The Capitalist Investor Strategic Wealth Partners

The team discusses various topics in this episode of The Capitalist Investor. They cover the looming government shutdown and its implications, the autoworkers strike, Joe Biden's visit to the picket line, and the closure of Target stores due to theft. They also touch on the inflationary environment and the potential impact on the market.

Key Takeaways:
The government shutdown may not be as urgent as previous ones, but it can still have significant effects on travel and certain government services.The autoworkers' strike is primarily about higher pay, but the transition to electric vehicles could lead to job losses in the industry.The closure of Target stores in Chicago, Seattle, and San Francisco is due to theft, which could lead to higher prices for consumers.The market has been reacting negatively due to concerns about inflation and the potential for higher interest rates.

This week, we want to take a step back and focus on planning in times of economic uncertainty. We found a great article from CNBC titled "The Three Money Moves Wealthy Americans are Most Likely to Make in Times of Economic Uncertainty." Let's dive into the key points and expand on what successful people are doing during uncertain times.

According to Northwest Mutual, 84% of the wealthiest Americans have a long-term financial plan that accounts for economic ups and downs, compared to only 52% of the general population. This statistic surprises us because it's rare for someone to walk in with a legitimate financial plan. Planning for the unknown is crucial to alleviate anxiety and ensure a smooth transition into retirement.
When it comes to retirement, people often wonder how they will pay their bills and maintain their lifestyle. Financial planning helps remove this anxiety by providing a roadmap for the future. The more prepared you are, the more confident you'll be in your ability to navigate different scenarios. It's essential to test how the future could play out and understand how you will respond in various situations.
A financial plan is not just about investments; it's about setting goals, developing strategies, and using the right tools. Many people focus solely on their investments without considering the bigger picture. It's crucial to understand why you're saving and what your retirement goals are. Picking the right retirement date and ensuring you have enough savings are essential factors to consider.
Asset allocation is another critical aspect of planning for ups and downs. The stock market doesn't go straight up; there are ups and downs along the way. Taking a long-term perspective and having a diversified portfolio can help weather market volatility. It's important to remember that investing is a marathon, not a sprint.
Seven out of ten wealthy Americans are working with an advisor. While not all advisors are created equal, one of the most significant benefits of working with an advisor is avoiding behavioral finance errors. Emotional investing can lead to poor decision-making, especially during market turbulence. An advisor provides a detached perspective and helps clients make rational choices based on logic and historical data.
An advisor is like a retirement CFO, helping clients make informed financial decisions. They can assist with retirement timing, spending strategies, and even major financial decisions like home renovations. By having a coordinated plan that takes into account investments, taxes, and estate planning, clients can make better financial choices and optimize their long-term outcomes.
It's not enough to have a plan; you must also follow through and execute it. The best time to go through the planning process is when the waters are calm. Crisis planning is not ideal, as it can lead to rushed decisions and poor outcomes. By having a well-mapped-out plan in advance, you can have confidence in its success.
Financial plans should be regularly reviewed and updated to reflect changing circumstances. Factors like inflation, taxes, and health can impact your financial situation. By refreshing your plan annually, you can ensure that it remains aligned with your goals and adjust as needed. Building conservatism into the plan, using future projected rates of return, and considering tax efficiency are all crucial elements of staying committed to the plan.
Remember, financial planning is not a one-time event; it's an ongoing process. Regularly reviewing and updating your plan ensures that it remains aligned with your goals and helps you make informed decisions. By following these three money moves, you can position yourself for financial security and peace of mind in times of economic uncertainty.
A day in the life of a Financial Advisor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tfB-SSYL1A

