The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

S&P Global

Whether you're a business leader, investor, or simply curious about the forces shaping our world, The Decisive podcast is here to provide you with the knowledge you need to stay ahead. Join our team of seasoned Market Intelligence analysts as they explore the ever-changing landscape of maritime, trade and supply chain, economics and country risk.

  1. MAY 16

    PMI in Focus: Stockpiling and the Shadow of Stagflation

    In this May 2026 episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence economists Paul Smith, Eleanor Dennison, and Andrew Harker dissect the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data to reveal how ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are reshaping the global economic landscape. The team explores the ripple effects of supply chain disruptions, energy price surges, and heightened uncertainty on both manufacturing and service sectors across key regions. Listeners will gain a comprehensive overview of the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI, highlighting modest growth in business activity alongside mounting inflationary pressures. The episode explores the eurozone's contrasting sector performance, with manufacturing buoyed by precautionary stockpiling and services facing contraction amid record-high uncertainty. Andrew Harker provides granular insights into commodity price movements, supply shortages, and the nuanced pass-through of costs in Asian economies, while Eleanor Dennison offers a deep dive into eurozone trends and the qualitative evidence from PMI panelists. Tune in for expert analysis on stagflation risks, the challenges of forecasting in volatile times, and the critical role of PMI data in navigating economic turning points. Whether you're tracking inflation, supply chains, or global business sentiment, this episode delivers timely intelligence for decision-makers. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: PMI data and commentary Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: May 2026 Click here for a special PMI client case study For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Middle East war Policy rate prospects Credits: Host: Paul Smith Guests: Andrew Harker, Eleanor Dennison Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

    22 min

  2. MAY 9

    Fake IDs on the High Seas: How Bad Actors Evade Detection

    In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam explores the murky world of maritime identity manipulation—a growing threat that's reshaping global shipping, sanctions enforcement, and international trade. Joined by maritime risk and compliance expert Jeremy Domballe, Kristen unpacks how vessels can alter their digital, physical, and legal identities to operate undetected on the world's oceans. From "zombie ships" reusing the identities of long-scrapped vessels to the physical "whitewashing" of ship names, Kristen and Jeremy reveal the methods bad actors use to evade sanctions, access restricted markets, and profit from illicit trade. They also examine the risks this deception poses to financial institutions, insurers, ship owners, and governments—highlighting why trust in vessel identity is foundational to the entire maritime ecosystem. Listeners will gain insight into the latest trends in ID spoofing, including the manipulation of AIS signals, GNSS jamming, and unintentional identity errors that can create confusion across continents. The episode concludes with practical guidance on due diligence, technological countermeasures, and the importance of vigilance for anyone exposed to the maritime domain. Discover why, in today's shipping world, not every vessel is what it seems—and what you can do to stay one step ahead. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Transshipment: Frequently Asked Questions Port Congestion Analysis: Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia main hubs Maritime Chokepoints Tighten, Global Supply Chain Risk Rises For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Middle East war Truck trade: Hybrid routes provide Hormuz alternatives for containers, fertilizers Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Jeremy Domballe Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

    19 min

  3. MAY 2

    State of Shock: Economic Impacts of Middle East Conflict

    The global economy is facing its weakest growth outlook since 2009. What happens when geopolitical conflict collides with an already fragile energy market? In this episode of The Decisive, we examine the cascading macroeconomic impacts of recent global disruptions and the resulting negative supply shocks that have forced economists to revise their forecasts. With global real GDP growth downgraded to just 2.4% and inflation projections rising due to energy and food prices, the economic divide between oil-exporting and oil-importing nations is becoming ever more pronounced. What You'll Learn: The Macro Outlook Discover why growth forecasts have been lowered and what our base-case assumption of $100/barrel oil means for the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession. The Great Divide Explore the stark contrast in economic fortunes: Energy exporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weathering the storm, while highly vulnerable importers such as India, Egypt, and the Philippines face more acute macroeconomic pressures. Central Bank Dilemmas Understand how major central banks worldwide are navigating the difficult choice between taming persistent inflation and preventing an economic downturn—and why their responses could determine the trajectory of the global economy. Beyond the Barrel Uncover the hidden vulnerabilities in global supply chains, from refined fuels and fertilizers to the unexpected fallout in non-oil sectors like tourism, logistics, and real estate across the Middle East and Asia Pacific. Regional Deep Dives Get detailed analysis of how the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Asia Pacific (APAC) regions are experiencing these shocks differently, with vulnerability indices revealing which countries face the greatest macro-financial risks. Join our experts for a comprehensive, data-driven breakdown of vulnerabilities, inflation dynamics, and macroeconomic risks defining the global economy today.  More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global Economic Outlook: April 2026 Picture This: What Middle East Supply Disruptions Mean for the Asia-Pacific Region Click here to hear our economists speak in Paris  Click here to hear our economists speak in Frankfurt For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Middle East war Global Executive Summary Credits: Host: Ken Wattret Guests: Ralf Wiegert, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Diego Iscaro, Ben Herzon Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

