Tea and Crumpets

Will Brown and Adam Eagleston
  • 4.5 (8)
  • Investing
  • Biweekly

Tea and Crumpets is Formidable Asset Management's biweekly podcast that features Formidable's Managing Partner and CEO, Will Brown, and Chief Investment Officer, Adam Eagleston, CFA, talking directly about current events in relation to their expertise and business in a conversational manner.

  1. 12h ago

    Claude Back

    Is the AI boom running out of runway, or is the market finally doing the math? Will Brown and Adam Eagleston unpack a sharp technology selloff and the buzz surrounding a potential Anthropic IPO. From soaring valuations and creative accounting to circular financing arrangements, they question whether the hyperscalers' enormous AI and data-center spending can translate into sustainable profits, especially as debt costs and lease obligations mount. The conversation turns to what happens when a cap-weighted index becomes a very crowded trade. With AI-linked companies dominating the S&P 500, Will and Adam examine the disconnect between index performance and the health of individual stocks, widening credit spreads, and signs of a rotation toward value, smaller companies and other overlooked parts of the market. They also ask whether AI-driven job cuts reflect technological change, ordinary cost-cutting, or a bit of both. And AI is hardly the only risk on the board. Oil and diesel prices, conflict in Iran and Ukraine, housing weakness, the Fed's next move and the looming midterms all make an appearance. The hosts revisit historical post-midterm market gains and the painful end of 2018 while weighing what an energy shock could mean for consumers and investors. Naturally, there's room for cardigans, baseball, the Cheesecake Factory and a few other detours before they land on the case for patience, selectivity and a little less faith in the index. In this episode: Why Anthropic's IPO discussion and big AI spending commitments are putting valuations, accounting and real cash flow under the microscope. How circular financing, data-center leases and rising borrowing costs could reshape the economics of the AI buildout. Why concentration in the S&P 500 may disguise underlying weakness, and what a rotation toward value might look like. Whether reported AI-related job cuts signal a productivity breakthrough or more traditional late-cycle cost controls. How conflict, oil and diesel prices, housing weakness and Fed policy could collide with the economic outlook. What the midterms, the fourth quarter of 2018 and market history suggest about risk, opportunity and disciplined stock selection. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

  2. Oct 21

    Mid-Term Hot Takes

    With the 2026 midterms approaching, Kalee Kreider joins Will Brown and Adam Eagleston for a candid look at the political landscape—and why the current environment reminds her of the 1994 wave election. Kalee argues that voters keep swinging against whichever party holds power, as administrations mistake narrow wins for broad mandates. Her prediction? A Democratic takeover of both chambers of Congress, with the size of the shift still very much up for debate. The conversation digs into an unusually wide Senate map, from Texas, Ohio and Michigan to places like Kansas, Iowa and Alaska. Candidate quality, money and redistricting all matter, but Kalee questions how far any of them can go when the political winds change. She also explains how Washington and corporate America are already preparing for a possible change in congressional control, from shifting advisory relationships and potential investigations to a packed lame-duck legislative calendar. And politics is only part of the equation. Will, Adam and Kalee connect the expanding conflicts in Iran and Ukraine with stubborn pressure on oil, diesel and other essential inputs. They also examine the grid, permitting and power challenges facing an AI-driven data-center buildout, and what a slowdown could mean for markets. The episode closes with a distinctly Tea & Crumpets-style wager on 2028, including Kalee's unexpected theory about what 'Trump 2028' might really mean. In this episode: Why Kalee sees echoes of 1994 and expects a challenging midterm election for Republicans. The Senate races to watch, including Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and unexpected battlegrounds. How candidate quality, campaign spending and aggressive redistricting can backfire. What a shift in Congress could mean for companies, investigations and the lame-duck legislative scramble. How war, energy prices and grid-permitting bottlenecks could complicate the economics of the AI boom. A provocative early prediction for the 2028 presidential race, plus a look at the Democrats' possible contenders. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