The Capitalist Investor
Hello, and welcome to this week's episode of The Capitalist Investor. Joining us today is Diamond Hands D, joined by the A Team - Tony the Tiger and Cool Hand Luke. In this episode, we'll be discussing some of the key topics that have been making headlines recently, including Apple releasing their newest iPhone, CEO’s conflicting opinions & the failed EV road trip. Let's dive in and explore these themes in more detail.
Apple’s iPhone 15
Apple just had their yearly event where they unveil their latest & greatest widgets & gadgets including their newest iPhone. Will these features be enough to get consumers to buy the latest & greatest technology from Apple? The team dives into their thoughts around the event and the new technologies.
Another part of Apple’s story is their reliance on China including 20% of their revenue and a large part of their supply chain. Will the tensions in China impact Apple?
The Economy: A Tale of Two CEO’s
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan, has been vocal about his concerns regarding the economy. He predicted a "financial hurricane" and believes that the booming economy narrative is wrong. 
On the other hand, David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, is feeling more optimistic. He believes that the chances of avoiding a recession are higher than they were a year ago and that things are better than they were a year ago. However, it's worth noting that both banks have tightened their lending standards, which could be an indication of underlying concerns.
Who is right, and who is wrong?
Debt & Electric Vehicles
One of the key factors impacting the economy is the rising student debt crisis. With $1.6 trillion in student debt, Americans are feeling the squeeze. As one of our hosts pointed out, the average person with student debt will have to shell out around $200 a month to repay their loans. This means that $100 billion a year is being diverted from the economy to pay off student loans. This could have a significant impact on consumer spending and overall economic growth.
Another topic that has been making headlines is the push for electric vehicles (EVs). While there is a growing interest in EVs, one of the major challenges is the lack of charging infrastructure. As our hosts discussed, the energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, attempted to showcase the feasibility of EVs by embarking on a road trip. However, her plan backfired when it was revealed that a staffer had blocked off a charging station with a gas car. This incident highlights the ongoing challenges of transitioning to EVs and the need for more investment in charging infrastructure.
Future Implications
As we look to the future, there are many uncertainties. The economy is at a crossroads, with conflicting opinions from CEOs and concerns about rising debt. The push for EVs continues, but without adequate charging infrastructure, widespread adoption may be challenging. And as cancel culture continues to gain momentum, it raises questions about free speech and its impact on businesses and individuals.
In conclusion, the latest Apple event, the state of the economy, and the challenges of cancel culture all have significant implications for our society. As we navigate these issues, it's important to consider the potential impact and make informed decisions. Only time will tell how these themes will shape our future, but one thing is certain: change is inevitable, and we must be prepared to adapt..

The Capitalist Investor
Hello, and welcome to this week's episode of The Capitalist Investor. Joining us today is Diamond Hands D, joined by the A Team - Tony the Tiger and Cool Hand Luke. In this episode, we'll be discussing some of the key topics that have been making headlines recently, including the odds of a recession, the impact of rising oil prices, and the state of the labor market. Let's dive in and explore these themes in more detail.
Recession Odds
One of the main topics of discussion in recent months has been the possibility of a recession in the US. Goldman Sachs recently lowered their recession odds to 15%, citing cooling inflation and a robust job market as factors that could help prevent a downturn. However, there are still differing opinions on the matter, with Bloomberg consensus placing the odds at around 60%.
When considering the likelihood of a recession, it's important to look at key indicators such as the labor market. As Tony mentioned, having a job is a significant factor in maintaining a positive state of mind and financial stability. With unemployment currently at 3.8%, it's clear that the job market is still strong. However, it's worth noting that job openings have hit a two-year low, which could be a sign of tightening in the labor market.
As we mentioned, the labor market is a key indicator of the health of the economy. While unemployment has seen a slight increase, it's important to consider the reasons behind this. The rise in labor force participation suggests that more people are getting back to work, which is a positive sign. However, it's worth questioning why these individuals were not in the workforce to begin with and what impact their return will have on the overall labor market.
Oil Prices
Another factor that could potentially impact the economy is the recent spike in oil prices. Saudi Arabia's decision to extend production cuts has contributed to the increase, with prices reaching $86 a barrel. This has led to a rise in gas prices, with the high recently being $3.81 per gallon on average being reached. The airline industry has also warned of potential spikes in fuel costs, which could have implications for travel and freight prices.
The rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflation and its impact on consumer spending. As Luke mentioned, inflation is a persistent issue that needs to be carefully managed. If inflation continues to rise, it could put a strain on consumers' wallets and lead to a decrease in spending power. This, in turn, could have a negative impact on the overall economy.
Work From Home
There has also been a shift towards hybrid work models, with many individuals working remotely for part of the week. While this may offer flexibility, it's important to consider the impact on productivity. Studies have shown that working from home can lead to a 20% decrease in productivity. This raises questions about the long-term viability of remote work and its impact on career growth.
Future Implications
The topics discussed in this episode have significant implications for the economy and individuals alike. The possibility of a recession, rising oil prices, and the state of the labor market all have the potential to impact consumer spending, inflation, and overall economic growth. It's important for individuals and businesses to stay informed and adapt to these changing conditions.
Looking ahead, it's clear that there are challenges and uncertainties on the horizon. The impact of rising oil prices, the potential for a recession, and the changing dynamics of the labor market all require careful attention and analysis. However, as Americans, we have a history of resilience and finding solutions to overcome challenges. By staying informed and proactive, we can navigate these uncertain times.

