Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford

Baillie Gifford
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Baillie Gifford’s Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking bring valuable insights into the benefits of taking the long view. You’ll hear frank, thought-provoking opinions from our team in Edinburgh and experts around the world. These podcasts do not constitute an offer of or solicitation for purchase or sale of securities or provision of any investment services. They are provided for information only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Our podcasts have been compiled with considerable care to ensure their accuracy at the date of publication. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to their accuracy or completeness. For further details please see our legal information at www.bailliegifford.com

  1. 4D AGO

    China’s new growth leaders: inventing, not copying

    From new cancer drugs to batteries and robotics – China’s top-tier growth companies are forging paths of their own rather than following in the west’s footsteps. Investment manager Sophie Earnshaw names companies that have caught her eye and explains why being a long-term stock picker differs in China from elsewhere.   Background: Sophie Earnshaw is a decision-maker on our China Equities Strategy and joint manager of the Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust.   In this conversation, she tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about a select group of Chinese companies breaking new ground, supported by the state’s efforts to become self-sufficient in more of today’s critical technologies and a leader in some of those of the future.   Earnshaw also details how the “phenomenal rate” at which companies are born, scale and die in the country makes stock-picking a challenging task – making the access we have to company leaders, academics and other local expertise core to our mission of finding the best firms to invest in on behalf of our clients.   Portfolio companies discussed include: - CATL – the battery maker whose products power electric vehicles worldwide and increasingly support the renewable energy sector - BeOne and Innovent Biologics – pharmaceutical firms developing the next generation of cancer drugs - AMEC and NAURA – semiconductor equipment makers enabling China to develop increased self-reliance in computer chips - Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent – China’s ‘big tech’ companies, whose artificial intelligence tools are becoming embedded into people’s daily lives - MiniMax – the AI startup rolling out video and agentic tools at a fraction of the cost of western counterparts - Horizon Robotics – the automated driving tech provider with its eye on an even bigger opportunity.   Resources: Baillie Gifford podcasts China: a tale of two stories China investment strategy hub (institutional clients only) House of Huawei Private investor forum 2025: investing in great growth companies Trip notes: on the road with Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust     Companies mentioned include: Alibaba AMEC ASML BeOne ByteDance CATL Horizon Robotics Innovent Biologics Jiangsu Hengrui Huawei MiniMax Samsung NAURA Tencent TSMC Xiaohongshu   Timecodes: 00:00  Introduction 01:55   Joining the China Equities Strategy 02:40  Intense competition 04:00  The government’s influence 06:10   CATL, the electrification champion 08:45  Investing with a 5-year time horizon 10:25   Shanghai office, local expertise 11:45   Regulations and geopolitics 14:30   China’s next Five-year Plan 16:15   Innovent Biologics’ new cancer drugs 18:10   Lower-cost clinical trials 19:45   Being selective in semiconductors 21:25   Investing in chip equipment makers 23:00  China’s ‘big tech and AI’ 25:10   MiniMax making AI like ‘tap water’ 27:45  The road to robotics 29:35  A market you can’t ignore 30:30  Book choice   Glossary of terms (in order of mention):   Third plenum: a major policy meeting of China’s ruling Communist Party, often used to set big economic/political direction. Sovereign bond issuance: The government raising money by selling bonds (IOUs) to investors. Opportunity set: the range of investable companies available to choose from. Capex: capital expenditure – money spent on long-term assets like factories, equipment, or data centres. Fiscal deficit target: how much more the government plans to spend than it collects in revenue (taxes plus other income), expressed as a share of the economy. GDP: gross domestic product – the total value of goods and services a country produces in a year. Market capitalisation: the total value of a company’s shares (share price × number of shares). ESG: environmental, social and governance – how a company manages environmental impact, people issues, and corporate oversight. Large-form batteries: big battery packs used in things like electric vehicles and grid storage. Energy storage systems: large batteries that store electricity for later use (helping balance the grid). Generic drugs: copies of medicines whose patents have expired; usually cheaper, same active ingredient. Bi-specific (bispecific) drugs: drugs designed to bind to two targets at once (often to direct immune cells to cancer). ADC drugs: antibody–drug conjugates – antibodies that deliver a toxic payload to cancer cells. Out-licensing: selling rights to your drug/technology to another company (often for upfront + milestone payments). EUV machines: extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment used to make the most advanced chips. Foundry: a factory business that manufactures chips for other companies. Etch and deposition: steps in chipmaking – etch removes material to form patterns, deposition adds thin layers. Picks and shovels: a metaphor for companies that sell essential tools to an industry (rather than end products). Digitalisation: moving processes and services from offline to software and data-driven systems. Compute: the processing power (chips and servers) used to train/run AI. Large language model (LLM): an AI trained on lots of text to generate and understand language. Margins: how much profit a company makes per pound/dollar of revenue (after costs). Cloud business: selling computing power/storage/software over the internet instead of on a local machine. Algorithm layer: the method or software logic that makes the AI work (as distinct from the hardware). Gross margin: revenue minus direct costs (before overheads), a rough measure of product profitability. Assisted driving: features that help a driver (lane-keeping, adaptive cruise control, etc) but don’t fully replace them. Autonomous driving: a car driving itself with minimal or no human input. Software attachment rate: the percentage of customers who add paid software features and/or subscriptions.

