Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

Warren Sharp
  • 4.5 (205)
  • Football
  • Updated Semiweekly

Warren Sharp is joined by his NFL & College Football Analysts to pore through the data and bring you the smartest people in the sport to find edges to exploit and advantages to make better bets and win fantasy football leagues & contests! Featuring insights, projections and commentary from Warren Sharp, Rich Hribar, Ray Summerlin, Ryan McCrystal and the Sharp Football team!

  1. 44m ago

    NFL Week 6 Preview: Cowboys-Packers, Bears-Falcons and More

    NFL Week 6 preview and matchups: Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football, Bears at Falcons, Texans vs Jaguars in London and Steelers at Buccaneers. The pressure rates, personnel splits, run game numbers and coverages that decide each game, plus two sneaky matchups: 49ers at Commanders and Saints at Giants. Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Tucker Kraft, Dak Prescott, Bijan Robinson, Montez Sweat, Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Bowles, Brock Purdy, Cam Skattebo. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN • How Green Bay stopped getting Jordan Love hit, and the personnel and play action change behind it• Why the way Dallas defends heavy sets plays right into the Packers' hands• Why the Cowboys offense is the biggest test the Green Bay defense has seen all year• How bad the Bears run defense really is once you look at who it has faced, and what Bijan Robinson does on outside zone• What happens to Chicago's run defense when Montez Sweat is off the field• Caleb Williams inside the pocket vs outside it, and why Atlanta wants him to drop back• The run game mismatch in London: Houston's ground game against a Jacksonville front that has not been tested• Why the Jaguars are a pass funnel, and what that opens up for C.J. Stroud• Aaron Rodgers against Todd Bowles: the quick game, the blitz and the coverage he has struggled with• Brock Purdy against base defense, and why Washington plays so much of it• The one run concept the Saints shut down, and why the Giants run it so often CHAPTERS 00:00 Week 6: what you need to know00:46 MATCHUP 1: Jordan Love vs the Cowboys defense03:49 How Green Bay fixed the protection07:27 The Cowboys offense vs Green Bay08:57 Subscribe09:19 MATCHUP 2: Bijan Robinson vs the Bears run defense14:20 Montez Sweat on and off the field16:03 Caleb Williams and the Bears offense19:17 MATCHUP 3: Texans run game vs the Jaguars, London26:39 Rich's Worksheets27:34 MATCHUP 4: Aaron Rodgers vs Todd Bowles31:12 Tampa Bay's Cover 3 and Rodgers33:11 SNEAKY: Brock Purdy vs Washington's base defense35:27 SNEAKY: Giants run game vs the Saints38:22 Wrap Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vGRyoc6V2A Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/ Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday. Follow UsX: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysisWeb: sharpfootballanalysis.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  2. 3d ago

    NFL Week 5 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    NFL Week 5 takeaways from the numbers. The Seahawks handed the 49ers all three touchdowns on turnovers and still finished last in the week in EPA per play, the Commanders led 12 to 3 at the half and let the Giants run the best second half of any offense, the Chargers offense broke in Denver and the Broncos won anyway, the Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz for four quarters, and LaFleur finally threw over the loaded box. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football, Rams at Bills, with Curtis. Get the free newsletter, every article plus free bets and player props: sharp.football What You'll Learn • Seattle gave up three touchdowns off turnovers and ranked last in EPA per play, series conversion and plays per drive• The Seahawks' early down runs produced -0.66 EPA per rush, the worst in the week, with a 13.8 percent drop rate, the highest• The Giants went from a 20 percent first half success rate, worst in the week, to 61.5 percent in the second half, the best• Washington's coverage flipped at halftime: man coverage from 22 to 43 percent, two high from 50 to 18 percent, and Jameis Winston went +0.67 EPA per attempt with three touchdowns• Jayden Daniels was blitzed on 73.3 percent of dropbacks, the highest rate any quarterback faced• Harbaugh's Chargers used two back sets on 41.3 percent of snaps, the most in the week, and Justin Herbert's sack plus interception rate was 21.4 percent, the highest• Denver ranked last in third down conversion and pass success rate and won• Cleveland lined up in shotgun on 96.9 percent of snaps against a 56.1 percent blitz rate and took 8 sacks• Green Bay saw 7 or more in the box on 89.8 percent of snaps and Jordan Love averaged 11.8 yards per attempt over it• Chicago turned it over on 41.7 percent of drives with backup quarterbacks, and what the last three weeks say about Caleb Williams• The Steelers put 8 in the box on 75 percent of Colts runs against a 39 percent league average• Monday Night Football: Rams at Bills, with Curtis on the matchup he likes Chapters 00:00 Intro00:20 Seahawks gave away the game05:19 Commanders defense let down again11:13 Herbert and a broken Chargers offense15:57 The Broncos won with the worst offense of the week18:43 Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz21:43 Subscribe22:22 LaFleur finally gets it24:57 The Bears gave it away, and need Caleb Williams back28:58 Texans step up in London31:20 Steelers did not respect Daniel Jones33:24 The free newsletter34:28 Monday Night Football: Rams at Bills, with Curtis46:44 Wrap-up Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bahxb0Z9IZ4 More Resources Free NFL stats tools, Pass Rate Over Expected and more: sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nflWeekly, monthly and full season packages: sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages Follow UsX: @SharpFootball and @SharpFBAnalysisYouTube: Sharp Football Analysis Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  3. 6d ago

