Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Swan Bitcoin
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Swan Signal Live brings you interviews, news, analysis, and commentary on Bitcoin, macro, finance, and how Bitcoin is the foundation for a brighter future for us all.

  1. 12/20/2025

    Why Bitcoin Went Sideways in 2025: ETF Flows, Gold Outperformance, and the Patience Edge

    Brady and John open by owning missed 2025 price targets, framing the year as a sideways-to-down “crab market” around the high-$80KsThey unpack why “Bitcoin clicking” for the world happens far slower than new believers expect, even with ETFs and a pro-Bitcoin political backdropThe show marks the HODL meme’s origin (GameKyuubi’s “I AM HODLING” post) and uses it to reinforce long-horizon discipline BitcoinTalk+1They revisit Michael Saylor’s 2013 “Bitcoin days are numbered” tweet as a case study in changing your mind (commonly dated Dec 19, 2013) CryptoPotatoMacro recap includes a cooler-than-expected CPI print (with caveats about data quality) and what it could mean for Fed cuts and liquidityFiscal commentary highlights “victory laps” over still-massive deficits and why the debt train likely only slows, not stopsThey critique the idea of pushing 100% stock ownership as a policy goal, arguing it structurally advantages existing asset holders via compoundingA Jeff Gundlach clip anchors the “patience is alpha” idea: long-horizon winners often look wrong early, forcing managers to churn BitcoinTalkThey compare gold’s strong year to Bitcoin’s lag, noting ETF flows (IBIT) remain heavy despite negative YTD performance and debating “sell vs buy” interpretationsQuick hits include an options-market “covered call yield” theory for capped rallies, and an update on Samourai Wallet clemency chatter as a privacy battleground Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.    Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira. Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

    57 min

  2. 12/12/2025

    Bitcoin Cycles Are Breaking: The Fed’s “Not-QE” QE + Institutional Floor at $90k?

    Bitcoin chops around ~$90k after a brief move toward ~$94k, highlighting a “flat net” year vs late-2024 levelsBrady revisits a long-running thesis: institutions, corporates, and nation-states may be dampening the classic four-year boom/bust cycleMatthew Sigel (via Bernstein) is cited arguing for an elongated cycle, limited ETF outflows during a ~30% correction, and higher long-range price targetsThe show contrasts Bitcoin and gold narratives, using a long-cycle framework to discuss “debasement trade” environments and why hard assets can rotate vs equitiesThe Fed’s latest moves are framed as balance-sheet expansion via “reserve management purchases” of T-bills—QE-by-another-name and “money printing,” even if not labeled QEA Supreme Court case is discussed regarding presidential removal authority of federal officials, and why the Fed is viewed as a politically sensitive “special case”Michael Saylor posts a cryptic “guess the bank” photo (identified by viewers as JPMorgan HQ), fueling speculation about warming big-bank relationshipsBitGo receives conditional OCC approval to convert to a national trust bank, emphasizing 100% reserves and nationwide digital-asset custody authorityDo Kwon is sentenced (15 years) for the Terra/Luna collapse; the hosts discuss “orange-washing” and how Bitcoin branding can be used to legitimize scams  podscan_TQm6EBLYhPKvPQVIQoum6dy9GaD2UiYA Satoshi’s final public post anniversary is noted as a core “feature” of Bitcoin—no founder, no leader, no centralized rule-changes—followed by a Swan product and services overview Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.    Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira. Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

