Real Perspectives Podcast

The Registry/Mighty Dot Media

Exploring commercial real estate topics across the West Coast of the US, and sometimes the world!

  1. 4d ago

    The Bottom of the Pyramid: Small Tenants, Big Demand

    Host Vladimir Bosanac is joined by co-host David Arscott (CEO & Co-Founder, Baycrest Capital) for a read on the multifamily and industrial markets — then sits down with David Klein (EVP & Managing Principal, Lee & Associates SF) on the most underserved corner of life science real estate. In this episode: Multifamily is bouncing off the bottom — national vacancy near 4.3%, Bay Area rents up ~9% YoY, and Green Street projecting ~8% CAGR rent growth in Northern California over three years.Industrial is a step behind in the cycle — construction costs outpacing rent growth, small-bay and last-mile flex space holding demand while big-box supply gets absorbed.Rent control's double edge — lessons from New York's five boroughs, plus Redwood City's November ballot measure and California's Builders Remedy push.The energy question — Texas chasing a staggering 474 GW of grid demand (vs. 12.7 GW for all of PG&E territory), why the real number may be 10–20x smaller, and Google's not-quite-sci-fi pitch for data centers in space.Life science's forgotten 40% — David Klein on the "demand pyramid," why sub-10,000 SF lab space runs 0.1–2.2% vacancy while the broader market sits near 29%, and how Lab Space Directory advocates for the small tenants nobody represents.Guests: David Arscott — CEO & Co-Founder, Baycrest Capital (LinkedIn)David Klein — EVP & Managing Principal, Lee & Associates San Francisco (LinkedIn)

  2. Aug 31

    The AI Rent Boom — Why Bay Area Multifamily Is the Hottest Market in the Country

    The Bay Area multifamily market keeps getting "wilder and wilder." In this episode, host Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) sits down with Dave Saxe, Managing Principal at Calvera Partners, to unpack why San Francisco has become arguably the strongest multifamily market in the country — with 25–30% lease trade-outs, vacancy at a 20-year low, and the AI boom pulling equity back to a region investors were fleeing just a few years ago. From there the conversation widens out: which markets are next in line (Seattle, Austin, and a sleeper pick in Orange County), what's really happening with interest rates and inflation heading into 2027, and where distress and deal flow might finally open up. The pair close with two "Microscope / Telescope" segments — the newly passed 21st Century Road to Housing Act and California's decision to sue five cities over housing — plus the eye-opening economic numbers rolling in from World Cup host cities. Chapters / timestamps * (00:00) Welcome and episode roadmap * (02:10) SF multifamily: 25–30% lease trade-outs, 8–10%+ market rent growth, 20-year-low vacancy * (04:21) Rent-to-income ratio and how much runway is left (Green Street's ~8% 3-year CAGR) * (06:45) The ripple effect — Oakland, the Peninsula, Silicon Valley, and market cyclicality * (08:50) Investor appetite: capital flips back to the Bay Area, but deals are slim pickings * (10:44) Supply crunch — inclusionary housing cuts, impact fees, union costs, ~5.25% return on cost * (13:08) Lending: open for existing product, tighter for new construction * (15:09) Other markets — Austin: supply glut, has it found a bottom? * (16:24) Seattle / Puget Sound: AI hiring, life science, cheaper housing, politics * (20:45) Orange County: the defense-AI sleeper pick * (23:03) Interest rates & inflation — core CPI ~3.2%, 6.5%+ mortgages, the "new normal" * (26:08) The refinance wall and where distress could open up deal flow * (27:48) REITs, cost of capital, and the Essex/EQR "we love the Bay Area" story * (31:52) Microscope/Telescope: the 21st Century Road to Housing Act (passed 85–5) * (33:56) California sues five cities over housing — Half Moon Bay, Huntington Beach * (37:03) World Cup economics — San Jose watch parties, NY/NJ's $2.1B impact, Seattle merchants

