Breakaway - Investing & Finance

Sean Hathaway

Breakaway from the haters and mainstream thought. Learn about Investing, Finance and the Economy in a plain english and entertaining way. Understand the business environment and make money investing. Uncertainty in the markets driven by crisis, anarchy, politics and craziness is simply opportunity. Facts and truth here. 

  1. Sep 19

    AI, Jensen & Nvidia, TSLA, SPCX, Markets

    AI Doomerism? Or should the companies just have better quality control prior to releasing a model?   Fed increased interest rates by 0.25 basis. Does this help.  Play. Ed Sheeran is a Genius!  PLAY!! Jeff Bezos on AI creating a Labor SHORTAGE.  Endless set of things to invent! Anthropic has shifted IPO: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-shifts-planned-ipo-to-november-8874dffc?mod=hp_lead_pos10 Play!! This is why Jensen in a Genius!  ‘ Jenson on All In. Wow! Play Jensen about helping and not being competitive. No political discourse in the company. Period Amen. Doesn’t matter who’s in power. Gwen and Elon too. Good summary of Elon’s talking points. I like the review procedure.3 Guys hacked OpenAi Gemini broke out and Hacked.  All-In Pods:Play Jensen with on AI safety.  Elon and Gwen shotwell.  Not grading your own homework. SpaceX Starship 14 launch will deliver 26 V3 Starlinks. So here's a crazy stat: Starship's upcoming 14th test flight next week, which will deliver 26 @Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, will increase the entire Starlink constellation capacity by 3%. It would take 10 Falcon 9 launches (277 V2 satellites) to add that same amount of capacity. Future Starship launches will eventually carry up to 60 next-gen Starlink V3 satellites, adding ~61,000 Gbps of network capacity in a single launch. That means each Starship launch will be able to deploy roughly as much Starlink capacity as 23 Falcon 9 launches combined - equivalent to about 640 V2 satellites. Play CFO from TMobile Hubris. Apple Airtags analogy TeslaTesla Roadster Tesla Semi The AI RegulationGood summary here by Gavin