    54 min

  3. 12/06/2025

    Why Smart Money Isn’t Afraid of This Bitcoin Crash with Cory Klippsten

    Contrast between today’s macro backdrop and the 2021 Bitcoin peak, with tighter liquidity, higher rates, and far stronger structural support for BitcoinCory’s base case: no classic 80% “crypto winter” drawdowns anymore and a strong chance of new all-time highs in 2026John’s “yearly lows” chart framing: rising annual Bitcoin floors as proof of real accumulation and diminishing panic sellingLarry Fink, Harvard, sovereign wealth funds, and major banks (BofA, Vanguard, Schwab, Citi) as long-term Bitcoin buyers, not momentum touristsDiscussion of CFTC-approved spot Bitcoin trading on designated contract markets as another on-ramp for pensions and endowmentsBig critique of prediction markets and “scambling” (scam + gambling) as an extractive, nihilistic, fiat-era attempt to financialize everythingCory and John argue that crypto casinos, meme coins, and prediction markets are a giant gambling funnel that ultimately pushes people toward Bitcoin’s seriousnessBitcoin and energy: riffing on Elon Musk and Jensen Huang’s comments about Bitcoin turning stranded or excess energy into a universal monetary batteryMicroStrategy’s new USD reserve is framed as a cosmetics move to soothe institutions and make their Stretch preferreds more attractive, not a change in core strategyCory pushes back on “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” de-banking narratives, distinguishing between true systemic exclusion and individual risky accounts being dropped Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.    Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira. Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

    1h 1m

  4. 11/21/2025

    Jeff Booth: Bitcoin, Abundance & Escaping the Fiat Control System

    Jeff Booth explains why Bitcoin is the foundation for the world’s first true free market—one that naturally trends toward deflation and abundanceArgues that existing fiat systems must inflate due to debt dynamics, guaranteeing increasing centralization, surveillance, and coercionDissects Elon Musk’s claim that money will become irrelevant—agreeing only if humanity transitions to a Bitcoin-based system with privacy layersShows why AI and robotics accelerate deflation in a free market, but cause chaos and inequality inside fiat systemsBreaks down why housing, healthcare, and education prices rise despite technological efficiency: money printing, not real scarcityHelps new Bitcoiners understand price volatility and why they must build conviction through deep study—don’t just “trust”Explains Bitcoin’s resilience and the importance of decentralization, self-custody, nodes, and privacy technologies like Fedimint and CashuHighlights El Salvador as a real-world example of choosing a Bitcoin-based free-market pathDiscusses long-term security concerns (quantum, government attacks) and why open protocols evolve faster than threatsReframes Bitcoin as a civilizational protocol upgrade, not a trade—and encourages ignoring fiat pricing entirely Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.    Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira. Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

    1h 12m

  5. 11/14/2025

    Bitcoin Amsterdam, Fiscal Dominance, Stimulus Talk, and the Massive Square Adoption Milestone

    Brady joins from Bitcoin Amsterdam and reports extremely positive conference sentiment despite Bitcoin’s price consolidating around $95–105KHosts discuss how price often disconnects from fundamentals and why Bitcoin’s thesis remains intactReview of historical “conference dumps” showing that IRL Bitcoin community morale stays strong even during drawdownsDeep dive on inflation, the disappearance of the U.S. penny, and long-term fiat degradation compared to BitcoinMacro breakdown: surging U.S. interest expense now surpasses defense spending; government shutdown ends; TGA likely to release liquidityDiscussion of proposed stimulus checks, 50-year mortgages, and portable/assumable mortgages as evidence policymakers won’t tolerate asset price deflationCzech National Bank allocates $1M to Bitcoin—first known central bank to do soU.S. regulatory update: Senate draft of the Clarity Act includes explicit protections for self-custody and P2P Bitcoin transactionsSoFi becomes the first national bank to offer Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana purchases directly inside its banking appMajor adoption milestone: Square enables Bitcoin/Lightning payments at 4 million merchants with optional Bitcoin settlementMarket note: Michael Burry closes his fund, citing inability to understand today’s market—hosts contrast this with Bitcoin’s clear macro trajectory Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.    Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira. Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

