Special: From 11% to 8.4% - What the 2026 Budget does to property investment returns

This special episode is a replay of a YouTube presentation which is a calm, numbers-led walkthrough of the 2026 Federal Budget - recorded roughly 40 hours after budget night - focused on the three proposals most likely to affect investors: negative gearing, capital gains tax, and family trusts. The deliberate frame throughout is that nothing is law yet, the political debate is far from settled, and listeners should resist making 20-year decisions on 40-hour-old announcements.

On negative gearing, you and Mena explain that existing properties are grandfathered, with a transitionary window to 1 July 2027 and carve-outs for new builds, commercial property and shares. The modelling is sobering: combining the proposed loss of negative gearing with the higher CGT cuts the after-tax internal rate of return on a typical investment-grade property from around 11% to 8.4% - a 24% drop - raising the question of whether direct residential property still compensates for its risks compared with superannuation.

On CGT, a minimum 30% rate (or an indexation method) applies across all asset classes from 1 July 2027, with cost-base resets, pre-1985 assets and the maths of indexation versus the old 50% discount worked through in detail.

On family trusts, the proposed flat 30% rate on distributions, combined with the loss of franking credit flow-through via corporate beneficiaries, could push effective tax on retained business earnings as high as 60% - the change you both flag as most likely to be wound back.

Other angles include why new house-and-land packages remain a poor investment despite their tax appeal, the likely (modest) aggregate impact on prices and rents, the 15–20% hit to borrowing capacity, bank credit-policy uncertainty, and why the family home and super become even more central wealth vehicles.

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This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.