  2. Sep 11

    AI, Tesla, SpaceX, Nvidia, Markets

    Apple Iphone Duo Available October Starting at $2000Meta Unveils personal AI agent: MuseNvidia Nvidia to buy Hugging Space for $13B.  Per WSJ.  Jensen Blog post.  More than 18 million developers, researchers and creators use Hugging Face to share more than 3 million models, 500,000 datasets and 1 million applications. More than 200,000 companies use the platform to discover, evaluate, customize and deploy AI. Hugging Face will remain an open platform for the entire AI ecosystem. Developers will choose the models they want, the frameworks they want, the clouds and inference service providers they want and the computing platforms they want. NVIDIA compute will not be required to build on or deploy through Hugging Face. Nike Nike removed from S&P 100 Lot’s saying “go woke, go broke”.  Revenue down from 2024: $51B vs 46b. Net Income down $5B vs 3.1bI highly recommend Shoe Dog! AI Whistleblower from Anthropic on X breaking every record possible.  The Jacob Coxon Post? Planned?  Phyop? Theory is Anthropic wants regulatory capture so they can govern.TeslaCyberCab launch is looking legit. Appears to be 100’s of cars in Austin. 420 registered at Texas DMV. hahah 420 Rooting for Waymo, Zoox and others to be successful.  PLAY Elon just stole my idea. Uber/Lyft drivers buy Cybercabs.  Engineering Unboxed assembly. The car is built as parallel modules (front casting, rear, pack/seats, outer skins) and joined late. Tesla says the line footprint is about half a conventional line. Deleting hydraulics and paint is what makes that join possible.Uno Color-in-mold RIM body skins. Outer panels (doors, hood skin, roof, quarters, bumpers) are polyurethane made by reaction injection molding with the gold mixed into the part. No paint shop. Cycle time minutes instead of hours. That is a factory change, not a styling choice.Dry brake-by-wire. First Tesla with zero brake fluid, zero brake lines, no master cylinder. Each caliper has its own electric actuator. Pads can pull fully off the rotor (less drag). No fluid to flush on a 24/7 taxi. One of the first production cars in the world to do this dry; Chery in China got there a few months earlier.Steer-by-wire with no column. Cybertruck already had steer-by-wire and a wheel. Cybercab deletes the wheel. The rack sits behind the front drive unit and only takes electronic commands from the autonomy stack.Supermanifold V3 thermal system. Tesla’s claim matches what you read: they cut extra refrigerant valves and lines, merged high- and low-voltage controllers into one box, say production is ~80% automated and the system is ~38% more efficient than other automotive thermal setups. That is the heat-pump / battery / cabin plumbing, not a marketing slogan about “climate control.”Smaller, lighter, rare-earth-free drive unit. Single front motor, 163 kW / 219 hp. Tesla: 18% smaller, 25% lighter than top competing EV units, designed for sub-10-second automated assembly. Ferrite / Halbach instead of neodymium. First Tesla that is front-wheel-drive only.No human controls as a packaging rule. No wheel, pedals, mirrors, or rear window. That is not just UX. It lets them drop hydraulic plumbing, a steering column, mirror drag, and a lot of crash structure around a driver. Cd claimed under 0.2.48-volt low-voltage architecture. Same idea as Cybertruck: thinner wiring, fewer fuses, easier automation. Most of the industry is still on 12V.Small 4680 pack, high miles per kWh. ~48 kWh, ~3,100 lb car, EPA-adjusted range near 300 miles. The engineering bet is efficiency and utilization (two seats, ~80% of trips) instead of a giant battery.Fleet-life design, not owner-car design. 500,000-mile target, camera washers, inductive charging as the intended depot method (NACS still there for now), automatic butterfly doors, cabin camera for leftover bags. That is ops engineering: fewer service visits, no paint matching, no brake-fluid intervals.In addition to:  No steering wheel, pedals, mirrors…. READ Electronic actuators instead of hydraulic liquid brakes…this seems so obvious!!  The Tesla Cybercab doesn't have ANY brake fluid. It is the first production vehicle to have a brake-by-wire system.  Electronic actuators are responsible for the clamping pressure, rather than hydraulic fluid that you see in traditional vehicles. This system improves efficiency since the brake pads can fully disengage. They can go entirely off or on. It also enables Tesla to fine-tune the braking to be as smooth as possible. PLUS, when the car is built with the unboxed process, Tesla doesn't need to run any brake lines, everything is seamless. READ Painting: All panels are RIM Reaction Injection Molding. NO PAINT!  Elons says TRUE!  EntrepreneurshipDemand will be off the charts. Space XGrok is way better!  SpaceX price targets.  Today from Brett CFO SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen has announced that the company has signed another AI compute deal that will generate $1.11 billion of revenue per month ($13.3 billion per year), starting on Dec 1, 2026."Earlier this month, we closed another hosting deal. By the end of this year, with annualizing our December number, we're on track to hit $100 billion of ARR."Launching first AI Compute satellites in 2027. Previously, have reported that Starlink V3 satellites are much more complex.Elon x-post and article. AI and Robots will solve the debt problem. You better all hope Elon gets us out of this mess. Play Gavin Baker talking about Phd’s saying cooling in space is impossible.   Gavin Baker again on a great post of DataCenter Reality.  Read: Engines compared.  Webcast here.  SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen has announced that the company has signed another AI compute deal that will generate $1.11 billion of revenue per month ($13.3 billion per year), starting on Dec 1, 2026. DataCenter Hosting: Earlier this month, we closed another hosting deal. By the end of this year, with annualizing our December number, we're on track to hit $100 billion of ARR.Orbital Compute: Clean, unlimited energy, no “community” issues. First Orbital compute satellites launching in 2027Play  Tobi Lutke on the Picasso of our time: the SpaceX Raptor Engine.  Moving forward by subtraction. Elon security detail has been “marshalled”. Boring CompanyBoring in Nashville. Per Total Recall, we’ll need tunnels on Mars. So maybe an acquisition? California The state of California. By Chamath.  Schools have a constitutional funding guarantee, bondholders sit ahead of most other claims, and Medi-Cal and pension contributions come with legal and financial constraints. Together, those four categories account for roughly $150 billion of the $226.7 billion the General Fund expects to collect. Recommendations Travis Kalanick on David SenraBill Ackman called all 400 people on Forbes 400 list. 96% rejection.