    54 min

  6. 11/07/2025

    Bitcoin Crash or Bull Run Setup? with Lyn Alden

    Lyn Alden returns to discuss Bitcoin’s current cycle, macro conditions, and her new sci-fi novelPanel examines a ~25% pullback and whether it’s a pause or a new bear marketLyn argues halvings now matter less; macro and liquidity dominate price actionJohn notes 2025 doesn’t resemble 2021’s top across inflation, M2, deficits, and Fed postureBitcoin behaves more like a large-cap asset with institutional rebalancing muting extremesLyn sees mild recession risk amid fiscal dominance and a two-speed economy, with reacceleration in 2026–27TGA fill and recent repo stress cited as short-term drags on Bitcoin liquidity“OG” distribution framed as an IPO-like rotation to broader holdersTreasury company update: Strive’s 12% SATA preferred and MicroStrategy’s new issuance, with scale advantages likely to concentrate winnersDebate on France’s proposed 1% unrealized wealth tax and why Bitcoin is productive monetary savings, not luxury wealth Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.    Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira. Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

    1 hr

  7. 10/30/2025

    Inside the Mind of Satoshi with Phil Champagne

    Celebrating White Paper Day Eve, the 17th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paperGuest Phil Champagne discusses the second edition of The Book of Satoshi, which now includes newly released private email exchanges from early Bitcoin contributors revealed through the COPA v. Craig Wright lawsuitChampagne explains how these emails deepen our understanding of Satoshi Nakamoto’s thinking and confirm that Bitcoin’s creator was likely a single individual, not a teamInsights into Satoshi’s mindset, motivations, and Austrian economics background—his aim to build a decentralized monetary system free from third partiesDiscussion of Bitcoin’s early forum culture, featuring figures like Hal Finney, Gavin Andresen, Martti Malmi, and James DonaldPhil recalls Satoshi’s elegant defense of Bitcoin as “digital gold that can be transmitted electronically,” countering Peter Schiff’s criticisms before they existedA deep dive into Satoshi’s genius in solving the Byzantine Generals Problem and inventing the difficulty adjustment, enabling digital scarcityChampagne reflects on the importance of Satoshi disappearing, decentralizing Bitcoin’s ownership and ensuring its neutralityThe hosts discuss how early skepticism and problem-solving exchanges shaped Bitcoin’s robust designClosing thoughts on Bitcoin’s evolution—Layer 2, privacy, and the belief that today’s challenges will be solved just as the “impossible” Byzantine problem once was Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.    Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira. Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

    1h 1m

  8. 10/24/2025

    Why Gold is Telegraphing Bitcoin's Next Move with Vijay Boyapati

    Vijay Boyapati returns to Swan Signal Live to discuss Bitcoin’s role as pristine collateral and its integration into traditional finance.JP Morgan plans to offer loans backed by crypto ETFs—signaling growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as financial collateral.Vijay explains why Bitcoin’s properties—no counterparty risk, global liquidity, 24/7 markets—make it the best collateral ever created.Discussion on Bitcoin-backed loans: the risks of leverage, loan term structure, and how wealthy investors can borrow without selling BTC.Debate on Bitcoin’s financialization: libertarian skepticism vs. inevitability of Bitcoin entering traditional markets.Vijay breaks down Bitcoin adoption waves—from cypherpunks and libertarians to tech investors, retail, and now institutions.Analysis of gold vs. Bitcoin: gold’s dollar gains are dwarfed by its collapse in Bitcoin terms; Bitcoin is now the ultimate store of value.Conversation on U.S. debt, inflation, and AI productivity: can America grow its way out, or is currency debasement inevitable?Generational wealth divide: how Boomers benefited from inflation while Millennials’ only hope lies in Bitcoin adoption.Closing takes on CZ’s Trump pardon, Tucker Carlson’s Bitcoin skepticism, and Naval Ravikant’s misguided privacy-coin comments. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.    Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira. Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

    1h 2m
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Swan Signal Live brings you interviews, news, analysis, and commentary on Bitcoin, macro, finance, and how Bitcoin is the foundation for a brighter future for us all.

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