    NFL Week 5 Best Bets & Player Props (39-14, 74%)

    NFL Week 5 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. It starts with three keys that decide how you bet the weekend: Sam Darnold against a 49ers defense that takes away the middle of the field, the Bengals possibly without Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and why that might help Chase Brown against a Dolphins run defense with a split, and the Bears running outside zone at a Packers defense that cannot stop it. Then Ryan McCrystal on Alabama at Georgia, Oklahoma vs Texas and UCLA at Oregon, Rich Hribar with three props including Monday night, Joe Gibbs on the referees for Lions at Cardinals, Ravens at Falcons and Bills at Rams, and the best bet of the week to close. $5 for all of our Week 5 NFL picks with code WEEK5: https://sharp.footballFree week of OddsJam with code WARREN.Watch the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlVpbB-tBa0 00:00 What is on the show this week01:17 Who wins the middle of the field05:41 Could losing the receivers help Chase Brown?09:12 Outside zone against Green Bay12:58 Ryan McCrystal on three college games23:50 $5 for Week 5 with code WEEK524:45 Rich Hribar's three props31:55 Joe Gibbs on the Week 5 referees41:57 OddsJam42:37 Best bet of the week50:05 Good luck this weekend Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  4. Oct 8

    NFL Week 5 Preview: 49ers-Seahawks, Eagles-Jaguars and More

    NFL Week 5 matchups, stats and betting angles: 49ers at Seahawks, Eagles vs Jaguars in London, Colts at Steelers, Raiders at Patriots. The coverages, pressure rates and personnel splits that decide each game, plus two sneaky games: Bears at Packers and Vikings at Saints. This week only: every pick, every prop and every Worksheet for $5 with code WEEK5: https://sharp.football Brock Purdy, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Nick Bosa, Raheem Morris, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Jordan Love, Tyler Shough, Brian Flores. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN • Why Mike Macdonald's defense is the one Brock Purdy has never solved, and the two coverages it comes down to• What the 49ers pass rush turns into without Nick Bosa, and how Raheem Morris is coaching around it• Why Sam Darnold is about to see exactly what he is worst against• The reason the Eagles do not want to throw, and why they cannot run either• What Jacksonville does to teams in the first half, and what Philadelphia does in the second• The coverage every defense is now playing against Aaron Rodgers, and whether Indianapolis will follow• Where the Colts pass defense is open, and the Steelers receiver who lives there• What Drake Maye cleaned up last week, and the problem that did not go away• Why nobody in New England is making yards for him• How Green Bay fixed Jordan Love, and why Chicago is built the same way• What Brian Flores does to rookie quarterbacks, and what Tyler Shough does when blitzed CHAPTERS 00:00 Cold open: Week 5, what you need to know01:24 MATCHUP 1: Brock Purdy vs Mike Macdonald's defense05:44 Sam Darnold vs the 49ers defense without Bosa11:32 Subscribe12:14 MATCHUP 2: Eagles offense vs Jaguars defense, London20:36 $5 for every pick and every Worksheet, code WEEK521:46 MATCHUP 3: Aaron Rodgers vs the Colts defense27:15 The Worksheet27:41 MATCHUP 4: Drake Maye vs the Raiders defense33:36 SNEAKY: the Packers' fix, and the Bears37:04 SNEAKY: Tyler Shough vs Brian Flores40:51 Wrap Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@WarrenSharp Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/ Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday. Follow UsX: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysisWeb: sharpfootballanalysis.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  5. Oct 5

