Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis

Vincent Yuanyi Chang

Understand the big picture for the sake of ourselves email:vychang@alumni.ucdavis.edu B.A. in History and Political Science, University of Claifornia, Davis, 2003 PMP, Project Management I institute, since2007 MBA, Fu-Jen Catholic University, 2008 Powered by Firstory Hosting

  1. The Tragedy of Emperor Fu Jian: A Visionary’s Fall

    1D AGO

    The Tragedy of Emperor Fu Jian: A Visionary’s Fall

    The Visionary’s Curse: 1,600 Years Ahead of ScheduleThe story of Fu Jian (苻堅) is not a simple tale of military defeat; it is the tragedy of Radical Idealism. Ruling in the 4th century, Fu Jian was the closest any leader came to reunifying China during the chaotic Six Kingdoms period. However, he attempted a "Great Leap Forward" in social engineering that the world wasn't ready for: Ethnic Integration.He sought to melt the barriers between the Han Chinese and the various "barbarian" tribes, a concept that wouldn't become a global ideal until the late 20th century. By trying to force this assimilation, he created a "moral overreach." He ignored the deep-seated prejudices of his era, leaving him as a man without a true base—regarded as an outsider by the Han and a traitor to his own roots.The Genius Trap: Systems vs. IndividualsFu Jian’s reign serves as a timeless warning about the fragility of a regime built solely on the brilliance of one man. This is the "Great Man" trap: The Delegation Failure: Being a military and intellectual genius himself, Fu Jian suffered from a lack of "Envisioning Capability" regarding others. He assumed his subordinates were as capable and high-minded as he was. The Flattery Loop: In a system centered on an absolute individual, truth dies. Subordinates become "pleasers" to gain power. You noted a profound psychological truth: those who degrade themselves to please a superior are often the harshest tyrants to those below them. Institutional Fragility: Unlike modern systems that rely on the Rule of Law and standardized procedures (SOPs), Fu Jian’s empire was a "Personal Union." It had no institutional safety net. When his personal judgment failed at the Battle of Fei River (淝水之戰), the entire state apparatus collapsed because it was tied to his individual ego, not a resilient system. The Psychological Collapse at Fei RiverHistory rhymes; just as Cao Cao faced his greatest failure at the Red Cliffs, Fu Jian met his end due to Overconfidence (Hubris). The Battle of Fei River was a psychological defeat before it was a physical one. Because Fu Jian had rushed his integration policies, his massive army lacked a common soul. In the era of cold weaponry and hand-to-hand combat, morale is everything. Once the front line—composed of men who were there out of fear or flattery—wavered, a domino effect occurred. The "Psychology of the Comeback" was impossible because there was no systemic trust to hold the men together. They didn't just lose a battle; they lost the will to exist as a unified force.Final Conclusion: Wisdom in RealityTrue leadership requires the wisdom to balance a Grand Vision with Practical Reality. 1. Step-by-Step Progress: Radical leaps often lead to human disasters. A leader must have the patience to move with the "system" of human nature rather than against it. 2. Self-Knowledge: We must gain the wisdom to know our own limits and the character of those we ask for help. 3. The Right Helpers: Delegation is not just giving orders; it is the ability to see through flattery and find those with the spine to tell the truth.Fu Jian was a hero of high ideals, but his story reminds us that even the greatest genius cannot outrun the reality of the people they lead. Powered by Firstory Hosting

    30 min
  2. The Glass Ceiling of Heroism: Why Zu Ti’s Patriotic Dream Was a "Mission Impossible"

    JAN 27

    The Glass Ceiling of Heroism: Why Zu Ti’s Patriotic Dream Was a "Mission Impossible"