  3. Aug 20

    The Great Handoff: AI, Aging Owners, and Where Work Goes Next

    Vlad and Laura sit down to trace a single thread running through three of the biggest shifts in how — and where — we work. They open with China's startling leap into an AI-and-gig-powered labor force (44% of workers now in the gig economy) and what a number like that would mean for a U.S. system built around employer-provided healthcare, pensions, and the 9-to-5. From there, they turn to "the great handoff": the trillions of dollars in small-business ownership changing hands as baby boomers retire, why so many viable companies may simply close for lack of a succession plan, and the overlooked opportunity for young people to buy a business rather than build one from scratch. Finally, they map Gen Z's move toward tier-two and tier-three towns in search of a slower, more affordable life — and what that migration means for Waymos and driver's licenses, for population trends, and for the fight over where data centers get built. It's a wide-ranging, optimistic conversation about disruption, adaptation, and the chance to do things better. Key Takeaways China already has ~44% of its labor force in the gig economy, offering a preview of an AI-shaped workforce the U.S. safety net isn't structured for.Automation is reshaping jobs more than simply eliminating them — but the U.S. reliance on employers for healthcare and retirement makes the transition higher-stakes here.~45% of privately held Bay Area businesses are owned by baby boomers; without succession plans, many profitable, viable companies risk closing rather than transferring.Buying an established small business can be lower-risk than founding one — over 70–80% of startups fail within a few years, while acquisition comes with an existing customer base and financing tools like SBA loans.Gen Z is increasingly prioritizing rest, health, and affordability, fueling migration to tier-two and tier-three "Zoom towns" and revitalizing smaller communities.Fewer teens are getting driver's licenses, and developers are already designing for a lower-car future (e.g., convertible parking garages).The data-center backlash is bipartisan; the path forward may be requiring facilities to generate their own clean power and recycle water so they become a community asset, not a burden.HostsVladimir Bosanac — Co-host; publisher and co-founder of The Registry. Laura Kreuger — Co-host; third-generation real estate investor and founder of Asset Locale, focused on property-management operations and technology.

  4. Aug 13

    From Silicon Valley to El Segundo: Defense Tech, Data Centers, and the Grid That Powers It All

    Hosts: Vladimir Bosanac, Co-Founder & Publisher of The Registry, and Tom Fischer, Principal and Director of Capital Markets at JB Matteson In this episode, Vlad and Tom trace how the West Coast's commercial real estate map is being redrawn — from a defense-tech boom reshaping Southern California, to the mounting political fight over AI data centers, to an industrial sector cooling off its pandemic-era peak, and the interest-rate and geopolitical crosscurrents pressuring multifamily. They close with a lighthearted look at one surprisingly recession-proof, AI-proof career. What they get into: Southern California's defense-tech surge and why the "script has flipped" from Silicon Valley — funding still flows from the north, but the hardware expertise, machine shops, skilled manufacturing labor, and legacy footprint (Northrop, Raytheon, Boeing, SpaceX, Anduril) are concentrated in the south. El Segundo, once a Standard Oil refinery town, now reportedly boasts the second-highest density of PhDs in California. Emerging occupiers like Flight Wave Aerospace, True Anomaly, Trino Manufacturing, Heart Aerospace, and Millennium Space Systems are taking 30,000–90,000 SF and poised to grow, with lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East driving demand for cheaper, AI-enabled, autonomous systems. The growing backlash against AI data centers, including New York Governor Hochul's one-year moratorium on hyperscaler builds, pauses in Seattle and Monterey Park, and local opposition in California. Tom and Vlad debate the "build vs. pause" framing, the geopolitical stakes of ceding the AI race to China, and practical middle-ground solutions — closed-loop water systems, bringing your own power, micro-nuclear, solar, and waste-heat reuse (à la Microsoft's Finland projects) — plus the regulatory bottlenecks (eight-year utility hookups, Three Mile Island's restart) standing in the way. The industrial market's reset: despite bearish headlines, national vacancy sits around 7% with positive net absorption (~62M SF in Q2, ~113–114M SF YTD per Cushman & Wakefield). The Inland Empire — the country's largest industrial market — has climbed to 8.8% vacancy with values off roughly 40% from their 2022 peak, while LA (4.2%) and Chicago (4.8%) hold firm. Construction has fallen ~30% off the ~1B SF boom peak to about 305M SF underway, as tariffs, oversupply, and higher cap rates push tenants toward renewals over expansion. The macroeconomic overlay: the unraveling Middle East MOU, oil and inflation risk, and a 10-year Treasury up ~15–20 bps across the curve — and what it means for multifamily transaction volume, rent growth (SF ~4.5% YoY per Yardi, San Jose ~1%, Sacramento ~0.5%), and JB Matteson's fundamentals-driven acquisition approach in a market where capital is on the sidelines. And to close, the microscope/telescope segment: why elevator mechanics in San Francisco pull $130K+ salaries with ironclad job security, aging century-old building stock, and a wry conversation about which jobs survive the rise of "physical AI" and robotics. Notable moment: "A decision deferred is a decision made — is not a good rule to live by." — on data center moratoriums. Chapters: (00:00) Intro — anchoring the Bay Area from San Jose and San Francisco(01:00) Defense tech's move to Southern California(13:10) Data centers, AI, and the moratorium debate(24:36) The industrial market reset(35:08) Macro drivers: interest rates, the Middle East, and multifamily(42:40) Microscope/Telescope: elevator mechanics and the AI-proof job