  3. Aug 31

    NVIDIA, SalesForce, SpaceX, Tesla, Markets

    "Your entire life will change when you realize energy is the most attractive human trait. Not looks, wealth, or status. Energy. Start walking into rooms with genuine enthusiasm, curiosity, and interest. Watch what happens. You become a magnet for the highest quality people. Energy is contagious. Spread the kind you’d want to catch." RIP Dolly Parton Music Intro! Clint Eastwood retires at 96.  Good Bad and Ugly.  Markets and RetirementGood luck planning if on your own. VERY difficult100’s hours building a retirement forecast model. Changing small things like inflation or investment returns by 1% has huge ramifications. Meaning its an ongoing challenge. Markets UpSaaS AcololypseSalesforce Earnings letter Webcast. Up 22% Thursday. Low $150 now $250.~70% up. Claude ForceClaude/Anthropic uses Salesforce and Slack. They are not replacing them. Sales force combining with Claude.NVIDIAPress Release Jensen reminds me of Elon in that he disregards and has NO worry about competition because he is so confident in his team, mission and trajectory. $5T companyUp 4% after hours. $210. 1 year up 17%. 5 yr 850%Americas great opportunity 1000000’s of jobs  First time in century that we can fix energy grid.  This is the new industrial revolution.  Autonomous DrivingIts happening!  Amazon Amazon Zoox - No steering wheel or pedals - taking the roads in Las Vegas!  This is GOOD! Toaster-shaped taxis that don’t have a driver or a steering wheel have started rolling across San Francisco and charging for rides in Las Vegas.The all-electric cars are the first robotaxis offering rides on the roads without standard driver features like a dashboard and pedals. They can drive in either direction and hold up to four passengers who sit facing each other. Windows stretch across much of the sides. The vehicles are called Zoox.Tesla HUGE from a media standpoint, article from WSJ on Tesla and FSD. Tesla Robots JC talking about seeing the robots. Play entire clip. From the latest All In Pod. Thinks it will be best selling product of all time. Better than any video you’ve seen! Hardware 1.5 generations ahead, and mind 5x more. Optimus will be the greatest product ever made. Says in 10 years will be 1b in 2036 From Ashok. Flooding the streets of Austin.  Wouldn’t say this in public without high confidence.  From Elon: Both SpaceX and Tesla building 100gw/yr solar and supplementing with Nat Gas, and to increase rate of production will manufacture the blades and vanes at SpaceX!  Will probably take 2-3 years. 100gw/yr is enough to power ~18,000,000 US homes. YES 18m. So together should be 36m homes. SpaceX $3.5T by 2033 per Elon. At modest 10x sales that is 35 trillion.  AI DataCenters are Coming. Only question when?  Partnering with NVIDIA on new chips/tech for space.Per Elon “Our design is significantly simpler, lower cost, denser and lighter than a traditional rack” You believe him?Play. Video of Elon and team discussing datacenters in Space.   Do people know (1) this was Elon’s car and (2) first falcon heavy launch (3) expected to fail and (4) if it didn’t fail, wanted to have fun! And (5) orbiting between Earth and Mars. Expects at least 10m years life.  JP Morgan on SpaceX Catalysts:  SpaceX just bought APR energy.  Per Elon aiming for 30 Starship launches per day. By 2030 1 million people on Mars, plus tranches to 7.5t in Market cap. 30/day is 10800 or ~10k annual. StarBase Louisiana Official SpaceX video.3000 direct jobs, 10,000 jobs to Luisiana8 launch towers.Crazy states/politicans are not inviting them to build in their state.  Open letter from Elon to staff. Eliminat bureaucracy.  Math to get to 1m people on Mars. Public Policy California Tires

  4. Aug 7

    SpaceX, Tesla, AI, Netflix, Margin, Markets

    OpenPunta de Mita Mexico. Pure heaven. AC/DCWorldCup Play at 0.15.  Videos of foreigners talking about America. Awesome.Play Feynman at 10.29 minMarkets SCHD and VOO ATH.  VGT And QQQ off ~5%.  1 year 30% SCHD, 32% VGT and 24% VOO. Leopold LeverageThe fund had gained about 270% after fees this year through May. At that point, it was up more than 1,000% after fees since inception. It had ballooned to well over $20 billion under management, reaching the size of other well-known hedge funds that took decades to build.Example: you have $1000.  Borrow $1000. Buy $2000 of stocks. Stocks go down 50%. Your broke.NetflixEarnings letter. TeslaBiggest one day loss EVER. Down 14.5%.  One concept keeps me calm: The US needs Tesla and its Robotics for national security. Revenue Growth So many changes in last 2 years. Revenue should grow steadily now:  Model YL (sleeper hit), Energy, Semi, Robotaxi (finally!), Optimus (~9 months), Services (up 50% YoY). CyberTruck basic config (delivery in 2027...huge demand! Earnings Deck here.  $100b annual run-rate.$28b revenue quarter. Record. 1.48m FSD subscriptions. TeraFAbThis is why we're building the largest chip manufacturing facility ever, with the goal of producing over 1 terawatt of compute per year AILetter from companies/CEO’s urging allowing Open Weights AI models.  SpaceXThis tweet if off the charts”  ‘https://x.com/stevederico/status/2084779469647266042 Play Elon $100 billion ARR by December 2026 (they get here doing "nothing")$1 trillion in revenue as early as 2029Starship heat shield "solved"1 year payback on AI Data Center CapEXEnd of 2027 data center capacity will upwards of 5x (or more)NVIDIA exclusive chip partner for data centers on ground and spaceThey are using learnings from building rockets to build data centers, and it turns out data centers are way way way easier than rockets (means they can go extremely fast)Starlink commercial will be much bigger than consumer and Starlink should deliver most of the world's internetAI will be able to do almost anything in digital world by end of 2027V3 satellites will 10x the bandwidth and will be launched 10x as many as V2.Connectivity demand will explode due to physical AI (self driving cars/humanoid robots)PoliticsFlorida’s budgetNewsom Pay to Play from WSJDave Friedberg on CA Tax. Billionaire Tax Hoover Institute Video Podcasts Really enjoyed Tim Robins on spotify. Advice:  Never give up. Just show up. Everyone gets a job. Be AI literate.I don’t think its hard to be successful in America. Hard = show up everyday, care about your job and your duty. That’st it. Great Coscto example here

