Conflict & Terrorism Studies with Wisdom

Wisdom Iyekekpolo

This podcast is on Conflict and Terrorism Studies. It discusses and reviews articles and books published by researchers in this Political Science and International Relations subdiscipline.

  1. 06/27/2021

    Entity-Elimination or Threat Management? Explaining Israel’s Shifting Policies Towards Terrorist Semi-States by Ido Yahel & Or Honig

    ABSTRACT Israel’s policy towards both terrorist semi-states (TSS)—Fatahland and Hamas-controlled Gaza—shows a puzzling variation over time between threat-management (i.e., deterrence and/or brute force capacity-reduction) and entity-elimination. We hold that a military-based cost-benefit analysis cannot fully account for this variation. This explanation predicts that Israel would avoid the costly and risky TSS-elimination as long as Israel can effectively manage the military danger through the much cheaper deterrence/periodical capacity reduction or when there is a high risk of not getting a much better option partly due to the danger of creating a power-vacuum into which other terrorists may reenter. Yet, some Israeli Prime Ministers pursued TSS-elimination notwithstanding the vacuum consideration and deterrence working. By adding a non-military variable—the extent to which Israel’s policy-makers believe that the TSS harms their ideologically-preferred foreign policy goals—we can better reconstruct changes in threat perception and hence better explain policy variation. The TSSs became an intolerable danger only when non-military threats were involved. Israel was willing to tolerate TSSs when the Prime Minister believed they did not pose a political/ideological threat but sought to eliminate them when he thought they did, if there seemed to be a feasible alternative. Honig, Or, and Ido Yahel. "Entity-Elimination or Threat Management? Explaining Israel’s Shifting Policies Towards Terrorist Semi-States." Terrorism and political violence 32.5 (2020): 901-920.

    23 min
  2. Merchants of Terror: Neo-Patrimonialism, Counterterrorism Economy, and Expansion of Terrorism in Nigeria by Emeka Thaddues Njoku

    04/23/2021

    Merchants of Terror: Neo-Patrimonialism, Counterterrorism Economy, and Expansion of Terrorism in Nigeria by Emeka Thaddues Njoku

    Please subscribe to your preferred podcast platform; we are available on Apple, Google, Spotify, and 6 others. https://anchor.fm/wisdom-iyekekpolo Also subscribe and comment on our Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiBmLNnt0FcYeLFg9_E9z4w https://www.facebook.com/Conflict-Terrorism-Studies-with-Wisdom-106729171499245 Contact: w.iyekekpolo@auckland.ac.nz Abstract How can neo-patrimonialism aid our understanding of the materiality of counterterrorism and the expansion of terrorism? While previous works on the growth of terrorism have focused on issues such as the spread of radical religious ideology, US foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and poverty, recent works have examined factors such as the formation of linkages with other terrorist groups, fragmentation into cell-structures, forming of franchises, and exploitation of clannism and ethnicity. However, studies that interrogate the rentier nature of African and MENA region security institutions and its implications for the rise of terrorism are yet to be accounted for. This article draws from field research done in Nigeria between 2015 and 2019. It traced the expansion of terrorism in Nigeria to the neo-patrimonial systems inherent in security and political institutions, which are engaged in corrupt financial practices that breed a counterterrorism economy. Njoku, Emeka Thaddues. "Merchants of Terror: Neo-Patrimonialism, Counterterrorism Economy, and Expansion of Terrorism in Nigeria." African Conflict and Peacebuilding Review 10, no. 2 (2020): 83-107.

    24 min
  3. De-Talibanization and the Onset of Insurgency in Afghanistan. - Tricia Bacon and Daniel Byman.

    04/16/2021

    De-Talibanization and the Onset of Insurgency in Afghanistan. - Tricia Bacon and Daniel Byman.

    Please subscribe to your preferred podcast platform; we are available on Apple, Google, Spotify and 6 others. https://anchor.fm/wisdom-iyekekpolo Also subscribe and comment on our Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiBmLNnt0FcYeLFg9_E9z4w https://www.facebook.com/Conflict-Terrorism-Studies-with-Wisdom-106729171499245 Contact: w.iyekekpolo@auckland.ac.nz Abstract This article examines the reasons for the rise of the Taliban and the onset of the insurgency in Afghanistan after the 2001 U.S. invasion, using counterfactual and path dependence analysis to bolster its arguments. We argue that the U.S. decision to de-Talibanize was a critical juncture, after which the rise of insurgency was far harder to prevent. The total rejection of the Taliban translated into the under-representation of Pashtuns in the Afghan government, delivering power to ethnic minorities at their expense. De-Talibanization led the United States to support strongmen to hunt the Taliban, but they were predatory, creating grievances that the Taliban exploited to recruit. Finally, de-Talibanization led many Taliban to flee to Pakistan, pushing them into the country most opposed to Afghanistan new political order. The lessons of the U.S. experience in Afghanistan suggest the necessity of a strategy for managing defeated enemies after an initial military victory. - Bacon, Tricia, and Daniel Byman. "De-Talibanization and the Onset of Insurgency in Afghanistan." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2021): 1-25.

    20 min
  4. When to Take Credit for Terrorism? A Cross-National Examination of Claims and Attributions - Dr Erin M. Kearns

    04/02/2021

    When to Take Credit for Terrorism? A Cross-National Examination of Claims and Attributions - Dr Erin M. Kearns

    Please subscribe to your preferred podcast platform; we are available on Apple, Google, Spotify and 6 others. https://anchor.fm/wisdom-iyekekpolo Also subscribe and comment on our Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiBmLNnt0FcYeLFg9_E9z4w Contact: w.iyekekpolo@auckland.ac.nz ABSTRACT Rationalist research expects that groups claim credit for terrorism. Yet, the vast majority of attacks are not claimed. Of the unclaimed attacks, about half are attributed to a specific group. What factors impact claiming decisions? While extant literature largely treats claiming as binary—either claimed or not—the present study disaggregates claiming decisions further to also consider attacks with attributions of credit but no claim, using data from 160 countries between 1998 and 2016. Both attack-level and situational factors impact claiming decisions. Disaggregating claiming behavior shows meaningful differences. Specifically, competitive environments and suicide attacks increase claims but not attributions. Higher fatalities in general increase both claims and attributions, but when the target is civilian attributions decrease with a high body count whereas claims increase. Further, while the directional impact of other variables is the same, the magnitude of their effects vary between claims and attributions. Results are robust across modeling specifications. Findings demonstrate that our understanding of claiming behaviors is limited when claiming is treated as dichotomous. This study provides further insight into factors that impact claiming decisions for terrorism. Results can address data issues in academic research and inform counterterrorism responses.

    17 min

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This podcast is on Conflict and Terrorism Studies. It discusses and reviews articles and books published by researchers in this Political Science and International Relations subdiscipline.