    In the annals of Chinese history, General Zu Ti (祖逖) is the ultimate symbol of determination. We’ve all heard the legend: crossing the Yangtze, beating his oar against the water, and vowing to never return until the North was reclaimed. But if you look past the propaganda, you find a story of systemic sabotage and the brutal physics of 4th-century warfare. 1. The "Geography of Failure": A Logistic Nightmare We often hear the phrase "Easy to Defend, Hard to Attack" (易守難攻). For the Eastern Jin Dynasty, the Yangtze River was a double-edged sword. The Snail’s Pace of War: In 310 AD, long before steam engines, crossing the river was a death trap. Boats moved so slowly that 70% of the crew had to row, leaving only 30% to fight. They were sitting ducks for northern defenders.The Cavalry Gap: The North was the land of nomads; for them, riding a horse was as natural as drinking water. The South, meanwhile, had a tiny population of horsemen. Sending southern infantry to fight northern cavalry on the open plains was like bringing a knife to a tank fight.The Supply Chain Trap: You can jump off a sinking boat, but your grain can’t. One lost supply ship meant a starving army.2. The "Rot of the Elite": Why Peace Was More Profitable Than Victory The most heartbreaking part of Zu Ti’s story wasn't the strength of his enemies, but the apathy of his peers. The Comfort Zone: The southern elites had already "made it." They had their lands, their villas, and their easy money. Why risk everything on a high-stakes war? To them, status quo was a "comparative benefit"—victory offered little, but defeat cost everything.The Second-Class Citizen Problem: If Zu Ti succeeded and reclaimed the North, the northern refugees (who were currently "guests" in the South) would regain their status and land. The southerners would lose their social superiority. They didn't want the North back because it would make them less "precious."3. The "Ugly" Politics: The Sabotage of Success Ancient Chinese politics—much like modern corporate life—has a dark side: If I can’t do it, I won’t let you do it either. Zu Ti was an Idealist. His peers were Realists. If Zu Ti actually succeeded, he would expose everyone else as cowards or traitors. To protect their own reputations, the court "unified" not to fight the enemy, but to "troubleshoot" Zu Ti until he failed. The Modern Takeaway: Negotiating with the "Ghost" As the military classic Gui Guzi (鬼谷子) suggests, greatness isn't just about having the best soldiers; it’s about neutralizing your saboteurs. To achieve a significant goal, you must make deals with those most likely to act against you. Zu Ti’s tragedy was that he had the heart of a lion but lacked the political "diplomacy" to pacify the snakes back home. Summary of the Reflection Zu Ti’s story is a "bitter sarcasm" of history. It proves that determination alone cannot overcome a corrupt system. Whether in an ancient dynasty or a modern company, the greatest threat to a high-performer isn't the competitor across the street—it's the colleague in the next office who is terrified of your success.   Powered by Firstory Hosting

    28 min
  3. China messy and five ethnic groups: Reflections on Mr. Bo Yang's Reinterpretation of Chinese History

    JAN 20

    China messy and five ethnic groups: Reflections on Mr. Bo Yang's Reinterpretation of Chinese History

    This reflection examines historian Bo Yang's revisionist work on the "Five Barbarians" period (五胡乱华), which he deliberately retitled as 华乱五胡 ("China in Chaos, Five Ethnic Groups") to challenge traditional Chinese historical narratives. Bo Yang's Two Main Arguments: Chinese ethnocentrism: Confucianist historians wrongly viewed Chinese civilization as superior and labeled surrounding peoples as "barbarians." Bo Yang argues all humans are equal, and ironically, the Chinese themselves exhibited the most barbaric behavior throughout history—a pattern he sees continuing in modern events in Taiwan and China. Misplaced blame: Traditional histories blamed external ethnic groups for China's chaos, but Bo Yang insists the Chinese brought disaster upon themselves. Using the principle of personal responsibility, he argues that peaceful, well-governed regions don't invite invasion. The surrounding peoples only took advantage of China's self-inflicted chaos—rational behavior akin to "free-riders" exploiting an unguarded system. Historical Context: The chaos began even before Emperor Wu of Jin's death when Empress Jia Nanfeng killed the crown prince, triggering rivalries among royal family members. During this 3-decade period of instability, five (actually more) ethnic groups established regimes in northern China. Rather than merely raiding, many settled permanently, finding it easier to stay than constantly travel. Bo Yang's Provocative Conclusion: He argues there are no "pure" Han Chinese—ethnic integration occurred extensively during and even before the Jin Dynasty. Those who claim Han purity are simply uneducated. The Chinese are among the most ethnically mixed peoples on earth. The Western Jin Dynasty collapsed because royal family members fought exclusively for power, ignoring governance entirely. Eventually, powerful ministerial families from the scholar-gentry class (士族) unified to support Sima Rui, dynasty co-founder Sima Fu’s youngest son, establishing the Eastern Jin Dynasty in Hangzhou—but only after securing veto power over imperial decisions for themselves and future generations. Powered by Firstory Hosting