    48 min

  4. APR 25

    Governance Stress Tests: Key Elections in 2026

    As pivotal elections approach in the United States, Brazil, and Ethiopia, global businesses are navigating a rapidly evolving landscape of risks and opportunities. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts John Raines (Head of North America Country Risk), Rafael Amiel (Head of Latin America Economics), and Jordan Anderson (Principal Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk) to examine how political outcomes through 2026 will influence government stability, economic policy, and geopolitical risk well into 2027 and beyond. Listeners will gain exclusive insights into potential market volatility as the panel explores the implications of the U.S. midterms, Brazil's presidential race, and Ethiopia's general elections. The discussion covers how shifting political dynamics may impact trade, supply chains, regulatory frameworks, and fiscal strategies—key considerations for multinational corporations and investors. Key topics include: Election outlooks in the U.S., Brazil, and Ethiopia and their impact on government stability Fiscal and monetary policy risks in Brazil and the U.S. Geopolitical and security risks in Ethiopia, including implications for regional stability and foreign investment Trade negotiations and the strategic role of commodities in Brazil's foreign policy Key indicators to monitor ahead of major elections for early risk detection More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Geopolitical Risk Brief: April 2026 Russia-Ukraine War: Three Conflict Development Pathways in the Next 12 Months Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Global Executive Summary: Conflict-related economic fallout to continue Middle East war Currency outlooks Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: John Raines, Rafael Amiel, Jordan Anderson Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

    44 min

  5. APR 18

    How Supply Constraints Are Defining Electronics Pricing

    In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Yan Hoong for an outlook on the electronics and semiconductor landscape through 2026—taken from a March 12 client webinar.  Yan explains why memory remains a big source of procurement and pricing anxiety, with tightness persisting in both advanced and conventional memory as suppliers shift capacity toward higher-end products. Yan unpacks how this constraint is already spilling into downstream categories like computers and communications equipment, and why price pressure could linger until new capacity meaningfully comes online in late 2027 to 2028.  The conversation also broadens beyond AI hype: while AI and data centers continue to pull demand (especially for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM), Yan points to a gradual recovery in the broader electronics cycle, with mixed signals across end markets. Aerospace and defense and AI-led infrastructure stand out as growth areas, while consumer electronics and automotive remain softer, reinforced by slowing light vehicle production and divergent PMI new order trends.  Finally, Yan breaks down the January 2026 Section 232 tariff announcement, outlining how its pricing impact on US semiconductors may be limited due to narrow scope and broad exemptions for domestic use, with exposure more concentrated in re-export pathways. The episode closes by connecting pricing dynamics across regions—highlighting how memory-heavy supply chains are driving sharper producer price escalation in places like South Korea—while legacy components remain comparatively stable. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Electronics Supply Chain Outlook Click here for our special report on the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices Click here to access our webinar on powering AI infrastructure in a volatile world Subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter. For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report) Purchasing Environment US tariff plans Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Yan Hoong Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

