Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe Vaclavik
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Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

  1. 23h ago

    MASSIVE New Ethanol Plant in ND + Putin to Jumpstart Grain Shipments

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 New Ethanol Plant for North Dakota: RoughRider Energy plans a facility near Glen Ullin that would use 84 million bushels of corn a year to produce 240 million gallons of ethanol, starting in 2029. 🏭 CO2 from the plant would be piped to a Summit Carbon storage site about 15 miles north, while Gevo has proposed a separate 75-million-gallon plant near Richardton. 📉 Soybeans Slide, Corn Edges Up: January soybeans fell 5 cents to $12.38 on fund liquidation and worries that resumed Black Sea shipments could cut into US export demand. 🌾 Dec corn gained 3 cents to about $4.52 on bargain buying, while wheat posted its ninth loss in 10 sessions. 🚢 Sea of Azov Reopens to Grain Ships: Russia has issued permits letting grain vessels leave the Sea of Azov through November 15, after traffic was halted on July 10 by Ukrainian drone attacks. ⚠️ With no ceasefire in place, some ships are expected to travel under Russian naval escort. 🏦 Fed Holds Rates Steady: The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% as inflation rose to 3.7% in September. 📊 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear signal for December, and traders still expect a hike next month but fewer increases in 2027. 🇺🇸 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. 🚀 Total US soybean export sales are running 81% ahead of last year’s pace. ⛽ Ethanol Output Hits 13-Week High: US ethanol production climbed to 1.12 million barrels per day, up 2.2% from the prior week, with stocks nearly steady at 24.52 million barrels. 💰 Corn Belt ethanol margins strengthened to between 25 and 65 cents per gallon positive. 🎲 Kalshi Weighs New Safeguards: CEO Tarek Mansour says the prediction market is exploring ways to protect users from losses and is open to raising the minimum age from 18 to 21. 🔒 The company has already set a $2,500 monthly deposit limit for users under 21 and will place them in special accounts that discourage risky behavior.

  2. 1d ago

    Corn is Worth $3.50/bu in North Dakota + Fed to Hold Rates Despite Inflation

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn and soybean futures extended their losses Tuesday, with Dec26 corn down ~6 cents to near $4.59/bu and Jan27 soybeans off nearly 10 cents to $12.43/bu. 📉 A sharp drop in the Brazilian real after Lula’s reelection, a fast-moving harvest, and fund liquidation all weighed on prices. 🌾 Wheat futures kept sliding on currency headwinds and optimism that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could normalize Black Sea trade flows. 🕊️ Dec26 SRW wheat fell ~6 cents to near $6.10/bu, while Dec26 HRW dropped ~9 cents to around $6.51/bu. 🏦 The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week, with markets pricing in a ~90% chance of a pause per CME’s FedWatch tool. 🔥 But with September inflation at 3.7%, traders see an ~80% chance of a quarter-point hike in December and possibly more in 2027. 🌱 Syngenta is targeting a Hong Kong IPO as early as January 2027 at a valuation of at least $66 billion, potentially raising $5-10 billion. 💰 The Sinochem-controlled company plans to sell a 10-20% stake to cut debt and invest in seeds and crop protection. 🪙 Amundi expects gold to rebound to around $4,500/oz after a selloff pushed prices below $4,000, their lowest since mid-July. 📊 Central bank buying and safe-haven demand could support a recovery, though the firm doubts gold will hit $5,000 by year-end. 🌦️ A strong El Niño could cut Brazil’s soybean crop to 163.6mmt versus 181.2mmt under neutral conditions, according to Serasa Experian, with most losses in the west-central region. 🇧🇷 Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean planting reached 40% complete, ahead of last year’s 36% pace.

  3. 2d ago

    Soybeans Hit 2-Month Low on Quick Harvest, Brazil Currency Plunge

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Harvest Progress: US corn harvest jumped to 60% complete last week, still trailing the 66% five-year average, while soybeans hit 79% and pulled ahead of the 77% average. 🌾 Winter wheat planting reached 76%, just shy of its 77% average pace. 📉 Soybean & Corn Futures: Jan27 soybeans fell 16 cents to about $12.53, a two-month low, after Brazil’s real plunged roughly 12% following Lula’s surprise reelection. 🌽 Dec26 corn slipped a penny to $4.55, its lowest close since early July, pressured by soybeans, harvest progress, and weaker crude. 🇧🇷 Brazil Election Fallout: Lula’s win is a setback for Brazil’s farm lobby, which backed Flávio Bolsonaro and has clashed with Lula over land rights, environmental rules, and taxes. 🤝 The group now plans to work with Congress and the executive branch to push for relief for struggling farmers. 🚢 Wheat & the Black Sea: Dec26 SRW wheat dropped 9 cents to $6.16, its lowest since early July, on reports Russia is weighing proposals to secure Black Sea grain shipments. ⚠️ Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 62% in September, and rerouting through the Baltic hasn’t yet made up the difference. 📊 CFTC COT Changes: Starting in December, the CFTC will release its Commitments of Traders report twice a week, on Wednesdays and Fridays at 2:30pm CST. 🗓️ We’ll keep publishing full Fund Tracker charts weekly and update our Daily Fund Tracker as new data drops. 🚛 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections hit 2.5mmt, up 20% week over week, with China taking about 67% and year-to-date totals running 42% ahead of last year. 📦 Corn shipments came in at the low end of expectations at 625,233mt, while wheat disappointed at 183,824mt, with year-to-date totals down 35%.