    32 min
  4. The War of the Thirteen Princes: How Royal Infighting Destroyed the Western Jin Dynasty

    JAN 13

    The War of the Thirteen Princes: How Royal Infighting Destroyed the Western Jin Dynasty

    The War of the Thirteen Princes during the early Jin Dynasty illustrates the dangers of concentrated power without proper checks and balances. Among the thirty royal princes granted territories, Thirteen became especially powerful. However, they were not properly appointed officials but rather royal family members competing for supremacy—a characteristic flaw of autocratic systems where ultimate power enables anyone to do whatever they want, no matter how brutal or ridiculous. This conflict stemmed from decisions made during the dynasty's founding. When Emperor Yuan of Jin (司馬睿) moved the capital south across the Yangtze River to establish the Eastern Jin, it marked a critical turning point. The establishment of the Jin Dynasty itself was built on the foundation laid by Sima Yi (司馬懿) and his descendants. Sima Yi, though highly educated and from a distinguished family, initially lacked strong military control compared to predecessors like Cao Cao. His political success depended heavily on support from his younger brother, Sima Fu (司馬孚)—often considered the true gentleman of pure reputation during that era. Without Sima Fu's support, Sima Yi could never have achieved political dominance, nor could his sons Sima Shi and Sima Zhao have eventually seized power. When Sima Yan (司馬炎) became emperor and founded the Jin Dynasty, he faced a dilemma: how to reward supporters and pacify the realm. He granted enormous territories to his uncles and cousins—in some cases, more land than to his own brothers. This created an unsustainable power structure where royal family members controlled vast military and territorial resources. The tragic irony is that the Jin Dynasty fell into the same trap that allowed them to replace the Cao family: most Cao family members lacked military authority, but the Sima family granted it freely to relatives. Empress Jia Nanfeng's seizure of power and subsequent execution of rival princes triggered a cascade of rebellions among these lord-kings. For nearly three decades, self-proclaimed claimants fought one another while emperors changed rapidly. This internal conflict, confined entirely within the royal family, eventually weakened the dynasty so severely that when the capital moved south under Emperor Yuan, they could only control territories south of the Yangtze River, surrounded by minority ethnic groups in the north. This period demonstrates why republican democracy, electoral systems, and balance of power matter—concepts that may seem difficult to imagine from the perspective of people seventeen hundred years ago, yet their absence led to precisely this kind of destructive chaos. Support this show: https://ckeiik73n1k6i08391xamn9ho.firstory.io/join Leave a comment and share your thoughts: https://open.firstory.me/user/ckeiik73n1k6i08391xamn9ho/comments Powered by Firstory Hosting

    29 min
  5. Reflections on Mr. Bo Yang's Account of the Rebellion of the Thirteen Kings