  3. Oct 7

    Not Between Two Ferns

    On the surface, markets still look remarkably durable. Underneath, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston see a much more complicated picture. In Episode 107 of Tea & Crumpets, they start with the forces keeping interest rates elevated, including persistent inflation, heavy government borrowing, rising oil and diesel costs, and a global bond market that is showing increasing signs of strain. From there, the conversation turns to what may be hiding beneath strong index-level performance. Will and Adam dig into narrow market leadership, weakness across financials, widening high-yield spreads, and the possibility that credit markets could provide the first real warning if conditions begin to deteriorate. They also examine how higher Treasury yields are changing the relative appeal of corporate debt and putting more pressure on companies that have borrowed aggressively. AI remains a major part of the story, but the discussion shifts from the technology itself to the economics behind it. The hosts look at massive hyperscaler spending, increasingly creative financing, steep private-company valuations, data-center bottlenecks, rising electricity demand, and the difference between a transformative technology and a consistently profitable business. The market may still have momentum, but this episode is a reminder that resilience at the top of the index does not mean risk has disappeared underneath it. In this episode: Why inflation, fiscal deficits, oil prices, and global bond selling continue to matter for interest rates How geopolitical conflict is filtering through diesel, transportation costs, consumer prices, and the bond market Why record or near-record index levels can mask much weaker market breadth beneath the surface What widening credit spreads and stress in private credit could be signaling about the next phase of the market How AI spending, debt financing, leasing structures, and extreme valuations are changing the economics of the technology boom Why grid capacity, permitting, electricity costs, earnings growth, and the 2026 midterms could all influence where markets go next Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

  4. Sep 24

    Actual Tea & Crumpets

    For the first time, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston are actually sharing the same room, complete with real tea, real crumpets, and plenty to unpack. Against a backdrop of continued geopolitical uncertainty, they start with the energy markets, where disruptions to shipping, refining capacity, and global oil inventories are creating increasingly unusual dynamics between crude oil, diesel, and other refined products. From there, the conversation turns to what higher energy costs could mean beyond the pump. Will and Adam explore the potential ripple effects on inflation, wages, transportation costs, interest rates, and the bond market, while examining how government borrowing and enormous amounts of hyperscaler debt issuance are competing for capital. They also discuss why equity markets have remained remarkably resilient despite higher rates, energy prices, and persistent economic uncertainty. Finally, the discussion shifts to artificial intelligence and the enormous investment boom surrounding it. Will and Adam question how much of recent technology-sector earnings growth reflects traditional operating performance versus rising valuations of private AI investments, while also examining the capital intensity of AI, the economics of frontier models, and the massive power requirements still ahead. With only a fraction of planned data center capacity built, the AI story may increasingly become an energy, infrastructure, and capital-allocation story as much as a technology one. In this episode: Why diesel and crude oil prices have diverged so dramatically The potential inflationary impact of higher energy and transportation costs What shrinking global oil inventories could mean for markets Why bond yields remain under pressure despite efforts to contain rates How private AI investments are affecting reported technology earnings The enormous capital and power requirements behind the AI buildout Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

  5. Sep 4

    Why Don't You Just Tell Me; or, the Last Labor Day | Episode 105

    In this episode of Tea & Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston break down a market that continues to send conflicting signals. They examine rising oil and commodity prices, renewed inflation concerns, climbing bond yields, government debt, and growing intervention in markets that are becoming increasingly difficult to price. They also look at the massive influence of AI and data center spending on the economy, including rising power demand, utility infrastructure needs, and the effect of private AI investments on Big Tech earnings. With stocks still holding near record highs despite mounting pressures, Will and Adam discuss whether current earnings growth and valuations are as durable as they appear. The conversation also turns to the risks created by market concentration, increased competition across the technology sector, and the potential for government intervention to delay necessary market adjustments. Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation, and enormous capital spending, they consider where risks may be building and where investors may still find opportunities. In this episode: Rising energy prices and inflation pressure Higher bond yields and growing government debt AI, data centers, and surging power demand Big Tech earnings and AI valuation concerns Market intervention and distorted price signals Where investors may still find opportunity Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