  5. Aug 6

    Redco's Chris Freise: AI Leasing, the Power Crunch, and a 1935 Bar as an SF Recovery Story

    On this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, Chris Freise gives a rare up-and-down-the-coast view of commercial real estate as someone who invests, operates, and develops across all three major West Coast metros. The conversation digs into Redco's contrarian office thesis — buying San Francisco office with debt when nearly everyone else was forced to pay all cash — and how the AI leasing recovery arrived faster than Chris expected. He talks through the 400,000-square-foot Wells Fargo building on California Street, why 28,000-square-foot floor plates are a decisive advantage, and how the market has shifted from small tenants to a hunt for 100,000-to-400,000-square-foot users. On culture, Chris argues the amenities war still comes down to food and hospitality more than saunas and cold plunges, using Redco's 28 Utah project as an example. The group then works through the regional picture: San Francisco's surprising retail rebound (Antitown Coffee coming to 300 California), Seattle trailing the cycle by 12 to 24 months with Anthropic's lease as a first real AI flag, and Southern California's distress in land and office alongside the hard-to-crack Inland Empire industrial market. A central thread is power as the new currency — how tenants over-ask for amperage they often don't use, PG&E's surcharge risk, the Hayward building Redco delivered with New York Life, and the strange case of a 12-megawatt substation for sale on just 20,000 square feet. On capital, Chris explains why institutional money is piling into the two "food groups" — industrial (increasingly advanced manufacturing) and multifamily — compressing cap rates, pushing land prices up 20 to 25 percent, and reshaping the math on ground-up development. Rob and Chris also trade notes on design and placemaking, from the Hayward R&D building to why Seattle's design-review culture produces better architecture. The episode closes on Harrington's Bar and Grill at 245 Front Street — a 1935 immigrant-founded pub Redco saved from becoming something else, now posting record sales as a living symbol of San Francisco's downtown recovery. Timestamps(00:00) Intro and welcome(00:53) The Redco story: two brothers, three metros, and the "Robert Edward Daniels" name(04:26) The office thesis — buying with debt when everyone else paid cash(05:02) The AI recovery and the 400K-sf Wells Fargo building(07:16) How deep is demand for 200K–400K-sf blocks?(10:22) Building culture in AI offices: why food still wins(12:29) Downtown and retail recovery; Antitown Coffee at 300 California(14:19) Seattle and SoCal: why local politics drives the investment climate(17:10) The housing-supply debate and Seattle's overbuild(19:54) What needs to change to unlock Bay Area housing starts(20:39) Palo Alto's fish-market site and a 400-unit outlier(22:53) Southern California: distressed office, land, and the Inland Empire(28:40) Power as a make-or-break issue for tenants(32:22) PG&E, surcharges, and power as benefit and risk(36:04) Where the money wants to go: industrial and multifamily(40:20) Sunnyvale, UPS, and land prices climbing 20–25%(46:00) Design, placemaking, and the Hayward R&D building(52:59) Harrington's Bar and Grill: a 1935 pub as a recovery barometer(58:29) Closing thoughts