    JAN 6

    Reflections on Mr. Bo Yang's Account of the Rebellion of the Thirteen Kings

    This essay explores Mr. Bo Yang's unique approach to the "Rebellion of the Eight Kings" in his work Tongjian Jishi Benmo (通鑒紀事本末). Unlike most historians who write from imperial perspectives, Bo Yang reveals deeper truths about why the Western Jin Dynasty collapsed so quickly after its establishment. Two Major Points of Bo Yang's Analysis: 1. The Problem of Official Historiography Traditional court historians were obligated to write history from the emperor's standpoint, creating an inherent bias. For example, officials serving the seventh emperor faced an impossible dilemma when writing about previous rulers—how could they honestly criticize the fifth or sixth emperor without implying disloyalty? This constraint meant that official histories obscured the real causes of dynastic collapse, particularly during chaotic periods like the Rebellion of the Eight Kings. 2. The Commoner's Perspective Bo Yang writes from the common people's viewpoint, applying modern principles of human rights, republicanism, and democracy. Instead of focusing solely on elite power struggles, he examines what drove ordinary people to rebellion. The threshold for rebellion was extraordinarily high. Commoners were occupied with farming—essentially, one household's labor supported another household working in government or military service. People had no spare time and were naturally risk-averse. Even when suffering reached unbearable levels, organizing rebellion was difficult: commoners lacked weapons, training, and the ability to gather sufficient numbers against better-equipped local government guards. The Western Jin Dynasty's Unique Failure: The Western Jin Dynasty was remarkably short-lived compared to previous dynasties—lasting only about 51 years before collapsing into chaos again. This occurred despite the dynasty being established by a powerful family (Sima clan) who had carefully consolidated power over generations. The root cause was systemic hypocrisy within Confucian governance. The principle of "tianxia wei gong" (天下為公—"the world belongs to everyone") was merely rhetoric. In reality, the elite class—officials and aristocrats—exploited common people for their own benefit. They lacked any concept of the nation-state; their only concern was personal gain and family interests. The Military System's Fatal Flaw: During the Western Jin period, there were no professional soldiers. Most guards were recruited from those who could read and write but didn't want to farm—essentially people seeking easy employment. Military service was looked down upon, so connections and family background determined appointments rather than merit. This created an army with no loyalty to the common people and no hesitation about harming them. Conclusion: Bo Yang's analysis reveals that the Western Jin's collapse was not merely about the Rebellion of the Eight Kings, but about a fundamentally flawed system. The transition from pure Confucianism to multiple belief systems (including Buddhism and Daoism) contributed to ideological instability, which, combined with exploitative governance, led to complete chaos just two or three decades after the dynasty's establishment. We should appreciate living in an era with concepts of nation-states, republics, democracy, and human rights—governments genuinely accountable to the people, by the people, and for the people. This is the essential lesson history teaches us.   Powered by Firstory Hosting

    31 min
  6. The Tragic Destiny of the Cao Family: Sentimentality and the Inevitable Fall of the Wei Dynasty

    12/30/2025

    The Tragic Destiny of the Cao Family: Sentimentality and the Inevitable Fall of the Wei Dynasty

