Ep 381: Warning- Property investors should ignore the last 5 years of data

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In this episode, Stuart explains why property investors need to be cautious when relying on the last five years of price data. He outlines how this period has been shaped by a series of unique, disruptive events: surging construction costs, extreme interest rate movements, volatile migration patterns, and the rise of working from home. While these factors have significantly impacted prices, they don’t reflect long-term fundamentals and may not be repeated.

Stuart explores how elevated construction costs have distorted growth in certain markets, particularly where building value outweighs land value. He also explains how changing borrowing capacity and RBA interventions have shifted investor behaviour and redirected capital to more affordable regions, trends that may not be permanent. With overseas migration and remote work patterns still evolving, Stuart argues that recent market movements are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

He also warns against the explosion of data-driven buyers’ agents who lean heavily on short-term trends, questioning the quality and applicability of much of the property data being used. For investors looking to make smart, evidence-based decisions, Stuart makes the case for focusing on 20+ years of data and understanding the fundamentals that truly drive long-term growth. A timely, clear-eyed episode.

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This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.