Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik
  • 4.9 (351)
  • Business
  • Updated Daily

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

  1. 16h ago

    Tentative US-Iran Peace Deal Reached!

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Geopolitics 🤝 The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war. The agreement includes releasing $25B in assets and lifting oil sanctions, while Iran commits to no nuclear weapons. 🚢 Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, and the U.S. will lift its naval blockade. More details are expected in follow-up talks, with the deal set to be signed Friday. 🌽 Grain Markets 🟡 Soybeans slipped (Nov ’26: $11.32, -2¢) under pressure from good weather and weaker crude. 🌽 Corn rebounded late (Dec ’26: ~$4.40, +1¢) but still faces headwinds from energy markets, favorable weather, and big South American crop expectations. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower on ample global supplies. 🌦️ Weather ⛈️ Severe storms swept the Corn Belt over the weekend, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some areas saw flooding. 🌡️ Temps stay above normal this week (not extreme), with more scattered rain ahead—heaviest in central and eastern areas. Overall tone remains bearish for grains. 📊 Funds (CFTC) 🐻 Funds turned net short corn (sold 121k contracts), the largest sell-off since May ’25. 🌱 Soybean longs shrank (sold 58k), now the smallest since February. 🌾 Wheat also saw selling (23k contracts). 🥩 Cattle 🏭 JBS is closing plants in Pennsylvania and Memphis, shifting cattle elsewhere. 🐄 With the herd at a 75-year low, tight supplies are driving record cattle prices and heavy packer losses. ⚖️ Short term: too much capacity vs. cattle. Long term: less capacity is negative for the industry.

    19 min

  2. 3d ago

    More of the Same: USDA Report Underwhelms

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Report: Nothing to Get Excited About The latest USDA report was largely as expected—minimal changes to U.S. stocks and only modest tweaks on demand. South American production was revised higher, keeping global corn supplies comfortable. Overall reaction: underwhelmed 😐 📉 Grain Markets Slip Soybeans, corn, and wheat all moved lower. Favorable weather 🌦️, weak crude oil 🛢️, and ample supply expectations kept pressure on prices. 🌧️ Weather: Mixed Bag Rain helped improve drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, but dryness worsened in northern Minnesota and remains widespread in the High Plains. Still a split story 🌦️➡️🌵 🛢️ Oil Drops on Peace Hopes Crude fell over 2% as optimism builds around a potential end to the war, but uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict continues to fuel inflation pressures 📉➡️📈 🚢 Export Snapshot Corn sales improved, soybeans disappointed, and wheat exceeded expectations. Notably, China is still absent from new-crop soybean buying, with a large share of sales sitting in “unknown” destinations 👀

    17 min

  3. 4d ago

    Inflation SPIKE - What Does it Mean for Corn Prices??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 📈 Inflation Hits 3-Year High — Consumer prices jumped 4.2% year over year in May, the largest annual gain since April 2023, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran war. With inflation outpacing wages and the Fed expected to hold rates steady next week, traders are asking, could grains rally sharply like they did in 2021-2022 if inflation accelerates?  ⛈️ Severe Weather Pounds the Corn Belt — Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes swept across the region Wednesday, with the active pattern expected to persist through Friday and flooding risks mounting. Temperatures are forecast to moderate by the weekend, followed by below-normal readings next week.  🌱 Soybeans Snap Losing Streak — After eight straight sessions of declines, Nov26 soybeans rebounded ~7 cents to settle near $11.39, lifted by crude oil strength amid Middle East tensions. Dec26 corn edged ~2 cents higher to close near $4.47, while wheat posted modest gains across most contracts.  📊 USDA Report Day — The monthly Crop Production and WASDE report drops today at 11am CST, with traders expecting no significant changes to US or global ending stocks. Corn exports could be revised higher, while frustration over the lack of Chinese soybean purchases raises the possibility of a demand cut—though it may be too early for the USDA to act.  ⛽ Ethanol Production Holds Steady — Weekly output came in at 1.1mil barrels per day, unchanged from the prior week, while stocks declined 1% to 24.45mil barrels. Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, running 25 to 60 cents positive per Reuters data.  🥩 Beef prices keep climbing—ground beef hit $7.06/lb in May (+13% YoY), and steak surged to $12.80/lb (+16%) as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over seven decades. With more than half of cattle country in drought, meaningful herd rebuilding is unlikely anytime soon — though analysts question how long demand can hold as inflation erodes purchasing power.