    Why Don't You Just Tell Me; or, the Last Labor Day | Episode 105

  6. Jul 28

    Historical Accuracies

    After a summer hiatus, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston return to examine a market that appears to be reaching an important inflection point. They discuss the Federal Reserve's increasingly difficult balancing act as inflation remains stubbornly above target, government debt and interest payments continue to climb, and geopolitical tensions threaten to keep energy prices elevated. The conversation explores why these macroeconomic forces could shape the next phase of the market and what investors should be watching in the months ahead. The episode also takes a deeper dive into the technology sector, where the AI investment boom continues to dominate headlines. Will and Adam question whether massive capital expenditures, lofty valuations, and aggressive accounting assumptions can continue to support today's market leaders. They examine the growing risks facing semiconductor companies, the role China may play in compressing industry margins, and why software and other fundamentally strong businesses may be poised to benefit as investors shift their attention back to sustainable earnings and disciplined execution. Throughout the discussion, the hosts emphasize that periods when investing feels easy are often the most dangerous. As speculative enthusiasm begins to cool and market leadership broadens, they make the case that careful research, sound fundamentals, and a value-oriented approach are becoming increasingly important. It's a thoughtful conversation on separating durable opportunities from market hype while navigating an environment filled with economic uncertainty and rapidly changing market dynamics. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

    Historical Accuracies

  7. Jun 23

    Summer Kickoff

    Summer is officially underway, and Will Brown and Adam Eagleston waste no time diving into the headlines shaping markets, energy, and investor sentiment. Against the backdrop of global soccer fever, the duo examines the recently announced Iran-related memorandum of understanding and what it could mean for oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. While markets initially cheered the agreement, Will and Adam explore the deeper supply-and-demand dynamics that could keep energy prices elevated and complicate the Fed's path forward. The conversation then shifts to one of the market's hottest stories: the explosive rise of SpaceX and the broader AI-driven investment boom. Will and Adam discuss massive valuations, index inclusion decisions, leveraged ETF activity, and the growing concentration of market performance in a handful of technology and AI-related companies. Along the way, they raise important questions about capital spending, earnings quality, shareholder dilution, and whether investors are accurately assessing the risks embedded in today's most popular trades. Wrapping up the episode, Will and Adam examine the increasingly interconnected nature of AI spending, corporate earnings, and index performance. They debate whether current growth expectations are sustainable, discuss the role of passive investing in amplifying market moves, and caution investors about the potential consequences if lofty expectations begin to crack. From oil markets and AI speculation to Fed policy and investor behavior, Will and Adam break it all down with their signature blend of insight, skepticism, and humor. Topics Discussed: The Iran memorandum of understanding and its impact on oil markets Inflation, retail sales, and the Fed's policy challenges SpaceX's soaring valuation and market influence AI spending, capital expenditures, and earnings growth Index concentration and passive investing risks Equity issuance, shareholder dilution, and market speculation The outlook for technology stocks and broader market leadership Potential risks lurking beneath record market highs Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

    Summer Kickoff

  8. Jun 4

    Epic Furry

    In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a market that appears remarkably calm on the surface while a growing list of geopolitical and economic risks continues to build beneath it. From escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over global energy supply to record stock market levels and speculative enthusiasm surrounding AI and upcoming IPOs, our host explore the growing disconnect between market optimism and economic reality. Will and Adam discuss the potential consequences of prolonged disruptions to global oil markets, including the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, declining energy inventories, and the possibility of a significant spike in oil prices. They examine how higher energy costs could ripple through the broader economy, impacting consumers, inflation, corporate earnings, and ultimately market valuations. The conversation then shifts to the stock market's continued climb to all-time highs, fueled largely by AI-related investments and a handful of mega-cap technology companies. While acknowledging strong earnings growth among select firms, the Will and Adam question whether current valuations accurately reflect long-term realities, highlighting concerns around accounting treatment, capital expenditures, speculative behavior, and the growing influence of retail investors. They also explore the changing structure of markets, the rise of passive investing, and the implications of major upcoming IPOs—including the highly anticipated SpaceX offering. They debate whether today's environment more closely resembles previous periods of technological innovation or the late stages of historical market bubbles. Whether you're following global events, navigating today's markets, or simply trying to make sense of the headlines, this episode offers a thoughtful examination of the forces shaping the investment landscape—and the potential consequences if current trends continue. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

    Epic Furry
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About

Tea and Crumpets is Formidable Asset Management's biweekly podcast that features Formidable's Managing Partner and CEO, Will Brown, and Chief Investment Officer, Adam Eagleston, CFA, talking directly about current events in relation to their expertise and business in a conversational manner.

Information

  • Creator
    Will Brown and Adam Eagleston
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    109
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2024
  • Show Website
    Tea and Crumpets