    NFL Week 4 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    NFL Week 4 takeaways from the numbers. The most penalties in any NFL week since 2015 and record offensive flags in the red zone, the Texans blew a 10 point lead because they cannot run, the Eagles went three and out five times in the second half, the Rams won while playing left handed, and the Bengals offense fell apart without Ja'Marr Chase. Plus a best bet for tonight's Monday Night Football with Curtis. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN 17 penalties per game in Week 4, the most in any week since 2015 and the most after September since 2005Offenses flagged 6.18 times per 100 snaps, the most through four weeks since 2000, with record red zone penaltiesHow Houston built a 16-6 lead from under center, then went 72% shotgun and ran six times in the second halfDallas in the second half: 56% success, +0.50 EPA per play, a first down on 41% of snaps, all number oneJalen Hurts on third down: 8.4 yards to go, 90% of throws short of the sticks, one completionRams by personnel: -0.14 EPA per play in 11, +0.87 in 12, +0.98 in 13, and the second half run game that won itThe Bengals with and without Chase: +0.40 to +0.04 EPA per attempt, 89% to 69% completionsBo Nix: 24 first half attempts at 3.9 yards each, 41% of throws at or behind the lineThe new free stats page and the Pass Rate Over Expected toolMonday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis on the matchup he likesCHAPTERS00:00 Intro00:32 The refs: 17 penalties per game and record offensive flags08:27 Subscribe09:04 Texans can't run and it cost them12:32 The Cowboys second half offense15:00 Strength of schedule: Texans and Jaguars15:53 Eagles offense still broken18:14 Rams played left handed and won20:32 Ja'Marr Chase injury was massive for Cincy23:57 What is the Broncos offense doing?28:57 Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis31:48 The new free stats page and Pass Rate Over Expected tool38:23 Wrap-up GET THE FREE NEWSLETTEREvery article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up in 30 seconds at https://sharp.football FREE NFL STATS TOOLSPass Rate Over Expected and more, free on the new stats page: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/ GET THE FULL SLATEWeekly, monthly and full season packages are available now at https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  6. Oct 2

    (39-13, 75%) NFL Week 4 Best Bets & Player Props 2026

    NFL Week 4 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp opens with three matchups that decide how you bet the weekend, then Ryan McCrystal on the Saturday college slate, Rich Hribar with three favorite props including the first London game of the year, Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referee crews, and the best bet of the week to close. 50% off any season long or monthly package with code SHOW50: https://sharp.football Covered in this episode: Brian Flores, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Brad Allen, Craig Wrolstad, Land Clark. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN• Why the number one blitz rate in the NFL on early downs is a problem for a quarterback who has not faced an above average blitz yet• The play action split that makes one offense look like two different teams, and the defense that is elite without it and bottom five against it• Why a pass rush that gets home on 59% of third downs only gets there on 25% of early downs, and what that means for a quarterback who is barely pressured• Three college games where a coordinator change, a missed tackle rate and a quarterback holding the ball decide the number• How three referee crews are calling penalties this season and which teams it helps CHAPTERS00:00 What is on the show this week01:39 Why this show is more than the bets02:52 Brian Flores gets the team that fired him05:36 The play action lever Las Vegas is not pulling11:04 Trevor versus time14:20 Ryan McCrystal on three college games23:14 50% off with code SHOW5024:20 Rich Hribar's three props34:01 Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referees42:50 OddsJam43:19 Best bet of the week52:14 Back on Monday  Watch the full show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7s695JYfdg PROMO CODESSHOW50 for 50% off any season long or monthly betting package at https://sharp.footballWARREN at OddsJam for a free week trial and 40% off the first month: https://oddsjam.com/nfl/screen/moneyline?promo=warren GUESTSRyan McCrystal, college football betting analyst, Sharp Football AnalysisRich Hribar, Sharp Football AnalysisJoe Gibbs, referee analyst, Sharp Football Analysis MORE RESOURCESSharp Football Analysis: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.comBetting packages: https://sharp.football Follow UsWarren Sharp on X: @SharpFootballRich Hribar on X: @LordReebsSharp Football Analysis on X: @SharpFBAnalysisYouTube: @SharpFootballAnalysis Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  7. Oct 1