    17 min

  4. 5d ago

    Rain Makes Grain... Or Does It? Corn Belt Slammed by Severe Weather

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER SLAMS THE PLAINS & CORN BELT 🌪️ Powerful storms are sweeping from North Dakota to northern Texas with damaging winds, hail, and tornado threats before pushing east through the Corn Belt! Flood watches are up across KS, MO, IL, IN, KY, and TN, while heat advisories stretch from Minnesota to Texas. 🥵 🌱 SOYBEANS SLIDE FOR 8TH STRAIGHT SESSION 📉 Nov26 beans dropped another 4 cents to $11.32, the lowest since mid-March, pressured by friendly weather, sinking crude, and zero Chinese demand! Soybean oil strength limited the bleeding, while corn finished narrowly mixed and wheat closed mostly higher. 📊 🛢️ OIL TUMBLES DESPITE MIDDLE EAST FIREWORKS 💥 WTI crude crashed 3.4% to $88.20 even after Iran reportedly shot down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz! Traders shrugged off the escalation, focusing instead on Trump's claim that a US-Iran deal is just days away—plus rising oil exports through the waterway! 🚢 🌽 USDA REPORT DAY IS COMING! 📋 The monthly crop production and WASDE report drops Thursday at 11am CST, with traders expecting few changes to US or global ending stocks! Watch for a possible bump in corn exports and keep an eye on soybean demand as China's absence frustrates the trade. 👀 🐛 SCREWWORM FIGHT INTENSIFIES AS CATTLE RALLY 🐂 The USDA unveiled a new fly strain set to DOUBLE sterile fly production, though full capacity won't arrive until next summer as five new cases were confirmed in Texas and New Mexico! Cattle futures didn't flinch—live cattle surged up to $2.89/cwt, and feeders jumped $3.25/cwt—even as Mexico moved to halt most live US animal imports after the close! 💪

    14 min

  5. 6d ago

    Corn and Soybean Ratings are Below Average, Prices are Below Production Cost

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn & Crops — US corn crop conditions held steady at 67% good-to-excellent, while soybeans dipped slightly to 65%. Spring wheat improved week-over-week, but winter wheat hit its lowest rating since records began in 1986. 📈 Futures Markets — Corn and wheat futures saw modest rebounds on bargain buying after recent losses, with KC wheat leading gains up 9 cents. Soybeans fell for a seventh straight session, pressured by favorable weather and weak Chinese demand. 🌧️ Weather — Parts of the Corn Belt received over 4 inches of rain in a short window, with active radar again this morning. Forecasts call for above-normal rainfall across corn areas in both the 1-7-day and 8-14-day outlooks. 💊 Fertilizer Prices — New Orleans urea has dropped 36% from its mid-April peak to $453.50/ton, now at pre-war levels as US-Iran peace talks ease supply fears. Seasonal demand weakness and ample domestic supply are adding further downward pressure. 🌍 Brazil vs. US Competition — Brazil's farming model is under strain as heavy reliance on imported fertilizer leaves growers far more exposed to the Iran-driven price shock. Many Brazilian farmers are now operating at a loss, potentially narrowing their long-standing cost advantage over US producers. 🚢 Export Inspections & Flash Sales — Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.9 MMT, up 11% year-over-year, while soybeans and wheat lagged at the lower end of expectations. USDA also reported flash sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations and 103,000 MT of corn to Japan.

    17 min

  6. Jun 8

    Corn Drops Again + Trump Said WHAT About Soybeans??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn and soybean futures continued lower Friday, with December corn settling at $4.46/bu and November beans near $11.38/bu — both at multi-month lows. A stronger dollar, Wall Street weakness, favorable weather, and a lack of Chinese buying all weighed on prices. 🌧️ Weekend rains provided solid coverage across much of the Corn Belt, with more widespread precipitation expected over the next 7 days. Temperatures will stay above normal near-term before cooling in the extended period. 🇺🇸 President Trump visited Wisconsin Friday to address farmer concerns over rising input costs and limited market access. He expressed confidence that export conditions and overall farm economics will improve within the next three months. 📊 The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers were heavy sellers across the grain complex for the week ending June 2. Funds have shed 225k corn contracts since early May, while also selling 28k beans and 38k SRW wheat contracts. 💣 US-Iran tensions escalated further Sunday as Iran launched missiles at Israel, marking its first direct strike since the early April ceasefire. Peace talks remain stalled over disputes surrounding frozen assets and broader regional conflicts. 🛢️ Oil prices have stayed surprisingly contained despite the Strait of Hormuz closure now entering its fourth month, removing over 10 million barrels per day from the global supply. Record US exports, weaker Chinese demand, and SPR releases have offset much of the shock—though the situation remains fragile. 🐛 A second New World screwworm case was confirmed in Texas Friday, just 5.6 miles from the initial detection near the US-Mexico border. Canada announced temporary import restrictions on livestock from affected regions, though cattle futures pushed higher on the week.

