Coffee & Cap Rates: Commercial Real Estate Podcast

Ariel Property Advisors
  • 4.9 (9)
  • Investing
  • Updated Biweekly

The Coffee & Cap Rates Podcast delivers the latest insights on New York City’s commercial real estate market. Hosted by Ariel Property Advisors, it offers expert analysis, market trends, and timely conversations with industry leaders.

  1. 6d ago

    132. Inside Vornado’s NYC Empire: Penn District & Beyond featuring Glen Weiss

    In the latest episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, sits down with Glen J. Weiss, Executive Vice President of Office Leasing and Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust. In this wide-ranging conversation, they discuss Glen’s career and Vornado’s dominant position in New York City’s office and Manhattan high street retail sectors. The discussion dives deep into major initiatives, including the 350 Park joint venture and the monumental Penn District—a 9-million-square-foot portfolio of buildings and land surrounding New York’s Pennsylvania Station. Finally, they explore the data behind how the Manhattan office market has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. • Read more about Ariel Property Advisors at arielpa.nyc • Learn about Vornado Realty Trust at vno.com

  2. Sep 16

    131. Brooklyn Real Estate: Development, Distress & Opportunity in 2026 featuring Sean R. Kelly, Esq.

    In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, speaks with Sean R. Kelly, Partner at Ariel Property Advisors, about Brooklyn’s commercial real estate market in the first half of 2026. The conversation covers the borough’s strong development activity, rising land values, the impact of zoning and tax incentives, and growing distress in the rent-stabilized multifamily market. Key topics include: Development: Transaction volume reached approximately $1 billion, up 60% year over year, driven in part by zoning changes and the 485X tax abatement. Rent-Stabilized Multifamily: Rising operating costs, regulatory pressures, and 0% rent increases are prompting more long-term and generational owners to consider selling. Market Outlook: Sean and Shimon discuss continued activity across development, free-market multifamily, and rent-stabilized assets during the second half of 2026. More information is available in Ariel Property Advisors’ Brooklyn 2026 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

  3. Sep 9

    130. Bronx CRE Mid-Year 2026: Multifamily Challenges & Development Opportunities featuring Jason M. Gold & Daniel Mahfar

    In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discussed Ariel Property Advisors’ Bronx 2026 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Senior Director Jason M. Gold and Director Daniel Mahfar. Topics included the current state of the Bronx real estate market, with a specific focus on multifamily housing and development. Multifamily Housing Market:In the first half of the year, dollar volume for multifamily transactions in the Bronx was approximately $350 million, a 36% decrease compared to the same period last year.Market activity is driven in part by lenders and borrowers navigating loan maturities and short sales.The market is characterized by older housing stock that is predominantly rent-stabilized where the average price per unit fell to $69,000. Cap rates on these assets are nearing 9%, and GRM is approximately 5.4%.Projections for the second half of the year suggest these metrics will decline further, with GRM possibly reaching four times and price per door averaging between $50,000 and $60,000.Development Market:Development has been a bright spot in the Bronx, showing a 14% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter increase in dollar volume.While transaction volume was slightly down, there is high demand for development sites of various sizes, often resulting in double-digit competing offers.The average price per buildable square foot on an "as of right" basis is trending toward $110, which is the highest in the market's history.Developers are actively looking to leverage the "City of Yes" initiative, which influences valuations for sites with additional air rights.Major upcoming projects, such as the Ferry Point casino, are expected to contribute significantly to the area.Future Outlook:Participants expressed optimism for the next six months, anticipating increased investor confidence as the current administration's policies become clearer.It is expected that transaction volume will be slightly higher, while dollar volume is projected to remain relatively stable.Development is expected to remain a popular and competitive investment area in the borough.More information about the Bronx market is available here: Ariel Property Advisors’ Bronx 2026 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report

  4. Sep 2

    129. Manhattan CRE Mid-Year 2026: What’s Driving Investment Across NYC’s Market featuring Michael A. Tortorici, Chris Brodhead, & Howard Raber

