Who will lead Israel—and why might the party that wins the most seats still fail to form the next government? Joining live from Israel ahead of the October 27 election, Sam Parker sits down with his father, Andrew Parker, for a detailed look at the candidates, competing political blocs and coalition negotiations that could determine Israel’s future. With Benjamin Netanyahu seeking to remain prime minister and former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot emerging as a leading challenger, this conversation explains what to watch—and why the real political contest may continue long after the ballots are counted. An Israeli citizen who moved to Israel in 2019, Sam brings a local voter’s perspective and a background that includes studies at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business and a master’s degree focused on counterterrorism and homeland security at IDC Herzliya. Together, Andrew and Sam translate a complicated political landscape into an accessible guide for listeners following Israel from abroad. HOW ISRAEL’S ELECTION SYSTEM WORKS Sam begins with a fundamental distinction: Israelis vote for party lists rather than directly electing a prime minister. He explains how those lists translate into representation in the 120-seat Knesset, why parties must receive at least 3.25% of valid votes to qualify for seats, and why 61 seats is the central target for a majority coalition. The discussion explores the difficult choices facing voters whose preferred parties are polling near the electoral threshold. Supporting a smaller party could help it secure representation and change the balance between competing blocs. But if that party falls short, its voters receive no parliamentary representation through that list. Sam explains the strategic calculations—and uncertainty—behind that decision. NETANYAHU, LIKUD AND THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT Andrew and Sam examine Netanyahu’s political durability, Likud’s electoral base and the parties that have supported his governing coalition. The conversation covers Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, also known as Jewish Power, and the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. Sam considers how movement between Likud and parties further to its right could affect Netanyahu’s prospects. They also discuss the electoral implications of Smotrich’s alliance with Moshe Feiglin and why a smaller party’s performance can matter far beyond its individual seat total. THE CHALLENGERS: EISENKOT, BENNETT, LAPID AND LIBERMAN Who could assemble an alternative government? Sam explains the appeal of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, including Eisenkot’s military background, Moroccan Jewish heritage and upbringing in Eilat. He discusses why Eisenkot may attract voters from different political camps, including some who previously supported Netanyahu. The conversation also examines former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s joint B’Yachad slate, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats, formed through the merger of Labor and Meretz. Andrew and Sam explore an important distinction for American audiences: opposition to Netanyahu does not necessarily mean agreement on security, religion and state, economics or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Sam also explains why American definitions of “liberal,” “conservative,” “left” and “right” do not translate neatly into Israeli politics. ARAB PARTIES, NEW CONTENDERS AND POTENTIAL DECIDING VOTES The discussion turns to Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am party, its participation in the 2021–2022 governing coalition, and the significance of former senior police official Yoav Segalovitz joining its candidate list. Sam contrasts Ra’am’s approach to coalition participation with that of the Joint List. He also introduces two newer electoral contenders: the Reservists–Economic Party, bringing together Yoaz Hendel, Yaron Zelekha and former Labor lawmaker Einat Wilf; and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael, whose slate includes Arab Israeli advocate Yoseph Haddad. For voters frustrated with established parties, these lists offer additional choices. For coalition planners, their ability to cross the electoral threshold could change the parliamentary arithmetic. TRUMP, IDENTITY AND THE ISSUES BEHIND THE CAMPAIGN Andrew asks whether President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu could influence undecided Israeli voters. Sam offers his assessment of Trump’s standing in Israel and whether that support is likely to change voting decisions. They also discuss how identity, family history, religious observance and community loyalties shape party allegiance. An anecdote about Eisenkot trying to persuade his own mother to support his party illustrates how deeply those connections can run. Against the backdrop of October 7 and the ensuing wars, Sam questions whether a campaign centered on Netanyahu’s political future has left enough room for substantive debate about security, the cost of living and Israel’s challenges involving Iran, Gaza and Lebanon. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE VOTE? The episode concludes with the possibilities that could follow election day: prolonged negotiations, unexpected partnerships, defections, a broader unity arrangement or another election if attempts to form a government fail. Andrew and Sam discuss the president’s role in assigning the task of forming a government, the initial 28-day negotiating period, and why election-night exit polls cannot answer every question about who will ultimately govern. For anyone trying to understand Israel’s election beyond the headlines, this father-and-son conversation offers a detailed guide to the personalities, political identities and parliamentary calculations shaping the race. Watch or listen to Episode 514, then share your thoughts: Which parties could find enough common ground to govern together? Subscribe to The Andrew Parker Show for conversations about Politics, Israel, and the Law. Visit theandrewparkershow.com to explore more episodes and join our email list. Thank you to Parker Daniels Kibort for sponsoring The Andrew Parker Show. Recorded before the October 27, 2026 election. Polling assessments, predictions and potential coalition arrangements reflect the discussion at the time of recording. Support the show The Andrew Parker Show - Politics, Israel & The Law. Follow us on Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube and X. Subscribe to our email list at www.theandrewparkershow.com Copyright © 2026 The Andrew Parker Show - All Rights Reserved.
