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we examine why another cooler inflation report reduced Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, pushed Treasury yields lower, weakened the United States dollar, and supported Mega Cap technology. We break down the June Producer Price Index report, Kevin Warsh’s continued hawkish message, and why markets now view a July rate increase as highly unlikely while keeping September in play. The episode also explores the ongoing rotation from semiconductors and memory stocks into Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and other Mega Cap technology companies. Investors still want exposure to artificial intelligence, but they increasingly prefer stronger balance sheets, better liquidity, and more stable free cash flow after an extraordinary run across the semiconductor complex. We also examine why zero day options flows helped drive the afternoon rebound, why institutional selling remained elevated despite higher indices, and what extremely light trading volume reveals about the conviction behind the market’s move. Beyond equities, we cover renewed United States and Iran military tension, the importance of refined fuel markets for inflation, strength across major financial companies, the weaker dollar, gold’s muted reaction, and Bitcoin’s rally toward 65,500 dollars. Finally, we explain why earnings guidance and positioning may matter more than headline earnings results as the market enters the heart of second quarter reporting season. If you enjoy institutional quality market intelligence, follow the GAR Capital Podcast for daily and weekly macro analysis, market breakdowns, and educational content designed to help investors better understand today’s markets.

    Cooling Inflation, Changing Leadership | Mega Cap Tech Takes Control

  8. Jul 14

    Cooler Inflation, Hotter Markets | CPI Falls as Banks and AI Take Control

    (AI Narrated) Markets absorbed a major inflation surprise, record bank earnings, renewed Middle East tension, a dramatic IBM collapse, and another hawkish message from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. In today’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we break down why June CPI declined 0.4 percent from the prior month, how annual inflation slowed to 3.5 percent, and why the report immediately reduced expectations for a July interest rate increase. We also examine Kevin Warsh’s testimony and explain why the Federal Reserve remains cautious despite the cooler inflation data. Markets received breathing room, but policymakers are not declaring victory over inflation. The episode includes a complete breakdown of major bank earnings from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup. Record trading and investment banking results supported financial stocks, but individual reactions showed that expectations remain extremely high. We also examine IBM’s historic decline and why enterprise spending may be shifting away from traditional software toward artificial intelligence hardware, data centers, memory, and infrastructure. This rotation could define the next phase of the technology cycle. Beyond equities, we cover renewed tension near the Strait of Hormuz, why refined fuel prices remain more important for inflation than crude alone, the decline in Treasury yields, the weaker United States dollar, gold’s rebound above 4,000 dollars, and Bitcoin’s surge toward 65,000 dollars. Finally, we discuss the poor market breadth beneath stronger Mega Cap technology performance and why light trading volume may be masking continued caution from long only institutional investors.

    Cooler Inflation, Hotter Markets | CPI Falls as Banks and AI Take Control
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Trailer

5
out of 5
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About

The official GAR Capital Podcast, hosted by Carlos Garcia. Weekly market recaps and real-time analysis covering stocks, futures, commodities, forex, and macroeconomic trends. Designed for active traders and investors looking to understand market volatility, earnings, Federal Reserve policy, and global headlines — with practical insights, technical levels, and forward-looking strategy.

Information

  • Creator
    Carlos Garcia
  • Years Active
    2017 - 2026
  • Episodes
    152
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Carlos Garcia
  • Show Website
    GAR Capital Podcast

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