    In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discussed Ariel’s Manhattan 2026 Mid- Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Founding Partner Michael A. Tortorici, Senior Director Christoffer Brodhead, and Director Howard Raber. The speakers noted a 50% increase in dollar volume to $9.87 billion compared to the first half of 2025. The conversation covered several key asset classes: Office Market: The market shows three primary trends, including strong performance for Class A buildings and ongoing repositioning for Class B and C buildings, some of which are being converted to residential use. Development: There was a 54% year-over-year increase in development volume to $1.7 billion. Developers are leveraging initiatives like "City of Yes," tax incentives for office-to-residential conversions (467m program), and the Midtown South mixed-use plan to find opportunities. Currently, 16,000 units are in the pipeline for office-to-residential conversions.Multifamily: Investment activity grew significantly, with dollar volume rising 93% year-over-year to $2.34 billion across 109 transactions. Institutional investors have returned to Manhattan's predominantly free-market sector. While values remain below the 2017 peak, there has been growth compared to 2025 and 2024.Retail: High Street retail is experiencing a recovery, with rents in prime areas like Soho meeting or exceeding pre-2020 highs. There is renewed enthusiasm from institutional capital and high-net-worth families for retail assets that offer long-term, mark-to-market opportunities.The speakers concluded by expressing optimism for an active, productive second half of the year. Additional market insights are available in Ariel’s Manhattan 2026 Mid- Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

  5. Aug 26

    128. NYC Commercial Real Estate: Industry Experts Discuss Challenges, Opportunities & the 2026 Outlook

    In this special episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, moderates a panel discussion recorded at Ariel Property Advisors’ Separating Signal from Noise: NYC Investment Sales in 1H 2026 event on July 30, 2026. The panel features Ralph Bumbaca, Regional President, Metro NY at TD Bank; Robert S. Nelson, President of Nelson Management Group LTD.; and Bryan Kelly, Principal & President of Development at Gotham Organization. The panelists discuss the challenges and opportunities shaping New York City’s commercial real estate market, including rising operating costs, insurance, legal and regulatory challenges, development complexities, financing conditions, and the outlook for the market. Watch the full panel discussion on YouTube.

  6. Aug 19

    127. NYC Investment Sales 1H 2026: Following the Capital, Not the Noise with Shimon Shkury

    Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, shares his outlook on New York City’s investment sales market in the first half of 2026 in this special episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, recorded at Ariel Property Advisors’ Separating Signal from Noise: NYC Investment Sales in 1H 2026 event on July 30, 2026. Shimon examines where capital is investing across NYC’s multifamily, office, development, affordable housing, and retail markets, highlighting the role of reset valuations, fundamentals, policy alignment, and distress in shaping investment activity. Watch the full presentation on YouTube.

  7. Aug 12

    126. NYC Multifamily Q2 2026: Market Growth, Financing & the Outlook for 2H 2026 featuring Victor Sozio & Matt Swerdlow

    In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discussed Ariel Property Advisors’ Q2 2026 Multifamily Quarter in Review with Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director in Capital Services. The trio discussed the performance of the multifamily real estate market during the second quarter of 2022, including: Market Growth: The multifamily market totaled nearly $2.5 billion.Asset Class Performance:Free Market: This segment saw continued rent growth and strong investor competition. Manhattan and Brooklyn remain attractive for these types of assets.Rent Stabilized: This market faces significant struggles, with low trading volumes in outer boroughs like the Bronx, Queens, and Northern Manhattan. Factors contributing to this include a 0% rent increase, elevated interest rates and concerns regarding regulatory risks.Affordable Housing: Project-based Section 8 housing remains a premier asset class due to federal subsidies and stability. It represents about 10% of the overall transaction volume.Financing and Debt:For rent-stabilized assets, borrowers facing maturity are advised to engage lenders early to discuss potential modifications or extensions, as property values have changed significantly.Refinancing and acquisition financing remain available through agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and CMBS, with some deals achieving 70–75% loan-to-value ratios.Future Outlook: The speakers anticipate an active second half of the year, with a strong contract pipeline pointing toward sustained or increased transaction volume in the third and fourth quarters. Despite the challenges in the rent-stabilized sector, there is notable seller motivation to transact if debt-related issues can be resolved.Access the full report here.

  8. May 12

    125. NYC Multifamily at a Crossroads | Kenny Burgos on Rent Stabilization, HSTPA & Housing Policy

    In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury sits down with Kenny Burgos, CEO of the New York Apartment Association, to discuss the current state of New York City’s multifamily housing market and the growing challenges facing the rent-stabilized sector. The conversation takes a deep dive into the long-term effects of the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act (HSTPA), including vacancy control, rising operating costs, capital constraints, declining valuations, and affordability pressures across the city’s housing stock. Together, they explore how policy changes, economic vacancy, and structural market constraints are reshaping investment activity, asset performance, and financing conditions for rent-stabilized housing in New York City — and what it may take to restore long-term stability and investment viability.

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4.9
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The Coffee & Cap Rates Podcast delivers the latest insights on New York City’s commercial real estate market. Hosted by Ariel Property Advisors, it offers expert analysis, market trends, and timely conversations with industry leaders.

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