  6. Jul 30

    Construction Slows, Data Centers Surge: Reading the 2026 CRE Cycle

    Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder and publisher of The Registry, welcomes back David Arscott of Baycrest Capital for another wide-ranging look at the forces shaping commercial real estate. They open on a striking headline: second-quarter construction deliveries have fallen to their lowest level since 2011 — fifteen years ago — as rising costs, softening valuations, and oversupply in hot markets like Austin, Denver, and Miami finally catch up with development pipelines. Yet on the ground in the Bay Area, contractors still can't hire fast enough, a paradox David and Vlad trace to the one corner of construction that's booming: data centers. From there the conversation turns to the surge of new capital flooding into data centers, where vacancy sits near zero and investment has overtaken office. But the boom is drawing pushback — Monterey Park has banned new data centers outright and Seattle has imposed a 12-month moratorium — pushing development toward friendlier markets and raising hard questions about energy. Vlad and David dig into the grid constraints, the politics of green versus fossil energy, and why nuclear (and micro-nuclear) may finally get its moment. The pair then examine the emerging value play in beaten-down urban cores, using the takeback of 415 Natoma — San Francisco's newest office tower, recently trading around $300 a foot versus the $900-plus of the last cycle — as a case study in how a lower basis resets what a building can lease for. With Northmarq's Jeff Whitehell recently estimating the market is only about halfway through its distressed-asset cycle, they see more value-add and distress ahead over the next 12–18 months. Finally, they weigh Goldman Sachs' 15% recession odds against a hawkish Fed, stubborn inflation, and the elephant in the room: AI valuations. Drawing parallels to the dot-com bust, they debate whether an AI correction would stay contained among private companies or ripple through pension funds and the broader economy — while agreeing the underlying technology, like the internet before it, isn't going anywhere. In the closing "Microscope / Telescope" segment, they zoom in on how looming AI IPOs are already pushing luxury home prices higher (with all-cash Bay Area deals now topping $1,700 a foot), the wildcard of a first-ever recorded U.S. population decline, and a Phoenix industrial market that swung from 4% to 12% vacancy in two years — where a fresh $122 million JLL bridge loan signals renewed confidence and the growing mainstreaming of bridge lending. Topics & timestamps(00:01) Intro — Welcome and catching up(01:10) Construction deliveries hit lowest level since 2011 — Rising costs, softening valuations, and the lag between planning and delivery(04:31) The labor paradox — Why Bay Area contractors still can't hire despite a national slowdown(06:42) New capital floods into data centers — Investment overtaking office; near-zero vacancy(08:26) The pushback — Monterey Park's ban, Seattle's moratorium, and where development migrates next(12:04) The energy question — Grid limits, renewables, and the case for nuclear(16:19) The urban-core value play — 415 Natoma, lower basis, and the distress cycle (with a nod to Northmarq's Jeff Whitehell)(23:07) Employment stays resilient — Low unemployment amid economic crosswinds(24:00) Recession odds & the AI valuation risk — Goldman's 15%, a hawkish Fed, and dot-com parallels(32:06) Microscope / Telescope: AI IPOs & housing — Luxury home prices, all-cash deals, and a shrinking population(38:07) Phoenix industrial boom-bust — 4% to 12% vacancy, a $122M bridge loan, and bridge lending going mainstream

  7. Jul 23

    The AI Wealth Wave: What OpenAI and Anthropic's IPOs Mean for Bay Area Real Estate

    In this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, co-host Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) sits down with David Saxe (co-founder and managing principal of Calvera Partners) to unpack how the coming wave of AI IPOs is reshaping the Bay Area's commercial real estate landscape — and why this boom looks fundamentally different from the ones before it. Drawing on David's early career at Sam Zell's Equity Office, the two trace the lessons of the dot-com collapse against today's revenue-backed AI giants, then follow the ripple effects outward: from San Francisco's surging rents to Oakland's uneasy recovery, the Sunbelt's oversupply reckoning, and the Midwest's turn in the "musical chairs" of multifamily investing. They close with a look at interest rates, the condo-killing Right to Repair Act, and the rise of bridge lending as a mainstream financing tool. What we get into: Why the AI IPO wave concentrates wealth in hundreds of people rather than thousands — and what that means for housing demandLessons from the dot-com bust: Sand Hill Road rents "falling off a cliff" and why revenue changes the story this timeSan Francisco rents up 9–11%, CoStar projecting another 6–7%, and lease trade-outs hitting 25%The Oakland question: does the boom always spread east, and does governance slow it down?Housing element mandates, El Camino Real, and whether California can build its way outThe affordable-vs-luxury housing debate — and why "just build units" keeps coming upAustin and Dallas as cautionary tales: record supply, rents down 20%, and investors drifting to the MidwestSeattle, Southern California, the Inland Empire, and Builders RemedyHow leadership and politics (Lurie in SF, new mayors in Seattle and NYC) factor into developmentInterest rates: three big banks now projecting two hikes next year, and the end of "wait for rates to drop"Microscope/Telescope — David on SB 800's Right to Repair Act and the chilling effect on condo development; Vladimir on the $900B maturity wall driving bridge lending mainstreamChapters: (00:10) Welcome and intros(01:43) The impending AI IPOs and a new concentration of wealth(02:50) Why this isn't the dot-com boom — revenue vs. hype(04:37) Lessons from Sam Zell, Equity Office, and Sand Hill Road(08:06) SF rent surge and the spread across the Bay(11:24) CoStar projections, lease trade-outs, and the Oakland debate(15:19) Development, the housing element, and a 300-unit surprise in Sausalito(19:49) Affordable vs. luxury: the "just build units" case(21:06) Austin, Dallas, and the Sunbelt oversupply story(23:59) Seattle and Southern California supply dynamics(26:46) Leadership, politics, and how much a mayor really moves the needle(32:22) Interest rates, inflation, and the end of "lend and extend" optimism(36:34) Value-add opportunities in the outer rings(38:15) Job market resilience and a nation of longer-term renters(41:53) Microscope/Telescope: the Right to Repair Act and bridge lendingThe Real Perspectives Podcast is produced by The Registry. Subscribe for candid conversations on the forces shaping commercial real estate.