    NFL Week 4 Matchups: What You Need to Know Before Kickoff

    Warren Sharp and Rich Hribar break down the four matchups that decide Week 4, plus two under-the-radar games nobody is talking about. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN Why the Eagles pass defense ranking is a mirage, and the three quarterbacks it was built onThe coverage Vic Fangio has quietly taken away from Matthew Stafford in every meetingWhere Sean McVay gets Kyren Williams the box count he never sees anywhere elseThe one formation split that explains the entire Joe Burrow vs Jacksonville matchupWhat happens to the Jaguars pass defense when the pass rush does not get homeThe Buffalo coverage call that broke Drake Maye last season, and whether a new coordinator goes back to itWhat Drake Maye actually does well, and the exact moment in a dropback when it falls apartThe change D'Amico Ryans has made in Houston, and why Dallas is built to attack itWhat Nico Collins is worth to C.J. StroudThe play action split that should decide Chiefs at RaidersWhy the Chargers offensive line is walking into the worst possible building50% off monthly and full season packages with code SHOW50 at sharp.football CHAPTERS00:00 Cold open00:30 Welcome, and the week ahead00:59 MATCHUP 1: Rams offense vs the Eagles defense10:27 The schedule Jalen Hurts has actually faced13:53 Subscribe14:32 MATCHUP 2: Joe Burrow vs the Jaguars defense19:40 The pass protections Jacksonville has faced22:09 50% off monthly and full season packages, code SHOW5023:37 MATCHUP 3: Drake Maye vs the Bills pass defense25:06 The Cover 6 blueprint30:25 The Worksheet31:00 MATCHUP 4: the Texans defense vs Dak Prescott35:43 What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud37:46 SNEAKY: Raiders play action vs the Chiefs40:13 SNEAKY: Seahawks pass rush vs Justin Herbert42:36 Wrap Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week at sharpfootballanalysis.com New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  8. Sep 28

    NFL Week 3 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    NFL Week 3 takeaways from the numbers. Dallas mismanaged the clock at the Baltimore 7, the Chargers got 5 Buffalo turnovers and did not even cover, and halftime adjustments decided several games. Plus a few best bets for Monday Night Football, Eagles at Bears, with Curtis. What You'll Learn • Why the Cowboys' timeout with 15 seconds left, the throwaway and the touchback handed Baltimore a chance• Derrick Henry's short yardage numbers: 53% first down rate on 75 runs, ranked 70th of 73 backs• How teams plus 4 in turnovers with 3 or fewer punts were 151-3 straight up since 1990, and the Chargers still lost• The four Chargers drives inside the Bills 30 that produced three field goals, a miss and an interception• Mike McCarthy's halftime change: shotgun from 73% to 52%, third downs from 7.2 to 4.3 yards to go• Why Cincinnati saw the lightest boxes of the week and still ran only 16 times• Jacksonville's run game against the Patriots, and why New England's early down runs against light boxes had a 0% success rate• Drake Maye holding the ball 3.3 seconds and the lowest third down passer rating of the week• How Seattle threw for 393 yards, outgained Washington 6.8 to 4.0 yards per play, and lost• Marcus Mariota pressured on 54% of dropbacks with 0 interceptions and 3 touchdowns• Bryce Young against man coverage versus zone• Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis on the angles he is watching Chapters 00:00 Intro00:44 The Cowboys botched the end of the game in Baltimore03:53 Derrick Henry in short yardage07:06 How did the Chargers not even cover?12:25 Subscribe and the Best Bet record13:17 Steelers offensive tweaks at halftime13:39 Cincinnati saw light boxes and still rarely ran15:56 What happened to the Patriots offense?20:25 The Commanders unlikely win over Seattle23:37 Bryce Young was fine against man coverage25:08 Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis33:59 Subscribe to the free newsletter34:39 Wrap-up Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTi_Vlrn9kI Get the free newsletter: every article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up at sharp.football Get the full slate: weekly, monthly and full season packages at sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages Guests: Curtis Hirsch Follow UsTwitter/X: @SharpFBAnalysisYouTube: Sharp Football AnalysisWebsite: sharpfootballanalysis.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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About

Warren Sharp is joined by his NFL & College Football Analysts to pore through the data and bring you the smartest people in the sport to find edges to exploit and advantages to make better bets and win fantasy football leagues & contests! Featuring insights, projections and commentary from Warren Sharp, Rich Hribar, Ray Summerlin, Ryan McCrystal and the Sharp Football team!

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