    32 min

  2. JAN 14

    Smarter models, sharper founders: growth investing in the AI era

    With developments in generative AI progressing at such a furious pace, how can investors cut through the noise to identify the companies that will really matter? Baillie Gifford’s Kyle McEnery shares his approach to meeting the entrepreneurs building the future – including his encounters with AppLovin, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Roblox and Reddit.   Background: Kyle McEnery is an investment manager in our Long Term Global Growth Team (LTGG) and previously led Baillie Gifford’s Artificial Intelligence Research Project.   In this conversation, he tells host Leo Kelion why AI’s ever-increasing capabilities make this one of the most exciting times to be a growth investor, and how leadership and culture act as signals in the noise to help identify companies with the greatest long-term growth potential.   In addition to discussing which of the firms enabling and using today’s language-based ‘frontier’ AI models are leading the pack, he explains how efforts to understand and simulate real-world physics could unlock further progress.   Portfolio companies discussed include: Anthropic – developer of the Claude AI models, which excel at coding, among other tasks. NVIDIA – the semiconductors firm whose accelerator chips are powering many of the advances in generative AI. Roblox – the video games platform whose Cube 3D technology allows creators to build objects and environments out of text-based descriptions. AppLovin – the ad-tech company whose AI-first strategy keeps the business lean and nimble. Reddit – the online discussion forum, whose authentic human conversations are gaining in value as a counterpoint to AI-generated output.   Resources: AI and the future of everything: a long-term perspective Anthropic: why we are backing the AI frontrunner Long Term Global Growth Strategy (institutional investors only) LTGG philosophy and process (institutional investors only) Private companies: from Anthropic to Zetwerk The forge of intelligence: exploring the rise of physical AI Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub   Companies mentioned include: Alphabet/Google Amazon Anthropic AppLovin Horizon Robotics NVIDIA Reddit Roblox Tesla     Timecodes: 00:00  Introduction – Dartmouth College’s artificial intelligence workshop 01:50   From quantum to AI via asset management 02:50  Creating and then culling a machine-learning initiative 08:05  ChatGPT’s wake-up call 10:35   Exceptional companies at the dawn of generative AI 12:10   Anthropic’s appeal to business customers 14:55   A winner-takes-all opportunity? 17:05   Dario Amodei and the scaling laws 19:10  NVIDIA’s foundational role in neural networks 22:55  Making video game items in Roblox with AI 25:00  AppLovin – a company built for the next era 26:55  Reddit’s valuable conversational communities 29:35  World models, spatial AI and the physical world 32:35  Staying open-minded and humble 33:35  Book choice     Glossary of terms (in order of mention):   Generative AI: AI systems that create new content such as text, images or code rather than just analysing data. Machine learning: AI techniques where systems learn patterns from data rather than being explicitly programmed. End-to-end, systematic (investment strategy): Fully automated, with decisions made by predefined rules rather than human judgement. Agentic AI: AI systems that can plan and carry out tasks autonomously rather than just responding to prompts. R&D: Research and development. GPT: OpenAI’s models, which power its ChatGPT chatbot. Natural language processing: AI that enables computers to understand and generate human language. Token: A chunk of text, such as a word or part of a word, used by language models. Foundation models: Large AI models that can handle a wide variety of tasks. Know your customer (KYC): Financial checks used by banks to verify customers’ identities and risks. Scaling laws: The idea that AI performance improves predictably as models, data and computing power increase. Compute: The processing power required to train and run AI models. Jevons’ paradox: The counterintuitive idea that efficiency gains can increase, rather than reduce, overall usage. CUDA: NVIDIA’s software platform for programming its chips for high-performance computing. Jensen: Jensen Huang, NVIDIA’s co-founder and chief executive. Metaverse: Shared virtual worlds where people interact, create and play online. Large language models (LLMs): AI systems trained on vast amounts of text to understand and generate language. Multimodal models: AI systems that can process multiple types of data, such as text, images and video. World models: AI systems that learn how the physical world works in order to predict and simulate it. Embodied AI: AI that learns through physical interaction with the real world, such as robots or vehicles. Imitation learning: Training AI by having it copy actions demonstrated by humans.