  8. Jul 17

    Location, Location, Belonging: The Hospitality Turn in Real Estate

    On this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, co-host and Registry co-founder/publisher Vladimir Bosanac sits down with Laura Kreuger, Founder & Executive Director of Asset Locale Property Management, for a wide-ranging conversation on where residential and commercial real estate are headed. A third-generation Silicon Valley real estate investor, Laura shares how she grew up showing properties alongside her parents, launched Asset Locale two years ago, and now manages both short- and long-term rentals across the South Bay — all while keeping her mother's rule that you should never own or manage a property you wouldn't live in yourself. From the rise of "Instagram-worthy" spaces to balcony solar panels and the persistent puzzle of empty ground-floor retail, Vladimir and Laura dig into the forces reshaping how people live, shop, work, and connect in a post-COVID world. In this episode: The hospitality-fication of real estate — Why residents now compare their apartment building to Airbnb, the Four Seasons, Apple, and Equinox, and how operators are competing on experience, connection, and a sense of belonging rather than location alone.Designing with purpose — How generational shifts (millennials and younger renters prioritizing well-being and mental health) are pushing developers toward spaces that feel good, not just look good, across multifamily, office, retail, and even life science.FIFA comes to the West Coast — What the World Cup means for Bay Area cities, the Airbnb hosting boom, San Jose Airport's AI concierge, and how smaller cities (think Nashville and Austin) can use big events as a catalyst for lasting tourism and identity.Retail as experience — Warby Parker, IKEA, and the return of touch-and-feel storefronts, plus why getting customers through the door still drives bigger baskets.The ground-floor retail dilemma — Why city-mandated retail so often sits vacant, the case for smaller flex spaces and niche operators (yes, including Puppy Yoga), the power of habit formation during initial lease-up, and how public-private partnerships and live-work models could finally activate these spaces.Microscope / Telescope — Two closing spotlights: plug-in "balcony solar" (over a million installs in Germany, now moving through legislation in 30+ U.S. states) and the CREW Network 2025 Benchmark Study, where Laura — this year's CREW Silicon Valley President — unpacks a narrowing pay gap (down to ~4%), stubborn representation numbers (women still ~38% of the industry, just 9% in the C-suite), and the urgent need for mentorship and awareness of the many career paths within commercial real estate.About the guest: Laura Kreuger is the Founder & Executive Director of Asset Locale Property Management in Campbell, CA, and the 2025 President of CREW Silicon Valley, an organization supporting women in commercial real estate. Web: www.assetlocale.com · Email: laura@assetlocale.com · Phone: 408.410.5242 · DRE #01890091 Hosted by: Vladimir Bosanac, Co-Founder & Publisher of The Registry

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4.8
out of 5
17 Ratings

About

Exploring commercial real estate topics across the West Coast of the US, and sometimes the world!

Information

  • Creator
    The Registry/Mighty Dot Media
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    218
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Registry/Mighty Dot Media
  • Show Website
    Real Perspectives Podcast

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