    15 min

  6. APR 11

    Risk On: The Macro Environment for Moving Metals Prices

    In the first episode of season 6 of The Decisive podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Jason Kaplan unpacks why 2026 is shaping up as a "risk-on" commodities environment—with steady but subdued global growth, rising volatility, and a deepening flight to safety that's pushing risk premiums across key markets. Jason, a senior economist in the Pricing and Purchasing team, connects macroeconomic signals to real-world pricing and trade flows, including how tariffs and regionalization are re-splitting markets after years of prices moving in lockstep. With a year of tariff data now visible, Jason details how Section 232-era aluminum tariffs and downstream copper-product tariffs are showing up in U.S. prices, collapsing imports, and widening regional differentials—with a caveat that the full cost burden for U.S. manufacturers may still be ahead. On the metals side, the episode dives into copper's structurally tight supply picture, the unique stress points in aluminum's midstream, and the U.S. Midwest premium, plus what's driving turning points in nickel, tin, and zinc.  Finally, recorded just as geopolitical tensions escalated, Jason discusses why the published forecast does not yet fully incorporate the Iranian conflict—and what could change as updated macro assumptions are released, including particular sensitivity for Gulf-linked aluminum supply risks. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Commodity Price Watch Monthly: March 2026 US resin shippers look to tap new customers amid Iran war Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter. For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report) Purchasing Environment US tariff plans Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Jason Kaplan Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

    22 min

  7. MAR 28

    Logistics Finds a Way: Lessons in Supply Chain Resilience

    In our last episode of Season 5, host Kristen Hallam sits down with Chris Rogers, S&P Global Market Intelligence's head of supply chain research, to analyze the moments when supply chains gets stressed—and the playbooks that keep goods moving anyway. From ongoing Red Sea security disruptions that forced ocean carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, reshaping transit times, capacity, and cost, to the more everyday shocks that ripple through transportation networks, this episode explores what resilience looks like when it's operational—not aspirational. Chris discusses how leading supply chain teams respond under pressure with creative routing, smarter inventory positioning, and faster decision cycles, and why resilience today is less about a single "backup plan" and more about building options: diversified sourcing, flexible modes, and contracts designed for uncertainty.  Along the way, we translate hard-won lessons into practical best practices—how to stress-test logistics networks, where agility creates the most value, and how resilient organizations balance service, cost, and risk without overcorrecting. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Picture This: India Plans New Smartphone Supply Chain Incentives Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter. Click here to learn more about Breakbulk26 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Supply Chain Edge: Tracing Middle East supply chain dependencies, investigating new corridors, tracking CHPIs Moving from price to shortages: Regional supply chain exposures to Middle East conflict US tariff plans Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guest: Chris Rogers Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

    18 min

  8. MAR 21

    Critical Minerals at a Crossroads: Navigating Supply, Demand, and Geopolitics

    As the global transition to clean energy, advanced technology, and artificial intelligence accelerates, the demand for critical minerals—including copper, lithium, and rare earth elements—is reshaping supply chains and intensifying geopolitical competition. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam leads a discussion with S&P Global Market Intelligence experts to examine the evolving landscape of critical minerals. The panel explores how changing definitions, trade flows, and strategic stockpiling are influencing both businesses and governments worldwide. Senior Supply Chain Analyst Eric Oak discusses the complexities of critical mineral classifications and shifting global trade patterns. Senior Economist Jason Kaplan provides insight into the tightening supply-demand balance for copper, price volatility, and procurement strategies. Carla Selman, Head of Latin America Country Risk, analyzes Latin America's strategic role in the minerals sector and the impact of regional politics and alliances with the US and China. Economist David Vagenknecht offers a European perspective, focusing on the EU's ambitions for strategic autonomy, challenges in domestic processing, and the balance between environmental leadership and resource security. This episode delivers actionable insights for business leaders, investors, and policymakers on building resilient supply chains, anticipating market shifts, and navigating the geopolitical dynamics shaping the future of critical minerals.  More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Commodity Price Watch: March 2026 Global Economic Outlook: March 2026 Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter. For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report) Latin America's position in the critical minerals supply chain 2026: The age of agility Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: Eric Oak, Jason Kaplan, Carla Selman, David Vagenknecht Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

    45 min
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Ratings & Reviews

4.8
out of 5
13 Ratings

About

Whether you're a business leader, investor, or simply curious about the forces shaping our world, The Decisive podcast is here to provide you with the knowledge you need to stay ahead. Join our team of seasoned Market Intelligence analysts as they explore the ever-changing landscape of maritime, trade and supply chain, economics and country risk.

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