Notayesmanspodcasts

Notayesmanseconomics

This is my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch era.

  1. Notayesmanspodcast371

    4D AGO

    Notayesmanspodcast371

    This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Full english Hi Shaun....one for the pod. 10yr gilt at 5.03% this morning. I assume you're about to sound the Klaxon. At what level does stuff start to break? Mark Bishop A question for your pod, Shaun: with the 10-year hovering around 5%, should the Bank of England be a buyer, not a seller? sally copper When will the Bank of England be forced to re-start QE or Yield Curve Control? 😋🤪 Actually, I am really wondering which central bank will be the first ... the Fed, the ECB or the Bank of England. Mr B Shaun, do you see the UK govt or a quasi private BAE issue of a private bond paying 6.5% fixed yield long term a special issue to fund the defence budget & nuclear power plants. As a way to fund both much needed areas to save UK ? Morris May With Gilts up 75bps in March, 2/3 base rate hikes priced in, along with the biggest downgrade in growth for the G7 by -0.5%, higher inflation increasing welfare costs and public sector pay demands and energy bill support, how likely are tax rises in autumn budget?erfect storm

    15 min
  2. Notayesmanspodcast370

    MAR 20

    Notayesmanspodcast370

    This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Please explain why that matters, what it means and the factors behind the rise in UK bond yields. A question for Friday. If Trump goes America first later in the year and restricts US LNG exports to keep prices down there, what happens in the EU & UK? Shaun for the podcast this week.....what are the reasons and consequences of the BoE holding at 3.75% this morning, when gilt yields have been surging for a couple of weeks now, and I see the 2yr is at 4.4% this morning! Thank you Sir...... To what extent would a UK base rate rise dampen inflation in the coming months, given that the driver of it is a rise in energy prices caused by a supply-side shock? What other policies might be as or more effective? Somewhat tongue in cheek, when will the Bank of England restart QE or Yield Curve Control? With a swing from -50 bps base rate cut now being replaced by+40 bps expectation this year, how badly will this effect OBR forecasts and hence pressure on RR amid calls for increased defence spending and intervention in household energy bills? Q; Shaun can you explain to listeners that the last inflation rate is just indicating a slowing of the rise and previous inflation does not disappear. Q: 2 How people adjust their spending when oil spikes but long term effect will add to core inflation

    16 min
  3. Notayesmanspodcast369

    MAR 13

    Notayesmanspodcast369

    This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the positive move from UK index-linked bonds. : Are we back to the BoE’s Bailey MPC’s singing around the desk next week Britney’s ‘Oops I’ve done it again ‘and say inflation & oil is ‘Transitory ‘. Pressure on anaemic growth and increased borrowing costs of national debt make for a difficult relationship between Bailey and Rachel Reeves? Also questions on UK hydro output and solar power output.

    10 min
  4. Notayesmanspodcast368

    MAR 6

    Notayesmanspodcast368

    This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the January weakening in UK money supply growth. Q: will 10 year UK Gilt rate hit 5% this time? Given the ECB is 100% to raise rates if this war prolongs, do you think Bailey will abandon QT, raise rates or both? I know you have covered this to an extent in your excellent blog today Is the war against Iran a convenient vehicle for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to blame all her mismanagement of the economy?

    12 min
  5. Notayesmanspodcast367

    FEB 27

    Notayesmanspodcast367

    This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on do you see this UK Gilt market rally continuing or will some form of instability send yields soaring again this year? @FirstSquawk had a headline earlier saying that the Bank of Japan is keeping its bond buying at the same level in March as it was in February. Can you update us on the Bank of Japan's QE or Yield Curve Control programme, thanks. Interesting point about inflation and GDP. Maybe a question for next week...how well do other countries fair when it comes to calculating their inflation and GDP? Does this allow a fair comparison between nations performance?

    12 min
  6. Notayesmanspodcast366

    FEB 20

    Notayesmanspodcast366

    This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on DP is said to have grown only marginally (say 0.1-0.2%), is it possible that in fact it declined, because the ONS understated inflation by a margin greater than the claimed growth? what proportion of the increase in retail sales in the UK, as reported today, is down to gold purchases. Also previous month? What are your views on Robert Jenrick's appointment, Shaun, and in his speech this week? Reforming rather than abolishing the OBR, narrowing the BoE's remit but retaining its independence, reinstating the two-child cap, retaining the triple lock etc

    11 min
  7. Notayesmanspodcast365

    FEB 13

    Notayesmanspodcast365

    This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on I’m beginning to really worry (not sure I’d say fear yet) about stagflation in the UK. Be interested in your thoughts.? Brits spend approx three times as much on food and non alcoholic drinks at home than they do on eating out. So why does the ONS weight restaurants and hotels higher in the inflation basket? Why are UK 10 year bond prices so low, 4.46% today, within the last year they have been as high as 4.8/4.9. Debt up, spending up, taxes up, so why the improvement?

    11 min
  8. Notayesmanspodcast364

    FEB 6

    Notayesmanspodcast364

    This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on how will things play out for Japan if Takaichi gets her expected landslide and implements in full her intended policies? And what will be the wider/global implications? Are gilt yields now reflecting Starmer keeping his job, just? why aren't gilt prices rising despite falling interest rates.? What is it going to take for yields in UK to fall?

    12 min
See All (16)

About

This is my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch era.

Information

  • Creator
    Notayesmanseconomics
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    16
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © All rights reserved
  • Show Website
    Notayesmanspodcasts

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