  4. 3d ago

    SHOCK Brazil Election Sends Soybeans Lower + USDA "Processing Error"

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇧🇷 Lula da Silva won a fourth term in Sunday’s runoff, edging out Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2% and becoming the first candidate in Brazil’s modern democracy to lose the first round but win the runoff. Bolsonaro is refusing to recognize the result; his Liberal Party now holds the most seats in both chambers of Congress, and the upset ranks as one of the biggest misses in US prediction market history after Kalshi had Bolsonaro’s odds as high as 88%. 💱 The Brazilian real plunged more than 10% against the US dollar as the “Bolsonaro trade” unwinds, adding to worries over debt, fiscal health, and the disputed result. A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans cheaper on the world market, which is pressuring soybean futures this morning, with corn and wheat also trading lower. 🌽 The USDA corrected its September corn data after a processing error in Kansas and Nebraska, raising Nebraska’s yield to 182 bpa and cutting Kansas to 118 bpa. The national September yield was nudged up to 178.8 bpa, while the October forecast of 181.2 bpa stayed unchanged, adding to doubts about the reliability of USDA crop estimates. 📉 Large money managers were net sellers of 82k corn contracts for the week ending October 20 and have cut their net long by 250k contracts since peaking in mid-September. Funds also sold 28k soybean contracts and 19k SRW wheat contracts. 🫘 USDA’s Brazil attaché forecasts a record 184mmt Brazilian soybean crop, up 2% from last year but below USDA’s official 186mmt estimate. Good rainfall has helped planting, but persistent rain and severe weather in southern Brazil, along with El Niño’s expected effect on harvest, are risks to watch. 🚢 USDA reported a flash sale Friday of 116,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Even so, accumulated corn sales are still running 34% behind last year’s pace. 🐄 Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was strongly bullish, with September placements falling 12% year over year to a record monthly low of 1.78 million head, the third straight month of record lows. Heifers made up 37.8% of cattle on feed, down slightly from last year, which suggests some producers are holding back replacements but are not yet expanding herds aggressively.

  5. 6d ago

    US Corn Export Sales are Down Sharply - Lower Prices to Spark Demand??

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚢 Export Sales Surge—Soybean sales hit 2.8mmt for the week ending Oct 15, well above the prior week and four-week average, with China the top buyer. Corn sales also beat expectations at 1.5mmt (Mexico leading), while wheat disappointed again at just 239,600mt. 📈 🇨🇳 China Flash Sales Continue—USDA reported another flash sale Thursday of 202,000mt of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. Since October 14, China has bought roughly 2.4mmt (89mil bushels) of US soybeans via flash sales. 🫘 📊 Grain Futures Update—Dec26 corn slipped ~2¢ to $4.61, and Dec26 SRW wheat fell ~2¢ to $6.25 on harvest pressure and Black Sea peace talk hopes, as a ceasefire could unleash a flood of cheap wheat exports. Nov26 soybeans bucked the trend, climbing ~8¢ to $12.53 on the strong export sales print. 🌾 💧 Drought Monitor—Scattered Corn Belt rains brought no notable relief, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, Indiana, and central Illinois as 30% of the region sits in drought. Meanwhile, rainfall in the Southern Plains improved conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma, giving the HRW wheat crop a welcome boost. 🌧️ 🇧🇷 South American Weather—Southern Brazil is forecast to get 1–5 inches above-normal rainfall over the next 15 days, with flooding risks in Paraná that could slow corn and soybean planting. Argentina stays dry through mid-November, though the wheat impact is expected to be minimal. 🌎 🛢️ Oil Prices Spike—Brent jumped 4% to $113.17 (highest close since early May), and WTI rose 2.4% to $99.47 after a Houthi drone targeted Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and a tanker was struck near Oman. The US is reportedly moving a third carrier strike group toward the region, though Middle East crude exports have largely recovered above prewar levels. ⚠️

  6. Oct 22

    Putin is Ready to Talk, Wheat Drops + Did Corn Prices Just Bottom?