    36 min

  3. 12/16/2025

    Emerging market companies leapfrogging western rivals

    From Pony.ai launching a robo-taxi service during a Shanghai storm to E Ink revolutionising the way supermarkets label their shelves – emerging market companies are in many cases leapfrogging western counterparts. In this episode, investment manager Alice Stretch reveals to host Leo Kelion some of the most disruptive companies innovating at speed in Asia and Latin America.   Background: Alice Stretch is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, she explores some of the growth companies in her portfolios turning constraints to their advantage and reducing friction in their customers’ lives.   Companies discussed include:   PolicyBazaar – the Indian insurance platform making it easier for people to protect themselves against life’s financial shocks. Nubank – the Brazilian digital lender extending access to banking and credit. Meituan – the food delivery and local services app extending its reach beyond China. MercadoLibre – the Latin American ecommerce and fintech giant expanding into advertising. Mobile World – the Vietnamese conglomerate that has expanded from mobile phones to competitively priced groceries. Sea Ltd – the Singaporean gaming, shopping and fintech group eyeing the possibilities of agentic AI. TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) – the world’s leading chip manufacturer. E Ink – the Taiwanese e-paper pioneer building on its ebook success to provide supermarkets with updateable price tags and marketers with low-power digital billboards. Pony.ai – the first driverless car company to offer a robo-taxi service in four of China’s most populous cities.   Resources: Disruption Week Emerging markets: how we do what we do Emerging markets: from imitators to innovators Emerging markets: the next engines of growth (podcast) Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world Imec Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub   Companies mentioned include: Amazon ByteDance Chroma E Ink MercadoLibre Mobile World Meituan Nubank NVIDIA PolicyBazaar Pony.ai Sea Ltd Stellantis TSMC   Timecodes: 00:00  Introduction – Pony.ai takes to Shanghai’s roads 02:00  The imitators become the innovators 05:10   How PolicyBazaar benefits from not being locked into a legacy system 07:10   Nubank: reducing friction while expanding access to banking and credit 09:25  MercadoLibre’s multi-act expansion leads it to advertising technology 10:25   Mobile World’s move from selling handsets to groceries 11:50   Ways Sea Ltd developed capabilities while operating under constraints 13:45   Sea CEO Forrest Li’s ability to adapt and pivot 15:25   Taking the long-term view and a generalist approach 17:30   Studying the semiconductor industry with the help of Imec and TSMC 19:45   Investing in Chroma and E Ink in Taiwan 21:10   Walmart and other supermarkets adopt E Ink’s updateable price labels 22:45  The case for investing in Pony.ai as a long-term growth investor 24:10   Pony.ai’s cost advantage and international partnerships 25:55  Taking macroeconomic and geopolitical risk into account 27:15   Putting deep knowledge and research to our clients’ advantage