    My reflection on reading the Zizhi Tongjian (資治通鉴), which chronicles the Three Kingdoms era of ancient China, leads me to appreciate how fortunate we are today. We live in a republic with a democratic system, division of labor, and balance of power—things that simply didn't exist in ancient times. Today I want to discuss the inevitable collapse of the Wei (魏) dynasty, which traces back to its very foundation. The Paradox of Cao Cao's Genius Cao Cao (曹操) formally established the empire's foundation, enabling his son Cao Pi (曹丕) to force the emperor to abdicate. But here lies the tragedy: both father and sons were multi-talented geniuses, and therein lay their fatal flaw. Geniuses excel at multiple things simultaneously, which becomes extremely difficult to balance. Cao Cao was an excellent statesman, outstanding literary figure, skilled in martial arts, and possessed remarkable leadership. His son Cao Pi inherited these gifts—brilliant in politics and literature—while his other son Cao Zhi (曹植) was perhaps the most tragic figure, a literary genius trapped by political circumstance. The Fatal Flaw: Sentimentality The Cao family's greatest contradiction was being both rational statesmen and deeply sentimental artists. How could someone write such beautiful poetry without profound sentiment? Yet this very sentimentality proved fatal. Compare Cao Cao with Sima Yi (司馬懿), who later established his own dynasty and unified the nation. Sima Yi was educated but utterly unsentimental—historical records show no poetry from him. He could order massacres without hesitation, as when he eliminated Gongsun Yuan (公孫淵) in the northeast, killing thirty thousand people to create terror that would prevent future rebellions. A sentimental person could never order such killings. But to maintain power in feudal times, ruthlessness toward everyone—including family members—was essential. Cao Pi's Burden After Cao Pi claimed the throne, he faced enormous tragedy. Drawn into political conflicts while still pursuing his writing, he became overburdened and died young, around his forties. Though he gave his brother Cao Zhi cruel tests (like the famous "seven-step poem"), he ultimately gave him opportunities—revealing his own sentimental nature despite his political acumen. This emotional side caused problems: he would get drunk before important events, sometimes not even showing up. The Pattern of Decline This contradictory characteristic—excelling at both rational politics and emotional literature—created an impossible tension. Even with intentions to unify the nation, at critical moments they couldn't stand firm and act decisively. This allowed the Sima family to gradually seize control. The Sima family understood that in those chaotic times, there was no right or wrong—only power. They would do anything to maintain control. Meanwhile, though Cao Pi forced the emperor down and ruled for decades, and his son became emperor for thirty years, they couldn't capitalize on their strength. Perhaps there's truth in the Chinese saying: "Born in hardship, die in comfort" (生於憂患,死於安樂). Cao Cao wanted to unify the nation; his son probably wanted it less; his grandson perhaps didn't care at all. Despite being the largest and most powerful kingdom, they lacked the ruthless ambition of the Sima family. The Inevitable Conclusion Perhaps another tragedy was that successive generations no longer maintained the balance or remembered the ordinary people—abandoning Cao Cao's original plan. They became too sentimental compared to the Sima family's calculated ruthlessness. Even if later Cao descendants wanted to act, they lacked the talent and ability. Eventually, they were replaced by the Sima family. In the end, as the saying goes: "The beginning determines the end" (始已註定終). The Cao family's fate was sealed from the very start—their greatest strength, their humanity and sentimentality, became the weakness that destroyed them.   Powered by Firstory Hosting

    31 min
  7. Zhuge Liang and Liu Shan: Idealism Versus Pragmatism in the Shu Han Kingdom

    12/26/2025

    Zhuge Liang and Liu Shan: Idealism Versus Pragmatism in the Shu Han Kingdom

    This analysis examines two pivotal figures of the Shu Han kingdom: Zhuge Liang and Emperor Liu Shan (劉禪). Popular understanding of these figures has been heavily influenced by the novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms, which often distorts their true historical characters. Zhuge Liang: The Uncompromising Idealist Zhuge Liang was undeniably a remarkable figure with an admirable yet ultimately impractical vision: to revive the Han Empire. He devoted himself completely to this goal from a collectivist perspective, willing to sacrifice anything—lives, resources, and the welfare of his people—to achieve his dream of restoring an empire that had fallen eight hundred years prior. While his principles might have been acceptable by first-century standards, his approach was fundamentally flawed. The Brutal Reality of Northern Campaigns During the cold weapon era, numerical superiority was crucial. As Sun Tzu wrote, if your forces are ten times the enemy's, surround them; if five times, attack them. Zhuge Liang launched multiple northern expeditions against Wei, despite Shu Han's severe disadvantages: Territory: Wei controlled six parts of the land, Wu controlled two parts, and Shu Han held only one partPopulation: Wei had approximately 4.5 million people with 1.03 million households; Wu had 2.3 million people with 520,000 households; Shu Han had merely 940,000 people with 200,000 householdsMilitary burden: Shu Han conducted eleven northern campaigns, imposing an enormous burden on its small populationThe campaigns devastated agricultural production. Men were conscripted as soldiers, women were forced into military service and support roles, and the brutal practice of burning enemy fields after victories meant no crop production for years. This created a vicious cycle of resource depletion that Shu Han could not sustain. Liu Shan: The Pragmatic Ruler In contrast, Emperor Liu Shan demonstrated greater wisdom and practicality. He understood the impossible odds and showed remarkable courage in his decisions. When faced with inevitable defeat, he surrendered without resistance to save his people's lives—a decision requiring tremendous courage despite damaging his own reputation. Liu Shan also maintained a delicate balance of power between Zhuge Liang's faction and local interest groups, preventing internal conflicts that could have destroyed the kingdom even sooner. He tolerated criticisms and kept a low profile, showing political acumen that is often underestimated. Conclusion: The Struggle Between Idealism and Reality From both geographical and strategic perspectives, Zhuge Liang's vision was impractical and idealistic, while Liu Shan was pragmatic and realistic. The fall of Shu Han was inevitable given the resource disparity and the changing nature of loyalty after nearly two hundred years of chaos. The kingdom's story exemplifies the eternal struggle between noble ideals and harsh reality—and serves as a reminder that even the most admirable goals cannot overcome insurmountable practical obstacles. Powered by Firstory Hosting