    17 min

  7. Jun 5

    Corn Prices Drop AGAIN - Is a Summer Rally Still Possible??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱📉 Soybean Futures—Soybean futures tumbled sharply on Thursday, with the Nov26 contract dropping nearly 26 cents to settle near $11.42/bu—its lowest point since mid-March. Favorable weather forecasts, weak crude oil prices, and lackluster Chinese demand all weighed on the market. 🌽📊 Corn & Wheat Futures — Corn futures slid 8 cents to close near $4.52/bu on the Dec26 contract, hitting its lowest level since late January. Wheat futures also finished lower, pressured by ample global supplies. 🌧️🗺️ USDA Drought Monitor—Hot and dry conditions across the Corn Belt worsened drought in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, NW Indiana, and NE Missouri last week. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw improvement, and thunderstorms brought some relief to parts of the High Plains. 📄 See USDA's drought PDF linked below. 🌾🌏 China Wheat Quality Concerns—Heavy late-May rains caused an estimated 4.8–10mmt of wheat to sprout in China's key growing regions, rendering it unfit for milling and redirecting it to livestock feed. China may ramp up imports of higher-grade milling wheat to compensate, while persistent wet weather is also slowing Russia's spring wheat planting to its slowest pace since 2018. 📦🚢 US Export Sales—Corn export sales came in at 883,300mt for the week ending May 28, down 13% week-over-week and 32% below the prior four-week average, with Japan as the top buyer. Soybean sales totaled 276,900mt — down slightly week-over-week but up 24% from the four-week average, led by China, though China has yet to book any new-crop US soybeans. 🐄🪲 Cattle Futures & Screwworm—Cattle futures rallied sharply on Thursday despite confirmation of New World screwworm in the US, with live cattle gaining up to $4.80/cwt and most feeder cattle contracts hitting the new $10.75/cwt daily limit. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins expressed confidence the case—the first in Texas since 1966—can be contained, though the risk of spread through wildlife remains a concern.

    26 min

  8. Jun 4

    Corn Collapse Continues + China Soybean Purchase Tracker

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Grain futures extended losses Wednesday, with Dec26 corn falling ~7 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans declining ~11 cents to $11.67/bu — both hitting multi-month lows. Wheat also sold off sharply, with Chicago July26 dropping ~16 cents to $5.87/bu as favorable Corn Belt growing conditions weighed on the complex. 🫘 Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden expressed confidence that China will follow through on its commitment to purchase 25mmt of US soybeans annually for three years. However, China has officially purchased zero bushels of US soybeans for 26/27 delivery so far. 📈 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the recent rise in inflation transitory, attributing it to higher energy prices tied to the Iran war. April CPI came in at 3.8% — the highest since 2023 — while most economists expect the federal deficit to widen above 6% this year. ⛽ The Iran war has driven diesel prices to nearly double last year's levels in some regions, compounding elevated fertilizer and chemical costs for farmers. Rabobank estimates food prices could rise 4–6% over the next 12–18 months as input costs work their way through the supply chain. 🏭 US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.1 million barrels per day, up 4.9% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive at 20–55 cents based on spot prices of corn, DDGs, and other inputs. 🐄 The USDA confirmed a New World screwworm case in a calf near La Pryor, Texas — the first detection in the US cattle herd. The USDA has implemented quarantines and a 12-mile surveillance zone, though questions remain about containment capacity heading into summer. 🚢 USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. The sale offers a modest bright spot amid an otherwise bearish week for grain markets.

    16 min
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About

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

Information

  • Creator
    Joe Vaclavik
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.7K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
  • Show Website
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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