    28 min

  4. 12/01/2025

    Private companies: from Anthropic to Zetwerk – and other new investments

    AI lab Anthropic, digital bank Revolut, Chinese social network Xiaohongshu and supply chain specialist Zetwerk count among Baillie Gifford’s most recent private growth company investments. These bold pioneers are part of an expanding asset class, representing some of the world’s fastest growing and most disruptive businesses. Investment manager Robert Natzler tells host Leo Kelion how and why we backed them on behalf of our clients.   Background:  Robert Natzler is an investment manager on our Private Companies Team and deputy manager of The Schiehallion Fund.   In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, he brings you up to date on his team’s recent activity, bringing our tally of private company investments to more than 160, with a total value of over $10bn.  Companies discussed include:  Mottu – the motorcycle rental and service provider, serving gig workers and others in Latin America.  Revolut – the digital bank that has surpassed HSBC and other traditional lenders in terms of its customer count.  Anthropic – the frontier AI lab behind the chatbot and coding champion Claude.  Xiaohongshu – the Chinese social network, also known as RedNote, with a strong and growing following, especially among young women.  Zetwerk – the outsourcing specialist giving western brands and manufacturers the ability to broaden their supply chains beyond China.  Resources: About Robert Natzler  Disruption Week  From code to culture: private companies shaping the world  Private Companies Team  Private growth: looking over the overlooked  Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub  Why we are backing Anthropic    Companies mentioned include:  Anthropic  ByteDance  Mottu  Revolut  Xiaohongshu (RedNote)  Zetwerk    Timecodes:  00:00 Introduction – Mottu CEO Rubens Zanelatto’s masterstroke  02:20 Investing in ‘real’ companies with ambitious leaders  05:20 Helping growth-stage companies prepare to go public  08:35 Exceptional companies in California and beyond  09:55 Mottu: providing motorcycles and maintenance to an underserved segment  13:10 Revolut: pursuing a different playbook to traditional banks  16:35 Gaining conviction in AI lab Anthropic  23:40 Dario Amodei’s appeal to other AI talent  24:30 Xiaohongshu (RedNote)’s popularity among women in China’s wealthiest cities  26:25 Zetwerk: expanding access to factories around the world  28:37 How Baillie Gifford clients can access private companies  29:35 Taking a global perspective on private companies

    32 min

  5. 10/23/2025

    Where obsession meets opportunity: Japan’s ‘overlooked’ small caps

    From using AI to create better weather forecasts to helping people with disabilities get their dream job, Japan’s small companies are a disruptive force.

    32 min

  6. 09/16/2025

    Beyond the benchmark: Baillie Gifford CEO on why being different pays off

    “If you’re trying to find the very best growth businesses on the planet – a benchmark isn’t a sensible place to start.” Baillie Gifford’s chief executive Tim Campbell explains the advantages of our style of active investing, the importance of long-termism and how AI fits into our process.   Background: In April, Tim Campbell became Baillie Gifford’s chief executive and one of its managing partners. Earlier in his career, he was an investment manager before switching to Client Services, where he led our Emerging Markets Clients Team. In this podcast, he explores how our investment teams adopted a conviction-led approach that centres on each company's merits, regardless of its weighting in benchmark stock indices. He describes what we mean by long-termism and the importance of having the right incentives in place. And he explains why being “out of step” with some market trends helps us serve both society and our clients’ interests. The second half of the show focuses on changes afoot, ranging from further private company investments – including a recent holding in AI lab Anthropic – to our own adoption of artificial intelligence technologies and an exploration of new ways to access our strategies.   Resources: Baillie Gifford: Actual investors Disruption Week Drayton and Mackenzie One Useful Thing: Ethan Mollick’s blog Our history Private company investments Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking The Friction Project   Companies mentioned include: Anthropic Amazon MercadoLibre NVIDIA Runway AI Timecodes 00:00 Introduction 02:10 From music in the Middle East to investing in Edinburgh 03:15 Making the move to Client Services 05:00 Rewriting the investment playbook 06:30 Client hunger for benchmark agnosticism 07:40 Active versus passive investing 10:20 A mutual understanding with clients 11:55 Drawdowns and hold discipline 14:30 Defining long-termism 17:00 Private company investments 19:30 Investing in Anthropic and Runway AI 24:55 ‘The mission doesn’t change’ 27:35 Book choice

  7. 08/15/2025

    Skin in the game: the hidden power of persistence

    Inside ownership can give companies an advantage when it comes to long-term growth. That includes having a leader or family with a substantial stake in the business. And it also covers firms with farsighted backers, such as philanthropic foundations, which encourage management to take the long view. From airline Ryanair to hearing aid specialist Demant, investment manager Jenny Davis explores how having skin in the game drives firms to act with persistence.   Background: Jenny Davis is a Baillie Gifford partner and an investment manager in our International Alpha Team. She specialises in companies based outside the US that offer ‘quality growth’ – combining the potential for outperformance with durability. In this podcast, she explores how persistent, inside ownership works to the advantage of companies she has backed. Examples include firms with founders who have retained a significant stake, those with long-serving hired leaders rewarded with shares and other long-term incentives, companies with family owners where control has passed between generations, and businesses backed by a foundation or holding company with long-term objectives. Companies covered include: Discovery – the health insurer that has gone global, using data to nudge customers into improving their fitness. Ryanair – the European airline that benefited from its chief executive’s obsession with controlling costs. Technoprobe – the family-run ‘probe card’ specialist whose ability to spot faults in computer chips has kept pace with semiconductors’ increasing complexity. Demant – the hearing aid specialist backed by a charitable foundation, which has invested in getting closer to its customers. Scout24 – the German property portal whose independence Baillie Gifford helped preserve, allowing it to pursue a successful long-term growth strategy. Resources:  Baillie Gifford A new age of discovery: the case for international (restricted to certain clients) Pioneers: 8 Principles of Business Longevity from Immigrant Entrepreneurs Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking     Companies mentioned include: Demant Discovery Ltd Ferrari Hermès Investor AB LVMH Novo Nordisk Richemont Ryanair Scout24 Shimano Technoprobe TSMC Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:55  The “scenic route” to asset management 03:00  Focusing on quality growth 04:35  Persistence’s enduring edge 05:45  Different types of inside ownership 06:30 Discovery’s healthy nudges 08:10  Adrian Gore’s visionary leadership 09:45  How Michael O’Leary turbocharged Ryanair 12:45  Ryanair’s scale advantage 14:00  Technoprobe’s family leadership 16:25  Engaging with Richemont’s Johan Rupert 18:30  Demant’s long-term philanthropic backer 20:55  Providing persistence’s benefits to Scout24 22:55  Selling out of Credit Suisse 24:30  Persistence and alignment 26:10  Book choice