  5. Jun 25

    SpaceX, Tesla, World Cup, Markets, Game Stop/Ebay, California

    Happy Father’s day Weekend.  US Mens world cup:  2-0 over Australia today. 4-1 over ParaguayPlaying Bosnia July 1 in SF in round of 32. Messi is Awesome! Interview with Dara at Uber.  Play at 1:07. Talking about working with Barry Dillar Talking about Reed at 1:08Tide Citizen Vigilante.  Director/writer here? Streisand effect. Citizen Vigilante is a Uwe Boll film starring Armie Hammer, released June 19, about a wealthy American in Zagreb who becomes a feared underground vigilante targeting criminals and corrupt judges, gains a social media following, and ends up hunted by Interpol. Already a combustible combination.Air conditioning in US. Markets Draw down Mostly fears that Fed won’t lower rates, and may in fact raise!? Off all time high.  Tesla Elon Trillionaire: US took in $5.2 trillion of tax revenue in 2025. So let's take in an extra $1 trillion or ~20% by liquidating Elon and his companies.... IMAGINE: With $6.2 trillion we will fundamentally change every American's life!!! Everything free! Fake News on Tesla crash.  SpaceX Play Working at SpaceX not a science experiment.  AI Data Center Revenue:  $2,320,000,000 per month. Mostly cashflow. Reflection AI to spend $150m per month developing open source AI model. Backed by Nvidia, Reflection is establishing itself as an alternative to the growing number of sophisticated Chinese open-source artificial-intelligence models. Open-source AI models are free to download and modify, as opposed to closed-source models.Another Rental of Compute from Google to SpaceX.  . $920m from Google. $1.25b Anthropic. Anthropic and Google are now paying @SpaceX a combined $2.17 billon per month for compute capacity. That's a revenue run rate of $26 billion per year.Ron Baron on CNBC Play at 4:00. Other people can’t make rockets and interestingly or less obvious is others can build compute as fast or efficiently as him…. Not to mention AI datacenters in space Extremely fascinating write-up from A16z here.  Gamestop and EBAYRyon Cohen  Taking over Ebay. Listen to this. PoliticsFareed Zakaria on California. Play at 1:10.  Since 2000 population 15% General expenditures grws 200% 78b to 284b. 2021-2024 LA issued 118,000 building permits. Atlanta 136,000. ½ the population. In last 7 years - 1.9m people have left California. Total spending on k-12 has doubled. USAID Funding My response to USAID post and ELON.  As Elon points out if 4.5m children died, would be national headlines.  Only asked for receipts. Govt is a water spigot. Internal Control of public companies is superior.  Play this about helping children.