The Capitalist Investor
In this episode of The Capitalist Investor podcast, the hosts discuss generational investment themes and how the American dream has changed over time. They highlight past investment themes such as the development of the internet, cloud computing, and AI, and speculate on future investment themes like robotics and self-storage spaces. They also explore how societal changes have impacted the American dream, with fewer people getting married and having children at a young age, and a shift towards a more mobile and minimalistic lifestyle. The hosts also touch on a new tax rule regarding 401(k) contributions and the economic impact of hurricanes.
American Dream
The American Dream has long been associated with the idea of achieving success through hard work and upward mobility. However, as society and technology continue to evolve, so too does the definition of the American Dream. In this thought-provoking episode, we explore the generational investment themes that have shaped different eras and discuss the changing landscape of the American Dream.
As the American Dream evolves, so too do the behaviors and priorities of different generations. The traditional path of getting married young, starting a family, and buying a house is no longer the norm. Delayed marriage, fewer children, and a preference for experiences over material possessions have become more prevalent.
Diamond Hands and Luke discuss the economic implications of these changing behaviors. While the American Dream may no longer revolve around homeownership, it does not necessarily mean a decline in productivity or economic growth. In fact, the increased spending on travel, dining out, and other experiences can stimulate various sectors of the economy.
However, Luke raises concerns about the declining birth rate and its potential impact on productivity and innovation. With fewer young minds entering the workforce, there may be a shortage of labor and a decline in economic output. This issue highlights the need for a balance between personal freedom and societal needs.
Potential Investment Themes
Throughout history, technological advancements have played a significant role in shaping investment themes and transforming industries. From the development of the internet in the mid-90s to the rise of cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years, technology has revolutionized the way we live, work, and invest.
Luke highlights some of the key investment themes that have emerged as a result of technological advancements. He mentions the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, the rise of smartphones and mobile technology, and the current excitement surrounding AI. These themes have not only driven innovation but have also presented lucrative investment opportunities for those who were able to identify and capitalize on them.
While technology has undoubtedly been a driving force behind many investment themes, it is essential to consider other sectors and industries that may present opportunities for growth. Luke brings up the example of self-storage spaces, a non-technology-related investment theme that is gaining traction. With people accumulating more possessions and a reluctance to part with them, self-storage facilities have become a viable investment option.
Another investment theme Luke mentions is the growing popularity of trailer parks. Despite the stigma associated with trailer parks, they offer affordable housing options in a time when the cost of homeownership is becoming increasingly unattainable for many. This trend reflects a shift in the American Dream, with individuals prioritizing freedom and mobility over traditional homeownership.

The Capitalist Investor
Welcome to this week’s “The Capitalist Investor” podcast. The recurring theme of a potential recession looms large in our discussion along with NVDA’s earnings report on the horizon. We are hearing about more strains of COVID as well in the headlines. Is a recession & COVID back on the table?
NVDA, Earnings, Recession
NVDA has been the darling stock of the year with all eyes on NVDA. Earnings season is almost over, so the team discusses their final thoughts on earnings as we end Q2. Can NVDA deliver what the market expects? Or is the hype overblown? All of this price action in the market is happening at a time when the narrative has shifted from a recession to a “soft landing”. While many analysts initially predicted a recession at the beginning of the year, there seems to have been a shift in sentiment over the past few weeks. Historical indicators such as inverted yield curves and high debt-to-GDP ratios suggest that caution is warranted. As one of our hosts mentioned, every indicator that has predicted a recession in the past is currently flashing warning signs. The recent drop in tax revenue and the reacceleration of inflation further add to the concerns.
COVID Back In Action
Another significant concern is the resurgence of COVID. With new variants emerging and talk of mask mandates returning, there is growing anxiety about the potential for another wave of infections and potential shutdowns. The market has already reacted, with stocks like Novavax and Moderna seeing significant gains as investors anticipate the need for new vaccines. However, the impact of COVID on the economy and the market remains uncertain, and the potential for further disruptions cannot be ignored.
Connect with Derek Gabrielsen
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