    30 min

  8. 07/16/2025

    The ‘invisible’ millions: banking’s new frontier

    From microloans for farmers to free savings accounts for the ‘unbanked’ to customised insurance for gig workers to a cheaper, faster way for migrants to send money to loved ones: a growing range of services is helping many of the world’s least advantaged citizens increase their financial resilience. Previously, banks and other traditional lending institutions overlooked these customers. But as impact director Ed Whitten explains, by backing the companies now involved, you have an opportunity to improve people’s lives and achieve strong growth.   Background: Ed Whitten is an impact director in Baillie Gifford’s Positive Change Strategy. Its dual objective is to provide our clients with attractive returns while contributing to a more inclusive, healthy world. Whitten’s role is to ensure that the companies it holds fulfil the second part of that pledge.   In this episode, he explores the topic of financial inclusion, explaining why the companies involved need to do more than simply provide access to loans, insurance and money transfers. Topics include how firms can use data and apps to deliver customised services that address specific people’s needs while protecting them from indebtedness. Whitten also explains how conversations with the companies Positive Change backs can nudge them towards better outcomes, such as providing customers with better financial education. And he explores the importance of helping people gain financial resilience against the effects of climate change and other events that could otherwise devastate their livelihoods.   Companies covered include:   Nubank – the digital-only bank used by most Brazilian adults that’s also growing in Mexico and Colombia.   Grab – the south-east Asian ride-hailing and delivery service that provides loans and insurance to drivers and merchants using its platform.   Remitly – the remittance service offering migrants a quick, low-cost and reliable way to transfer money to family and friends.   HDFC Bank – the Indian lender expanding its rural branch network to explain face-to-face how its services can put customers on a better financial path.   Resources: Case study: Maliga Nubank’s Beyond Access study Positive Conversations 2024 The Song of the Cell Trip Notes: Brazil (UK version / Ex-UK version)   Companies mentioned include: Chime Bank Rakyat Indonesia Grab HDFC Bank MercadoLibre Nubank Remitly   Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 02:05  From the British Army to impact investing 03:40  A sustainable, inclusive, healthy world 04:25  The different types of financial inclusion 05:40  Eyes open to the risks of indebtedness 06:45  Volatile repayment rates 07:35  Beyond accessibility: the personalisation of products 09:05  Partnering with CGAP and other development bodies 10:25   Nubank’s Caixinha money boxes 12:45   Nubank’s Mexican banking licence 14:15   Ensuring growth comes with impact 15:20   Grab’s loans and insurance 16:40   Grab’s data-driven approach to risk 19:45   The fast growth of remittances 21:25   Remitly’s cheaper money transfers 22:35  Gaining market share from Western Union 23:40  HDFC Bank’s expanding rural branch network 24:55  Financial inclusion in advanced economies 26:55  The ‘lucrative customers of the future’ 28:15   Book choice

    31 min
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5
out of 5
11 Ratings

About

Baillie Gifford’s Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking bring valuable insights into the benefits of taking the long view. You’ll hear frank, thought-provoking opinions from our team in Edinburgh and experts around the world. These podcasts do not constitute an offer of or solicitation for purchase or sale of securities or provision of any investment services. They are provided for information only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Our podcasts have been compiled with considerable care to ensure their accuracy at the date of publication. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to their accuracy or completeness. For further details please see our legal information at www.bailliegifford.com

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