In this episode of the IIF Global Regulatory Update podcast, host Philippe Brahin, Head of Insurance and NBFI at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), speaks with Jérôme Haegeli, Group Chief Economist of Swiss Re and Head of the Swiss Re Institute, about the latest outlook for the global insurance sector and the implications of a rapidly changing risk landscape. Fresh from the Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous, Jérôme discusses the mood across global insurance and reinsurance markets and reflects on the findings of two recent sigma reports: World Insurance 2026 and Time to Build, Swiss Re Institute’s analysis of the emerging global capital expenditure supercycle. The conversation examines how insurers are adapting to shifting market dynamics, geopolitical fragmentation, and emerging sources of risk. The conversation examines why Swiss Re views 2026 as an inflection point for the insurance industry. While pricing conditions and premium growth are normalizing after several strong years, Jérôme argues that deeper structural forces are reshaping the sector, including geopolitical fragmentation, supply-chain disruption, AI adoption, energy security concerns, climate risks, and a new wave of infrastructure investment. Drawing on findings from the sigma reports, he explains how insurance serves as a critical shock absorber in the global economy and why preserving open capital markets and cross-border diversification remains essential to maintaining affordable and effective risk transfer. The conversation also considers the implications of fragmentation and regulatory divergence for global reinsurance markets and financial resilience. The episode further explores Swiss Re Institute’s thesis that the world is entering a capex supercycle, driven by investment in AI infrastructure, data centers, energy systems, and industrial transformation. Jérôme discusses how these trends are changing the nature of risk accumulation, creating new dependencies across networks, cloud infrastructure, energy grids, and digital ecosystems. He explains why insurability, rather than capital availability, may be the key constraint in supporting future growth, and what insurers, reinsurers, supervisors, and policymakers should take away from these developments. The episode concludes with a forward-looking assessment of how AI, infrastructure investment, and evolving systemic risks could shape the insurance sector in the years ahead.