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇷🇺🇺🇦 US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to resume in November, possibly in Abu Dhabi, after Putin agreed following Wednesday’s meeting with US officials. The talks will focus on post-war security guarantees, though deep divisions remain and US-Ukraine ties have frayed after Trump’s diesel export deal with Russia. 🌾📉 Wheat futures tumbled on hopes for improved Black Sea shipping, with Dec26 Chicago wheat down 15 cents to $6.28 and Dec26 KC wheat off 18 cents to $6.73. Corn bounced from a 14-week low to close up about a penny at $4.63, while Nov26 soybeans slipped 3 cents to $12.45 under harvest pressure and record crop expectations. 🌊🌎 Investors are bracing for a potentially historic El Niño, with money managers adjusting portfolios for market disruptions that could last into early 2027. Droughts and floods could hit crop production and push food prices higher, with Indonesia, Brazil, and Colombia flagged as most vulnerable. 🇨🇳🫘 USDA announced more soybean flash sales Wednesday, including 134,000mt (5mil bushels) to China for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 165,000mt (6mil bushels) to Spain for the same marketing year. ⛽🌽 US ethanol production climbed to a five-week high at 1.094mil barrels per day, up 2.7% from the prior week but down 1.6% year over year. Stocks rose to 24.56mil barrels, and Corn Belt margins strengthened to a range of 20 to 65 cents per gallon positive. ₿📈 Bitcoin jumped as much as 2.4% to $84,737 Wednesday alongside tech stocks, fueled by strong earnings and AI enthusiasm, with spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $2.3 billion over the past month. Analysts cautioned the rally may reflect short covering rather than sustained demand, especially with trading volume remaining flat.

  7. Oct 21

    Nebraska Corn Growers are FURIOUS with USDA

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽❓ The Nebraska Corn Board is pressing the USDA for answers after Nebraska’s corn yield was raised 11 bu/acre in the October Crop Production report, following a 6-bushel cut from August to September, even as good-to-excellent ratings have slid since mid-July. The board wants survey counts and response rates, warning that farmers are growing reluctant to fill out USDA surveys as trust in the reports erodes. 📉🌾 Corn fell for a sixth straight session Tuesday, with Dec26 down 5 cents to $4.62 and Nov26 soybeans down ~5 cents to $12.48 on fund liquidation and dry Corn Belt weather that should speed harvest. Expectations for a record soybean crop outweighed renewed Chinese buying, while wheat followed corn and beans lower. 🇨🇳🚢 China’s imports of US soybeans rebounded to 360,878mt in September, up from zero a year ago, but Brazil still supplied 10.7mmt, about 90% of the month’s total. Year-to-date, US imports are down 34% to 11.06mmt while Brazil’s are up 3.4% to 65.84mmt, and China has now bought just over half of its 25mmt purchase commitment. 🇧🇷🗳️ Brazil’s farm lobby could gain major influence if Flávio Bolsonaro, the heavy favorite at ~80% on Polymarket, wins the presidency, since he has pledged to let the farm caucus pick his agriculture minister. Agribusiness would push for cheaper credit and looser environmental rules, though his push for closer US ties could create friction with Brazil’s key buyer, China. ⚡🫘 USDA announced a flash sale of 612,000mt (22mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery on Tuesday. China has bought 2mmt (77mil bu) through flash sales over the past week, and 2.084mmt across five sales since October 14th.

  8. Oct 20

    MORE Farm Aid - Trump Announces Another $8 BILLION in Payments

    Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 📉 Corn and soybean futures closed lower on Monday, with Dec26 corn dropping about 7 cents to $4.67, its lowest settlement since mid-August, and Nov26 soybeans falling 8 cents to roughly $12.54. Dry harvest weather, funds selling out of long positions, and expectations of a record soybean crop weighed on prices, and wheat followed them lower. 🌾 🚜 The US harvest made big gains last week, with corn 44% complete and soybeans 64% complete, but both still trail their five-year averages. Iowa corn and Nebraska soybeans are furthest behind, and winter wheat planting had its slowest week on record. 🐢 🇧🇷 AgRural reports Brazilian soybean planting is 26% complete, slightly ahead of last year’s pace, helped by rain across central Brazil. First-crop corn planting is behind last year at 48%, as heavy rain in the south has slowed fieldwork. 🌧️ 🚢 Weekly US soybean export inspections hit 2 million metric tons, up 80% from the prior week, with China taking about 64% of the total. Corn and wheat inspections both fell well short of expectations, with wheat shipments down 36% year to date. 📦 ⚡ The USDA announced flash sales on Monday of 114,000mt of soybeans to China and 261,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. These new sales add to the recent strength in soybean export demand. 🤝 📈 Tech stocks rebounded Monday, lifting the Nasdaq 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.4% after a rough week driven by hot inflation, doubts about AI profitability, and rising oil prices. Chip stocks led the recovery, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index broke an eight-session losing streak. 💻

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About

Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

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  • Creator
    Joe Vaclavik
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.8K
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
  • Show Website
    Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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