  6. Jun 13

    SpaceX, SpaceX & SpaceX

    IPO price. $135 Retail. Process.  Allocation. ConfirmationGavin Baker on 4th largest cloud ahead of Oracle.  Jensen likes to give GPu’s to people that can use themBrad Gerstner on how “smart” people lose money. Price target lower by $20. 🤣 Antonio Gracias on SpaceX. $70b stake. Owned by firm. But he’ll hold.  Great interview here.  What is the Kardashev scaleWhy use Chop Sticks. Less weight for legs. Need massive and FAST reusability. Like an Airplane.  Seems obvious. Heaviest, largest flying object. V3 is 2x Saturn 5. V4 5x thrust of Saturn. Expect it to be flying hourly. Like a plane. Local production of “heavy mass objects” on moon. In short need to “mine”. Though he didn’t say that.Will launch satellites into orbit from moon. Near zero cost to launch.Gavin Baker interviewing Bret Johnson CFO of SpaceX Lowest cost by kg to space and 10x improvement with Starship. The core of the company is launch capability. Holy grail is rocket reusability. Logical extension.  Dat center in space No regulatory5x more efficient energy. Free cooling. No land to buy or lease. Kind of doing it already with StarLink Satellite.Wingspan 100 yards1 | Regulatory / Land / Siting | Avoids NIMBY issues and land leases. No “data center in my backyard” problems. 2 | Power / Energy | ~5x+ more energy per solar cell in space (no atmosphere/clouds). Cheaper cells possible (no glass needed in vacuum). Continuous power in proper orbit. 3 | Cooling | Radiative cooling in space is simple and passive (extends Starlink tech). Much easier/cheaper than complex liquid cooling and plumbing on Earth. 4 | Cost Trajectory | Space costs trend down over time (silicon + manufacturing scale/Moore’s Law). Terrestrial data center costs trend up (power, cooling, land, regulatory Here is some perspective on launch capacity and payload of Starship.

  7. Jun 6

    SpaceX, DataCenters, AI, Markets

    OpenGolf tourney tomorrow Choking.  Heimlich maneuverUS Bank Fees $12.50 per $50. That is 25% instantlySo $1000, is 20 * $12.50 = $250. + interest.Reinstate the SAT More than 1,100 University of California math and science professors are urging UC regents to reinstate college-entrance exams, saying that unprepared students are lowering academic standards and draining teaching resources.Today, more than 90% of schools don’t mandate the exams, Feder said.60 minutes Welcome to real life Scott Pelley. New boss, new style. Work or walk. Recommendations:  Bill Ackman Sara Frier Finance folks should know Codex (previously Excel)PanthalassaMarkets: Huge correction today.  Tech down 5%+ and S&P500 2.6%.  The losses intensified after a robust jobs report raised new worries that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates later this year to fight inflation.S&P 500 still up 27% and tech 40-60% YoY.  Huge IPOs coming:  SpaceXAnthropic OpenAICash. Think about your cash investments.  Cash is nice Owning your home is nice. AI & DatacentersGoogle to raise $85 billion  Anthropic IPO In May, Anthropic raised $65 billion in new funding from investors including Greenoaks, Dragoneer, Altimeter Capital and Sequoia Capital, in a round that valued the company at $965 billion. At the same time, the company said its revenue run-rate had surpassed $47 billion, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025LLM usage Grok: no bueno.  Grok and Spreadsheets.  Oh my.Gemini. Good. Claude: BEST. BTW, OpenAI was suspiciously very negative on SpaceX. SpaceX Going public ~June12. Next Friday!? $75b raise at $1.75T valuation.  Float is ~4-5% of total shares $10-18b must be purchased by index funds. More coming out in next 6 months. Employee lockups. Cap table investors want liquidity.Great detail here from Alexandra  IPO Education Hire IB’s.  Allocate to VIPs and whales. 5% to retail.Valuation  Over-valued? Valuation is highly relative to time!!!??  $135 price. $300 price? Either way 10-20x in 10 years.  Not investment advice.AI Opportunity SpaceX is becoming an AI infrastructure play!! Another Rental of Compute from Google to SpaceX.  Anthropic and Google are now paying @SpaceX a combined $2.17 billon per month for compute capacity. That's a revenue run rate of $26 billion per year. BIG MONEY. Jamie Dimon Interview of Elon.    Elon and Dimon  Another link here from  Why SpaceX public now. Play at 4:00min mark: Why fundraising. Embarking on significant growth phase. 100,000 satellites. BTW. Why are datacenters hard if already doing satellites. 100x more bandwidth and ½ latency for v3. He just said that Starlink will be highest bandwidth and lowest latency or ANYTHING!! AI Datacenters in space. Massive capital endeavor. Hard to build power in the US or on land. US usage is 500GW.  To double. Would need to 2x # of power plants. BUT if in space can go far beyond EarthManufacturing on the moon and building beyond 1000TW per year of AI Space ComputeDataCenters in Space Easier than their communication satellites. AI datacenter is EASYElections:  Why does it take so long to count votes? Could take weeks?

5
out of 5
9 Ratings

About

Breakaway from the haters and mainstream thought. Learn about Investing, Finance and the Economy in a plain english and entertaining way. Understand the business environment and make money investing. Uncertainty in the markets driven by crisis, anarchy, politics and craziness is simply opportunity. Facts and truth here.