    29 min
  8. The Fall of Guan Yu and the Breakdown of the Sun-Liu Alliance

    12/20/2025

    The Fall of Guan Yu and the Breakdown of the Sun-Liu Alliance

    Summary This reflection examines a critical period in Three Kingdoms history following the Battle of Red Cliffs (208 CE). The analysis focuses on how Cao Pi's ascension to power in 220 CE—after forcing Emperor Xian to abdicate—destabilized the regional balance of power and ultimately led to the collapse of the alliance between Liu Bei's Shu Han and Sun Quan's Eastern Wu (Dongwu). Key Events: Strategic Maneuvering: Cao Pi's advisers suggested granting Sun Quan an official title to legitimize his territory, aiming to prevent him from supporting Liu Bei. Despite initial humiliation, Sun Quan's acceptance of this title demonstrated pragmatic leadership—he recognized the strategic value of nominal recognition from the north. The Jingzhou Problem: The root of conflict lay in longstanding territorial disputes over Jingzhou. Liu Bei had promised to return this region to Sun Quan years earlier but never honored this agreement. Instead, he appointed Guan Yu as governor, creating an unstable situation with competing claims. Guan Yu's Weaknesses: While Guan Yu excelled as a warrior in one-on-one combat, he proved inadequate as a regional administrator. His arrogance, poor treatment of subordinates, and lack of political acumen made him vulnerable. His decision to attack the north while leaving Jingzhou poorly defended was a critical tactical error. Sun Quan's Calculated Strike: Eastern Wu forces, led by Lü Meng, recaptured Jingzhou with minimal casualties while Guan Yu was engaged in the north. When Guan Yu rushed back exhausted, he was captured and faced execution. Sun Quan's dilemma—whether to kill Liu Bei's sworn brother—was resolved when Guan Yu died, though the exact circumstances remain historically ambiguous. Liu Bei's Response: Liu Bei's subsequent attack on Eastern Wu appeared to be revenge for Guan Yu's death, but the analysis suggests deeper motivations. Liu Bei may have allowed Guan Yu's fall deliberately, as Guan Yu's insubordination had become problematic. The campaign served to maintain Liu Bei's reputation for loyalty while eliminating a troublesome subordinate. Historical Reassessment: The analysis challenges traditional portrayals (particularly from Romance of the Three Kingdoms) that depict Sun Quan as weak or incompetent. Instead, it argues that Sun Quan demonstrated exceptional wisdom and leadership by knowing when to yield and when to strike—qualities that enabled him to rule for the longest period of any Three Kingdoms emperor. Conclusion This episode illustrates how personal relationships, territorial disputes, and political pragmatism intersected during the Three Kingdoms period. Sun Quan's recapture of Jingzhou not only eliminated a powerful general and reclaimed ancestral territory but also exposed the limitations of Liu Bei's brotherhood rhetoric, revealing the harsh political realities beneath idealistic appeals to loyalty.   Powered by Firstory Hosting

    39 min

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Understand the big picture for the sake of ourselves email:vychang@alumni.ucdavis.edu B.A. in History and Political Science, University of Claifornia, Davis, 2003 PMP, Project Management I institute, since2007 MBA, Fu-Jen Catholic University, 2008 Powered by Firstory Hosting